Greece #3

It seems to me that much of this discussion obfuscates the central issue.

Underlying the "debt crisis " Is the essence of capitalism. The "bailouts" are not gifts. They are loans. They are loans with interest. They are loans with interest because it is the nature of capitalist lending to make money.

Greece cannot pay back the loans. From a capitalist perspective they are a very bad lending risk. There is very little that can be done within a capitalist system to make them a better lending risk.

For the last at least 40 years and Grace has been a cronyism state in which the wealthy did not pay real taxes and nobody seriously tried to collect those monies owed. However with a strong and militant working class the political compromise was to expand the public state.

Greece's primary incomes are from tourism, and agricultural products like olives and olive oil. Many families stay afloat through remissions received from family members working abroad. Within capitalism this kind of national economy does not generate a large tax base.

Greece has very few high value added industries.

Within this comes the world recession. If Greeece were a family farm they would bankrupt and no bank would lend them any more money.

Even the IMF have conceded that Greece cannot repay the debt it already owes. Therefore the alternatives are either significant debt reduction or state bankruptcy.

There are many Greeks including Tsipras who conisder leaving the Euro a non-option.

If you really want to understand this you may have to ask yourself why that is. (Not just say he is wrong but wonder why he thinks this.)

I think it is becuase:

Tsipras understands that Greece has no negotiating power and will be at the mercy of lenders for some time as it tries to make some reforms it needs in order to effectively declare independence again. He may well feel that even thoguh Greece is being hurt by Europe -- remaining in Europe is the best way to get solidarity from other countries -- to get others to support what they need from the outside community. He may fee that if Greece leaves, the rest of the world will share nothing but a bit of pity. Greeks (not just Tsipras) are emotional about their connection to Europe -- they feel that they need this relationship. They are upset at Germany which is ruled by a right wing government) but it may not always be ruled by a right wing government. Greeks believe that if they leave Europe now they will never get back in. They are worried that if theya re outside it will not be like it was before the union. Europe is a trading block -- once created you have to be inside or excluded. Finally he fears the chaotic exit and what that would mean to their society. He fears civil war -- a country in this much trouble is always close to such a calamity.

Tsipras and many Greeks fear a Greece that is a broken country outside of any block or community and without any advocates. He is not wrong in my view. The support he has had among some European members is precisely becuase Greece is in the Europe Union. The key for Greece is fixing the European Union -- not leaving it. In the meantime the short term pain with the forced agenda and the bailout is not worse than without the short term bailout and without the agenda. It is not sustainable -- we all know that but he will have to work within the EU to build alliances -- not sit outside in a catatstrophic melt-down and nobody to talk to.

This is why I do not attack him as others do here. I realize how bad it is but I do not credit the other choice with the value some others here do.

ikosmos wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

This is why I do not attack him as others do here. I realize how bad it is but I do not credit the other choice with the value some others here do.

So a fair question to ask you and those who agree with you: Isn't it true that you must support the current Greek government doing "whatever is necessary" [including killing protestors] to enforce the austerity since the alternative has been rejected in principle?

Of course not -- what a silly question.

I support the democratically elected governemnt of Greece in a difficult situation -- does not mean I agree with and support every individual decision. Nor does it mean that I even have the particulars to judge fault in every situation. (Who made what decision based on whose authority and why.)

I need to know that a government is clearly not working in the people's interest to change my mind from wanting to support them in a national crisis where opposition to them could make the crisis worse.

Syriza's raison d'etre is gone. It's now just another party hanging on to power just to stay in power and to reap the perks of office. And Tsipras is now little more than a German prefect.

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For the last at least 40 years and Grace has been a cronyism state in which the wealthy did not pay real taxes and nobody seriously tried to collect those monies owed.

Fortunately it was only the rich, though.  Can you imagine the outcomes if everyone were allergic to paying tax?

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However with a strong and militant working class the political compromise was to expand the public state.

So in essence, "to make it up to you for not compelling you to pay taxes, we'll spend that tax money we didn't collect!"

'Greek Society is Ready to Discuss Radical Alternatives'

http://www.rt.com/op-edge/310024-greece-bailout-syriza-rallies/

"I think this is just the beginning of a new phase..."

Riots In Athens: EU's Impending Collapse?  -  by Norman Pollack

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/07/16/riots-in-athens-eus-impending-col...

"People move events.

The riots in Athens, while the Greek parliament passed the austerity measures, may be the first sign of the breakup of the EU, itself a political formation of advanced capitalism unable to meet the needs of its poorer members.

Austerity is repression, pure and simple. It is also, as I recently pointed out, the framework for class warfare, in both cases to the extreme detriment of working people. The people in the Athens street know this, know that Tsipras and Syriza have not done right by them.

Greece is on the edge of the precipice, struggling not to be pushed over into the abyss. It wants to fight back...I am heartened though, by the scenes before the Greek Parliament hours ago.

The Greek people have an unquenchable thirst for freedom!"

Syriza Betrays Greece's NO Vote: Why the Left Should Form a Popular Front Against the EU   -   by Stavros Mavroudeas

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/07/16/syriza-betrays-greeces-no-vote-wh...

