All the betting sites are currently favouring a Labour government. The odds being given for Milliband to be the next PM are currently aproximately 60%.
https://m.oddschecker.com/t/politics/british-politics#politics-british-p...
United Kingdom
Tue, 2015-04-28 04:59
#102
Fri, 2015-05-01 10:15
#103
Labour's Scottish leader predicts Cameron will 'remain as PM' as new poll predicts SNP will win all seats north of the border
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-el...
Fri, 2015-05-01 12:12
#104
Tories aren't gaining seats, Labour is losing seats to the SNP.
Fri, 2015-05-01 12:21
#105
But who will SNP support?
Fri, 2015-05-01 13:08
#106
Not the Conservatives.
Fri, 2015-05-01 13:11
#107
But who will SNP support?
The SNP have said they will support Labour. Labour has said they will not enter into a coalition with the SNP but have not ruled out working with the SNP on a case by case basis. So if Labour and the SNP end up with more than 314 seats there will likely be a Labour minority government.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/calling-the-tune
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/labour-would-accept-snp-support-on-a-v...
Mon, 2015-05-04 00:18
#108
David Cameron's "(Tory)Conference Rap" (as assembled by someone calling himself "Cassette Boy")
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YBumQHPAeU
(If I were running the Labour campaign, I'd ask permission to use this in the last Labour "election broadcasts")
Wed, 2015-05-06 18:44
#109
Final Guardian projection is for Labour and the Tories to each have 273 seats.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-...
Another has it Tories 281 Labour 276
Wed, 2015-05-06 20:31
#110
All the betting sites are currently giving almost exactly even odds for either Milliband or Cameron to be the next P.M.
https://m.oddschecker.com/t/politics/british-politics#politics-british-p...
Wed, 2015-05-06 20:35
#111
Final Guardian projection is for Labour and the Tories to each have 273 seats.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-...
Another has it Tories 281 Labour 276
I think you have to include the SNP in order to be able to predict whether Milliband or Cameron are going to end up forming a government. The rule of thumb I've heard being used is that if Labour and the SNP end up with 315 or more seats, Milliband will likely be the next P.M because the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the SDLP, and the Greens have all said they will oppose a Conservative led government. The key number I will be looking at will be anything over 315 seats for Labour and the SNP.
Here are 9 different Election Prediction Sites:
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-...
http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meet...
Most of these sites are predicting that the Conservatives will come in first place and Labour will come in second but more importantly that Labour and the SNP wIll get over 317 seats that would likely lead to a Milliband Labour government.
Wed, 2015-05-06 20:47
#112
Live election results:
Thu, 2015-05-07 16:38
#113
Polls close in less than 30 minutes
Will SNP be the kingmaker and who will they ally with?
Thu, 2015-05-07 16:40
#114
Thu, 2015-05-07 16:48
#115
If the polls are correct, there will be an intense battle for public opinion. The parties have lined up their frontbenchers, including Ed Balls for Labour and Michael Gove for the Tories, to take to the airwaves for the key two hours after polling stations close at 10pm.
Senior Labour sources have already claimed the party is preparing to fight any attempt by Cameron to declare victory as leader of the largest party even if he does not have enough seats to command a majority.
Miliband is thought to have more paths to a majority with the help of the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and/or the Greens. He has spent the last two days repeatedly dodging questions about what he will do if he narrowly finishes second.
In a final plea to people to vote for Labour, he said: “If you do that today, then tomorrow you won’t have to wake up to the news that five years of the Tories has turned into a Tory decade – a decade where only the privileged few will do well, where there will be one rule for a few and another for everyone else. So the stakes are high in these crucial hours.”
Labour aides have said they take the same position as constitutional experts, who say there is no law giving the leader of the largest party the right to govern. “The rules are the rules” regardless of the political argument about legitimacy that Cameron may make, one Labour adviser said.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/07/election-2015-labour-and...
Thu, 2015-05-07 16:50
#116
This is interesting
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2015/may/07/general-election-co...
Thu, 2015-05-07 16:53
#117
Should be out in 10 minutes I think.
