Alberta NDP Seat Predictions?

I think that it is a bit early to be making predictions. If the NDP numbers consolidate into the high 30s a majority is possible but a more likely result, given the concentration of votes in Edmonton, would be a plurality. If the surge continues with the NDP popular vote in the low 40s on election night, it could be a rather incredible landslide seatwise as vote splits in regions normally considered an NDP wasteland could result in some unlikely wins even without much of a ground game. The Alberta Party may have a chance at Calgary Elbow. What I would like to see is that the combined total of the WR and PC are short of a majority so that even if the NDP are a couple short there will be enough Liberals and/or Alberta Party seats to hold the balance of power. 

It bothers me how poor the reporting has been on the Alberta election. The situation right now is analogous to the 1980s when the NDP formed official opposition. Essentially, the pattern in Alberta politics is that the PCs (or Socreds etc) amass large majorities during boom times and get reduced to weak majorities during bust times. The fortunes of the governing majority rides on oil prices.

The NDP is going to win close to 25 seats and form the official opposition for the first time since the 1980s. The NDP's seats are going to follow the same pattern as those of the 1980s, that is virtually all of them will be in Edmonton with a few in Calgary and possibly a few outside of the two major cities (i.e. one in Lethbridge). 

There are three political blocks in Alberta: conservatives, conservative populists, and progressives. Unite two, and you win power. The only time the NDP was government is when the progressive precursors to the CCF coalesced with the conservative populist United Farmers of Alberta to form government during the Great Depression.

Today, the PCs are in the process of squeezing out the Wildrose by playing to conservative populists' fear of an NDP government. The PCs just need to reduce the Wildrose vote a little in order to carry enough seats in rural Alberta and Calgary to win a 13th term. The NDP is helping them through its tempered approach on pipelines. The whole ethos of Alberta politics, especially at the level of the working class is "jobs" and jobs at all cost. People in Alberta believe in prosperity and prosperity is not supposed to end. It is supposed to go on, it is supposed to be the given, and it is supposed ot go on at all costs. Otherwise, why did people move West and furthermore, why should people that grew up in the midst of all this wealth expect anything new now?

So yeah, look for a tightening of the race leading up to election day, but most crucially look for the gap between the PCs and Wildrose in the areas the PCs need to win (everywhere but Edmonton).

The NDP is about to win a strong opposition, but they are still far off from the halls of government.

josh wrote:

308's newest seat projection:

 

NDP  39

PC  29

WR  16

Lib  3

 

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/04/ndp-leads-beyond-reasonable-doubt.html?spref=tw

Interesting to see Wild Rose fading a bit in the polls, and the NDP doing so well outside of Edmonton. I think the WR may be concentrated like last election in Southern Alberta, and with the Conservatives support spread out over the province, they may win enough seats to win opposition but not enough for a minority and certainly not a majority unless WR collapses and goes to the Conservatives. I will say that it doesn't seem like WR has run much of a campaign, while the NDP campaign has been excellent and the Conservatives are dogged by scandal and mistakes.

Policywonk wrote:

josh wrote:

308's newest seat projection:

 

NDP  39

PC  29

WR  16

Lib  3

 

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/04/ndp-leads-beyond-reasonable-doubt.html?spref=tw

Interesting to see Wild Rose fading a bit in the polls, and the NDP doing so well outside of Edmonton. I think the WR may be concentrated like last election in Southern Alberta, and with the Conservatives support spread out over the province, they may win enough seats to win opposition but not enough for a minority and certainly not a majority unless WR collapses and goes to the Conservatives. I will say that it doesn't seem like WR has run much of a campaign, while the NDP campaign has been excellent and the Conservatives are dogged by scandal and mistakes.

I think it more likely the Alberta Party would win a seat than the Liberals win three.

jjuares wrote:

Orangutan wrote:

Most of the resent polls have the Wildrose ahead of the PCs.  Disagree with ThreeHundredEight's prediction.  

With regards to the NDP forming the government or the official opposition, I think government is far more likely at this point.  Watch many rural seats, esp. in Northern and Central Alberta, go NDP.  Add to that at least 4-8 seats in Calgary and a sweep of Edmonton.  

 

Alberta is changing.  It is the youngest province.  More and more immigrants, from both outside the country and from other provinces are moving to Alberta.  

I am having trouble getting the NDP seat count past 35 so I am not sure about anything.

Vote splits will make things really interesting. It's not clear to conservatives how to stop the NDP, vote PC or vote WR. It is clear what Party to vote for to unequivocably beat the PCs. That could lead to many really unexpected seats going NDP, or the PCs or WR just barely winning seats. Unless the WR vote collapses to the PCs, I think the NDP will have at least a strong plurality if not a solid majority. 

308 now forecasting 52 seats for the NDP

Tks Winston both for volunteering and for the feedback

Winston wrote:

Just got back from working the campaign in Alberta (where I grew up), and I have to say I have drunk the orange kool-aid. Something is happening in Alberta, and it's going to be big.

Collecting marks in an until recently "no-hope" riding, there were polls where I couldn't find a single 4. When our cab driver found out we were working the campaign, he asked to help out, then gave us our cab ride free. Random people walk up to you in the street and offer to donate. This is not happening just in Edmonton - it is happening in every region of the province. Notley-mania feels as big or bigger than Layton-mania was in Quebec.

I have no specific prediction on seat totals, but I think it might be a landslide, with a Wildrose Opposition and the Tories reduced to a half-dozen seats or less. 

Could you please explain this to me? I understand the no-hope part but the rest confuses me.

