Federal election thread -- August 4, 2015

Ha! 

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  11h11 hours ago

Norman Spector retweeted Gerald Butts

In fairness, a fine appointment and one that no doubt would have met the test of your 'improved' process

Norman Spector added,

Gerald Butts @gmbuttsAlways fun when one of the 57 Senators Harper promised not to appoint defends his record on democracy. #elxn42 https://twitter.com/HeerJeet/status/634039219246231552 …

Again I maintain that the Liberals are trying for a second place seat count as they have the advantage of being between the Tories and the NDP. If the NDP are a minority with the most seats,the Libs with second place in the seat count could conceivably depend on Conservative backing to form a coalition with Trudeau as PM and Cons in the cabinet. The Cons could do this hoping for the Libs to stumble before the next election, or they may form a continuing arrangement as we have in BC with the Cons and Libs running under the Social Credit and now the Liberal banner. Conversely the reverse would be true if the Cons have the plurality of seats, Libs second and NDP third; the NDP would likely form a coalition to keep the cons out, again with Trudeau as PM. This pact would most likely lead to the NDP being punished in the next election as being the red rump of the Liberals. This plan, without the Bloc involved could easily be sold to the Canadian public, unlike when Harper prorogued parliament. If however the Libs enter into any of these situations as the junior partner, their position between the Cons and the New Democrats works to their disadvantage and they would likely be decimated by the following election and possibly even split apart before by the forming of such an arrangement could be crafted.

NorthReport wrote:

NDP aspires to form the government.

Are Liberals, even though they have a massive media complex supporting them, going to be the Humpty Dumpty of Canadian politics?

In third place where else can they go? The left and right wings of the party will likely rebel and split up as Jr. coalition members and the voters will punish them if they don't support one party or the other.

http://www.canada.com/news/national/Andrew+Coyne+Harper+forgive+misjudge...

nvcrash wrote:

Again I maintain that the Liberals are trying for a second place seat count as they have the advantage of being between the Tories and the NDP. If the NDP are a minority with the most seats,the Libs with second place in the seat count could conceivably depend on Conservative backing to form a coalition with Trudeau as PM and Cons in the cabinet. The Cons could do this hoping for the Libs to stumble before the next election, or they may form a continuing arrangement as we have in BC with the Cons and Libs running under the Social Credit and now the Liberal banner. Conversely the reverse would be true if the Cons have the plurality of seats, Libs second and NDP third; the NDP would likely form a coalition to keep the cons out, again with Trudeau as PM. This pact would most likely lead to the NDP being punished in the next election as being the red rump of the Liberals. This plan, without the Bloc involved could easily be sold to the Canadian public, unlike when Harper prorogued parliament. If however the Libs enter into any of these situations as the junior partner, their position between the Cons and the New Democrats works to their disadvantage and they would likely be decimated by the following election and possibly even split apart before by the forming of such an arrangement could be crafted.

I disagree with this completely.

The Liberals are keeping their options open. It seems clear that the Liberals will tacitly support whomever has the most seats in order to watch the polls and bring down a governemnt to try to win. Finances might make that a difficult road but it is the only one they have.

They are rejecting a coalition for strategic reasons-- they want to oppose the government --  be seen as different -- and pull the plug at any moment. So they are not going to marry the CPC either.

If Harper gets the most seats they will allow him to govern --  but they are not going to help him get there by going into his cabinet-- that would be suicide -- and it would remove the option to go into an election should the polls go up for the Liberals.

Instead they would rather see the NDP govern and then pull the plug at the best opportunity and label the Federal NDP a failure.

If the Liberals are second and Harper falls to third (not at all impossible either depending on vote distribution) -- Trudeau may seek to replace the CPC on the right (like in BC).

In other words-- if the Liberals are third -- consider the election campaign not over. This is what is in their interests. This is not in the interest of Canada which actual needs a stable government. Expect Harper to sing this refrain next month -- claiming Trudeua is a recipe for instability since he will not agree to allow a stable government -- and if he would it would be to back the evil socialists and the only answer is a Conservative strong stable majority.

