Climate Change: Notley’s unexpected ally in growth
Climate change is indeed expected to warm the prairies, which would, other things being equal, increase crop yields. The problem is, other things are not equal already and almost certainly won't be in the future. A drier climate will limit crop growth despite any warming effects of climate change as the conclusions of the following report on climate change on the Canadian prairie outlines.
KEy CoNCLUSIoNS
• There will be lower summer streamflows, falling lake levels, retreating glaciers and declining soil moisture. Less water will be stored as winter snow and ice – historically a reliable and important source of water. Water scarcity may constrain economic and population growth in Alberta.
• Within the framework of an environment that is tracking warmer and drier, there will be more flood events, severe storms and climatic extremes. The climate is becoming increasingly variable season to season and year to year.
• Droughts of extreme severity or long duration are an increasing threat to communities and industries, particularly agriculture.
• Generally summers will be especially dry. • Much of the projected temperature increase will occur in winter and spring. There will be reduced energy demand for
heating and higher demand for cooling.
• A shorter, warmer, winter season will make winter ice roads less viable and will hinder some forestry and energy industry operations. Some agricultural and forest pests will survive warmer winters more easily – mountain pine beetle is a serious threat. Ice-fishing, snowmobiling and skiing may decline.
• Higher potential forest, grassland and crop productivity from increased heat and atmospheric CO2 will be limited by available soil moisture.
• There will be major ecosystem changes. Aquatic habitats will be stressed and some fish and waterfowl populations will decline. Non-native plants and animals will appear on the landscape, while some native species will decline or disappear entirely. The southern boreal forest is at serious risk.
• Some vector-borne diseases, such as West Nile virus and hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, could become more common. • The most vulnerable people to climate change impacts include the elderly, children, the poor, those with underlying
health problems, farmers, and Aboriginal peoples.
• Adaptation to climate change is necessary. Minimum tillage practices and crop diversification in the agricultural sector, infrastructure and water conservation programs across the Prairies, new water policy in Alberta, and re-engineering of the Red River floodway in Manitoba, have enhanced resilience and increased adaptive capacity.
• Climate change impacts are on-going, and the acceleration of impacts is now inevitable. To avoid the most damaging worst-case climate change impacts scenarios, significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are urgently required.
http://www.parc.ca/pdf/research_publications/summary_docs/SD2008-01.pdf'
