Warren Kinsella got annoyed not because the NDP qouted him, but because the NDP called his blog a website.
Latest polling thread April 28th, 2015
Mon, 2015-06-08 20:19
#352
Mon, 2015-06-08 20:20
#353
Warren Kinsella got annoyed not because the NDP qouted him, but because the NDP called his website a blog. Damn if anyone can tell the differnce.
Mon, 2015-06-08 20:21
#354
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Tue, 2015-06-09 00:47
#355
In aggregate, the NDP has surged into second place. Or a three-way tie. If you allow for statistical noise.
The biggest shifts: Alberta, Quebec, BC, Ontario.
The stubbornly small bumps: Atlantic Canada and the Prairies.
We'll see if the momentum continues as more people hear about the polls.
Tue, 2015-06-09 00:54
#356
In aggregate, the 308 has the surging into second place in May. (Or, to be scientifically accurate about statistical noise, a three-way tie.)
The Liberals are now polling where they were before Trudeau was elected leader.
The NDP has risen to where they were before Trudeau was elected leader. But they've yet to outpoll their 1st place honeymoon after Mulcair was elected leader.
We'll see what happens as more people hear about the polls. Herding is a reality in the electorate, for better or for worse. Olivia Chow and Brian Jean can attest to this.
Tue, 2015-06-09 11:43
#357
CRA has released some provincial polling of the Atlantic, and seems the provincial wings of the NDP are doing better in most of them (except PEI).
Support for NDP increases in Nova Scotia
Support for NDP surges in New Brunswick
CRA is going to release federal polling results of the Atlantic tomorrow (Wednesday). So it will be interesting to see if the NDP has improved in the Atlantic.
Tue, 2015-06-09 18:01
#358
I just received a call from a polling firm that I had never heard of before.
L.O.G.I.T.
Anyone heard of it?
From the questions asked, it was definitely a Liberal Party originating survey.
And what pleasure I had when given the choice of 1 through 10 about Justin (It-For-Me) Trudeau's chances at being Prime Minister, I told the person doing the survey, and I quote...'A resounding 1!'
That just made my day
!
Tue, 2015-06-09 18:16
#359
The Nanos Poll out today showing continuing strength for Mulcair and the NDP confims my hunch about the recent Forum Research poll - either it is a Outlier or they are pimping for the Liberals.
Tue, 2015-06-09 18:52
#360
Now that the NDP has recently taken over the lead in the polls, make no mistake about it, they have broken through a gigantic psychological barrier for the voters. The Liberals whole campaign was focused on the the fact that the NDP was a last place party so they couldn't win. Now the the NDP is in first place, I expect to see them slowly pull away from the pack, and the Liberals continue their slow decent into oblivion. Whether or not the NDP can form a majority government is now the ballot box question.
Ignore all the right-wing Liberal and Conservative nonsense you will see in the msp that's it's early yet, that no one is paying attention to politics now, it's summertime, etc. Everyone was supposedly paying attention when the right-wing parties were in the lead, weren't they? Yes of course there will be lots of the usual Liberal dirty tricks, like yesterday's Forum Poll, but I am confident now that the NDP is in the race to form their first federal government in Canada.
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9,300
Tue, 2015-06-09 20:01
#361
The prov NDP Atlantic numbers strike me as vote-parking.
Tue, 2015-06-09 20:22
#362
Where did you find the Nanos info?
Tue, 2015-06-09 21:01
#363
Tue, 2015-06-09 21:12
#364
I find Nanos "Party Power Index" completely incomprehensible.
Tue, 2015-06-09 21:21
#365
It's a political party branding thingy.
Anyway Nanos also publishes polls periodically and his last poll had the NDP ahead of the Liberals, up 5% at 30%
Tue, 2015-06-09 21:23
#366
The UBC stock market has the NDP leading in the popular vote share market.
Wed, 2015-06-10 02:23
#367
The UBC stock market has the NDP leading in the popular vote share market.
Would you mind explaining what that is?
Wed, 2015-06-10 12:11
#368
The UBC stock market has the NDP leading in the popular vote share market.
Would you mind explaining what that is?
It is an experimental market set up by a prof at UBC that aims to predict elections based on how much real money people are willing to pay for "shares" in various outcomes. It is where I have made considerable pocket change over the last several weeks selling the Liberals short.
