Olivia Chow now running federally
Even should the NDP wave hold until October, don't count on it sweeping Vaughan away. Though still, IMO, Lockyer would be the stronger candidate.
I agree. Already on Twitter there is a bit of backlash at Chow for wasting money on a by-election if she was just going to run again.
When she was contemplating a run for Mayor, she outpolled Adam Vaughan downtown by a mile. And even in her loss, with John Tory on the rise, she dominated downtown with almost 50% of the vote.
You were right the first time, Terry. It's OVER for the Liberals.
Chow actually only won THREE HALVES of Three Federal ridings.
She won half of Trinity-Spadina (ward 19) Tory won the other half (ward 20)
She won half of Davenport (ward 18) and Tory won the other half (ward 17)
And she won half Parkdale-High Park (ward 14) while Tory won the other half (ward 13)
So she won three halves of three federal ridings.
Hardly DOMINATING the GTA (with socialdemocraticmiddle claiming Chow ran off with 50% of the vote), as she lost Toronto Danforth, Toronto Centre, Beaches-East York, Toronto-St. Pauls, Eglinton-Lawrence and Don Valley East and Don Valley West.
see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_mayoral_election,_2014
In addition she lost Scarborough, she lost North York, she lost Etobicoke.
What did she win? Only Three halves of those three federal DT ridings.
Hardly a SLAM-DUNK.
Olivia does have a point.
Mulcair Keeping Fingers Crossed For Olivia Chow Comeback
A CP24 reporter asked Chow about her intentions during Toronto's Pride parade Sunday. While the ex-MP said she was happy teaching, Chow admitted there are some things in federal politics that bother her.
"Like (Bill) C-51," she said, referring to the Conservative government's anti-terror legislation. "How could anyone say that they oppose it and then they vote for it?"
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/06/29/thomas-mulcair-olivia-chow-2015-...
If you add up her 44% win in one half of Trinity Spadina to her 47% win in the other half of Trinity Spadina, that's more than good enough to win the new Spadina-Fort York riding.
You're right again: IT'S OVER for the Liberals in downtown Toronto.
So much for her Dominating (your words) DT Toronto with 50% of the vote.
Thanks for the link, terry! Ward 19 is Downtown Toronto, in the former Trinity-Spadina.
If you add up her 44% win in one half of Trinity Spadina to her 47% win in the other half of Trinity Spadina, that's nearly 50%, and more than good enough to win the new Spadina-Fort York riding.
You're right again: IT'S OVER for the Liberals in downtown Toronto.
Most parties would kill for 47% in a riding (3 points shy of 50%, if you want to nitpick). In a three-way race, that's dominant.
IT'S OVER for the Liberals (your words).
I agree. Already on Twitter there is a bit of backlash at Chow for wasting money on a by-election if she was just going to run again.
Well unfortunately in Canada we have this silly law (that seems not to exist in any other country i know if) whereby you are forced to resign your oseat if you want to run for office at another level of government. If we didn't have that law, she could have run for mayor and kept her seat and only resigned if she had won. Would it have mattered if during the mayoral campaign she had said "if i lose, I plan to run to win back my seat in parliament"? Does anyone ever say that?
and who the hell cxares about what is said on twitter where about 12 people tweet anything on this topic and all of them are paid staffers for either the NDP or the Liberals!
Ok here’s a bit of inside Baseball on how this is most likely playing out either in the party or by groups belonging to the party. (I hope I don't get burned by this)
There are two possibilities, first is the party has always known that Olivia was going to comeback but they've been waiting for the right time for her to declare (high/low poll number depending on the narrative). So the article was written to let voters know that she's coming back and to excite the riding EDA and to begin to lay the groundwork for her campaign.
The second option is that Olivia, or a group pushing for her to run, ok’ed the article as a means of testing the waters to see how people respond or to scare potential candidates from entering the race in S-FY.
Or both.
Full disclosure on this, I was considering running for the S-FY nomination, since at the time there was still no candidate (there technically still isn't). At that time I assumed our polling was too low and Vaughan too popular for a big name to waste their time and energy on a losing campaign, so I figured, me, a nobody NDP activist from Richmond Hill might as well step up at least to get the ball rolling. After not having any luck contacting the S-FY EDA I contacted the party, who implied the riding was not as inactive as I assumed. (FYI this is actually rather normal assumption on my part, with ridings that have been that split like T-Sp the old exec now has to organize three really great ridings it makes sense that S-FY would have been neglected, against because of Vaughan.)
So you can see why I'm almost 100% sure it's one or the other, the only logical conclusion is she's either going to run or someone is trying to get her to run. S-FY is too important of a riding to not have a candidate 3 months out from an election.