WR - 43

NDP - 24

PCs - 16

Libs - 3

Other - 1

NDP 44

PC 23

WR 17

L 2

NDP: 49-52

PC: 6-8

AP: 1

Wild Rose: 20-whatever's left over.

After the 2019 election, Wild Rose will absorb the dregs of the PC's.

Winston wrote:

Just got back from working the campaign in Alberta (where I grew up), and I have to say I have drunk the orange kool-aid. Something is happening in Alberta, and it's going to be big.

Collecting marks in an until recently "no-hope" riding, there were polls where I couldn't find a single 4. When our cab driver found out we were working the campaign, he asked to help out, then gave us our cab ride free. Random people walk up to you in the street and offer to donate. This is not happening just in Edmonton - it is happening in every region of the province. Notley-mania feels as big or bigger than Layton-mania was in Quebec.

I have no specific prediction on seat totals, but I think it might be a landslide, with a Wildrose Opposition and the Tories reduced to a half-dozen seats or less. 

This is one of the things I dont get. She's a newcomer where Layton took years and multiple elections to get known and create a fan base. She seems to be getting that rave effect almost right out of the gate. Whats the secret sauce?

NDP                       48

Wild Rose               28

PC        9

AB          1

Lib                           1  

Total       87

Here goes:

NDP 64

WR 14

PC   8

AP    1

Lib   0

What seat projections did Forum forecast?

Don't forget to make your seat projections for those of you who have not yet done so.

This is truly amazin' 

Forum Research seat forecast as of this morning:

NDP - 69 seats

WR - 16 seats

PC - 2 seats

(44 seats required for majority)

josh wrote:

308's newest seat projection:

 

NDP  39

PC  29

WR  16

Lib  3

 

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/04/ndp-leads-beyond-reasonable-doubt.html?spref=tw

Three Hundred and Eight remains a completely unscientific and statistically suspect aggregator that depends on somewhat scientific but also suspect polling data, amassed using completely different polling methodologies. The prediction for the 2011 election being an good example of how little credit should be given to it.

It is however, very nice looking and provides authoritative charts for entertainment purposes, and should be treated as such.

It will be interesting to see how far off they are this time, however. I don't see the NDP getting more than 35 seats, and I predicted 30, right otf the top of my head and on gut instinct alone.

Let's see who is better at it on Tuesday.

Rokossovsky wrote:

It will be interesting to see how far off they are this time, however. I don't see the NDP getting more than 35 seats, and I predicted 30, right otf the top of my head and on gut instinct alone. Let's see who is better at it on Tuesday.

In politics, always hope for the best... but always expect the worst. 

That said, I know someone politically involved who will be voting NDP for the first time in their life and I trust this person's judgment. This individual resides in the riding of Edmonton-Riverview. 308 forecasts/projects Edmonton-Riverview outcome as follows:

NDP: 62.7%
PC: 16.1%
Lib: 9.5%
Green: 6.3% 

Yet this same individual residing in this riding has just advised me that Lib candidate Donna Wilson is winning the lawn sign race there by quite a large margin. Can anyone else on the ground there corroborate same?

Because if that is the case something does not make any sense here. At all. With such conflicting evidence.

1) Do the Liberals always ask permission before putting up lawn signs?

2) Aren't people who would vote Liberal usually wealthier(and thus more likely to own private homes with lawns than people who vote or consider voting NDP?

3) Are most apartment complex managers going to be ok with their tenants putting up NDP signage?

He's a Liberal.  

The desperation amongst Liberals to try and prevent an an NDP government in Alberta is hilarious but understandable as they well know the possible federal consequences.

Just like the press fronts for the Liberals and Conservatives, 99 per cent of all the political websites and blogs in Canada are just fronting for the Liberals and and the Conservatives as well.

NorthReport wrote:

He's a Liberal.  

The desperation amongst Liberals to try and prevent an an NDP government in Alberta is hilarious but understandable as they well know the possible federal consequences.

Just like the press fronts for the Liberals and Conservatives, 99 per cent of all the political websites and blogs in Canada are just fronting for the Liberals and and the Conservatives as well.

You've also said in the past that Forum Research and Ekos are part of the Liberal plot too. In fact, any pollster that has a result you don't like on a particular day is part of the Great Liberal Conspiracy.

Because we are right-wingers and this is what we do!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxBMT0rH9hU&feature=relmfu

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKFTtYx2OHc

Does anyone have the slightest idea what their track record is?

Blunt objects

About the Authors
Kyle HuttonKyle Hutton, 24, is from Burlington, Ontario, and has been active in Liberal circles since 2008, working as a volunteer (usually as a canvasser) on the campaigns of Paddy Torsney, Alyssa Brierley, Karmel Sakran, and Eleanor McMahon. Currently serves as VP Comms for the Burlington Federal Liberals, and a former president of the Burlington Young Liberals. Hobbyist phesphologist.

Feel free to contact about any inquires, including services such as poll maps, at khutton1[squiggly-at-symbol]live.ca

Teddy Boragina Teddy Boragina, born Nicholas Joshua Sylvio Ferdinando Boragina, has lived in Ontario and Prince Edward Island.
Teddy has been a member of the Liberal Party no less than three times, being a member of the N.D.P. and Conservatives in between. Teddy has always felt the Liberals were his natural home.
Teddy is 30 and was born in Scarborough Ontario. At age 10 he moved to Prince Edward Island where he grew up, and at age 20, after growing up, he returned to Toronto to seek quality employment

One too many!