"...It is of paramount importance for the Left not to leave the field free to the extreme Right as happened in West Europe. A Left popular front against the EU should be urgently organized.

This should involve political forces and grassroots popular organizations, fight austerity and capitalist restructuring and strive for the total disengagement of Greece from the EU

(That is for a popular GREXIT involving leaving the whole structure and not solely the monetary union). It is the task of the independent and militant Left and the combatant forces of labor to instigate this front."

Syriza could address this very simply.

One more referendum, binding:  "On a scale of Yes or No, do you want Greece to leave the Eurozone, effective as soon as this vote is counted?"

[ ] Yes

[ ] No

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Syriza could address this very simply.

One more referendum, binding:  "On a scale of Yes or No, do you want Greece to leave the Eurozone, effective as soon as this vote is counted?"

[ ] Yes

[ ] No

Cross-posted with you. This is difficult given that it exposes the mistake of asking the wrong question and yours is not the right question either.

What if the people vote no?

So they say no to Grexit and no to the deal?

What they need is a mandate chocie to sign the deal as it sits OR leave the Eurozone.

Now I don't think it should be effecitve immediately-- it would be based on some wind-up deal that might take as little as a month or so but no need to make this sound petulant.

Europe has stated they are prepared for Grexit and would offer some humanitarian aid. Greece should take that aid if the poeple want a Grexit. While waiting for the vote the govenrment should be negotiating with anyone who can assist them to make a Grexit work as best it can be.

I do not propose one chaotic referendum after another. This one if there is another -- must be thought through and include what the real choice is. So a no to Grexit must be a yes to the only deal on the table and visa versa.

..this is from back in apr when i believe there was an opportunity to leave

Costas Lapavitsas: The Syriza strategy has come to an end

quote:

So what should the Greek government do in your opinion?

Greece needs to consider the true alternative path which is to leave this failed monetary union. It is clearly the only way that was there from the beginning – which is basically exit. If you are going to apply such a programme, as Syriza has proclaimed, which is not radical – Syriza’s programme is just moderate Keynesianism -, you need to think seriously of how you are going to get out of the confines of the Eurozone.

Do you think Syriza has the mandate for it?

A straight answer is no. Syriza has a mandate to fulfil its programme. Indirectly, not directly, it has a mandate to keep the country in the Eurozone. But this question was never openly posed to the Greek people.

Is the solution a referendum?

The first thing to do is not so much discuss the idea of a referendum but actually that of the alternative strategy. There has to be a genuine public debate at last. That’s not easy because for five years this country has been subjected to the most incredible misinformation and scaremongering campaigns. So the atmosphere has been very badly poisoned. It is not impossible to have this debate now but it is much more difficult than a few years back.

In my judgement, the best strategy right now is what I call a consensual and orderly exit. Not a contested exit.

 Can you elaborate on that? 

I think Greece should set a target for itself to negotiate an exit basically without rupture, without falling out, without fighting, without unilateral actions. This would mean: Exit takes place and Greece seeks deep debt restructuring.

Q: Why would the EU-partners accept? This exit has two elements that the EZ doesn’t want: the exit itself and the debt restructuring. 

I am not entirely certain the EZ doesn’t want exit. I suspect that it does. And in my judgement if a country asked for a negotiated way out, it might as well receive in it. Germany, Schauble, back in 2011 was in favor of a negotiated exit.

The price for the EZ should be debt restructuring. But they are two more very important elements: the protection of the exchange rate and protection of the banks. These are essentially costless for the ECB because Greece is a small country.

Mr. Magoo wrote:

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What if the people vote no?

So they say no to Grexit and no to the deal?

They already had a referendum about the deal.  Or at any rate, they had a referendum about a marginally BETTER deal and rejected it.

To be fair, if they were to vote "no" to a Grexit and "no" to austerity then I'd surely agree that Syriza's hands are tied.  That would be tantamount to saying "yes" to some kind of miracle.

I think we already know this is the issue.

Do they need to have a separate vote to reject all their options before they actually start measuring one bad option against another?

Clearly now the choice is deal or Grexit. Any vote now should have a choice unless it is another protest magnet. Statements have been made -- what is needed are decisions and mandates. Mandates come from offering two Possible options not disapproval in seperate votes of each nasty option the country faces. Greece is on the verge of collapse.

It would be irresponsible to have another vote that is not a choice between two real options -- something the govermment can take as a direction. The trouble with the last vote is the meaning of OXI was completely undefined except in the negative. You need a postive choice This OR this. Not one option: yes or no.

At this point there is violence in the streets. People are very much divided. The only possible thing that could hold them together is a mandate to do something. Another mandate to reject without an alternative choice could take the country right over the edge-- even if it is possible now to stop that from happening.

Agreed.

How will history judge Alexis Tsipras?

