Trudeau in trouble, trailing NPD in Papineau according to CROP, Quebec's gold pollster - Sep 17

This poll leak has just made the NDP look bad.  Now the media stories are about how the poll was biased from the start and how it is the second leaked by the NDP in Québec.  What a flop.  Plus, even if the Liberals knew they were losing (and were mum on it) now all sorts of maybe Liberal inclined voters know to show up and others may view the local campaign with suspicion.  I wonder how all this will play in the riding at the local campaign level.

Marie Vastel of Le Devoir is reporting that NDP withdrew 3 pages from the Papineau poll before sending it to the media.

Ciabatta2 wrote:

This poll leak has just made the NDP look bad.  Now the media stories are about how the poll was biased from the start and how it is the second leaked by the NDP in Québec.  What a flop.  Plus, even if the Liberals knew they were losing (and were mum on it) now all sorts of maybe Liberal inclined voters know to show up and others may view the local campaign with suspicion.  I wonder how all this will play in the riding at the local campaign level.

Well, I think this was a good move myself. And backing that up is the fact that all the Liberal shills here are talking about what a bad move it is. If it really was a mistake, they would be praising it. Liberals are always liars.

Pondering wrote:

That's not true. Many Quebecers think well of him, they just think better of Mulcair. Separatists hate him with a passion but they are in a minority.

You know, I;ve yet to meet a single member or supporter of the federal Liberal party in Quebec who has anything good to say about Trudeau. I've heard several say they prefer Harper as PM to Trudeau. Which is appalling, but worth being aware of, if you're a Liberal backer. 

308 is basically one man's elaborate guesswork. I could do the same thing, and though it would probably involve less math, I doubt it would be any more or less accurate.

I am not saying this poll was a bad idea but the execution stinks.

If they thought they might release it they should ahve told CROP to make it bullet proof -- good methodology, representative sample and no pages missing etc. Then if the poll were close or the NDP by a hair  or even breathing down Trudeau's neck from just a little behind, the poll would not easily be dismissed. But it looks like they tried to amplify the difference and got too cute by half.

All three parties are making this mistake and this is just one example.

Keep your integrity and hit hard -- don't try to fudge, pad or exaggerate because you don't get back the credibility you lose and you devalue your entire purpose.

This poll would have been a lot more meaningfull if it had been a tie in a perfectly executed poll rather than a massive win that looks cooked.

I suspect it was not even quite as purposefully cooked as people think -- but the impression given off by the amateur show surrounding it makes it look that way. There is no win for the NDP here -- a nice idea executed so badly that it has blown up and become a negative story.

And nope -- I am not a Liberal shill.

swallow wrote:

Pondering wrote:

That's not true. Many Quebecers think well of him, they just think better of Mulcair. Separatists hate him with a passion but they are in a minority.

You know, I;ve yet to meet a single member or supporter of the federal Liberal party in Quebec who has anything good to say about Trudeau. I've heard several say they prefer Harper as PM to Trudeau. Which is appalling, but worth being aware of, if you're a Liberal backer. 

People we know are not a random sample especially if they are into politics. I'm not a Liberal backer, I'm a Trudeau backer, so I have nothing in common with the people you are referring to. I'm referring to a Quebec poll from last year that rated Mulcair and Trudeau on various factors. Mulcair was the overall winner but Trudeau won in some significant categories. More recently the buzz in the pubs has Trudeau getting some rising cautious support. There are a lot of wild cards in Quebec between the diehard Liberal supporters and the diehard Liberal haters.

http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/09/18/change-ultimatel...

Interestingly the Quebec reviews were, on balance, more positive for Trudeau than in the other official language.

The province is home to some of the Liberal leader’s harshest media critics and his party ranks a distant second in Quebec voting intentions. On Thursday Trudeau may have benefited from lower-than-average expectations. One way or another though, the Liberals are not about to look a timely gift horse in the mouth.

If there is one region where the debate post-mortems probably mattered more than the event itself it is Quebec, where the audience for Thursday’s English-only debate was bound to be more limited than the national average.

If you found it hard to watch as the leaders talked over each other in English, imagine what it must have been like in simultaneous translation.