This message will be blasted in September.

Trudeau should have refused a hypothetical question -- the CPC will ram it down his throat.

F@5@ing idiot. Faced with the same question in 1972 -- his father knew not to be so incredibly stupid.

Trudeau has taken himself out of the picture -- he just does not know it yet -- dead politician talking.

If the NDP has the second most seats the GG will keep Harper in power with the condition that only a formal arrangment can replace the party with the most seats. (And nobody will be able to argue it.)

Trudeau can either hope for a few more seats opposite a majority NDP or CPC government, or an NDP in first place that he can basically ignore until convenient but if the CPC have a plurality Trudeau's stupid tactic will be exposed as he keeps the CPC in power by doing nothing to help the NDP replace Harper. His supporters will cry foul but he has painted himself into this corner.

There is a good reason why leaders do not make public decisions like this before an election result is announced. Maybe Junior should have studied political science instead of drama.

Tom Mulcair faces yet another protestor on the campaign trail

 NDP wouldn't just decriminalize pot, they'd look at people who have already been convicted of pot offences Tom said.today, which tells me that its likely alot of people could be set free, as long as there was no violence invovled and they're not a major player in organized crime, that means fewer people in prisons. Maybe even have they're records cleaned so it easier to get jobs.

alan smithee wrote:

Brachina wrote:

 NDP wouldn't just decriminalize pot, they'd look at people who have already been convicted of pot offences Tom said.today, which tells me that its likely alot of people could be set free, as long as there was no violence invovled and they're not a major player in organized crime, that means fewer people in prisons. Maybe even have they're records cleaned so it easier to get jobs.

Could you provide a link?

Here's a video of him talking about this (and also talking about affordable housing.)

You're welcome.

The video above was shot in a backyard where Mulcair had given a talk on child care.  It was being shown live on CBC, but right after two questions had been asked, the video froze and CBC switched to other programming.  I've seen this happen a couple of times on CBC when Mulcair is giving statements, but never when either Trudeau or Harper are giving statements.  Perhaps I'm being paranoid, but I'm almost starting to think it's intentional of the CBC.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

nvcrash wrote:

Again I maintain that the Liberals are trying for a second place seat count as they have the advantage of being between the Tories and the NDP. If the NDP are a minority with the most seats,the Libs with second place in the seat count could conceivably depend on Conservative backing to form a coalition with Trudeau as PM and Cons in the cabinet. The Cons could do this hoping for the Libs to stumble before the next election, or they may form a continuing arrangement as we have in BC with the Cons and Libs running under the Social Credit and now the Liberal banner. Conversely the reverse would be true if the Cons have the plurality of seats, Libs second and NDP third; the NDP would likely form a coalition to keep the cons out, again with Trudeau as PM. This pact would most likely lead to the NDP being punished in the next election as being the red rump of the Liberals. This plan, without the Bloc involved could easily be sold to the Canadian public, unlike when Harper prorogued parliament. If however the Libs enter into any of these situations as the junior partner, their position between the Cons and the New Democrats works to their disadvantage and they would likely be decimated by the following election and possibly even split apart before by the forming of such an arrangement could be crafted.

I disagree with this completely.

The Liberals are keeping their options open. It seems clear that the Liberals will tacitly support whomever has the most seats in order to watch the polls and bring down a governemnt to try to win. Finances might make that a difficult road but it is the only one they have.

They are rejecting a coalition for strategic reasons-- they want to oppose the government --  be seen as different -- and pull the plug at any moment. So they are not going to marry the CPC either.

If Harper gets the most seats they will allow him to govern --  but they are not going to help him get there by going into his cabinet-- that would be suicide -- and it would remove the option to go into an election should the polls go up for the Liberals.

Instead they would rather see the NDP govern and then pull the plug at the best opportunity and label the Federal NDP a failure.

If the Liberals are second and Harper falls to third (not at all impossible either depending on vote distribution) -- Trudeau may seek to replace the CPC on the right (like in BC).