Paul Wells on a bailout deal that is a shocking—but necessary—compromise of Greece’s sovereignty

There are no heroes and villains in this piece, and I wouldn’t want to make it look like I’m lionizing the Germans to denigrate the Greeks, either. The creation of the euro currency featured Germany itself flouting membership rules that Germany had helped to write, then shooing away EU officials who had the audacity to point out the hypocrisy. Europe has always been a mess. But, since its members learned to compromise, in the years after the last century’s worst war, they have put centuries of European bloodshed behind them, welcomed half of Germany and most of the Warsaw Pact back to the family of democracies, and built a zone of prosperity so attractive, even Alexis Tsipras, despite everything, found he didn’t dare walk away. One day, his countrymen will thank him.

http://www.macleans.ca/news/world/how-will-history-judge-alexis-tsipras/

Well, fair enough.

Doug Woodard wrote:

Golden Dawn will be strengthened by worse austerity, Yanis Varoufakis warns:

http://gu.com/p/4aje7/sbl

 

 

Does anyone else see the obvious contradictions between supporting fascism, IMF austerity and the imposition of  Euro-American domination in Kiev, while opposing the same in Athens?

Say what?  

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Does anyone else see the obvious attempt to bring Ukraine and/or Russia into every thread?

takeitslowly wrote:

maybe the greek people cant agree on what they want, they only know they dont want austrity. They will protest and whine but they secretly accept whatever that must be done to stay in as long as they can take money out of their banks and stay in EUro

 

tisprias is a strategical loser, a political loser, a big fat loser. Its kind of like my relationship right now, i am not happy but i dont want to break up.

 

Break up is hard, look at Quebec, Scotland, and now Greece, they never want to break up. Better Together, forever and always..

I don't think this is a fair statement about the Greek People. They have not been asked a question with a stright choice.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I don't think this is a fair statement about the Greek People. They have not been asked a question with a stright choice.

Comsistent with the straight through lack of leadership shown by Tsipras.

The referendum question was not, do you want to refuse the deal offered even if it means Greece has to go its own way.

Yes, Syryza did not have a mandate to take a path that could likely lead to being pushed out of the exit. But it had 6 months and was unwilling to ask, if getting what we need requires......

Calling it a ""warning shot" I think is more than a bit of an overstatement.

It's not a threat, it's a (pointless) objection that you arent being fair to me.

Greece Surrendered: But to Whom Exactly?  -  by Diana Johnstone

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/07/17/greece-surrendered-but-to-whom-ex...

"...Yes, Greece surrendered unconditionally, as has been thoroughly and eloquently expressed here on CounterPunch and elsewhere. But one crucial question appears not to have been adequately answered. To whom, exactly, did Greece surrender?

The United States has been relatively discrete during this crisis, but Washington's will is known. Greece must stay tightly within the European Union, for geopolitical reasons.

Much of the European left is finding itself increasingly caught in the contradiction between its anti-nationalist 'European dream' and the destruction of democracy by the EU's financial bureaucracy."

Debate: Greece Bailout Crisis (and vid)

http://www.presstv.com/Video/2015/07/16/420593/Greece-bailout-crisis

"Sean O'Grady, of The Independent from London and Paul Craig Roberts, former US Assistant Secretary of Treasury from Atlanta address the bailout crisis in Greece."

The End of Europe

From a European perspective, the financial meltdown of 2008 was the prologue of a full-scale, continent-wide crisis. The US-made financial debacle triggered a complex chain of unexpected events throughout the old continent, contaminating all spheres of social life and resulting in a radically new landscape plagued by political and economic crisis.

As Ada Colau, the newly elected mayor of Barcelona and head of a coalition inspired by the indignados, says: “No one will come out unchanged from this crisis. What awaits us is a feudal horizon, with a sharp increase in inequality, an unprecedented concentration of wealth, new forms of insecurity for the majority of citizens. Or, a democratic revolution, where thousands of people are committed to change the film’s ending.”...

Varoufakis - Dr. Schauble's Plan for Europe: Do Europeans Approve?

English version of Varoufakis' article in Die Zeit:

http://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/17/dr-schaubles-plan-for-europe-do...

Podemos down 8 points in latest poll. Thank you Tsipras.

https://mobile.twitter.com/yvessmith

Podemos dipped because it all looks harder than people thought. And it/was, whatever Syryza did with it.

It is up to Syryza and Podemos to lead people through the process of questioning what they want, now that many see it s a tougher choice than they thought. Looks like Syryza did a pretty crappy job of preparing people.

But it isnt over in Greece, let alone Spain.

Whether you approve of Syriza's choices or not, I don't think there's any reasonable reason to believe that Syriza was bought off, or always secretly hated Greece or whatever.  I think they did what they thought was best for Greece.

So it seems funny to me that apparently they should have done the opposite of that, if it was what was best for Podemos.

"Sorry, Greek brothers and sisters, but this isn't about you any more.  It's about the Left around the globe!"

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A defeat is one thing. But a defeat where the party doing the fighting looks foolish at best, and totally dishonest at worst, is a defeat which will cause damage to all similar parties.

I'm still asking why this is.

If your comrades duff it -- assuming that Syriza actually did duff it -- means you have to surrender now?  Sorry, still don't follow.

What about "let's redouble our efforts so this doesn't happen here!"?  Wouldn't that also make some sense?