Alberta Polls

I can't allow myself to believe the polls because the disappointment will be too great when on election night we see the usual and expected result of the conservatives forming government. Factors that I think will narrow the gap:

1) PC electoral machine

They have a GOTV effort that is vastly superior to that of any of the competitor parties and they know how to make contact with their membership and mobilise them.

2) Regional numbers

Forum's latest poll had the NDP at 45%. Stunning result, but...look at all of the regional breakdowns outside of Edmonton and Calgary and the Wildrose and NDP are statistically tied. This is the problem, if the "change" voters are overpolled (and for several elections now conservative voters have been underpolled), then the result in these areas is a toss-up. Calgary also has the outlines of a race where the NDP would win some but not all seats. Edmonton looks like an NDP landslide. To win the government, the NDP needs a lot more than just Edmonton, so it remains to be seen if Calgary can provide enough seats to cover for what is looks to be a weaker performance in the other (North, South, and Centre) regions of the province.

3) Who gets polled

Alberta has experienced so much growth over the last ten years that it is hardly any wonder how hard it is to poll. Cities, housing, everything has not been able to keep up with the pace of growth at times. Polling companies are no different. Managing to build good call and poll lists must be a major challenge- it's hard enough in provinces that have been relatively static just because of the decline of land lines. Edmonton and Calgary have over 2 million inhabitants between them, and are easier to poll than the rest of the province but only represent half the population and half the seats.

We'll have to wait and see. On the conservative side, Lorne Gunter's column today read like the warm-up to a concession speech.

Oddly as long as the NDP gets a majority Id be happier with the tories reduced to zero even if its with wildrose help, better without of course, as it would have serious ramifications for the federal tories.

Howard wrote:

I can't allow myself to believe the polls because the disappointment will be too great when on election night we see the usual and expected result of the conservatives forming government. Factors that I think will narrow the gap:

1) PC electoral machine

They have a GOTV effort that is vastly superior to that of any of the competitor parties and they know how to make contact with their membership and mobilise them.

2) Regional numbers

Forum's latest poll had the NDP at 45%. Stunning result, but...look at all of the regional breakdowns outside of Edmonton and Calgary and the Wildrose and NDP are statistically tied. This is the problem, if the "change" voters are overpolled (and for several elections now conservative voters have been underpolled), then the result in these areas is a toss-up. Calgary also has the outlines of a race where the NDP would win some but not all seats. Edmonton looks like an NDP landslide. To win the government, the NDP needs a lot more than just Edmonton, so it remains to be seen if Calgary can provide enough seats to cover for what is looks to be a weaker performance in the other (North, South, and Centre) regions of the province.

3) Who gets polled

Alberta has experienced so much growth over the last ten years that it is hardly any wonder how hard it is to poll. Cities, housing, everything has not been able to keep up with the pace of growth at times. Polling companies are no different. Managing to build good call and poll lists must be a major challenge- it's hard enough in provinces that have been relatively static just because of the decline of land lines. Edmonton and Calgary have over 2 million inhabitants between them, and are easier to poll than the rest of the province but only represent half the population and half the seats.

We'll have to wait and see. On the conservative side, Lorne Gunter's column today read like the warm-up to a concession speech.

I'm not sure the PC electoral machine is "vastly" superior in ALL of the 87 ridings.  Certainly, going into the election, they planned for and placed a lot of resources in what they expected to be the most competative ridings.  In the case where the NDP was competative going into the election a strong "Maginot Line" would have been put in place.  But the NDP has become far too strong in those competative ridings.

In many of the ridings where the PC's expected a cake walk, they may have a "superior" GOTV machine compared to other parties, but in actual fact innefectual to really make a dent in the numbers.

The Conservatives also have to face up against the mood of their own supporters.  Many of them also believe that it is time for a change.  Some of them may be very cranky and decide to stay at home.

I predict that PC E-day workers are coming up against supporters who don't want to vote, split households where they remind the NDP supporters to vote, as well as "supporters" who are no longer supporters.  That happens to all parties in all elections but it is going to be much more so for them in this election.

I understand the concept of the "change" voters seem disproportionately higher because they are believed to answer the polling questions rather than hang up.  But there has been a drop in PC support at the beginning of the campaign and during and after the leaders debate.  The NDP has picked up support from all the other political parties and that has not stopped.

Your comments regarding polls are valid and apply all over Alberta.  They have less meaning in Edmonton because the NDP is so far ahead of everyon else.

In Calgary, where the races are tighter is is meaningful to question the polls.  I'm just saying that because of the trends, your concerns would apply more a week ago than today.