Looking forward to the 193 shares of "NDP majority government" that I purchased for 5 cents apiece to pay off at a dollar apiece in October! :)
Wed, 2015-06-10 12:34
#369
EKOS (Atlantic 192 responses 7.1% margin of error)
37% Liberal
25% NDP
22% Conservative
13% Green
3% Other
Forum Research (Atlantic 99 responses)
53% Liberal
21% Conservative
20% NDP
6% Green
1% Other
Wed, 2015-06-10 12:35
#370
Support For Federal NDP Surges In Atlantic Canada
According to the CRA (1502 surveyed)
43% Liberal (Down from 56% three months ago)
29% NDP (Up 15% from 14%)
24% Conservative (Down 2%)
4% Green
http://www.halifaxer.com/2015/06/10/ndp-support-surges-in-atlantic-canada/
Wed, 2015-06-10 12:38
#371
Looks consistent with some of Nanos's obscure numbers. Over the past few weeks, the Atlantic has shown a smaller NDP bump than the rest of the country. But this week, it looks like those numbers are finally starting to catch up with the rest of the country.
Wed, 2015-06-10 12:49
#372
In terms of seats, it translates to:
Lib 22
NDP 6
Con 4
Wed, 2015-06-10 13:18
#373
Here's the CRA report on federal party support.
Support for the federal NDP has dramatically increased this quarter reversing a nearly three year decline in support for the party and moving the New Democrats into second place ahead of the Conservative Party, according to the most recent survey of Atlantic Canadians conducted by Corporate Research Associates Inc.
Over four in ten decided voters support the Liberal Party (43%, down from 56% three months ago), while three in ten prefer the NDP (29%, up from 14%). Meanwhile, backing for the Conservative Party is consistent with last quarter (24%, compared with 26%), while four percent of Atlantic Canadians prefer the Green Party (unchanged). Four in ten (41%, unchanged) residents in the region are undecided, refuse to state a preference, or do not plan to vote.
Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper’s popularity currently stands at 19 percent (compared with 21% in February 2015). Meanwhile, Justin Trudeau of the Liberal Party is preferred by over one-third of Atlantic Canadians (36%, down from 41%), while preference for Thomas Mulcair of the NDP increased to two in ten (22%, up from 14%), and Elizabeth May of the Green Party is preferred by five percent (compared with 6%).
“The election of the NDP in Alberta may be a watershed moment in Canadian politics,” said Don Mills, Chairman and CEO of Corporate Research Associates. “It appears that the Alberta victory has increased the legitimacy of the NDP as a viable alternative to the Conservatives and Liberals.”
A majority of Atlantic Canadians continue to be dissatisfied with the current federal government. Over six in ten residents (63%, as compared to 60%) are dissatisfied in this regard, while three in ten residents are satisfied (28%, down from 32%), and eight percent do not offer a definite opinion (unchanged).
http://cra.ca/federal-voting-intentions-tighten-significantly-in-atlanti...
Wed, 2015-06-10 14:05
#374
What's key about these latest polling numbers is that the NDP has cut the Liberal lead substantially, I think by 27%, and as well the NDP continues to have the momentum so chances are quite good, seeing as we still have another 4 months, that the NDP could pick up quite a few more seats in Atlantic Canada.
Wed, 2015-06-10 14:28
#375
The shift has now firmly taken hold, that it is Tom Mulcair and not Justin Trudeau that has the best chance of taking Harper down. This a fundamental change that has taken place over the past few months amongst the Canadian electorate. All Tom's hard work in Question Period combined with Rachel Notley's earth-shattering massive blowout victory in Alberta has set the tone for the posibility now of a NDP majority Government. My hunch is that before all is said and done, the Liberals may have trouble holding onto the measely 34 seats they won last election. Remember the BS in the msp about how Tom's hard work was a waste of time.
NDP doubles Atlantic Canada support, at expense of Liberals 
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/ndp-doubles-atlantic...
Wed, 2015-06-10 14:42
#376
While the NDP has the advantage I am not discounting at least the possibility of reversal. There are some significant risks to the NDP at the moment the BQ is one and the fallout over the satellite offices has not been managed well. The NDP have not posted in a single accessible case its side of the story. It is disturbing to hear the NDP lawsuit is being restarted by people other than the NDP. The NDP seems to want to wish this will die down and it won't. The NDP either should press for a resolution in court or explain its case to the public and it is not doing either well at this moment.
