Latest polling thread April 28th, 2015

 The Star won't work for me right now, what are the numbers?

Another outlier by forum they sure have a lot of those

For me what I find the most encouragig is that the younger demographics, the one the Liberals said Justin would just vacum up, are solidly NDP supporers! I got so irritated at listenng to the Libs saying youth would be attracted to Justin like bees to honey. The trend is definitely there over several polls now. However, as I said, it is possible the NDP will collpase, but I don't know why. But if they did, at least its a real joy watching the Libs squirm while they try to figure out why kids aren't flocking to him. Its nice to know kids seem to be a lot smarter then their stupid grand parents. And if I offended anyone with this ast sentance look at the poll and tell me older Canadians don't want Tories. I am sick of how stupid older Canadians are. I am sick of it. They keep voting for Tories who will put the boots to their Grand children. What a bunch of stupid, selfish SOBS!

onlinediscountanvils wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Another outlier by forum they sure have a lot of those

So... NorthReport... what's this all about:

NorthReport wrote:

oldv,

I expected to hear from the people who supported the right-wing Wynne Liberals in the Ontario election. So you are kinda confirming my hunch abourt Leadnow.

What he is saying is that Leadnow is a reflecton of Liberals who voted for Wynne, and think the Liberals and the NDP are interchangeable. Or worse yet, that the Libs and Wynee, are "progressive". And while we are at it, I hate the use of the word progressive. It is simply a way to try and draw the Libs closer to the NDP by implying that somehow the Libs are in their soul, a party that puts social welfare ahead of fiscal welfare to try and fool NDPers into voting Lib. This is ENITRELY about, trying to dupe people into voting Liberal, and for that air head, Le Dauphin.

terrytowel wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Another outlier by forum they sure have a lot of those

It is worth noting that Forum was the ONLY pollster to correctly call the Toronto mayor race

That Doug Ford would be nipping at John Tory heels

They had Tory at 39% Ford at 37% and Chow 22%

Final numbers were Tory 40% Ford 33% Chow 23%

Just like Chow at exactly one year ago today. Once you slip to third, you stay there.

North Report you have to face facts.

For the Liberals and Justin Trudeau IT'S OVER!

I have answered this in the thread about the Forum polls.

No it is not over for the Liberals.

And the party in the worst position is in fact the Conservatives --  they have the highest expectation, the least ability to work with anyone and are mired in a position from which there is likely no recovery. If the Conservatives drop further this will likely keep the Liberals above water. It puts the Liberals in reach of the NDP during the campaign and sets them up for a good finish. The NDP is fighting a three front war -- against the BQ in Quebec; against the Conservatives in the rest of Canada and against the NDP from Manitoba East. The NDP has to win two out of three of those to win a government and all three convincingly to get a majority.

I almost wonder if the strategy here is to say it is over for the Liberals so everyone defends them. Not a good plan. Defending the reality that this is a wide open election is not the same as defending the LPC.

You can't cheer for the polls you like and then ignore the polls you don't like. 

The whole point is that polls are NEVER accurate. Even the MOST accurate one on the DAY before the election is wrong by a few points. Imagine how wrong the polls are now, four months out from the actual election.

So what's the point of polls then? If you believe the media, it's just a horserace, and we're just keeping score from a bunch of different teams, talking about how one team is doing everything right, and Canadians are rejecting the other teams. That is, until Canadians change their mind, and the media analysis completely changes.

The real point of polls, if there's even a point, is to compare many of them. Adding them up can tell you a trend. And somewhere between them is definitely some kernal of truth, at least as it stands today. 

Things the polls are telling us:

• The Conservatives have been in free fall since 2011, which they have only been able to stop with heightened Islamophobia.
• The NDP under Mulcair could form a minority government. I could have told you that 3 years ago.
• The Liberals under Trudeau could also form a minority government, *if* they can convince progressives they're the only ones who can stop Harper.
• At this moment in time, people believe the NDP are more positioned to stop Harper than the Liberals.
• Recent polls show it is possible for the NDP to do better in the "ROC" than what seemed possible, particularly in Alberta.
• There is only one poll since Duceppe became leader, and it has a small bump, well within the margin of error. Without any other polls, it is impossible to confirm or deny that the small bump is real or statistical noise.
• The electorate is very much in flux and will change their mind before election day. 

But the point that a lot of us miss (probably myself included) is we should spend less time cheering and criticizing the different polls, and more time actually working to make sure the actual election results reflect the best possible polling situation.

This could be the NDP's peak, or the peak could be yet to come. That's up to us. 

 The only point in polls is to use them to spin propaganda for your side, they're snap shots of yesterday with questionable results, so spin away!

Northern-54 -  thanks again for this.

Worth repeating especially in light of today's poll

Northern-54 wrote:

I consider Angus Reid pro-Conservative but because of their online polling methods, NDP leaning with polls because more young people use internet than old.