Meaning media reviews from trusted columnists carries a lot of weight.

But the Quebec cement will not harden until after the first French-language debate of the campaign. It is set for Thursday on Radio-Canada.

It will be Gilles Duceppe’s first appearance on a debate podium in this campaign and his last best chance to talk voters into giving the Bloc Québécois another look.

If only because so many Quebecers did not expect the Liberal leader to still be standing seven weeks in the campaign, Trudeau, too, will have an opportunity to re-introduce himself to his home province.

Early on there was a lot of trashing of Trudeau and the media was behind Mulcair, then Gilles Duceppe returned. His prospects are poor but whatever he can get will be at the expense of Mulcair not Trudeau. He may take some shots at Trudeau but for the most part he will focus his attention on attacking Mulcair. Harper will attack Trudeau and Mulcair on the economy but won't dominate because he will be addressing a very specific segment of the population. May will likely criticize Mulcair the most heavily.

Quebec could decide to embrace Trudeau after all, or not. Most likely he will have a small uptick but more critically he will soften NDP support by proving himself a valid alternative. The ABC trend in strong in Quebec. If it seems like Trudeau has the best chance of deposing Harper in the rest of Canada Quebec will not be adverse to pivoting as dramatically as they did in 2011. Not saying that they will, but if Trudeau performs adequately it will increase the chances that where it can occur it will occur.

Ciabatta2 wrote:

This poll leak has just made the NDP look bad.  Now the media stories are about how the poll was biased from the start and how it is the second leaked by the NDP in Québec.  What a flop.  Plus, even if the Liberals knew they were losing (and were mum on it) now all sorts of maybe Liberal inclined voters know to show up and others may view the local campaign with suspicion.  I wonder how all this will play in the riding at the local campaign level.

How so? Look at the numbers from 2011. Trudeau is at the same level of support. The difference is that in 2011 the non-Trudeau vote was divided, whereas if it consolidates behind one candidate, Trudeau loses. That's simple math without even having to do a poll.

I'm with JTT and Ari on this. They sent the poll to the media to inform the Bloc vote to rally behind the NDP. And the NDP can be as organized as the Libs to get their vote out. This poll also sends an unflattering message to the undecided vote in Atlantic Canada and Ontario that the NDP is the more stable party to vote for to get rid of Harper. This is exactly why the Liberals are spinning the poll methodology so much. This poll hurt them and they know it. If the Libs place third this election and JT loses his own seat, he will be gone. He can go back to being a bouncer.

nicky wrote:

There has been much criticism  of the CROP Papineau poll but little scrutiny of the Mainstreet Technologies poll that gave Trudeau a small lead.

Factoring out undecideds the polls indicates:

CROP: N 46 L35 B10 C5 G4

MT: L 41 N36 B12 C11 - Greens "not polled"

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/trudeau-leads-narrowly-in-papineau/

 A few random points.

1. CROP has been citicized as being "an NDP commissioned poll." Yet MT was released seemingly as part of the pro-Liberal spin to counter it. CROP is an independent pollster of long-standing and is widely respected. MT is a new kid on the block and has been closely affiliated with the Liberals.

2. MT has a strangely high number for the Conservatives, well more than double the 4.7%  they recived in 2011. Is this credible given the significant fall by the Conservatives in Quebec? In Mainstreet's Montreal poll of Sept 2 the Cons fell from 14% across the Island to 8% now. Why are they doubling their vote in Papineau when it is being halved elsewhere? CROP seems more plausible in giving the Cons 5%.

3. Inexplicably MT did not poll for the Greens. Given that the Green vote in Montreal is disproportionately English speaking this might alter the results slightly. CROP gives the Greens 4% in Papineau.

4. In the MT Sept 2 poll the NDP led the Liberals amongst Francophones by 42 to 21. The Liberals led among Allophones by 49 to 16. In its Papineau only poll Trudeau loses the Francophone vote by only 27 to 31 but prevails among Allophones by 54 to 16. Trudeau improves the Allopohone vote only slightly over the Liberal standing throughout Montreal but his increase in the Francophone vote is immense. I would expect that Trudeau would get some premium as party leader but this increase seems somehat implausible.