Exit poll: What is it and how accurate has it been in the past?
In 2010 the exit poll was very accurate, under-predicting Labour’s seat share by three and over-predicting the Liberal Democrats by two.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/exit-poll-...
Thu, 2015-05-07 16:55
#118
Jeremy Heywood: The man who will help form a government in the case of a hung Parliament
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/jeremy-hey...
Thu, 2015-05-07 17:18
#119
538 forecast for UK election
Cons - 278
Lab - 267
SNP - 53
LD - 27
Thu, 2015-05-07 17:20
#120
Thu, 2015-05-07 17:35
#121
Much be concern in Labour camp about the exit polls.
Thu, 2015-05-07 17:37
#122
First results supposedly in 5 minutes
Thu, 2015-05-07 17:50
#123
I checked out the live results link that JKR gave, but there's nothing on it yet. Any idea when some results will start to be tabulated?
Thu, 2015-05-07 17:58
#124
Sunderland South first results in Labour increased their margin of victory however exit poll spokesperson said this is Northeast and was expected. Labour will have problems elsewhere according to him.
L-D lost their deposit paying price for supporting Cameron
Thu, 2015-05-07 18:38
#125
The exit poll no one expected
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/07/the-general-electio...
Thu, 2015-05-07 19:05
#126
All the betting sites are currently giving almost exactly even odds for either Milliband or Cameron to be the next P.M.
https://m.oddschecker.com/t/politics/british-politics#politics-british-p...
According to the betting sites Cameron has won the election and will lead a minority government or lead another coalition with the Liberal Democrats. According to the betting sites it will be another hung parliament.
Thu, 2015-05-07 19:13
#127
THE BBC spokepeople seem quite obnoxious - are they right-wingers?
Thu, 2015-05-07 19:17
#128
Labour is projected to win just 250 seats or so.
The SNP is projected to win 54 seats. So Labour and the SNP together have 304 seats, 10 less they needed to oust the Conservative government.
Thu, 2015-05-07 19:21
#129
The Liberal Democrats are projected to win just 15 seats! A tiny amount but enough to put the Conservatives over the top.
Thu, 2015-05-07 19:22
#130
The Conservatives are projected to win somewhere between 304 and 311 seats. Less than a majority but a comfortable minority.
Thu, 2015-05-07 19:25
#131
Exit Poll
Cons - 316, up 9 seats
Lab - 239, down 19
SNP - 58, up 52
LIb-Dem - 10, down 47
323 seats required for majority
Thu, 2015-05-07 19:29
#132
montrealer58
This is a good lesson for Canadian Liberals. Keep supporting the Conservatives, and you will eventually lose your deposit.
Thu, 2015-05-07 19:35
#133
You just did had to get in your daily crack at the Canadian Liberals, eh, Montrealer58? 
Thu, 2015-05-07 19:36
#134
montrealer58
Liberals are Liberals, and they make slimy deals with Conservatives, wherever they may be.
Thu, 2015-05-07 19:37
#135
Exit poll: Conservatives to be largest party
The Conservatives are forecast to be the largest party with 316 seats, the BBC exit poll predicts, with Labour winning 239, the SNP 58, Lib Dems 10, Plaid Cymru 4, UKIP 2 and the Green Party 2.
Thu, 2015-05-07 19:37
#136
3 of 650 seats reporting so far.
Appear to be 3 Labour Holds.
No changes so far.
http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2015/results
Thu, 2015-05-07 19:40
#137
This is a good lesson for Canadian Liberals. Keep supporting the Conservatives, and you will eventually lose your deposit.
It looks like the Liberal Democrats won't even have enough seats to be in another coalition with the Conservatives. So a Conservative minority government is the likely outcome of the election. The Conservatives will probably call another election within the next 5 years if they feel they can get a majority.
Thu, 2015-05-07 19:47
#138
NATE SILVER Predictions:
Conservatives 272
Labour 271
SNP 53
Liberal Democrats 27
Plaid Cymru 4
UKIP 2
Greens 1
http://fivethirtyeight.com/liveblogs/uk-general-election-2015/
Thu, 2015-05-07 19:50
#139
Liberals are Liberals, and they make slimy deals with Conservatives, wherever they may be.
