PEI Election 2015
Predictions?
Does the NDP (or Greens for that matter) have a chance at gaining any seats?
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PEI election 2015
Thu, 2015-04-30 01:50
#1
PEI election 2015
Thu, 2015-04-30 01:51
#2
NDP has a chance in two seats from what I've read: Montague-Kilmuir and Charlottetown-Lewis_Point
Green Party leader is appearantly leading according to a riding poll in Kellys Cross-Cumberland
Thu, 2015-04-30 08:15
#3
Did we need a new PEI politics thread?
Thu, 2015-04-30 20:15
#4
The PEI election debate is being rebroadcast several times, in case anyone is interested.
The Guardian’s Decision ’15 Leaders’ Debate airs tonight at 7 p.m. live on EastLink TV.
Eastlink will rebroadcast the debate Saturday, May 2 at 2 pm, Ch. 10 and Ch. 610 for Eastlink subscribers.
CPAC, Canada's parliamentary channel, will broadcast the debate nationally on Saturday at 7 p.m. AT and on Sunday 8:30 p.m. AT.
http://www.theguardian.pe.ca/News/Local/2015-04-30/article-4130069/Guard...
Fri, 2015-05-01 14:35
#5
NDP has a chance in two seats from what I've read: Montague-Kilmuir and Charlottetown-Lewis_Point
Green Party leader is appearantly leading according to a riding poll in Kellys Cross-Cumberland
Hopefully it won't turn out like New Brunswick (NDP shut out and Greens 1 seat with less popular vote). 2 and one would be nice.
Fri, 2015-05-01 14:38
#6
People have been wondering about the impact of the Alberta Election on the federal election. I wonder if it looks like a Liberal landslide in PEI that more people might consider voting for someone other than the Liberals or Conservatives.
Sun, 2015-05-03 23:16
#7
NDP seem likely to be shut-out from everything I've read, including this: http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/prince-edward-island-votes/districts-2-...
Mike Redmond made a stupid move switching from the seat he had been campaigning for a year in Charlottetown to Montague (where he now lives and his family is from). He is running against a Liberal incumbent in the most Conservative part of the province. He will likely be squeezed out.
His performance in the debate was voted the worst by most polls and critics. I watched the debate myself and felt that he would win the "who would you most like to have a beer with" contest, but not the confidence of voters to lead a province. This situation is unfortunate as under his leadership the NDP was polling in 2nd for sometime.
The only other NDP candidate with a chance of winning, Gord McNeilly, is running in Charlottletown-Lewis Point. If elected, he would be the first non-white person to ever be elected on PEI. But he too is running against a Liberal incumbent.
While the NDP will regain the '3rd party' status in the vote totals from the Green Party (as they are running a full slate), the Green Party seem to poised to gain a seat. This will be an almost identical situation from the New Brunswick election last year.
Mon, 2015-05-04 01:05
#8
The only other NDP candidate with a chance of winning, Gord McNeilly, is running in Charlottletown-Lewis Point. If elected, he would be the first non-white person to ever be elected on PEI. But he too is running against a Liberal incumbent.
Joe and Robert Ghiz, both former Liberal Premiers of PEi, are partly Lebanese, which is non-Caucasian.
Mon, 2015-05-04 13:43
#9
The only other NDP candidate with a chance of winning, Gord McNeilly, is running in Charlottletown-Lewis Point. If elected, he would be the first non-white person to ever be elected on PEI. But he too is running against a Liberal incumbent.
Joe and Robert Ghiz, both former Liberal Premiers of PEi, are partly Lebanese, which is non-Caucasian.
To the extent that Caucasian means anything (the validity of the term is disputed by many anthropologists) Lebanese are Semetic Caucasian people.
Mon, 2015-05-04 18:11
#10
Election Results:
http://www.cbc.ca/includes/provincialelections/peivotes2015/dashboard/
Mon, 2015-05-04 18:12
#11
LEADING
LIB - 7 (48%)
PC - 1 (37%)
NDP - 0 (10%)
Mon, 2015-05-04 18:22
#12
LEADING
LIB - 9 (48%)
PC - 2 (38%)
NDP - 0 (9%)
Mon, 2015-05-04 18:31
#13
LEADING
LIB - 11 (46%)
PC - 5 (38%)
NDP - 0 (10%)
Mon, 2015-05-04 18:35
#14
LEADING
LIB - 14 (45%)
PC - 6 (39%)
NDP - 0 (10%)
GPC - 0 (6%)
Mon, 2015-05-04 18:39
#15
NDP Gord McNeilly leads LIB Kathleen Casey by 14 votes in Charlottetown-Lewis Point.
Mon, 2015-05-04 18:40
#16
LEADING
LIB - 15 (45%)
PC - 6 (38%)
NDP - 1 (10%)
GPC - 0 (7%)
Mon, 2015-05-04 18:43
#17
LIB - 17 (44%)
PC - 6 (38%)
NDP - 1 (10%)
GPC - 0 (6%)
Mon, 2015-05-04 18:46
#18
LIB - 18 (44%)
PC - 6 (38%)
NDP - 1 (11%)
GPC - 0 (6%)
Mon, 2015-05-04 18:47
#19
Gord McNeilly winning by 30 votes with 5/13 polls
Mon, 2015-05-04 18:49
#20
Mike Redmond trailing by 9 votes with 1/10 polls
Mon, 2015-05-04 18:53
#21
Gord McNeilly winning by 30 votes with 5/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 74 votes with 6/13 polls
Mon, 2015-05-04 18:56
#22
Mike Redmond trailing by 9 votes with 1/10 polls
Trailing by 41 votes with 3/10 polls
Mon, 2015-05-04 18:59
#23
6/13 polls
NDP still leads in CHARLOTTETOWN-LEWIS POINT
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:00
#24
PC Leader Rob Lantz still trailing to Liberal Jordan Brown 667 -597
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:00
#25
Mike Redmond trailing by 9 votes with 1/10 polls
Trailing by 41 votes with 3/10 polls
Trailing by 26 votes with 4/10 polls
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:00
#26
NDP McNeilly extending lead 281 to 207 over Liberal Casey in Charlottetown -Lewis Point
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:01
#27
Gord McNeilly winning by 30 votes with 5/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 74 votes with 6/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 74 votes with 7/13 polls
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:02
#28
Gord McNeilly winning by 30 votes with 5/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 74 votes with 6/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 74 votes with 7/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 103 votes with 8/13 polls
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:03
#29
Popular vote is getting tighter one hour in 43% Liberal and 38% PC, Libs lead 17 and Tories 7
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:04
#30
Wonder if PEI NDP is getting a bump in support from the Alberta surge?