5. In Dec. 2013 MT released a poll of all the various Montreal Isalnd ridings showing the Liberals in a commanding position. That has now largely eroded. That poll showed these results in Papineau: L 61 B 20 N 14 C 5, G 0.

http://www.mainstreettechnologies.ca/mainstreet/wp-content/uploads/2013/...

Strange that the media does not mention that Trudeau has lost a third of his vote since that poll and that the NDP has almost tripled its.

6. Papineau is 70% Francophone according to the census. Applying MT's linguistic breakdown in its Set.2 poll, set out in my point #4, and factoring out the undecideds, we get these numbers for Papineau: N 43 L 33 B 12 C 9.5 G 3. Much closer to CROP than MT.

Justin may not be out of the woods yet.

 

 

 

nicky wrote:

1. CROP has been citicized as being "an NDP commissioned poll." Yet MT was released seemingly as part of the pro-Liberal spin to counter it. CROP is an independent pollster of long-standing and is widely respected. MT is a new kid on the block and has been closely affiliated with the Liberals.

The Mainstreet poll was commissioned by Postmedia and was conducted on the same day (Sept 17) that the CROP poll was leaked

Ciabatta2 wrote:

I don't think people across Canada view Trudeau's ability to win his seat as relating to beating Harper, but it is possible.

I don't know how any rational person could hold this opinion. It would take more than just this poll, but if the general public were convinced that Justin was going to lose his seat, that would be it. He would be done like dinner. His support is already super-soft, and that would tear the arse right out of 'er, as we used to say in the old country.

JKR wrote:

Great points. Ultimately it is the policies that actually get implemented that matter the most, not personalities. As the majour party that cares the most about the 99.9% of Canadians that are not, as Pondering would say, plutocrats, the NDP is the party most likely to establish good legislation for Canada.

The NDP has made a balanced budget their top priority so much so that if they don't keep their promise they will be raked over the coals for it. It has been suggested that they must do this in order to gain credibility and protect themselves from accusations of being spendthrifts. Once elected there will be even more pressure to be "moderate" in order to keep the confidence of voters and get re-elected again.

Having declared their intention to run deficits, if they discover Harper has been cooking the books, they can run even larger deficits without losing credibility. Harper did it. The Liberals are known for having slayed the deficit in the 90s. Only the most dedicated Conservatives fear that the Liberals are too far left. Is the NDP going to condemn them for too much spending on health care or education? The Liberals will have the added revenue of marijuana legalization instead of the added expense of another 2500 police officers. Ideologically the NDP members may be more progressive than the Liberals but I think the Liberals have the greater chance of actually passing progressive legislation because unlike the NDP they don't have to prove they are centrist.

This is utterly shocking to me after all the publicity over residential schools and truth and reconcilliation.

WINNIPEG — The children's advocate for Manitoba's First Nations says social workers are seizing an average of one newborn baby a day and "shoving them anywhere."

Cora Morgan told The Canadian Press that she was with a mother in hospital on Monday when Child and Family Services took the woman's three-day-old son. The only reason given was that the mother had been a ward of family services until she was 18, Morgan said.

"It was heart-wrenching,'' she said. "It just seemed so utterly heartless."

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/09/01/manitoba-child-services-first-na...

It is obscene to speak of reconcilliation when this is still happening. The NDP have been in power in Manitoba since 1999 but I am supposed to believe the NDP is this noble party of social justice. I'm supposed to support them just because they are social democrats therefore of superior moral fiber. I don't buy it and I don't buy Mulcair's transformation from small c conservative to capital NDP. I do believe that the NDP executive with Mulcair has a stranglehold on decision-making every bit as much as the Liberal executive did from the Chretien/Martin years on to Ignatieff's humiliating loss. The Liberals remain a top-down party but Trudeau and his executive is more open to considering divergent viewpoints, like marijuana legalization. Marijuana legalization is portrayed by the NDP to supporters as something minor that had to be sacrificed to get elected.

