NDP the political drivers
Latest polling thread April 28th, 2015
NDP - 35%
PCs - 32%
Libs - 26%
NDP maintains lead in Ontario
http://www.canada.com/News/politics/Gargoyle+Harper+with+controversial+W...
+
More devastating news for the Liberals in today's latest poll
Party / Pop Vote / Change
NDP - 32%, Unchanged
Cons - 32%, Up 5%
Libs - 26%, Down 3%
http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Federal%20Horserace%20News%20Release%...
--------------------
18,300
Which pollsters are showing the NDP quite strong in BC?
Insights West Poll
4 ridings in BC
Once again phenomenal results for the NDP who are either leading or in play in all four ridings, whereas the Liberals are only up in one of the ridings above the Liberal's disasterous results in the 2011 election.
North Vancouver - never been an NDP seat
Party / 2011 / Jul 7 '15 / Change
NDP / 16% / 19% / Up 3% - in the race
Cons / 49% / 24% / Down 25%
Libs / 30% / 25% / Down 5%
Grns / 5% / 11% / Up 6%
West Vancouver- Sunshine Coast - Sea-to-Sky - never been an NDP seat
Party / 2011 / Jul 7 '15 / Change
NDP / 15% / 19% / Up 4% - in the race
Cons / 29% / 22% / Down 7%
Libs / 14% / 23% / Up 9%
Grns / 5% / 9% / Up 4%
South Okanagan- West Kootenay - New seat
Party / Jul 7 '15
NDP / 44% - lead Cons by 24%
Cons / 20%
Libs / 9%
Grns / 5%
Vancouver South - never been an NDP seat
Party / 2011 / Jul 7 '15 / Change
NDP / 19% / 21% / Up 2%, in the race
Cons / 43% / 17% / Down 26%
Libs / 35% / 27% / Down 8%
Grns / 1% / 3% / Up 2%
https://dogwoodinitiative.org/media-centre/files/insights-west-polling-july
Insights West Poll
4 ridings in BC
Once again phenomenal results for the NDP who are either leading or in play in all four ridings, whereas the Liberals are only up in one of the ridings above the Liberal's disasterous results in the 2011 election.
North Vancouver - never been an NDP seat
Party / 2011 / Jul 7 '15 / Change
NDP / 16% / 19% / Up 3% - in the race
Cons / 49% / 24% / Down 25%
Libs / 30% / 25% / Down 5%
Grns / 5% / 11% / Up 6%
West Vancouver- Sunshine Coast - Sea-to-Sky - never been an NDP seat
Party / 2011 / Jul 7 '15 / Change
NDP / 15% / 19% / Up 4% - in the race
Cons / 29% / 22% / Down 7%
Libs / 14% / 23% / Up 9%
Grns / 5% / 9% / Up 4%
South Okanagan- West Kootenay - New seat
Party / Jul 7 '15
NDP / 44% - lead Cons by 24%
Cons / 20%
Libs / 9%
Grns / 5%
Vancouver South - never been an NDP seat
Party / 2011 / Jul 7 '15 / Change
NDP / 19% / 21% / Up 2%, in the race
Cons / 43% / 17% / Down 26%
Libs / 35% / 27% / Down 8%
Grns / 1% / 3% / Up 2%
https://dogwoodinitiative.org/media-centre/files/insights-west-polling-july
I took a run at this already in another thread. All your math is very wrong here however. You are comparing numbers with undistributed undecided to an actual election. Some of you election figures are completely out (add them up and they are nowhere near 100%)
As well you can simply look to each seat on wiki and see the redistributed 2011 results and make a direct comparison for all 4 seats.
Norman Spector @nspector4 5h5 hours ago
27% who voted #LPC in 2011 will vote #NDP this time-twice the proportion that will switch between other parties http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/07/10/poll-shows-justin-trudeaus-liberals-slipping-further-behind.html …
The title says Greece but it is another excellent article by Silver about polling complications.
Herding is a huge problem in the polling industry, so ignore it at your peril.
The Polls Were Bad in Greece. The Conventional Wisdom Was Worse.
So … the pundits are so bad that you should literally bet against whatever they say? Even I wouldn’t go that far. I’m happy to mostly ignore them instead. The problem, though, is that because of herding, it’s become harder to get what I really want — an undiluted sample of public opinion. Instead, there’s sometimes quite a bit of conventional wisdom baked into the polls. Be wary when there’s a seeming consensus among the polls, especially under circumstances that should make for difficult polling. There’s a good chance the polling will be wrong — but in the opposite direction of what most people are expecting.
