Federal Election, 2015 - Seat Predictions | Page 16

Mon, 2015-10-19 15:15

pookie

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

pookie wrote:

I have no idea yet. I really don't.

But to contribute I will post what a well-known journo (who is far from a Liberal) just sent me in the context of a private bet:

Con 95 Lib 179 NDP 49 BQ 12 GP 2 Ind 1

I would not put money disputing this.

I posted my guess but if I were to do it again I would increase the Liebral number and reduce the CPC and NDP numbers.

A lost opportunity. I will be happy to see some of the Conservative defeats but the night will be painful.

Well, as I said in response it looked like a pretty good bet for me in the sense that I would not really mind losing.

I simply can't go that far so at this time I have settled on:

LPC 147 CPC 111 NDP 70 BQ 8 Gr 2

Mon, 2015-10-19 15:15

#753

josh

One final seat projection from a pollster. EKOS, looking like it's hedging its bets, says; LPC 151 CPC 116 NDP 54 Bloc 16 GRN 1.

Quote:
Some of these notable losses include:

Conservative Party:
•Bernard Valcourt, Minister of Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development, Madawaska — Restigouche, MB
•Chris Alexander, Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, Ajax, ON
•Gail Shea, Minister of Fisheries and Oceans, Egmont, PEI
•Greg Rickford, Minister of Natural Resources, Kenora, ON
•Joe Oliver, Minister of Finance, Eglinton—Lawrence, ON
•Julian Fantino, Minister of National Defence, Vaughan—Woodbridge, ON
•Keith Ashfield, Fredericton, NB
•Leona Aglukkaq, Minister of the Environment, Nunavut
•Paul Calandra, Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister, Markham—Stouffville, ON

New Democratic Party:
•Françoise Boivin, Gatineau, QC
•John Rafferty, Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON
•Maria Mourani, Ahuntsic-Cartierville, QC
•Megan Leslie, Halifax, NS
•Nycole—Turmel, Hull—Aylmer, QC
•Pat Martin, Winnipeg Centre, MB
•Peter Stoffer, Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook, NS
•Peggy Nash, Parkdale—High Park, ON

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/ekos-seat-projection/

Mon, 2015-10-19 15:19

#754

Basement Dweller

I'd be in shock if Stoffer lost. Doubt it.

Mon, 2015-10-19 15:24

#755

bekayne

David Akin's Predictinator predicts:

http://blogs.canoe.com/davidakin/politics/predictionators-detailed-seat-...

Oct 18 Seat Count

Mon, 2015-10-19 15:26

#756

pookie

Basement Dweller wrote:

I'd be in shock if Stoffer lost. Doubt it.

On that note, Francoise Boivin is a great Parliamentarian. I hope she pulls it out.

Mon, 2015-10-19 15:41

#757

bagkitty

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I agree with all of this except the BQ. At this point I do not know if the BQ will get more or fewer than their vote should get. With almost 1/5 of Quebec voting for them they should get some representation but with FPTP I could imagine that going either to a number too small or a number far to great.

That said, with their hateful comments, I while not pity them if they are short-changed this time.

There was a reason I was I opted for the ambiguous word "deserve" Sean...

Mon, 2015-10-19 15:41

#758

pookie

Can anyone think of a federal example where polling was really, really off (say, more than 5%)? I mean, even in 2011 polls were starting to catch a glimpse of the NDP surge...right?

Some are casting doubt on recent polls, because they are so similar across different companies.

Between you me and the lampost, Frank is clearly trying to walk back his earlier pronouncements which were FAR more bullish on the Cons. Some may remember that he was the first pollster to suggest that the Syrian crisis helped Harper rather than hurt him.

I won't believe any of this until I see it.

Mon, 2015-10-19 15:44

#759

JeffWells

Megan Leslie? Really? Peggy Nash, too?

I think I'll go to bed early tonight, get up very late tomorrow and maybe pick up a hobby.

Mon, 2015-10-19 15:57

#760

pookie

That was weird. DP.

Mon, 2015-10-19 17:48

#761

clambake

JeffWells wrote:

Megan Leslie? Really? Peggy Nash, too?