I actually understand the issue well enough to know that the NDP ought to be able to address this better than it has -- the NDP does have a good case to make and must do so. There should be a backgrounder on the webstie they can point to and NDP advocates can use when this comes up -- which it does.
Some stuff you leave undignified, some stuff you must respond to. This falls in the second category and the NDP is mistaking it for the first.
Wed, 2015-06-10 14:43
#377
Political polling is huge in the scheme of things because people are sheep when it comes to voting, and they like to go with a winner regardless of who the winner is or what they represent. And once the idea is entrenched it is very hard to turn it around. Look how long Tom had been wailing away in QP before things began to change. And when I say Tom I obviously mean the whole NDP Caucus. It is just that so much media attention revolves around the Leader.
NDP support on rise in Nova Scotia, Liberals falling, according to new poll
http://metronews.ca/news/halifax/1391474/ndp-support-on-rise-in-nova-sco...
Wed, 2015-06-10 15:59
#378
I'm happy to see the results from CRA about the Atlantic. Things are improving.
Wed, 2015-06-10 18:10
#379
Arthur Cramer
It's pretty lear despite all the pro LPC shilling au contraire, that Canadians are wising up and appear to see the NDP as the ONLY real choice for change! This is encoraing, but there is stil a lot of time to the election. Maybe they are realizing Justin Trudeau=Steven Harper!
Wed, 2015-06-10 19:39
#380
It's pretty lear despite all the pro LPC shilling au contraire, that Canadians are wising up and appear to see the NDP as the ONLY real choice for change! This is encoraing, but there is stil a lot of time to the election. Maybe they are realizing Justin Trudeau=Steven Harper!
Arthur, some of us have been saying for years..."Liberal-Tory...same old story!'
Thu, 2015-06-11 02:25
#381
The UBC stock market has the NDP leading in the popular vote share market.
Would you mind explaining what that is?
It is an experimental market set up by a prof at UBC that aims to predict elections based on how much real money people are willing to pay for "shares" in various outcomes. It is where I have made considerable pocket change over the last several weeks selling the Liberals short.
Looking forward to the 193 shares of "NDP majority government" that I purchased for 5 cents apiece to pay off at a dollar apiece in October! :)
That sounds very cool. I don't think you will get the payout you are counting on but I do admit things are not looking good for the Liberals right now.
Thu, 2015-06-11 13:17
#382
NDP strength surges across Atlantic region
http://www.theguardian.pe.ca/Opinion/Editorials/2015-06-11/article-41787...
Thu, 2015-06-11 15:17
#383
Barred candidate asks court to intervene in Kanata Conservative nomination
http://www.canada.com/News/canada/Barred+candidate+asks+court+intervene+...
Thu, 2015-06-11 15:38
#384
There may be another interesting EKOS tomorrow:
kevin russell@kevinrnsAppears Frank Graves, president of EKOS polling is implying next week's poll with be shocker. Harper falling hard, #NDP still rising.
Thu, 2015-06-11 15:40
#385
To be honest, I'm a little nervous as things go into the summer, because voters seem to move in unpredictable ways. But if the summer is starting how I hope it is...
Thu, 2015-06-11 15:47
#386
There may be another interesting EKOS tomorrow:
Appears Frank Graves, president of EKOS polling is implying next week's poll with be shocker. Harper falling hard, #NDP still rising.
I hope so. The Forum poll, while not terrible, still just bummed me out. Hopefully this one shows both the Cons and Libs hitting new lows with the NDP rising. Well, guess I'll wait and see.
Thu, 2015-06-11 15:48
#387
https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/608606760937648128
Frank Graves: "the LPCin slow decline but CPC are real story IMHO Now mid twenties/meagre growth opps, Harper tanking, moribund economy"
Commenter: "When did CPC really start to decline? Looked pretty steady at 29-30 up until 2-3 weeks ago. Are they still declining? ... And are NDP still moving ?"
Frank Graves: "yes"
Thu, 2015-06-11 20:03
#388
At the moment anyways, Frank Graves seems to have his finger on the Canadian voter's pulse. Bruce Anderson, not so much.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...
Thu, 2015-06-11 20:36
#389
While the NDP has the advantage I am not discounting at least the possibility of reversal.
Sean in Ottawa its OVER for the Liberals.
Thu, 2015-06-11 20:59
#390
Why do you say that?