There are tons of progressive programs that are proven to pay for themselves, such as housing first programs. They are not only humane they save money. Unfettered by ideological constraints the Liberals can do what makes sense economically much of which is progressive as well as economically sound. Likewise Trudeau's argument for radically increased spending in FN education is rooted in economics and Canada's future. With 70% of future employment requiring post secondary education it is imperative that 70% of our population has that education and the largest percentage possible have at least high-school leaving. Creating a cycle of dependence is far more costly than supporting citizen development into productive servants of capitalism. With a low birth rate the training of individual citizens becomes all the more important so they do not become a burden and they contribute to GDP instead of being a drag on it.

JKR wrote:

I see Trudeau as being a decent and caring person but also a person who does not have the depth of knowledge to implement policies independently. He seems to depend completely on his advisors like Gerald Butts to establish policies for him.

There is no more basis to believe that Trudeau's advisors feed him policy than there is to believe that Mulcair's do. Leading a political party is not a one person show. The PM does not write the budget and most definitely relies on advisors to present the options. By having a range of advisors Trudeau harvests a range of opinons that have already been heavily debated. Whatever arguments exist are boiled down to the skeleton. It is up to the leader to make the call and in that the leader is guided by conscience and personal values, and yes, by close advisors. I don't want a lone wolf like Harper.

Trudeau has had a mainstream liberal upbringing with an education that leans towards the arts and sciences rather than law and finance. His father raised him with an emphasis on body and mind health and intellectual rigor. Trudeau's minor speech impediments and his choice of occupations and academic path have led his intellect to be seriously under-estimated. That gave Harper's "not ready" message legs. In the debates Trudeau is overcoming that message and there will be another one Thursday. Harper will rue the day he decided to reject the consortium debates in favor of individual ones. The French Consortium debate is going forward and the multiple Enlgish ones are giving Trudeau an opportunity to debunk Harper's not ready ads and some of Mulcair's messaging too.

JKR wrote:

I think it is fair to say that his advisors do not understand the plight of the working class nearly as much as the NDP does. That's why I support the NDP as being the best choice we have to form government.

Whether or not the NDP has a better understanding of the plight of the working class is immaterial because their to priority is winning power and keeping it which is why it became a centrist party. They aren't even Liberal lite anymore they are as centrist as the Liberal party ever was. The left within the NDP is the equivalent of Harper's social conservatives, they get lip service only. They are the non-existant "secret agenda". 

If Mulcair is elected his top priority will be a balanced budget.

Pondering, I thought you were a Trudeauiste, not a Liberal.  So why all the talk about the Liberal party history, perceptions, rationalizations over and over and over?

jjuares wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

This is a perfect example of how Rabble has been hi-jacked by LPC operatives. There is thread after thread where we see discussions that turn into attacks on the NDP and the spread of LPC spin. This discussion is fruitless, and a time waster. I say it again, if the NDP had 15 - 20 seats and 15 - 20 % of the votes, there'd be none of this discussion and all you LIbs would be up to your mischief soomewhere else. What a waste of this site You Libs have wrecked this place!

Arthur, you are right. I have seen this movie before. Five years ago I used to participate in the comment section of one of our major newspapers. As we approached the 2011 election pro- liberal posters simply took the comment section over. They appeared to be very organized. This manifested itself in various ways. One way the Liberals did this was by voting ( thumbs up I believe) for the post they liked. This was important because when you logged on, the default setting was to list the post that was most liked at the top. They were many pro-liberal posts at the top. Sometimes an article would just be posted and there would be many votes for the Liberal response even though there were only a handful of responses. Their domination of the comment section became more pronounced as the 2011 election was called. Many of the comment sections of the newspapers ( with the Sun chain being a notable exception) are now overwhelmingly Liberal. So Rabble is now increasingly in that category as well. In word count, if nothing else this site has turned into a Liberal site. In fact so much so that the Liberals should have to declare the expenses ( marginal as they may be) of maintaining this site as a campaign expense under Elections Canada rules.

EXACTLY!

mark_alfred wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

jjuares wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

This is a perfect example of how Rabble has been hi-jacked by LPC operatives. There is thread after thread where we see discussions that turn into attacks on the NDP and the spread of LPC spin. This discussion is fruitless, and a time waster. I say it again, if the NDP had 15 - 20 seats and 15 - 20 % of the votes, there'd be none of this discussion and all you LIbs would be up to your mischief soomewhere else. What a waste of this site You Libs have wrecked this place!

