Montreal ridings and candidates 2015

Dave, this is amazing! This is the type of candidate the Libs always seemed to attract to their banner in the past and I am delighted to see someone of Beatrice's obvious calibre, and quality and presnce so readily step into the ring to take on Prince Pretty Hair! I am hopeful this shows in a real way that people in Quebec, and in fact around the country, actaully have started to decide they can make a meanifngul contirbution to governance as part of a NDP government, instead of how it used to be that the LPC was seen as the only alternative even though many LPC candidates in the past clearly would have better fitted in under the NDP banner. This is fabulous! I couldn't be happier! All you LPC shills, you should start stopping taking it for granted that the "jig is up". It isn't.

It probably is. But that is one of the strange and sad things with the way ridings are drawn up; this riding includes areas in NDG and the western Plateau that have seen strong NDP support.

Edited to add: I see that the riding boundaries have been altered significantly and it is now NDG-Westmount. But the NDP did well in NDG.

I so want to see the Liberal deadlock broken in Papineau...

montrealer58 wrote:

The contrasts between B.Z. and Le Dauphin are numerous and humorous. We have someone here who has done something, versus someone who really hasn't.

I'm not pleased with Justin Trudeau (as I explained in detail on another thread), but some of these posts show what happens when partisianship gets carried away.

Justin Trudeau has been elected as an MP twice and been leader of a major political party for the past 2 years, so whether one likes him or not one can't say that he hasn't done anything.

As for the Conservatives, it's surprising that they allowed this Chris Lloyd person to get through, but I guess it shows even the Cons can have a candidate pull the wool over their eyes.  Papineau is one of the worst ridings in the whole country for the Cons, so it's not as if they have a chance anyway.  They didn't even get 5% of the vote in 2011.  The fact that it's such a weak riding for them is probably one of the reasons this joke candidate got through.

Trudeau got where he got because of collective nepotism. B.Z. helped people get to Montreal from Cote d'Ivoire. Given his skills and talents, Justin Trudeau would not have been MP nor Liberal leader were his name not Trudeau. B.Z. has helped people. Justin Trudeau has only helped himself.

People assumed he would be as good as his father because of his genetics. We like to think Canada is a little more meritocratic than that. Around the Liberal leadership he even seemed to have that royal jelly. There is no doubt he performed very well during that time.

But he proved that he did not have that royal jelly over time. He was carefully stewarded through the leadership, and then for whatever reason when he became leader, he was no longer under the influence of those handlers.

This contrast would remain true no matter what party B.Z. wanted to represent. I could say this if I was NDP, Green or Conservative. Even as a highly disappointed Liberal.

Take today. Trudeau says that every family getting the same is not fair. This caused the Tories to whoop and make comments about Trudeau not being scripted. I would have said that Conservative economic policies are causing increased wealth disparity and asked the Prime Minister how his economic program would alleviate that. Maybe he could have got Harper to say that he did not believe wealth disparity is a problem.

I want people like B.Z. questioning the government about wealth disparity, because I am sure she has experienced it a lot more than Justin Trudeau.

There is a very dynamic community sector in NDG - surely they can find someone worthy.

Yes he should get credit for even discussing making the tax system more progressive. I suspect he will get that credit.

It is his other policies that raise concerns in my view.

 Family rep was an asset for Notley yes, but she had achievements previously from outside politics that were meaningful, at no time did she reply upon them as heavily as Trudeau has,

Any word about the campaign in Ahuntsic-Cartierville?  I think this is going to be one of the most interesting races on election night!

With Maria Mourani running as the NDP candidate this time, can anyone with local knowledge throw any light on how this one might go?

On its new boundaries Ahuntsic-Carierville bears siome similarities to Paineau. The Liberals would have won each by modest magins over the NDP with the Bloc having a substantial presence owing to strong candiates

AC would have been L 31 N 30 B 28. With Mourani running for the NDP I would think she can take much of the vote with her that supported her as a Bloc candiate.

Trudeau's celebrity as leader will likley save him in Papineau but on paper he is potentially vulnerable. The redistributed results are: L 38 N 30

B 25. With the previous Bloc MP sitting out this election the NDP has some hope of taking a big enough chunk of her votes to be in contention.

