Latest polling thread April 28th, 2015

NDP - 35%

PCs - 32%

Libs - 26%

NDP maintains lead in Ontario

http://www.canada.com/News/politics/Gargoyle+Harper+with+controversial+W...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...

Which pollsters are showing the NDP quite strong in BC?

NorthReport wrote:

Insights West Poll  

4 ridings in BC

Once again phenomenal results for the NDP who are either leading or in play in all four ridings, whereas the Liberals are only up in one of the ridings above the Liberal's disasterous results in the 2011 election.  

 

North Vancouver  - never been an NDP seat

Party / 2011 / Jul 7 '15 / Change

NDP / 16% / 19% / Up 3% - in the race

Cons  / 49% / 24% / Down 25%

Libs / 30% / 25% / Down 5%

Grns / 5% / 11% / Up 6%

 

West Vancouver- Sunshine Coast - Sea-to-Sky - never been an NDP seat

Party / 2011 / Jul 7 '15 / Change

NDP / 15% / 19% / Up 4% - in the race

Cons / 29% / 22% / Down 7%

Libs / 14% / 23% / Up 9%

Grns / 5% / 9% / Up 4%

 

South Okanagan- West Kootenay - New seat

Party / Jul 7 '15

NDP / 44% - lead Cons by 24%

Cons / 20%

Libs / 9%

Grns / 5%

 

Vancouver South - never been an NDP seat

Party / 2011 / Jul 7 '15 / Change

NDP / 19% / 21% / Up 2%, in the race

Cons /  43% / 17% / Down 26%

Libs / 35% / 27% / Down 8%

Grns / 1% / 3% / Up 2% 

 

https://dogwoodinitiative.org/media-centre/files/insights-west-polling-july

I took a run at this already in another thread. All your math is very wrong here however. You are comparing numbers with undistributed undecided to an actual election. Some of you election figures are completely out (add them up and they are nowhere near 100%)

As well you can simply look to each seat on wiki and see the redistributed 2011 results and make a direct comparison for all 4 seats.

The title says Greece but it is another excellent article by Silver about polling complications.

Herding is a huge problem in the polling industry, so ignore it at your peril.

The Polls Were Bad in Greece. The Conventional Wisdom Was Worse.

So … the pundits are so bad that you should literally bet against whatever they say? Even I wouldn’t go that far. I’m happy to mostly ignore them instead. The problem, though, is that because of herding, it’s become harder to get what I really want — an undiluted sample of public opinion. Instead, there’s sometimes quite a bit of conventional wisdom baked into the polls. Be wary when there’s a seeming consensus among the polls, especially under circumstances that should make for difficult polling. There’s a good chance the polling will be wrong — but in the opposite direction of what most people are expecting.

Polling - Month of June '15

Pollster / NDP / Cons / Libs 

Abacus Data ./ 32% / 29% / 27%

Angus Reid ../ 36% / 31% / 23%

EKOS ........./ 31% / 28% / 25%

Forum ......./ 33% / 28% / 29%

Ipsos Reid ./ 35% / 28% / 29%

Averages / 33% / 29% / 27%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...

Going international now.

Canadian report | Polls say support for Trudeau and Liberty party waning

http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/news/nation-world/article27050989.html

What is the main reason Trudeau is losing support?

Do you think this is it? 

Supporters publicly abandoning Liberal Party over Trudeau’s support for Bill C-51May 9, 2015   Civil Liberties, Front Page, Security   114 Comments

Social media is abuzz with images of Liberal supporters symbolically cutting up their party membership cards after their leader Justin Trudeau voted in favour of Bill C-51 at the anti-terrorism legislation’s third reading in the House of Commons.

http://thinkpol.ca/2015/05/09/supporters-publicly-abandoning-liberal-par...

NorthReport wrote:

It's orange versus blue

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/07/11/its-orange-versus-blue

The article is talking about the 9% electorate (according to Abacus) that are Conservative-NDP switchers. 

NorthReport wrote:

And what's your point?

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That latest Forum poll shows quite a rebound for Harper, as it shows the Cons tied for the lead with the NDP, or in the lead, for the first time in the last 13 polls.

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Because The Liberals are tanking (IT'S OVER!) I suspect some Blue Liberals are rushing to the Cons to stop the NDP

Which might explain the spike in the Cons numbers

I sure hope not, because it might lead to another majority, which I PRAY doesn't happen. Even a Conservative minority would be horrible. I want the Cons out once and for all.

terrytowel wrote:

Because The Liberals are tanking (IT'S OVER!) I suspect some Blue Liberals are rushing to the Cons to stop the NDP

Which might explain the spike in the Cons numbers

I sure hope not, because it might lead to another majority, which I PRAY doesn't happen. Even a Conservative minority would be horrible. I want the Cons out once and for all.

Presumably the orange-liberals will begin "rushing to the [NDP] to stop the [Cons]" then.  This should lead to an NDP victory, unless the Liberal Party comprises far more right-wingers than left-wingers, of course.

I suppose it is not just Mrytle Beach anymore, eh! 

Canada’s Untested New Democrats Take Early Lead in Campaign

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-13/canada-s-untested-new-...

Rokossovsky wrote:

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

It's orange versus blue

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/07/11/its-orange-versus-blue

The article is talking about the 9% electorate (according to Abacus) that are Conservative-NDP switchers. 

I was canvassed by a CPC guy who will now be voting NDP after my short conversation with him about C24.

 So a guy came to your door to convince you to vote CPC and you convinced him to vote NDP instead, well done :-)  .

 What exactly did you tell him, just in case I run into any CPC voters (we're not talking about the communist party right?)