Arthur, you are right. I have seen this movie before. Five years ago I used to participate in the comment section of one of our major newspapers. As we approached the 2011 election pro- liberal posters simply took the comment section over. They appeared to be very organized. This manifested itself in various ways. One way the Liberals did this was by voting ( thumbs up I believe) for the post they liked. This was important because when you logged on, the default setting was to list the post that was most liked at the top. They were many pro-liberal posts at the top. Sometimes an article would just be posted and there would be many votes for the Liberal response even though there were only a handful of responses. Their domination of the comment section became more pronounced as the 2011 election was called. Many of the comment sections of the newspapers ( with the Sun chain being a notable exception) are now overwhelmingly Liberal. So Rabble is now increasingly in that category as well. In word count, if nothing else this site has turned into a Liberal site. In fact so much so that the Liberals should have to declare the expenses ( marginal as they may be) of maintaining this site as a campaign expense under Elections Canada rules.

EXACTLY!

Babble transforms into "LIBabble":

LIBabble Policy wrote:

LIBabble.ca is a news and information source. LIBabble.ca embraces a pro-corporate rights stance, and as such encourages discussions which develop and expand such thought.

LOVE YOUR POST!!!!!!!

Pondering wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Pondering, I thought you were a Trudeauiste, not a Liberal.  So why all the talk about the Liberal party history, perceptions, rationalizations over and over and over?

Because it still plays heavily into their electoral prospects.

Except when it is negative. Then you tell all of us its old history and no one cares. Seriously Pondering, don't you remember anything you've written elsewhere, EVER? No seriously, Ever? I'm mot kidding, seriously, ever?

I think we will have to put up with them until election night I'm afraid.

nicky wrote:

There has been much criticism  of the CROP Papineau poll but little scrutiny of the Mainstreet Technologies poll that gave Trudeau a small lead.

Factoring out undecideds the polls indicates:

CROP: N 46 L35 B10 C5 G4

MT: L 41 N36 B12 C11 - Greens "not polled"

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/trudeau-leads-narrowly-in-papineau/

 A few random points:

[...]

Justin may not be out of the woods yet.

Thanks for that, Nicky. I have "quoted" it elsewhere to settle down the debate a bit.

The Globe and the Montreal Gazette have both jumped in as if CROP is definitely wrong. Not so.

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

First rule of propaganda: It doesn't need to make sense. It just needs to be repeated a lot. As an experienced propagandist, Pondering knows this. She just keeps saying the same crap over and over and ignores everyone who repeatedly points out that none of it adds up. Because what does she care? As long as she gets her distortions repeated on the board over and over and over, her job is done. The fact that it's bullshit is irrelevent to her. Scumbags and Liberals don't care about truth.

I don't pretend that I am offering up anything other than my opinion but here is one truth for you. With friends like you the NDP has no need of enemies.

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

Pondering wrote:

I don't pretend that I am offering up anything other than my opinion

Yes, your "opinions" that just happen to be magically identical to every bit of Liberal war room propaganda that slides down the sewage pipe. Amazing coincidence, you've gotta admit.

Yup, POndering's been officially found out.  And heck I'm probably voting for his party but this kind of shit makes me unsure.  God it is awful.  Is there anywhere on the internet that one can talk without party robots inserting drivel.  Fuck.

effing double-post

KarlL wrote:

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Pondering, I thought you were a Trudeauiste, not a Liberal.  So why all the talk about the Liberal party history, perceptions, rationalizations over and over and over?

Because it still plays heavily into their electoral prospects.

Except when it is negative. Then you tell all of us its old history and no one cares. Seriously Pondering, don't you remember anything you've written elsewhere, EVER? No seriously, Ever? I'm mot kidding, seriously, ever?

First rule of propaganda: It doesn't need to make sense. It just needs to be repeated a lot. As an experienced propagandist, Pondering knows this. She just keeps saying the same crap over and over and ignores everyone who repeatedly points out that none of it adds up. Because what does she care? As long as she gets her distortions repeated on the board over and over and over, her job is done. The fact that it's bullshit is irrelevent to her. Scumbags and Liberals don't care about truth.