In other words-- if the Liberals are third -- consider the election campaign not over. This is what is in their interests. This is not in the interest of Canada which actual needs a stable government. Expect Harper to sing this refrain next month -- claiming Trudeua is a recipe for instability since he will not agree to allow a stable government -- and if he would it would be to back the evil socialists and the only answer is a Conservative strong stable majority.

This message will be blasted in September.

Trudeau should have refused a hypothetical question -- the CPC will ram it down his throat.

F@5@ing idiot. Faced with the same question in 1972 -- his father knew not to be so incredibly stupid.

Trudeau has taken himself out of the picture -- he just does not know it yet -- dead politician talking.

If the NDP has the second most seats the GG will keep Harper in power with the condition that only a formal arrangment can replace the party with the most seats. (And nobody will be able to argue it.)

Trudeau can either hope for a few more seats opposite a majority NDP or CPC government, or an NDP in first place that he can basically ignore until convenient but if the CPC have a plurality Trudeau's stupid tactic will be exposed as he keeps the CPC in power by doing nothing to help the NDP replace Harper. His supporters will cry foul but he has painted himself into this corner.

There is a good reason why leaders do not make public decisions like this before an election result is announced. Maybe Junior should have studied political science instead of drama.

Perhaps you should re-read what I wrote because it sounds like you are repeating alot of what I meant and are expanding on parts of it.

Tom Mulcair just called me to ask if he can count on my support. He sounded fine. My riding changed, I'm in his now which is an interesting turn of events for me. Neither the Cons nor the Bloc are in contention in this riding. The NDP is first with a huge lead, but the Liberals are distant second. Seeing as the Cons and Bloc are not in contention I can vote Liberal.

Duncan Cameron, president of Rabble, shares his perspective on the Liberal's campaign this election. Trudeau Liberals hunt for centre-right voters

Duncan Cameron wrote:

The tried-and-true Liberal strategy -- run from the left, then govern from the right -- now reads: vote for us, we're not Stephen Harper Conservatives.

Ideas are what give meaning to politics. Liberal Conservatives are what the Justin Trudeau-led party has become.

atwood may be an engaging writer, a political analyst or commentator she's not.  Not much more substance than the hair debate!

..any thoughts on this?

Can this election halt NAFTA on Steroids (a.k.a. the TPP)?

The Trans-Pacific Partnership has quietly emerged as an issue during the federal election. It should receive the scrutiny it deserves.

First we learned that Canada would continue to be part of the negotiations during the election with Canada’s Privy Council declaring that this was possible so long as no “drastic” actions like ratification were taken.

Then speaking in Montreal on Aug. 5, NDP leader Thomas Mulcair said he was “enthusiastically in favour” of the TPP, which encompasses a number of countries bordering the Pacific Ocean accounting for 40 percent of global GDP.

Mulcair would go on to blast the Harper government’s boorish reputation in the international arena as being an impediment to finalizing a deal and announced that he would be an effective negotiator that could sign a deal while retaining supply management to protect Canada’s dairy industry.

Meanwhile Liberal leader Justin Trudeau also supports the TPP while criticizing Harper for the secretive nature of the negotiations.

Only Green Party leader Elizabeth May has offered any serious opposition and critique of the deal.

Despite the consensus of the major parties, the TPP must be rejected.

The TPP “serves the interests of the wealthiest,” says former World Bank economist Joseph Stiglitz, who the NDP invited to address their convention in 2013 to talk about economic inequality.

Given no final agreement has been reached, the final text of the TPP could also pose problems for the election platforms of the Liberals and NDP.

Any environmental regulations proposed by the Liberals and the NDP to ameliorate Harper’s regressive policies could be at risk as the TPP may constrain regulations on fossil fuel industries and the protection of wildlife. We already know that the Harper government has been fighting the few environmental regulations in the TPP.

And while the Liberals and the NDP have been promising a reset of relations with First Nations, Indigenous groups have been scathing with their criticisms of the TPP. The TPP would further embolden the rights of multinational energy companies that already encroach on Indigenous land in Canada, the US, Peru, Mexico, Australia, and New Zealand.

