Federal election - 2015 (Ontario)

Re negative projections for Toronto: remember that we're talking about 308 projections, not riding polls.

The only riding where I might vote Liberal:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/sensing-shift-ps-union-targets-poilievres-riding

jjuares wrote:

ctrl190 wrote:

The only riding where I might vote Liberal:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/sensing-shift-ps-union-targets-poilievres-riding

I agree. Watching Skippy lose would be nice.

I don't think it is within reach, unfortunately.  I can however imagine that Diane Finley, Lisa Raitt and perhaps even Rob Nicholson are looking enviously at the kind of Conservative strength found in Kelly Lietch's riding, as their own have ceased to be safe.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I have a friend in Polievre's riding struggling with the decision.

I can't offer much by way of encouragement, save this.  If there were some future scenario in which the NDP might plausibly win Carleton, then I can see it as a big dilemma as you'd want to build for the future.  The reality is that Carleton is a Conservative riding.  Even if the Liberal wins it this time, it would likely swing back the next but not necessarily to Poilievre, if he flubs it this time.  

So the way to think of it is anti-Skippy.  It is like the taking out of Rob Anders in which I suspect a fair few Liberal and NDP stalwarts took out Conservative membership to help Ron Liepert.

This Saturday! 7:30!

The Liberals are set to SWEEP Mississauga as they just released this ad aimed squarely at Mississauga starring Hazel McCallion

"Do I Look Scared To You?"

It might appeal to seniors across Canada who usually vote Conservative as Hazel is so popular.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoTsne3QxM8

Cody87 wrote:

 the first time Hazel made it on my radar was when she endorsed Kathleen Wynne, so at this point for me an endorsement from Hazel is worse than an endorsement from Rob Ford or Conrad Black.

DO NOT underestimate the power Hazel has over Mississauga. When she speaks Mississauga listens. There are six seats in Mississauga and the Liberals will SWEEP them all. Strictly for the fact Hazel is backing Trudeau.

KarlL wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I have a friend in Polievre's riding struggling with the decision.

I can't offer much by way of encouragement, save this.  If there were some future scenario in which the NDP might plausibly win Carleton, then I can see it as a big dilemma as you'd want to build for the future.  The reality is that Carleton is a Conservative riding.  Even if the Liberal wins it this time, it would likely swing back the next but not necessarily to Poilievre, if he flubs it this time.  

So the way to think of it is anti-Skippy.  It is like the taking out of Rob Anders in which I suspect a fair few Liberal and NDP stalwarts took out Conservative membership to help Ron Liepert.

You know, I wouldn't put the Liberals winning Carleton *totally* out of the picture.  The thing is, the "suburban parts" (Goulborn, S Gloucester et al) are still growing; and that's where the latent Grit strength lies--and as they grow, the Grit advantage will grow, too...

youngsocialist wrote:

I think Kellway, Chow, Hollett, Cash, Rathika and Nash could still win. Harris, Sullivan and McQuaig are going to lose. McQuaig by the largest margin.

 

NDP support is still strong in Toronto/East York, but weak in Scarborough and elsewhere.

I can't speak to the others but I live in Beaches-East York and would now be extremely surprised if Matthew Kellway wins.  The life seems to have gone out of his campaign and even the sign colours have turned.

KarlL wrote:

 

I can't speak to the others but I live in Beaches-East York and would now be extremely surprised if Matthew Kellway wins.  The life seems to have gone out of his campaign and even the sign colours have turned.

Yeah and what is a "progressive's" (LOL) tragedy is that Kellway's Liberal competitor is just so sub par.  The debate was like watching a teacher debate a student.  A number of NDP MPs are going to be replaced by fourth-rate candidates.  For all the talk of the NDP electing kids in Québec, you never see articles about how much trouble the Liberals had finding candidates this time around.  Such a shame.  Progressivrs unite - so we can elect Nathaniel Erskine Smiths?  I'm no NDP but even I can see through that one.

Predicted NDP ridings after Oct 19

Algoma-Man-Kap, Timmins James Bay, Sudbury, Nickle Belt, Ottawa Centre (squeaker), Toronto Danforth, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton Mountain (squeaker), London Fanshawe, Windsor West, Essex (by a hair)

To add I think only Harris and Stoffer will survive east of Québec.

DP

It would be a real shame if Cash lost.  I saw the debate between Cash and the other candidates, and the Liberal who's running in the riding is not impressive at all, IMO.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Jen Hollett wins by a nail in University-Rosedale. I've heard that she has the biggest e-day volunteer base for the NDP in Toronto. She ran an engaging and youthful campaign that could overtake the Liberals' "change" narrative, atleast locally, compared to the more establishment Freeland.

Craig Scott, based on the sea of signs, ocassionally hitting 8:1 over the Liberal in the northern half of the riding, will be safe. I think Davenport is 50/50, and Parkdale is leaning slightly towards the Liberals. I think Sullivan, Kellway, Harris and Rathika - ditto for McQuaig and Chow - are swimming against the tide.

Here in Hamilton, Hamilton-Centre is a shoe-in and Hamilton-Stoney Creek is a likely win. In Hamilton Mountain I noticed quite a bit of momentum for the Liberal candidate Shawn Burt, including a Trudeau visit last week, but I think the high profile city councillor and NDP candidate Scott Duvall is still the favourite. I've volunteered in Hamilton-Stoney Creek and the TPP and recent U.S. Steel court decision has given the NDP considerable fodder in the region. 

ctrl190 wrote:

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Jen Hollett wins by a nail in University-Rosedale. I've heard that she has the biggest e-day volunteer base for the NDP in Toronto. She ran an engaging and youthful campaign that could overtake the Liberals' "change" narrative, atleast locally, compared to the more establishment Freeland.