I think one of the most interesting Montreal ridings is Ville Marie - Le Sud Ouest - Iles des Souers ( there should be a law against such long names). The Liberals thought they could parachute in one of Justin's buddies from Westmount for an easy win against a weak incumbent. But the NDP nominated a much stronger candidate.

I may write something more about this race later but would be interested in any local intelligence on the prospects there. 

swallow wrote:

Trudeau has clearly done things. That said, the NDP candidate is clearly an impressive person. This riding may have been saved by a strong vote for the splendid Vivian Barbot (BQ) allowing Trudeau to win in a three-way race. I suspect he'll win again, but a two-way race means perhaps a better NDP chance. No idea who the Bloc is runnign and their web page still has no candidate information.

Maxime Claveau is the new BQ candidate for Papineau.

I found him here at his nomination on the BQ Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/blocquebecois/photos/a.565035510197157.10737418...

Ousted Tory hoped to ‘take down Justin Trudeau’ despite his candidacy being an art project

May 14, 2015

Interview with Chris Lloyd (VIDEO):

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/national/Ousted+Tory+hoped+take+down+Ju...

Don't we need candidates that represent everybody, as opposed to just the Italians, in the riding?

Liberals, Montreal’s Italian community pin hopes on Di Iorio

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-montreals-italian-...

True, but you understand what the press is talking about here.

Whenever a riding contains a large cultural group, it's standard practice for the press and the political parties to focus on that aspect.

The NDP, Liberals & Conservatives all pick candidates from particular ethnic backgrounds in certain ridings.  That's why parties often have Chinese candidates in ridings with large Chinese communities (eg. Vancouver) or ridings with large Filipino communities (Winnipeg North) or Jewish communities (Mount Royal).

In the current Mount Royal race, what is the prime topic of discussion in every article?  The Jewish vote.  And both main candidates, Anthony Housefather and Robert Libman . . . are Jewish!

Likewise, not far away in Bourassa, it's not a coincidence that both the Liberal & NDP candidates are . . . Haitian!  MP Emmanuel Dubourg for the Liberals, and Dolmine Laguerre for the NDP.

So it makes sense that St. Leonard, which is known as the "Italian riding" is going to have that be its focus.  And the NDP has also chosen an Italian Canadian as its candidate.

Whether rightly or wrongly, all parties today, particularly in the age of micro-targeting and cultural outreach described by Susan Delacourt in "Shopping For Votes", now frequently choose candidates from the main cultural groups in particular ridings.

Papineau is a real bellweather now between the Liberals and the NDP. If Trudeau wins, his leadership of the Liberals and being MP for Papineau has been vindicated. If he loses, the NDP are into a huge number of ridings they were not in 2011. If Trudeau loses, it will be an NDP "Juggernaut", and definitely a majority, unless the run stops at the Ottawa River.

The neoRhino and the old Rhinos reunited and are for now back as the Parti Rhinoceros. They nominated a new leader, and a candidate is indeed running in Papineau. They even have an official agent. One of their people told me that Elections Canada has made it almost impossible for them to exist.

So what would the Liberals do in a minority Prliament where they they held the balance of power and the NDP and the Conservatives were first and second (or second and first)?

There is clearly a schism in the Liberal Party about cooperation with the NDP, particulalry in the form of a coalition. This emerged in 2008 with many Liberals such as Bob Rae in favour. The business Liberals prevailed and installed Ignatieff and we should not underestimate the strength of that faction. Trudeau has pretty clearly allied himself with it with fairly conservative policies and his recent disparagement of Mulcair and the prospect of a coalition.

I have written here before that the split in the Liberal caucus over proportional representation is quite likley predictive of the Liberal split on an NDP coalition. The Liberal MPs were split down the middle on the NDP PR motio a few months back. Trudeau and a large minority were oposed. Generally speaking PR is seen to be a progressive measure which is supported by those on the left. The vote in this context can be seen as a litmus test to indicate the relatively progressive Liberals vs the relatively conservative ones.