The Liberals, like the Cons, have the big bucks, to buy the voters, much more than the NDP.
Thu, 2015-06-11 21:04
#391
Why do you say that?
The Liberals, like the Cons, have the big bucks, to buy the voters, much more than the NDP.
Olivia Chow has twice as much money than Doug Ford and she finished WAY behind in third place.
No amount of money can reverse a CHANGE election.
Justin Trudeau - IT'S OVER!
Thu, 2015-06-11 21:32
#392
Why do you say that?
The Liberals, like the Cons, have the big bucks, to buy the voters, much more than the NDP.
They're too busy spending that cash blasting each.others reputations to pieces. By the time.they turn.they're guns on Mulcair his popularity and the NDP will hopefully be entrenched. Still take nothing for granted, too much is at stake.
Thu, 2015-06-11 21:34
#393
That's gonna soon change.
Thu, 2015-06-11 21:34
#394
https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/608606760937648128
Frank Graves: "the LPCin slow decline but CPC are real story IMHO Now mid twenties/meagre growth opps, Harper tanking, moribund economy"
Commenter: "When did CPC really start to decline? Looked pretty steady at 29-30 up until 2-3 weeks ago. Are they still declining? ... And are NDP still moving ?"
Frank Graves: "yes"
Hmm. CPC in decline. NDP slowly moving up. Libs slowly moving down. Well, back in March of 2013, I did write:
I feel it will be a close three way race, with the Conservatives losing out in Ontario. It will begin to have the feel of a contest between the NDP and Liberals for first, with the Cons potentially coming in third. Why do I feel this way? Because my gut tells me so!
People sneered at me then, but he who laughs last laughs loudest. It's gonna happen. NDP first, then Libs, and Cons last.
If the Cons sink to 25% or lower and the Libs and NDP battle it out for first, then we can be spared the inane call for strategic voting, and actually vote on the basis of who we actually feel will serve our interests best.
Thu, 2015-06-11 21:58
#395
https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/608606760937648128
Frank Graves: "the LPCin slow decline but CPC are real story IMHO Now mid twenties/meagre growth opps, Harper tanking, moribund economy"
Commenter: "When did CPC really start to decline? Looked pretty steady at 29-30 up until 2-3 weeks ago. Are they still declining? ... And are NDP still moving ?"
Frank Graves: "yes"
Wonderful news concerning both parties. Put Harper in 3rd and I will be doing the happy dance no matter who is in first.
Thu, 2015-06-11 22:47
#396
The voters are rejecting the cynical politics of the old parties, and embracing real change.
Fri, 2015-06-12 08:31
#397
Grenier and the CBC are finally acknowledging that Liberals losing steam as election approaches, polls suggest. His conclusion is:
After leading in the polls for so long, momentum is turning against them at the worst possible time. They will have the opportunity to reverse these trends once the election campaign begins in earnest. But rather than campaigning as the front runners, the Liberals could find themselves chasing the Conservatives and New Democrats once the writ finally drops.
Fri, 2015-06-12 13:37
#398
Let's get serious about pollsters in Canada
Forum had a VP try for a Liberal nomination - this has to be a huge conflict of interest I would not give their polling results the time of day
Abacus Data
Bruce Anderson cannot seem to write anything that does not somehow favour the Liberals
For me their polls are suspect
Ekos seem to have their finger on the pulse of the nation at least presently and the fact that the mainstream press will not publicize the EKOS results confirms its accuracy
We have seen the mess going on recently at the CBC
Wonder if Canadians appreciate being conned and deceived by some of our pollsters and our mainstream press
Fri, 2015-06-12 23:10
#399
When you encounter folks that tell you the NDP will never obtain a majority government just say uh huh, and Alberta would never elect an NDP government either.
Sat, 2015-06-13 01:20
#400
Last week the Toronto Star had a poll tracker on their website publicizing the bullshit Liberal-pimping Forum poll.
But now that there is an EKOS poll out today showing disaster for the Liberals, the EKOS poll nor the poll tracker are nowhere to be found on the Toronto Star website.
Before the Star goes too far in accusing the CBC of lack of ethics maybe the Toronto Star might want to clean up its own back yard first.
And why are are Toronto Star employees keeping quiet about this?
Sat, 2015-06-13 01:28
#401
So which mainstream media have reported the details about the EKOS poll released today?