Also I'm really excited at the possibility of Olivia returning as an NDP MP, I think that she's a great advocate for the GTA as a whole.
TT: And when she ran for mayor, Jack Layton wasn't there. She got those results entirely on her own. Also, mayor races are non-partisan. She distanced herself formally from the NDP so that party politics would not become a campaign issue.
TT: And when she ran for mayor, Jack Layton wasn't there. She got those results entirely on her own. Also, mayor races are non-partisan. She distanced herself formally from the NDP so that party politics would not become a campaign issue.
Did we watch the same Mayor race? She has the backing of the NDP all the way.
Hepburn must be writing his attack columns as we speak.
i have heard there is a mainstreet technologies poll to be released tomorrow on a possible Chow vs Vaughan race in S-FY
TofC, I don't understand what you are arguing about. TT said that 95% of Chinese Canadians in the GTA do not like Olivia Chow and that she won her federal elections because the Chinese Canadian community liked Jack Layton but not her. The mayor election results for wards 18 and 19 graphed earlier, showed a very strong voter support for Olivia Chow (47%?} which lies in her former constituency of Trinity-Spading. This showing very clearly proves that what TT alleged before is totally unfounded. She got those results entirely on her own and they voted for her and not for Jack Layton. The second point about her distancing herself from the NDP was true. She even removed her NDP affiliation off her Wikipedia bio during her mayoral run to make the race a non-partisan one. This does not mean that NDP people did not support her nor that she changed her essential core values in any way. Municipal elections are non-partisan and she did everything she could as a high profile NDP mayoral candidate to keep her political history from interfering with her municipal campaign which is exactly what she was supposed to do. People like TT denounce Chow for distancing herself from the NDP for being an opportunist. I disagree with is viewpoint and feel that she had to put partisan politics on the sidelines to run municipally.
TofC, I checked her wiki bio and she still has herself listed as an Independent.
Olivia Chow boosts Alberta NDP at leader’s nomination meeting
Rachel Notley takes shot at premier, calls him Grim Jim
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Olivia+Chow+boosts+Alberta+leader+nominat...
Olivia Chow boosts Alberta NDP at leader’s nomination meeting
Rachel Notley takes shot at premier, calls him Grim Jim
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Olivia+Chow+boosts+Alberta+leader+nominat...
NR, that article is from March 2, 2015.
The mayor election results for wards 18 and 19 graphed earlier, showed a very strong voter support for Olivia Chow (47%?} which lies in her former constituency of Trinity-Spading.
Trinity Spadina is made up of ward 19 and 20, NOT ward 18 and 19
Chow did lose ward 20 to Tory. But everyone seems to want to dismiss that by saying you have to add up both ward 19 and ward 20. That way the narrative on this board is that she won Trinity Spadina. If you add both wards, John Tory only lost to Olivia by 2,700 votes. Hardly a runaway win. Rather a win by the narrowest of margins.
If she is so popular in T-S, why she win by a larger margin?
This showing very clearly proves that what TT alleged before is totally unfounded. She got those results entirely on her own and they voted for her and not for Jack Layton..
The Layton name still carries weight in ward 19. She won ward 19, on the strength that it is Mike Layton ward. The residents in ward 19 love Mike Laton and still have affection for Jack Layton. In ward 19 the Layton legacy is god.
Chinatown, Kensington Market, Little Italy, the University of Toronto and Christie Pits is moving to University-Rosedale. That would be a big blow to Olivia Chow as the residents of Kensington Market (where I used to live) and UofT students were her main base.
I volunteered on the Mike Layton campaign and Olivia Chow orchestrated a lot of the campaign. She organized a lot of people and made tons of phone calls to people in the Asian community in Trinity-Spadina.
Everyone in Toronto was trying to vote strategically for John Tory to get Doug Ford out. If Olivia could still win 44-47% of the vote in Trinity-Spadina under those circumstances, then that shows how loyal her base is.
If "IT'S OVER" when the NDP is polling in the low 30s federally, how "OVER" is it when Olivia polls in the mid 40s? You'd be hard pressed to find someone who lost their riding with those numbers.
TT, One can argue that it is extremely sexist and denigrating to imply that she didn't win her elections on her own accord but rather that people only voted for her because of the popularity of others that she is associated with. She did all of this on her own merit, period. She works very hard and she has earned a lot of credibility and respect through her many years of hard work and her dedication to all the causes she supports.