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:06
#31
It's impressive for a new leader like Wade MacLauchlan to win an election tonight, and also make history as the first gay PEI Premier, but it's obviously not as big a win as originally predicted.
NDP & GPC each taking a chunk of the vote.
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:09
#32
Gord McNeilly winning by 30 votes with 5/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 74 votes with 6/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 74 votes with 7/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 103 votes with 8/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 122 votes with 9/13 polls
This one is almost ready to call. Is the PEI NDP returning to the legislature?
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:10
#33
Gord McNeilly winning by 30 votes with 5/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 74 votes with 6/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 74 votes with 7/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 103 votes with 8/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 122 votes with 9/13 polls
This one is almost ready to call. Is the PEI NDP returning to the legislature?
Gord McNeilly winning by 125 votes with 10/13 polls
I'm calling it. Gord McNeilly will be the NDP MLA for Charlottetown - Lewis Point
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:18
#34
Mike Redmond trailing by 9 votes with 1/10 polls
Trailing by 41 votes with 3/10 polls
Trailing by 26 votes with 4/10 polls
Trailing by 61 votes with 5/10 polls *correction: 66 votes
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:20
#35
Mathematically, there appears to be no way that Gord McNeilly can lose.
There aren't enough votes left to catch him.
So NDP will win Charlottetown-Lewis Point.
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:21
#36
PC Leader Lantz continues to trail.
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:21
#37
Gord McNeilly winning by 30 votes with 5/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 74 votes with 6/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 74 votes with 7/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 103 votes with 8/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 122 votes with 9/13 polls
This one is almost ready to call. Is the PEI NDP returning to the legislature?
Gord McNeilly winning by 125 votes with 10/13 polls
I'm calling it. Gord McNeilly will be the NDP MLA for Charlottetown - Lewis Point
Notably, he has won 8/10 reported polls so far.
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:22
#38
Looks like the PC leader will lose.
Not sure why he chose to run in Charlottetown - it's the most left-wing area of PEI.
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:24
#39
Mike Redmond trailing by 9 votes with 1/10 polls
Trailing by 41 votes with 3/10 polls
Trailing by 26 votes with 4/10 polls
Trailing by 61 votes with 5/10 polls *correction: 66 votes
Trailing by 84 votes with 6/10 polls. I don't think he is going to catch the incumbent.
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:27
#40
NDP Gord McNeilly is leading by 125 votes with 10/13 polls reporting
McNeilly 461
Casey Lib 336
Young Con 314
Millington Green 145
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:30
#41
McNeily 518 votes (134 lead) 11/13 polls reporting.
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:30
#42
Gord McNeilly winning by 30 votes with 5/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 74 votes with 6/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 74 votes with 7/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 103 votes with 8/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 122 votes with 9/13 polls
This one is almost ready to call. Is the PEI NDP returning to the legislature?
Gord McNeilly winning by 125 votes with 10/13 polls
I'm calling it. Gord McNeilly will be the NDP MLA for Charlottetown - Lewis Point
Notably, he has won 8/10 reported polls so far.
Gord McNeilly winning by 134 votes with 11/13 polls *he's won 9/11 polls
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:31
#43
Green party leader leading with 1 poll in
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:32
#44
Green Leader Peter Bevan-Baker leading in KELLYS CROSS-CUMBERLAND.
Green vote almost as high in PEI as NDP vote.
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:33
#45
If Greens win a seat, it will take some of the wind out of NDP sails.
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:34
#46
Green Leader leading by a wide margin, too.
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:35
#47
Peter Bevan-Baker (Greens) 858 votes (280 vote lead)
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:37
#48
Peter Bevan-Baker (Greens) 858 votes (280 vote lead)
He could win by a landslide!
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:39
#49
Peter Bevan-Baker (Greens) 858 votes (280 vote lead)
He could win by a landslide!
The Greens are at 10% of the vote. A very good result for them.
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:40
#50
Gord McNeilly winning by 30 votes with 5/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 74 votes with 6/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 74 votes with 7/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 103 votes with 8/13 polls
Gord McNeilly winning by 122 votes with 9/13 polls
This one is almost ready to call. Is the PEI NDP returning to the legislature?
Gord McNeilly winning by 125 votes with 10/13 polls
I'm calling it. Gord McNeilly will be the NDP MLA for Charlottetown - Lewis Point
Notably, he has won 8/10 reported polls so far.
Gord McNeilly winning by 134 votes with 11/13 polls *he's won 9/11 polls
The advance poll has not reported and the CBC thinks it will go Liberal.
Mon, 2015-05-04 19:41
#51
If Greens win a seat, it will take some of the wind out of NDP sails.
We'll see who has the wind tomorrow night and how strong it is.