Forum came closest to the NDP number.  Ipsos (not surprisingly) had the NDP lower than any other pollster.

Leger came closest to the PC number, while Leger, Forum and Ekos nailed the WR number.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2015/05/how-did-polls-perform-for-2015-alberta.html

Odd.  I think it's a rouge poll.  No actions taken or annoucements made would result in a drop to 31% and Wildrose to 40%.  Unless other polls show this, I think Mainstreet/Postmedia will take a hit over it.

jjuares wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Lots of time yet to burst Kenney's bubble, eh!

What was his position on TFWs eh!

I am not sure about what his position on TFW. A rise in oil prices is needed to probably save Notley.

Why isn't Notley moving faster on her campaign promise to diversify Alberta's economy to make it less vulnerable to oil price crashes in the first place? I'm sure there's a great deal of public support for that idea within Alberta.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

jjuares wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Lots of time yet to burst Kenney's bubble, eh!

What was his position on TFWs eh!

I am not sure about what his position on TFW. A rise in oil prices is needed to probably save Notley.

Why isn't Notley moving faster on her campaign promise to diversify Alberta's economy to make it less vulnerable to oil price crashes in the first place? I'm sure there's a great deal of public support for that idea within Alberta.

VoD all depends on who will really vote. 

and what a failure the yellow vest AB further becomes.

things are getting messy for Kenney and supporters of Jean's will not not be voting for him. 

What are the odds the right will split the vote again in Alberta now that they have merged into the UCP?

the religious and eastern European ethnic votes will be at play. petroleum industry people not so much those still working aren't planning on voting and those not working have gone home to their provinces of origin.

also the fight between the Ft McMurray mayor and the oil industry companies might come into play.

voice of the damned wrote:

And while doing some research just now, I came across this...

EDMONTON—An openly gay member of the United Conservative Party has left over leader Jason Kenney’s “troglodyte words” about gay rights.

On Thursday, Cody Johnston, a board member and campaign manager for the UCP, sent a letter to executive director Janice Harrington saying he wanted to be removed from all party boards and have his membership cancelled.

*******************

Johnston is also the communications and policy director for the Freedom Conservative Party, led by Derek Fildebrandt.

So, if I'm reading this correctly...

The guy was a "board member and campaign manager for the UCP" at the same time that he was "the communications and policy director for the Freedom Conservative Party"?

I realize there might not be a huge ideological difference between the two parties, but still, given the potential for vote-splitting, they would definitely consider themselves to be adversaries. Surprising to say the least that a guy could have occupied adminsitrative jobs in both groups simultaneously.

(Or were his UCP gigs all prior to his FCP gigs, and he was only maintaining membership in the former at the time of his departure?)

https://tinyurl.com/y6ubwo8z

 

This guy joins a far right Conservative Party lead by Jason Kenney,to boot, and he's just realizing that movement is the troglodyte's garden? Has this man been in a coma his whole life? The dude would buy a 50 lb bag of ice while sitting up North on an ice glacier. What a gullible fuck.

 

 

 

 

 

North Report that NDP 53% UCP poll is from Oct. 10. None of the five more recent polls have a lead that large according to https://338canada.com/alberta/polls.htm. Those five polls range from +10 NDP to +4 UCP, with the most recent shown below by Abacus on Dec. 6-10 having the NDP at +8.

 Abacus Poll Dec. 6-10

NDP 51% 

UCP 43%

Alberta Party 3%

Others 3%

Key Takeaways:
1. Only 25% of Albertans think the province is headed in the right direction.
2. The top issues are cost of living, healthcare, the economy, taxes, and housing.
3. Rachel Notley is viewed more positively than Danielle Smith.
4. NDP leads the UCP by 9 among decided voters. 25% of Albertans are undecided.
5. But the gap is only 4 points on preferred premier: Notley 52% vs. Smith 48%.
6. Understanding how “reluctant UCP” voters react over the next few months will be critical to anticipating the results of the next election.
Here’s my full read of the data and what it means about five months from a provincial election.

ONLY 1 IN 4 THINK THE PROVINCE IS HEADED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION

The overall mood of the public is fairly negative. 1 in 4 think the province is headed in the right direction while a slight majority (54%) think it’s off the track. This view is consistent across the province. Perhaps most important, more 2019 UCP voters think the province is off on the wrong track than think it’s headed in the right direction.

COST OF LIVING, HEALTHCARE & THE ECONOMY ARE THE TOP ISSUES

Albertans are most likely to rank the cost of living, improving health care and managing the economy as their top three issues right now. Housing affordability and keeping taxes low round out the top 5 with about 1 in 4 ranking it in their top three. Only 16% rate climate change as a top issue. For less than 10%, federal/provincial relations, stopping future mask or vaccine mandates or protecting the rights of gun owners are a top issue.