More broadly, those who voed for PR implicitly favour an electoral system where majorities are rarities and coalitions are likley. In other words that faction is broadly open to coalition with the NDP.

There would be enormous pressure form Bay Street not to back the NDP and that position may well prevail just as in 2008. On the other hand there would also be enormous pressure from the Liberal base to ditch the Conservatives. The Liberals would have hell to pay if they propped up Harper.

EKOS used to poll routinely about second preferences. They have not done so lately but in October they found that 54% of Liberal voters preferred the NDP as their second choice and only 15% the Conservatives. 16% preferred the Greens and I suspect that group would also be greatly prefer the NDP.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_19_20...

The recent EKOS did not ask that question but did determine that 43% of Liberal voters approved of Mulcair and only 20% Haper.

The Liberals would be running a huge electoral risk if they maintained the Harper government in power.

nicky wrote:

So what would the Liberals do in a minority Prliament where they they held the balance of power and the NDP and the Conservatives were first and second (or second and first)?

There is clearly a schism in the Liberal Party about cooperation with the NDP, particulalry in the form of a coalition. This emerged in 2008 with many Liberals such as Bob Rae in favour. The business Liberals prevailed and installed Ignatieff and we should not underestimate the strength of that faction. Trudeau has pretty clearly allied himself with it with fairly conservative policies and his recent disparagement of Mulcair and the prospect of a coalition.

I have written here before that the split in the Liberal caucus over proportional representation is quite likley predictive of the Liberal split on an NDP coalition. The Liberal MPs were split down the middle on the NDP PR motio a few months back. Trudeau and a large minority were oposed. Generally speaking PR is seen to be a progressive measure which is supported by those on the left. The vote in this context can be seen as a litmus test to indicate the relatively progressive Liberals vs the relatively conservative ones.

More broadly, those who voed for PR implicitly favour an electoral system where majorities are rarities and coalitions are likley. In other words that faction is broadly open to coalition with the NDP.

There would be enormous pressure form Bay Street not to back the NDP and that position may well prevail just as in 2008. On the other hand there would also be enormous pressure from the Liberal base to ditch the Conservatives. The Liberals would have hell to pay if they propped up Harper.

EKOS used to poll routinely about second preferences. They have not done so lately but in October they found that 54% of Liberal voters preferred the NDP as their second choice and only 15% the Conservatives. 16% preferred the Greens and I suspect that group would also be greatly prefer the NDP.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_19_20...

The recent EKOS did not ask that question but did determine that 43% of Liberal voters approved of Mulcair and only 20% Haper.

The Liberals would be running a huge electoral risk if they maintained the Harper government in power.

Absolutely-- I would go further -- this is not just about popularity -- the party would probably split. I see no chance of that happening if the NDP and Liberals together form a majority no matter what Trudeau thinks. The only way the Liebrals back Harper is if the BQ has the balance of power. It is the only cover possible for such a move.

Mario Beaulieu confirmé comme candidat du Bloc

le 24 mai 2015

L'investiture de Mario Beaulieu comme candidat pour le Bloc québécois dans la circonscription de La Pointe-de-l'Île à Montréal, dimanche, a été l'occasion pour le parti d'affirmer sa pertinence après la déconfiture de 2011 et, pour le Parti québécois et son nouveau chef, l'occasion de manifester leur soutien.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201505/...

I think what some people don't get is that the interests of progressive Quebec are aligned with the interests of progressive Canada to a great degree. When one of the parties is anti-progressive, it is obvious their interests will not be the same. Thus a progressive party in Quebec can say that its interests do not mesh with a Liberal or Conservative Canada, and they can then be exceptionalist or nationalist.

In reality, right-wing nationalists like Marois and Peledeau work just fine with Liberals and Tories in Ottawa. They use nationalism to cynically push hot buttons in Quebec, and to try to isolate the Quebec people from the world.

The BQ seems to have decided it is going to compete with the Conservatives for the chauvanist/nationalist vote. A section of the population is highly intolerant and xenophobic, and scurrilous politicians will exploit that, as they have for decades.

If an independent Quebec means Islamophobia, count me out.