I consider Ipsos Reid pro-Conservative

I consider EKOS pro-Liberal, particularly during elections

I consister Nanos pro-Conservative and anti-NDP, particularly during elections

I consisder Abacus pro-Liberal

I consider Forum so pro-Liberal that their poll results cannot be trusted

I consider 308 pro-Liberal and view the way his poll aggregator between elections to be skewed because it includes polls that are significantly out-of-date all the time

EPP, Toronto Star, CBC pro-Liberal to the point that I don't read/watch them

Postmedia and National Post so pro-Conservative I don't read them

CTV -pro-Conservative but professional enough to give a semblance of balanced news coverage

CBC Politics - pro-Liberal to the point I don't consider it a serious show

CBC At Issues Panel - hard to consider the program as reputable given it does not include an NDP panelist most of the time

Global TV - pro-Conservative but professional enough to give a semblance of balanced news coverage

Babble - generally pro-NDP, almost always anti-Conservative

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

onlinediscountanvils wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

onlinediscountanvils wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Another outlier by forum they sure have a lot of those

So... NorthReport... what's this all about:

NorthReport wrote:

oldv,

I expected to hear from the people who supported the right-wing Wynne Liberals in the Ontario election. So you are kinda confirming my hunch abourt Leadnow.

What he is saying is that Leadnow is a reflecton of Liberals who voted for Wynne, and think the Liberals and the NDP are interchangeable. Or worse yet, that the Libs and Wynee, are "progressive". And while we are at it, I hate the use of the word progressive. It is simply a way to try and draw the Libs closer to the NDP by implying that somehow the Libs are in their soul, a party that puts social welfare ahead of fiscal welfare to try and fool NDPers into voting Lib. This is ENITRELY about, trying to dupe people into voting Liberal, and for that air head, Le Dauphin.

No, Arthur, that's not what he's saying.

The fact is rightly or wrongly a lot of people who were not right wing supported the Liberals in the last provincial election and are not standing with them right now.

Better to stop fighting the last election and look to the next.

Maybe so. I was never one of those people. That shit has to stop.

Canada's left-leaning NDP seeks to allay fiscal fears as support surges

The NDP, viewed as the furthest left among major political parties, is suddenly the center of attention as its tops the polls, opening the possibility that it could form a federal government for the first time.

With that in mind, Nathan Cullen, 42, who would be a candidate for finance minister in an NDP government, said in an interview that his party realizes its views leave it with a higher bar to meet to persuade voters it will be fiscally responsible.

Party leader Thomas Mulcair took the same tack as he laid out the NDP's economic platform on Wednesday, pledging more support for the middle class and manufacturing.

"We, in a sense, think we have to do better than the other parties when it comes to costing and the veracity of our offering, and that's fine," Cullen said.

The former small business owner said the NDP would institute corporate tax hikes, but stressed "there won't be any surprises", though he declined to give a figure.

---

While the NDP has never formed a federal government, it has been the government in several provinces and took power in Canada's oil-rich Alberta last month, ending a 44-year Conservative reign. The NDP victory in Alberta, once unthinkable, has set the stage for a strong challenge to Harper, whose Conservatives have been in power in Ottawa for nine years.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCAKBN0OY2K220150618

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/06/18/federal-ndp-now-leading-in...

Amazing to see the tories in third but again can we believe we are ahead in Ontario and nipping at their heels in Alberta?

All three of the leading parties are tied in Ontario, with the NDP at 33 per cent, the Liberals at 31 per cent and the Conservatives at 30 per cent.

In Quebec, the NDP are out front with 31 per cent backing them, the Bloc under returning leader Gilles Duceppe at 26 per cent, and the Liberals, 24 per cent. The Conservatives don’t contend in Quebec, (15 per cent), the poll found.

In Alberta, which elected an NDP government provincially May 5, the federal NDP is very close (35%) behind the dominant Conservatives (39%) in support, according to Forum’s latest survey. The Liberals are favoured by 19 per cent of respondents.

This is a trick question: What does CBC, Toronto Star, 308, Abacus Data & Forum Reseach have in common?  

NorthReport wrote:

This is a trick question: What does CBC, Toronto Star, 308, Abacus Data & Forum Reseach have in common?  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3qA0G6z9E0

NDP down nationally and in Quebec due to BQ rise -- still in first place but barely.

NDP 30 CPC 29 LPC 25

In Quebec NDP down to 28 vs 24 for BQ and 25 for Liberals -- CPC at 18

Headline says vote splits favour CPC but no evidence of that just more of the same presumptions.

Also you can see two other things:

The Liberals lead in Manitoba

NDP supporters not as wild about Senate abolition as you might think -- less than a majority want abolition. Reform vs abolition is quite a split. Nobody wants the status quo.

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/06/19/the-ekos-poll-bloc-eats-into-ndp-lead-vot...

In Chow's case there was an event, although it was private, and not talked about much in the public domain, when the Liberals and the Cons got together and decided on Tory to be the candidate to run against Chow.