Comparing those who currently support the UCP with NDP supporters, we find both voter groups rank the cost of living as their top issue and are as equally as likely to feel housing affordability is a top issue. NDP supporters are 23 points more likely to rate healthcare as a top issue while UCP supporters are more likely to rate managing the economy (+13) and keeping taxes as low as possible (+22) as a top issue.
There’s a wide gap on other issues as well. NDP supporters are more likely to rate climate change, income inequality, and improving the education system as top issues while UCP voters are more likely to rate gun rights and mask or vaccine mandates as primary issues of concern.

When asked which political party they trust most to deal with each of these issues, we find some clear advantages for both major parties.

Albertans are more likely to trust the UCP to stop future mask/vaccine mandates, protect gun rights, keep taxes low, and manage the economy.

In contrast, they are more likely to trust the NDP on climate change, reducing the gap between the rich and the poor, and improving education and healthcare, on housing, and on federal/provincial relations.

However, it’s worth focusing most on the top 3 issues of the cost of living, healthcare, and managing the economy. Neither party has an advantage on the cost of living (NDP 36% vs. UCP 35%). The UCP has a 6-point advantage on the economy (39% to 33%) while the NDP has a larger 13-point advantage on improving the healthcare system (42% to 29%).

This sorting gives us insight into how framing the election may have an impact on the outcome. As neither party has an advantage on the top issue – the cost of living – that issue may be neutralized. However, an election focused on healthcare would benefit the NDP while one focused on the economy may benefit the UCP.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS: NOTLEY VIEWED MORE POSITIVELY THAN SMITH

NDP Leader Rachel Notley has a net favourable rating of +10 with 43% having a positive view of her and 33% viewing her negatively. In contrast, Premier Danielle Smith’s net favourable rating is -12 with 30% positive and 42% negative. Both leaders are quite well known with about 1 in 10 Albertans saying they don’t know enough about both leaders to have an opinion. This suggests that views of these leaders are unlikely to change much – especially in the positive direction – given how well known they are. It’s hard to change people’s perceptions of you once they have an impression.

Regionally, Danielle Smith is viewed more negatively in Edmonton (-30) than in Calgary (-1) or other areas of Alberta (-9). Among past UCP voters, 50% have a positive view of her while 28% have a negative view (+22). Among those who voted for the Alberta Party in 2019, 37% have a positive view while 57% negative.

For Rachel Notley, she is viewed positively in Edmonton (+34), Calgary (+10) and negatively outside those two cities (-8). However, in all three regions, her net favourables are better than they are for Danielle Smith. Among past NDP voters, 89% have a positive view of Notley while 3% have a negative view – an very impressive +85 net rating. Among past UCP voters, her net rating is -39 with 20% having a positive view and 59% negative. Among those who voted for the Alberta Party in 2019, 58% have a positive view while 24% negative.

The survey also asked Albertans to rate the two leaders on several attributes. Overall, Rachel Notley’s image is more favourable than Danielle Smith. When asked whether the attribute describe each leader very well, pretty well, not that well, or not at all, among those with an opinion of both leaders (which is about the same across the board) Notley has a clear advantage on all except for standing up for what’s best for Alberta. There’s only a 2-point difference on that.

Even when we isolate only those living in battleground Calgary, Rachel Notley has an advantage on all, albeit to a lesser extent. Notley’s biggest advantage over Smith is on whether people think they are kind and compassionate (Notley ahead by 13), smart (Notley +8), and in politics for the right reason (Notley +7). For the other attributes, the gap between Notley and Smith are not as substantial.

Of note, the attribute that both leaders perform worst on is empathy – “understands what people like me are going through”. 45% think that terms applies well to Notley versus 42% for Danielle Smith.

To underscore the importance of leader images to vote choice, the charts below show the vote share for both Danielle Smith and Rachel Notley depending on how a respondent feels about the leader.
82% of those who like Danielle Smith say they will vote UCP. That drops to 40% among those with a neutral opinion and to 2% among those who dislike Smith. Of note, 26% of those with a neutral view of Smith and 24% of those with a negative view of her say they are undecided about how they’d vote if an election was today.

The same pattern exists for Rachel Notley. 78% of those who like the NDP leader say they would vote NDP. This drops to 28% among those neutral towards her and down to 1% who dislike her. Of note, 41% of those with a neutral view of Notley say they are undecided, significantly higher than the vote intention of those neutral towards Smith.

https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-politics-deep-dive-december-2022/