Mainstreet Technologies just released a poll on a hypothetical Chow vs Vaughan matchup and Olivia chow would beat Adam Vaughan 44% to 36%
In that light, it's worth noting that in Wards 19 and 20 combined, Olivia got 44.20%, Tory got 40.46%.
double post
TT, One can argue that it is extremely sexist and denigrating to imply that she didn't win her elections on her own accord but rather that people only voted for her because of the popularity of others that she is associated with..
It is not sexist. I'm just telling you what the Chinese/Chinatown community think otherwise of her. They just see her as an opportunist, riding on the Layton name that is beloved in Chinatown. It should be noted in other parts of heavily populated Chinese areas (Scarborough and East Chinatown) the Chinese community voted against her. Because they cannot stand her. She lost ward 20 which is where Chinatown is located.
I volunteered on the Mike Layton campaign and Olivia Chow orchestrated a lot of the campaign. She organized a lot of people and made tons of phone calls to people in the Asian community in Trinity-Spadina.
Yes and she was out there using the Layton name for her mayoral race when she was making those phone calls. Supposedly on Mike Layton's behalf. Which is why she won Mike Layton's ward 19 (my step-son is Mike Layton!) and not ward 20
Remember what Bill Clinton said in 1992 in regards to Hillary? "Buy one, get one free". Olivia was using the same pitch in those phone calls. Except her pitch was "two for one, a twofer"
In that light, it's worth noting that in Wards 19 and 20 combined, Olivia got 44.20%, Tory got 40.46%.
Not the runaway win. If she has such a power base in Trinity-Spadina, why wasn't the blowout a much bigger percentage? I know you guys are going to say strategic voting. But if she could win ward 19, why not both wards that make up Trinity-Spadina? Especially since ward 20 holds her two most powerful voting bases. Kensington Market and University of Toronto. Both those voting blocks are her base. Yet she lost that ward to John Tory.
If she runs in Spadina-Fort York she loses much of her past voting coalition, Kensington Market and University of Toronto.
But then again Olivia Chow is Teflon on rabbble. She can do no wrong.
Even in the dying days of the mayor race, babblers were still insisting that she was going to win. Even though every poll put her in third place.
On rabble you cannot one-up Olivia Chow to babblers!
Many people on rabble have criticized Olivia Chow, especially when she didn't endorse Joe in the race vs. Adam. None of the matters now, Olivia Chow can beat Vaughan, that is all that matters.
Find a riding where someone wins 44%, let alone 47% of the vote, and still loses. Not saying it never happens, but it's so rare in a 3-way race as to be grasping at straws. And if people are going to vote NDP to stop Harper...
For the Liberals and Justin Trudeau
IT'S OVER!
Find a riding where someone wins 44%, let alone 47% of the vote, and still loses.
1988 then PC candidate Kim Campbell BEAT NDP Johanna den Hertog by only 5% in Vancouver Centre
More closer race in 1993 Liberal Anne McLellan BEAT Reform Richard Kayler by only 12 votes in Edmonton Northwest
Richard Kayler lost with 35% percent of the vote, and Joahanna den Hertog lost with 36% of the vote.
Olivia Chow's base is nearly half of Trinity-Spadina -- 44-47%. Those people will vote with her no matter what, even when she's clearly in third place overall, and people are faced with the risk of a polarizing figure like Doug Ford.
How often does a candidate lose with 44% of the vote, let alone 47% of the vote?
It's rare. I'll give you a hint: you'd have to look in provinces like Saskatchewan or PEI, where third parties are almost invisible.
Meaning that Adam Vaughan stands a chance, like balancing an egg on the head of a pin...
Or if you prefer...
IT'S OVER
The Libs should just pack up and go home
There is no way to recover from the NDP momentum.
Again her coalition that put her over the top, Kensington Market and University of Toronto, will be in University-Rosedale.
But then again that coalition did vote against her, as Ward 20 went to John Tory.
I can't see how she can win Spadina-Fort York without her past coalition to support her.
http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/2015/06/30/chow-a-contender-for-spadina...
– Olivia Chow leads 36% to 30% over Adam Vaughan if she entered the race
– Among decided voters it is 44% to 36%
– Vaughan leads Chow among undecided voters; though it is within the margin of error
Olivia Chow has 44% of decided voters! Where have I heard that number before? Anyone?
Undecided voters are split between Vaughan and Chow roughly 50/50. Adam Vaughan would need to convert 75% of the undecided voters to edge out a narrow lead over Olivia.
He can only win that many votes if Liberals came back from 3rd place in a wave election.
How likely is that? As a wise friend of mine once said...
As a tactical voter, whoever is in first progressives will coalesce around.
Right now it is the NDP, and voters wanting to vote tactically have to go with NDP
As the Liberals have slipped to third
Which is why I'm saying for Justin Trudeau IT'S OVER!