The whole secretive process of the TPP thus far has also undermined the concept of free, prior, informed consent, which is a major part of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. Indigenous peoples must be made aware and accept policies that will affect them....eta

Workers, unions, and the election

quote:

An NDP government?

The labour movement’s greatest source of power is not the ballot box, but its ability to challenge corporations and governments in the workplace. The labour movement, through on the ground campaigns, has the potential to reach millions.

This doesn’t mean elections are inconsequential. They can be used as a platform to push a working class agenda such as a $15/hr minimum wage, and they can also achieve important reforms such as the a national childcare program.

The NDP for the first time seems poised to be elected at the federal level. If we simply view this as an end in of itself, we will surely be disappointed. We know from past experiences at the provincial level that the NDP will immediately come under attack by the right, big corporations, international finance and the media. The NDP will respond by trying to placate this criticism from the right by demanding labour and the left not rock the boat. If this were to happen, the NDP will likely fold on many of its key promises and shift the political terrain to the right.

A case in point of this dynamic is the Fight for 15. The $15/hr minimum for federal regulated workers promised by the NDP will benefit roughly 100,000 workers. This is by itself a good thing.

The NDP’s policy was a response to the pressure created by the Fight for 15 movement across the country and even the continent. The NDP’s promise does not go far enough as it will not be fully in effect until 2019 and does not tie the increase to the rate of inflation going forward.

The promise does create the conditions for the movement to extend its reach and put mobilizing pressure on provincial governments to follow suit. The NDP, if elected, will come under fire for raising wages. The response of the labour movement is to not only defend the policy when attacked by the right, but to pressure the government through mobilization from the left to strengthen and extend the minimum wage.

Mulcair's Simple Tribute To Layton Speaks Volumes

Arthur Cramer wrote:

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/wynne-government-disputes-mulcairs-cla...

 The Liberals are shameless; they'll say ANYTHING!

Mulcair announced that Quebec can opt out with full compensation. It was only a matter of time until other provinces demanded the same right.

Their is a mistake, the Sherbrooke Declaration specifies that Quebec can opt out with full compensation, not that any province can. That is the part that is going to be a stickler.

Why is it shameless for Ontario to demand what Quebec is being handed without even asking?

Well, the Libs are keeping it up. Now they are trying to prove on Twitter the NDP caused Martin's fall. Its obvisou, its the olderst propaganda trick in the book, like what we see from Lib shills on this board. Misinform, confuse, don't tell the truth. They can't win on the issues, or if the truth is the measure of their mettle. This campaign being run for the Libs is dirty as Harper. Libs=Harper; NO QUESTION!

1. Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  12h12 hours ago

   Personally I think Mulcair’s pipeline position is basically the same as [his boyo] Trudeau’s  http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2015/08/22/five-weak-spots-that-could-derail-mulcair-and-the-ndp-hepburn.html …

    4 retweets0 favorites Reply Retweet 4 Favorite   More

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  14h14 hours ago

Norman Spector retweeted chantal hébert

...or she's going to sink Justin with her!

Norman Spector added,

chantal hébert @ChantalHbertKathleen Wynne needs to rein back campaign rhetoric: Editorial http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2015/08/23/kathleen-wynne-need...…

Bingo! 

I wonder if pondering recognizes the description of himself.  

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  3h3 hours ago

Monitoring Mulcair = anti-women tweets is a good way to determine who's on twitter spinning for #LPC !

 3 retweets2 favorites Reply Retweet 3 Favorite 2

+

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  12h12 hours ago

Norman Spector retweeted Marc Garneau

CP no longer reporting that Sherbrooke Declaration gives provinces other than QC compensation for opting out

Norman Spector added,

Marc Garneau @MarcGarneauQuestions from Ontario Gov`t about the NDP`s Childcare program: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-disputes-mulcairs-c...…

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  16h16 hours ago

Front page of today's T̶o̶r̶o̶n̶t̶o̶ Trudeau Star http://www.newseum.org/todaysfrontpages/?tfp_display=gallery&tfp_region=North+America&tfp_sort_by=country&tfp_id=CAN_TS …