Craig Scott, based on the sea of signs, ocassionally hitting 8:1 over the Liberal in the northern half of the riding, will be safe. I think Davenport is 50/50, and Parkdale is leaning slightly towards the Liberals. I think Sullivan, Kellway, Harris and Rathika - ditto for McQuaig and Chow - are swimming against the tide.

Here in Hamilton, Hamilton-Centre is a shoe-in and Hamilton-Stoney Creek is a likely win. In Hamilton Mountain I noticed quite a bit of momentum for the Liberal candidate Shawn Burt, including a Trudeau visit last week, but I think the high profile city councillor and NDP candidate Scott Duvall is still the favourite. I've volunteered in Hamilton-Stoney Creek and the TPP and recent U.S. Steel court decision has given the NDP considerable fodder in the region. 

Agree that Hollett could sneak it.

Is Duvall taking any heat about not resigning from council, or running so soon after being elected again at the city level?  Duvall is fantastic.  He is one of my political crushes. Would be a shame for him to lose, particularly since the COnservatives and Liberals had such a tough time rustling up anyone to take him on.

I was very surprised to see how poorly Richler did considering his signs and team were everywhere.  The NDP just lost probably the best set of candidates, nationally, ever.  OUch for them.  Just ouch.

I was surprised at how many ridings in Northern Ontario went back to the Liberals last night, although they did use to hold most of them until a couple of elections ago.

It also appears that as Chantal Hébert predicted, the Liberals did very well in winning back the Francophone ridings outside Quebec:

->Moncton

->Madawaska-Restigouche

->Acadie-Bathurst

->Orléans

->Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

->Saint Boniface

And therefore, given the trends in those ridings, we saw the Franco-Ontarian support shift back to the Liberals in:

->Sudbury

->Nipissing-Timiskaming

->Nickel Belt

->Thunder Bay-Superior North

->Thunder Bay-Rainy River

->Kenora (although I thought Nault & Hampton were very lucky that their split didn't give the riding to Greg Rickford.  I predicted to someone yesterday that Rickford & the Cons would retain Kenora because of the high-profile fight between  a high-profile Lib & a high-profile New Dem.  Thankfully, Rickford finished 3rd.)

I hope Liberal & NDP supporters can agree that it's great that a number of the jerk Conservative MP's went down.

For example, I'm glad that the NDP took down the smarmy Jeff Watson in Essex.

ctrl190 wrote:

Does anyone know what happened to Rathika Sitsabaiesan in Scarborough North?

I believe she is the only NDP incumbent that lost outside of Quebec who placed third. I know that the riding was rejigged and included a sizeable chunk of Scarborough-Agincourt which is historically a Dipper dead zone. Also, the Conservative candidate was also Tamil, which may have eaten into her cultural base. 

Scarborough North

Liberal Shaun Chen 18,904 48.2 %

Conservative Ravinder Malhi 10,737 27.4 %

NDP-New Democratic Party Rathika Sitsabaiesa 8,648 22.1 %

I have no idea how good a constituency MP Rathika was but I have to ask how nine months into her term, she could still have believed that Canada's population is nine million.

ctrl190 wrote:

Does anyone know what happened to Rathika Sitsabaiesan in Scarborough North?

I believe she is the only NDP incumbent that lost outside of Quebec who placed third. I know that the riding was rejigged and included a sizeable chunk of Scarborough-Agincourt which is historically a Dipper dead zone. Also, the Conservative candidate was also Tamil, which may have eaten into her cultural base. 

The Con candidate Ravinder Malhi is not a Tamil. 

It wasn't just the former Scarborough-Agincourt polls; Scarborough North also contained the west-of-Markham-Road heart of where Rathika was weakest in 2011.  All she really had going for her was the remaining Morningside Heights rump.

Re the second-place Cons, too: wonder if the upwardly-mobile Chinese Conservative lean played a part (much like CPC overperformed in Scarborough-Agincourt, Richmond Hill, Markham-Unionville--and actually winning the latter against Lib-sweep expectations)

KarlL wrote:

ctrl190 wrote:

Does anyone know what happened to Rathika Sitsabaiesan in Scarborough North?

I believe she is the only NDP incumbent that lost outside of Quebec who placed third. I know that the riding was rejigged and included a sizeable chunk of Scarborough-Agincourt which is historically a Dipper dead zone. Also, the Conservative candidate was also Tamil, which may have eaten into her cultural base. 

Scarborough North

Liberal Shaun Chen 18,904 48.2 %

Conservative Ravinder Malhi 10,737 27.4 %

NDP-New Democratic Party Rathika Sitsabaiesa 8,648 22.1 %

I have no idea how good a constituency MP Rathika was but I have to ask how nine months into her term, she could still have believed that Canada's population is nine million.

 Actually she was a great MP, she'd help anyone in Scarbough not just people in her riding, the people of scarbrough had a royal brain shit when they picked Liberal scum over her.

 And she pooched the population number once, so the fuck what, one tiny brain fart doesn't define an entire career of service to her country and her community.