And Mainstreet was the same polling firm that said the Fords retain 25% support from committed NDP voters.
TT, when you allege that a female candidate cannot win on her own merit and that people only vote for her because of the reputation of the men in her life, that is extremely sexist, and it is deplorable. STOP IT!
TT, when you allege that a female candidate cannot win on her own merit and that people only vote for her because of the reputation of the men in her life, that is extremely sexist, and it is deplorable. STOP IT!
I'm not saying that. I'm just saying what the Chinese community in the GTA feel, which I am a part of.
Olivia Chow has a strong reputation in her own right, School Trustee, City Councillor, Artist, MP, Former Mayoral candiate, I've known people who actual didn't like Jack Layton, but really like Chow. Chow for her faults is a Champion in her own right.
Olivia Chow has a strong reputation in her own right, School Trustee, City Councillor, Artist, MP, Former Mayoral candiate
Has she ever had a job where she hasn't been on the public dime?
At least Jack can say he did. That is where the resentment from the Chinese community comes from.
Every poll has shown that she has a solid base of support with nearly half the old riding, with people of ALL races and ethnicities. People are going to be voting for the first NDP government and that's compelling for people who have voted to make her MP in the past.
The only thing she has to worry about is a Liberal wave election... are you worried TerryTowel?
Which is why I'm saying for Justin Trudeau IT'S OVER!
Olivia Chow has a strong reputation in her own right, School Trustee, City Councillor, Artist, MP, Former Mayoral candiate
Has she ever had a job where she hasn't been on the public dime?
At least Jack can say he did. That is where the resentment from the Chinese community comes from.
That is a disturbing statement to make. As if serving the public is something to be ashamed of or illegitimate.
I know this is a popular statement from Conservatives who do not believe public institutions or that the public service is legitimate but why do you feel that way? If you work hard for the public why the public a less worthy employer than a corporation? I would say that those who hold public service as a negative -- this public dime statement -- I have never heard that from a person who was particularly inclined to vote NDP. I haven't even heard that comment from Liberals.
While I am not Chinese I frequently speak to Chinese people about politics. I have not found them to be particularly monolithic in terms of political opinions. I have found some to detest politics entirely and anyone involved in it but others are interested and appreciate public service. Those who discuss politics with me have not led me to conclude that there is any single Chinese community view on anything or anyone to do with politics here. I can't say that Chinese opinions I have heard have been any less diverse than the opinions I hear from any others. On some topics I have heard some trends in opinion between Mainland Chinese, Hong Kong Chinese and Taiwanese but when it came to Canadian politics I have not found these categories to be a fair predictor of how they feel about Canadian politics or even their level of interest in politics. I am surprised to hear this.
I wonder if Olivia is unpopular in your crowd or among those influential in your circle, but how do you know that this is representative? She seems to do well in the Chinese community.
Disagree with terrytowel - OK!
Callying him a troll - Not OK!
Here's what Warren Kinsella posted.
Not saying I agree with him but terrytowel is not the only one.
She blew a big lead before, she’ll do it again
He’ll beat her.
http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/06/she-blew-a-big-lead-before-shell-do-it...
Although Kinsella liks to a poll saying Chow will win 
http://www.torontosun.com/2015/06/30/chow-could-win-over-vaughan-poll
Sean in Ottawa I don't feel that way (about Politicians) , I'm just telling you why the Chinese community is very disenfranchised with her.
The Chinese community en masse voted for either John Tory or surprisingly Doug Ford. And not her.
The Chinese community sees long serving politicians (like Olviia) in politics akin to hanging on to a Iron Rice Bowl
Iron Rice Bowl (or Golden Bowl) is a chinese term. Google it, as this is all I'm going to say on this matter.
I'm proud to be a Chinese-Canadian from Chinatown (who also happens to be gay and a feminist!)
I'm just telling you how the Chinese community views her.
Like it or not, she doesn't have a base with the Chinese community. And she cannot bank on her coalition as Kensington Market and University of Toronto is now in University-Rosedale.
If you guys think this is a slam-dunk for her, more power to you.
However you guys are the same people that said in Feb that John Tory has zero chance of beating her, and look how that turned out.
I knew she wouldn't win from day one because the Chinese community doesn't support her.
If she runs in Spadina-Fort York the Chinese community would rather support Adam Vaughan or even the Conservatives! Shocking as that might seem, it is true.
Sean in Ottawa I don't feel that way (about Politicians) , I'm just telling you why the Chinese community is very disenfranchised with her.
The Chinese community en masse voted for either John Tory or surprisingly Doug Ford. And not her.