I think I'll go to bed early tonight, get up very late tomorrow and maybe pick up a hobby.

I'm thinking the same. Following politics has been too damn heartbreaking lately

Mon, 2015-10-19 17:49

#762

clambake

Unionist wrote:

clambake wrote:

I am not looking forward to this at all. I'll be watching the Jays game and avoiding all news of this election. I was thinking about having kids in the naer future, and the idea of national childcare was something I was really hoping for.

Lobby for it in your province. We've had it in Québec since 1998.

Quote:
And i've been wanting to see proportional representation implemented since I was a teenager. Now, it seems it'll be further than ever, or we'll end up with a watered down alternative vote reform.

I have trouble believing any party that wins under FPTP will take electoral reform seriously as a big priority - notwithstanding any election promises they might make. Has any NDP provincial government even tried (don't know for sure, so I'm asking)?

So lobby for that also in your province. One breach in the floodgates might be all it takes.

Quote:
This shit is depressing.

On that, we're in total agreement.

Good advice. Thanks Unionist

Mon, 2015-10-19 17:51

#763

clambake

One of my conservative friends voted for Olivia Chow to block the Liberals. I wonder if this will be a trend...

Mon, 2015-10-19 19:09

#764

bekayne

OK, here's mine

Lib 135 Con 112 NDP 80 BQ 9 Green 2

Newfoundland & Labrador: Lib 6 NDP 1

PEI: Lib 4

NS: Lib 9 NDP 2

NB: Lib 6 Con 3 NDP 1

Quebec: Lib 23 Con 12 NDP 34 BQ 9

Ontario: Lib 65 Con 38 NDP 18

Manitoba: Lib 4 Con 7 NDP 3

Saskatchewan: Lib 1 Con 10 NDP 3

Alberta: Lib 4 Con 27 NDP 3

BC: Lib 11 Con 15 NDP 14 Green 2

North: Lib 2 NDP 1

Mon, 2015-10-19 19:36

#765

Ciabatta2

pookie wrote:

I have no idea yet. I really don't.

But to contribute I will post what a well-known journo (who is far from a Liberal) just sent me in the context of a private bet:

Con 95 Lib 179 NDP 49 BQ 12 GP 2 Ind 1

It is on the high end - and harsh to the COnservatives - but definitely plausible, if the Liberals are polling around 36-38 with 338 seats available. I don't know that the NDP can get that many seats with the Bloc also getting 12 but maybe that's because the Conservatives do poorly in that scenario.

Friend of mine, from a family still deeply embedded within the Liberals, says tthe party is confident that they will crack 200. That's the substance of our bet. Hopefully the beer will come my way.

Mon, 2015-10-19 19:49

#766

brookmere

pookie wrote:
I mean, even in 2011 polls were starting to catch a glimpse of the NDP surge...right?

Way better then that, tthe final polls got the NDP vote within the margin of error:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_el...

And the other parties for the most part as well.

Tue, 2015-10-20 00:54

#767

gadar

I was wrong, way off the mark with my prediction, and I am glad I was wrong. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

Tue, 2015-10-20 02:39

#768

Sean in Ottawa

My Prediction was

LPC 178 was 184 difference 6

CPC 104 was 99 difference 5

NDP 51 was 44 difference 6

BQ 4 was 10 difference 6

GR 1 was 1 difference 0

I think I was closer than most of the big pollsters in the predicted seat count -- I was gunshy to go even worse but I said this

"I worry that it could be even worse for the NDP than this..."

Not too far off.

Tue, 2015-10-20 07:12

#769

josh

Nice job Sean. I was only 40 off on the LPC, 30 off on the NDP, 20 off on the CPC and underestimated the Bloc by over three times. So much for my prognostications.

Tue, 2015-10-20 08:17

#770

nicky

My revised prediction in post #736 was L 175 (-9) C 110 (+11) N 45 (+1) B 7 (-3) G 1 (=)

That's a total error of 24 which is one more than Sean's.

I am very sorry I was so accurate.

Tue, 2015-10-20 08:59

#771

Ciabatta2

I was off by 31. Sean and pookie's journo the closest. Good job

Federal Election, 2015 - Seat Predictions

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