 

There are what? 50-100 people who post on Babble Election 2015 threads?  Two-thirds (at least) have made up their minds long ago. So let's say that there are 30 people whose vote might be in play.  To engage for hours each week would be an incredibly intensive effort for a dedicated propagandist with 20-some million voters to convince, no?

Perhaps there are some big-time vote influencers on here or people who move media coverage.  If so, come on down.

I think people need to take themselves less seriously and to see this for what it is - a discussion group for those who have something to say and who like to argue, but not one whitsworth of impact on outcomes.

Nobody will get anywhere appealing for civility on this space, but really, we shouldn't flatter ouselves that any war room/talking point disepnser actually gives a toss.

There was much better rapport and content pre 2011 when the Libs thought they could laugh at the NDP and its supporters. When Team Justin won, all of a sudden here they were. I have no illusion that anyone of import reads posts on this site, but that isn't the issue. Lib sycophants have ruined this site. They can't take the chance anyone leaning left might come across this site and not want to beieve the only choice is the Liberals. Go away you clowns, you've achieved your goals. Get lost!

Pondering wrote:

In my view it is the intolerance of a few oldtimers that can't accept the evolution of the board that has damaged discussions.

There are plenty of threads and posts supporting the NDP.  Your primary interest seems to be Liberal bashing and presenting the NDP as the only choice.

Ignore...who?

Arthur Cramer wrote:

KarlL wrote:

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Pondering, I thought you were a Trudeauiste, not a Liberal.  So why all the talk about the Liberal party history, perceptions, rationalizations over and over and over?

Because it still plays heavily into their electoral prospects.

Except when it is negative. Then you tell all of us its old history and no one cares. Seriously Pondering, don't you remember anything you've written elsewhere, EVER? No seriously, Ever? I'm mot kidding, seriously, ever?

First rule of propaganda: It doesn't need to make sense. It just needs to be repeated a lot. As an experienced propagandist, Pondering knows this. She just keeps saying the same crap over and over and ignores everyone who repeatedly points out that none of it adds up. Because what does she care? As long as she gets her distortions repeated on the board over and over and over, her job is done. The fact that it's bullshit is irrelevent to her. Scumbags and Liberals don't care about truth.

 

There are what? 50-100 people who post on Babble Election 2015 threads?  Two-thirds (at least) have made up their minds long ago. So let's say that there are 30 people whose vote might be in play.  To engage for hours each week would be an incredibly intensive effort for a dedicated propagandist with 20-some million voters to convince, no?

Perhaps there are some big-time vote influencers on here or people who move media coverage.  If so, come on down.

I think people need to take themselves less seriously and to see this for what it is - a discussion group for those who have something to say and who like to argue, but not one whitsworth of impact on outcomes.

Nobody will get anywhere appealing for civility on this space, but really, we shouldn't flatter ouselves that any war room/talking point disepnser actually gives a toss.

 

There was much better rapport and content pre 2011 when the Libs thought they could laugh at the NDP and its supporters. When Team Justin won, all of a sudden here they were. I have no illusion that anyone of import reads posts on this site, but that isn't the issue. Lib sycophants have ruined this site. They can't take the chance anyone leaning left might come across this site and not want to beieve the only choice is the Liberals. Go away you clowns, you've achieved your goals. Get lost!

But was all that Golden Age bonhomie founded in a near absence of opposing party attachments?  As I recall the expectation of those posting on this forum (and I am doing this from a quick read a couple of hours ago so may not get it bang-on), it is to be pro-human rights, anti-racist, pro-feminist, pro-gay rights, pro-labour and pro-progressive ideas.  The last two are a bit more debatable as to what is "pro-" enough, but the first four almost certainly describe everyone on here in broad terms. So, if the church has broadened, it has done so under the express terms above.

If Babble was founded as an NDP (and further left) site only, then fair enough to criticize Liberals (or Bloquistes, Greens, Forces et Democratie or Alberta Party) for having curdled the milk, even for being trolls.  But I don't think this was meant to be an only X and Y need apply sort of place.  

And before you remind me, I also know that your critique is not just what they are but how they are.   But there is space for disagreement and frankly, neither "spin" nor strong party loyalty are unique to the Liberals on here.