The Liberal Democrats are actually the equivalent to the NDP, whereas Labour is the equivalent to the Liberals.
So it was the farthest-left party in the UK which chose to boost up the Conservatives.
But I agree with you that Nick Clegg will pay the price for it.
Thu, 2015-05-07 19:53
#140
Nate Silver is updating his numbers based on new data coming in:
Conservatives 279
Labour 265
SNP 53
Liberal Democrats 27
Plaid Cymru 4
UKIP 2
Greens 1
http://fivethirtyeight.com/liveblogs/uk-general-election-2015/
Thu, 2015-05-07 20:17
#141
This Map is going to take a long time to fill in. LOL.
UK are the slowest counters in the business. They do it the traditional way of lining up all the candidates on stage in each riding and reading out the results.
Only 8 of 650 seats in . . .
Thu, 2015-05-07 20:21
#142
I've heard that the Conservatives will likely do better than expected, and Labour will do worse than expected, based upon the exit polls.
Thu, 2015-05-07 20:21
#143
montrealer58
The British system of running all the boxes to a central regional counting station is slower. Here were count them at the polling stations and the results are sent into central.
Thu, 2015-05-07 20:22
#144
This looks like it is going to be a very sad nite for Brits based on bullshit right wing myths that get shoved at them 24/7 in the msp. Cameron may even get a majority
Thu, 2015-05-07 20:36
#145
I've heard that the Conservatives will likely do better than expected, and Labour will do worse than expected, based upon the exit polls.
Now I'm just hoping that the Conservatives don't win an outright majority. It looks like they have a chance of getting one.
Thu, 2015-05-07 20:39
#146
Watching these right-wingers win another election across the pond is a real downer.
It was so refreshing to watch the returns coming in on Tuesday nite in Alberta and to see all the right-wing, the Liberals, the Conservatives and the Greens get crushed. Hopefully it can be replicated when we go to the polls nationally in October.
Does anyone think for one second if Rachel had not got a majority on Tuesday she would even be Premier-elect now?
Thu, 2015-05-07 20:58
#147
montrealer58
It seems like the movement is that much of the Tory vote split off to the UKIP, and Lib Dem voters have picked the Tories to stop the UKIP. Again, Liberals voted Conservative.
It now looks like an outright majority for the Tories, with Battersea and one in Wales going Tory. These are bad hits on Labour.
Thu, 2015-05-07 21:38
#148
-
The Lib Dem vote has collapsed and the Tories are getting the lion's share of their vote.
Thu, 2015-05-07 21:54
#149
Seems to me we have seen this story before. In Canada. The 2011 Federal Election.
When a left-wing party is unable to appeal to centrist & conservative voters, those voters often choose a more right-wing alternative. The collapse of the center then ends up benefitting the conservatives.
Thu, 2015-05-07 21:55
#150
As CPC strategists such as Gerry Nicholls and Tom Flanagan have said, Harper wants to eliminate the Liberals because he views the NDP as a weaker opponent and feels that they would have a lot of trouble beating the Conservatives (as they did in 2011.)
But having said that, I've given up on trying to predict the outcome of the 2015 Federal Election, and will no longer be suggesting that people vote Liberal as the main way of beating the Harper Cons.
The provincial Alberta NDP win, while having nothing to do with Mulcair, obviously has already caused the Federal NDP to claim that they can beat the Cons even though they failed to do so in 2011. Meanwhile, the Liberals, who had a good opportunity at one point of beating the Harper Cons, have lost their way recently, particularly on Bill C-51, and are no longer the force they once were.
In conclusion, I've reached the point where if the NDP & the Liberals each want to fight it out and each claim that they can beat the Cons, I no longer care what the outcome is. Let them fight it out and let the chips fall where they may.
Harper may end up being the big winner.
Or maybe there will be a surprise and he will end up a loser like Prentice.
Thu, 2015-05-07 21:58
#151
This is the or perhaps another exit poll. I don't know if Labour should be written off just yet.