The Chinese community sees long serving politicians (like Olviia) in politics akin to hanging on to a Iron Rice Bowl
Iron Rice Bowl (or Golden Bowl) is a chinese term. Google it, as this is all I'm going to say on this matter.
I'm proud to be a Chinese-Canadian from Chinatown (who also happens to be gay and a feminist!)
I'm just telling you how the Chinese community views her.
Like it or not, she doesn't have a base with the Chinese community. And she cannot bank on her coalition as Kensington Market and University of Toronto is now in University-Rosedale.
If you guys think this is a slam-dunk for her, more power to you.
However you guys are the same people that said in Feb that John Tory has zero chance of beating her, and look how that turned out.
I knew she wouldn't win from day one because the Chinese community doesn't support her.
If she runs in Spadina-Fort York the Chinese community would rather support Adam Vaughan or even the Conservatives! Shocking as that might seem, it is true.
I did not claim she would win as mayor -- I was nervous through the whole thing.
I just find it as odd that anyone could speak for a whole community and that is what I am questioning.
I am sure many people may not like her but I would be shocked to hear that the Chinese community voted en masse for anything or anyone. Chinese people never struck me as particularly prone to groupthink. This is why I suggested perhaps this is just your circle.
Today's poll suggests it is very close -- pretty much a tie.
I did not claim she would win as mayor -- I was nervous through the whole thing.
I just find it as odd that anyone could speak for a whole community and that is what I am questioning.
I am sure many people may not like her but I would be shocked to hear that the Chinese community voted en masse for anything or anyone. Chinese people never struck me as particularly prone to groupthink. This is why I suggested perhaps this is just your circle.
Today's poll suggests it is very close -- pretty much a tie.
It goes back to the Iron Rice Bowl mentality and the resentment of those who have it. Like a politician.
No election or poll has ever confirmed what you said, terrytowel. If Olivia Chow lost voters in Scarborough (and the suburbs more broadly), it's because she was the only candidate opposed to a Scarborough subway. At this point you're ignoring all the data, and relying on your pulse on the "Chinese community". Unless you've talked to 400,000 people, that's not believable. It's not more believable than polls, and it's not more believable than the votes she's received in practice.
It's evident that you're personally disenchanted with Olivia Chow and you personally think she is an opportunist. But you don't get to ignore data and focus on a few conversations to generalize about literally thousands of people.
Last election the NDP got around 30% of the federal vote, and that was enough for Trinity-Spadina to be SOLID orange. Even the parts south of Dundas street, where the new riding has been drawn.
Just imagine what happens to that riding if the NDP polls above 30%.
a good amount of chinese people are social and ecnoomic conservative , thats why they dont like Chow. I woiuld not say Chow is universally hated by the chinese community. Her name recognition does have some extra influence on certain segement of the chinese population in downtown.
a good amount of chinese people are social and ecnoomic conservative , thats why they dont like Chow. I woiuld not say Chow is universally hated by the chinese community. Her name recognition does have some extra influence on certain segement of the chinese population in downtown.
I completely agree takeitslowly
Nice to have another Asian person perspective here.
a good amount of chinese people are social and ecnoomic conservative , thats why they dont like Chow. I woiuld not say Chow is universally hated by the chinese community. Her name recognition does have some extra influence on certain segement of the chinese population in downtown.
I completely agree takeitslowly
Nice to have another Asian person perspective here.
I am not so sure why you think this comment helps your argument. I agree with it by the way.
But the economic Conservatives were never the people Chow relied on to begin with.
So to sum: The Chinese people who were always philosophically opposed to Chow, still are.
AND there is great diversity in the Chinese community when it comes to political opinion -- including quite a number who were never part of her support base. I'd say this sounds like what I said.
AND there is great diversity in the Chinese community when it comes to political opinion -- including quite a number who were never part of her support base. I'd say this sounds like what I said.
Fair comment. In truth I guess Olivia can be a polarizing figure in the Chinese community for a variety of reasons, not just one.
TT, I looked up iron rice bowl. The public civil servants they refer to are the ones with lifetime job security. Olivia Chow has faced a review of her job by the public every three to four years with elections where she could be easily voted out if she was viewed by the public of not doing her job properly. That is not job security, not even close. And, she is currently a professor at Ryerson University.
Also, how much of the kind of "Chinese community" terrytowel speaks of *remains* in Trinity-Spadina/Spadina-Fort York? You might as well still be speaking of the Polish community on Roncesvalles as a barrier to NDP (re-)electability in Parkdale-High Park.
Another way of putting it: if the ethnic and cultural demos of a generation or two still held, Doug Ford would've done much better in said ridings.