Commons calls it quits with polls showing NDP lead in pre-election steeple chase

A series of public opinion polls beginning in mid-May have now coalesced to put the New Democrats and Tom Mulcair at the front of the pack, with Harper's Conservatives slowly losing ground in second place and Justin Trudeau's previously buoyant Liberals huffing along in third.

"It's the (polling) consistency that gets the attention of the chattering classes and the media," pollster Donna Dasko, a former senior vice-president at Environics, said in an interview.

Recent national polls have put NDP support as high as 36 per cent and the Liberals as low as 23 per cent, with the Tories somewhere in between — a virtual mirror-image reversal of public opinion samples from as late as March of this year.

The new dynamic was vividly illustrated by the coverage of two major speeches in the last week of the parliamentary sitting.

Mulcair's economic speech on Toronto's Bay Street on Tuesday was widely portrayed in the media as a "government-in-waiting" play to salve any lingering concerns of the financial establishment.

Trudeau, meanwhile, presented a big democratic reform package that was framed as a "desperate" campaign "re-set" due to slipping poll numbers.

Swap Mulcair and Trudeau's positions in the public opinion surveys — as they were at the end of March — and the motivations and impact of the same two speeches this week might have been framed entirely differently.

"I always like to see contrarian analysis but you don't tend to see that," said Dasko. "Analyses go in waves — and the new wave is that Tom Mulcair is doing well and Trudeau is doing badly and Harper is doing badly."

Those passing waves create interest in politics, says Dasko, which is a positive thing, but they're not predictive. She cites the collapse of support for Toronto mayoral candidate Olivia Chow last summer, a polling reverse that could not be linked to any particular event.

http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2015/06/19/commons-calls-it-quits-with-...

josh wrote:

Graph says one thing, text another. 

Not to me -- but perhaps you are confusing the national graph with the Ontario numbers. The text starts with those rather than the national numbers and thast could cause confusion if youa re reading quickly. It made me pause anyway.

NorthReport wrote:

Before folks get too carried away with Gilles Duceppe's return remember the Bloc only got 4 seats but had 23.4% of the vote in Quebec in 2011.

The Bloc was floundering and it would not have been beneficial to the PQ if the Bloc got no seats in October.

That is the only reason Duceppe was brought in. 

Yes but the polling numbers relate to the national and do reduce national numbers for a time and this can reduce the gap to the Liberals and make it less like the NDP is the only opposition party in the race.

NorthReport wrote:

True, but only up to a point as the Liberals are still dropping in Quebec, another 3% drop this month, and a 15% drop since December, as we see in the CROP poll released this weekend.

With the substantial lack of support for the Liberals in Quebec now, it would not surprise me to see some or many of those anglophone voters reaching the tipping point and going elsewhere in the October election. Mulcair may well pleasantly surprise us in anglophone Quebec too.  

Perhaps but we might not see any indication of this until late September or early October when things heat up.

Maybe they are unhappy with all the polls showing the NDP out front, eh!  

New association aims to enhance quality of public opinion polls and research

http://www.timescolonist.com/new-association-aims-to-enhance-quality-of-...

 I hope its OVER for both Stephen and Justin!

 Sick of them both already.

Hopefully if he becomes Prime Minister, Tom Mulcair will do the same thing federally.

How much longer do Canadian have to put with people like Trudeau and Harper buying the electorate?

Rachel Notley’s Bill 1: Keep big money out of politics at every level

http://metronews.ca/voices/urban-compass-calgary/1403761/rachel-notleys-...

New Forum numbers: NDP 36%, Con 28%, Lib 28%

Thomas Mulcair’s New Democrats have widened their lead in the latest horse race polling from Forum Research.

Forum puts the NDP at 36 per cent nationally among decided voters, a comfortable margin over the Conservatives and Liberals, who are tied at 28 per cent.

With four months to go before October’s election, Forum projects the NDP could capture 149 seats — just 21 shy of forming a majority government.

Regionally, the New Democrats lead in the three largest provinces — British Columbia (54 per cent), Quebec (36 per cent), and Ontario (34 per cent). But the worst news from the Forum poll for the Conservatives is not their place among decided voters — it’s that they appear to have little room to grow.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/06/25/ndp-widens-lead-in-new-for...

54% in BC?

Mulcair #NDP would still be leading even if *every* Con/Lib swing voter went for the Liberals. http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/305/nearing-majority-with-stronghold-in-bc …

So Pondering how can you say it is not OVER for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals?

You know it. I know it, everyone on this board knows it,

With the exception of Sean, you are the ONLY person who is clinging on to hope.

That has been dashed, it is gone. IT'S OVER!

The sooner you face facts,  the better it is for you.

Now we can start to talk about who will make cabinet in the first NDP federal government.

tt, 

Because of the Liberal media fog, please give us your assessment of what is actually changing in Ontario.

Thanks.