This is a perfect example of what Nate Silver is talking about and looks who is tweeting it.
Frank Graves @VoiceOfFranky 2h2 hours ago
Liberals and NDP are the same but don't know it: Salutin | Toronto Star http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2015/07/09/liberals-and-ndp-are-the-same-but-dont-know-it-salutin.html …
So … the pundits are so bad that you should literally bet against whatever they say? Even I wouldn’t go that far. I’m happy to mostly ignore them instead.
The Polls Were Bad in Greece. The Conventional Wisdom Was Worse.
Polling - Month of June '15
Pollster / NDP / Cons / Libs
Abacus Data ./ 32% / 29% / 27%
Angus Reid ../ 36% / 31% / 23%
EKOS ........./ 31% / 28% / 25%
Forum ......./ 33% / 28% / 29%
Ipsos Reid ./ 35% / 28% / 29%
Averages / 33% / 29% / 27%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...
Election 2015 Poll Update (July 11)
http://www.truenorthtimes.ca/2015/07/11/election-2015-poll-update-july-11/
Going international now.
Canadian report | Polls say support for Trudeau and Liberty party waning
http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/news/nation-world/article27050989.html
Going international now.
Canadian report | Polls say support for Trudeau and Liberty party waning
http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/news/nation-world/article27050989.html
Myrtle Beach! Oh my! Have they heard in Pougkeepsie?
What is the main reason Trudeau is losing support?
Do you think this is it?
Supporters publicly abandoning Liberal Party over Trudeau’s support for Bill C-51May 9, 2015 Civil Liberties, Front Page, Security 114 Comments
Social media is abuzz with images of Liberal supporters symbolically cutting up their party membership cards after their leader Justin Trudeau voted in favour of Bill C-51 at the anti-terrorism legislation’s third reading in the House of Commons.
http://thinkpol.ca/2015/05/09/supporters-publicly-abandoning-liberal-par...
It's orange versus blue
It's orange versus blue
The article is talking about the 9% electorate (according to Abacus) that are Conservative-NDP switchers.
And what's your point?
---------------------------------------
That latest Forum poll shows quite a rebound for Harper, as it shows the Cons tied for the lead with the NDP, or in the lead, for the first time in the last 13 polls.
-----------
And what's your point?
---------------------------------------
That latest Forum poll shows quite a rebound for Harper, as it shows the Cons tied for the lead with the NDP, or in the lead, for the first time in the last 13 polls.
-----------
Because The Liberals are tanking (IT'S OVER!) I suspect some Blue Liberals are rushing to the Cons to stop the NDP
Which might explain the spike in the Cons numbers
I sure hope not, because it might lead to another majority, which I PRAY doesn't happen. Even a Conservative minority would be horrible. I want the Cons out once and for all.
Unfortunately Harper is far from out of the picture.
$3 billion in cheques going out to Canadians starting Jul 20th from our federal government
Economy may rebound.
A new National Park
Because The Liberals are tanking (IT'S OVER!) I suspect some Blue Liberals are rushing to the Cons to stop the NDP
Which might explain the spike in the Cons numbers
I sure hope not, because it might lead to another majority, which I PRAY doesn't happen. Even a Conservative minority would be horrible. I want the Cons out once and for all.
Presumably the orange-liberals will begin "rushing to the [NDP] to stop the [Cons]" then. This should lead to an NDP victory, unless the Liberal Party comprises far more right-wingers than left-wingers, of course.
Easy there. Lots of things to do before the vote. Let's not count our chickens yet.
Is that another Orange Crush on the horizon?
That same poll shows New Democratic Party leader Thomas Mulcair in the lead when respondents are asked who would make the best prime minister.
http://www.guelphmercury.com/opinion-story/5728640-now-mulcair-basks-in-...
----------------
18,800
I suppose it is not just Mrytle Beach anymore, eh!
Canada’s Untested New Democrats Take Early Lead in Campaign
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-13/canada-s-untested-new-...
It's orange versus blue
The article is talking about the 9% electorate (according to Abacus) that are Conservative-NDP switchers.
I was canvassed by a CPC guy who will now be voting NDP after my short conversation with him about C24.
It's orange versus blue
The article is talking about the 9% electorate (according to Abacus) that are Conservative-NDP switchers.
I was canvassed by a CPC guy who will now be voting NDP after my short conversation with him about C24.
So a guy came to your door to convince you to vote CPC and you convinced him to vote NDP instead, well done :-) .
What exactly did you tell him, just in case I run into any CPC voters (we're not talking about the communist party right?)