Conservative leadership race #1

i don't get this comment. you're making a hypothetical then kicking it down??

ok

Sean:   RE: post 359

On political parties targeting the extreme 20-25% due to lowering voter turnout, I agree this dynamic is real, but I think it is situational and not likely to continue.  

I see the NDP’s  move to the middle as a response to an opportunity – the voters wanted anyone but Harper and the weak Liberals and Tom’s mostly excellent performance gave them a real shot at power.   They wanted to overcome the perception that they were poor economic managers and not “too radical” to be trusted with power.  It largely backfired on them because the moderate middle was ready for left economic policies and Keynesian spending and the Liberals did their typical swerve left end run.

In the case of the US, I think Trump has largely aimed his message at the moderate middle.   He made direct class based appeals to workers and entrepreneurs in his campaign, undeniably a large factor in his victory. 

I agree microtargeting is important, and that was a factor, but there was also just a competence gap.   The Liberal social media and on the ground campaign was terrifically organized and executed.   They spent a ton of money and got what they paid for.   I think this, the historical anti-NDP bias of corporate Canadian media, and Trudeau’s campaign performance were all big factors.

One other slightly related point – I think it is a mistake to think that low voter turnout will necessarily continue.   Canada is a stable rich country relatively free from political violence.   If that changes, or even seems likely to change, more people will become active politically.   Also, we may see that as the political parties polarize, voter turnout from moderates increases as well.

Overall great post, thanks, lots to think about.   Regarding your 3 types of conservatives, I think the 3rd option (religious right homophobe/sexist  but economically centrist) is least likely on the federal level, but I guess we’ll see.

http://www.canada.com/news/national/andrew+coyne+kevin+99leary+could+imp...

Suppose, for the sake of argument, Kevin O’Leary were not an idiot. 

Quote:

Kevin O’Leary doesn’t have a clue how the country he hopes to govern one day operates. Not a clue. While his delusional fantasies about how he would rule his kingdom may fly with members of the Conservative base, they are not rooted in any kind of reality. In fact, they are so detached from it, alarms should be ringing everywhere.

Nobody like that could reasonably hope to be chosen.

I was being facetious.  I recently read of some fellow just like him who grabbed the brass ring back in November.

Bernier 31

Scheer 23

O'Toole 11

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/05/02/bernier-takes-daunting-lead-in-cpc-race/

ken he's been pretty much invisible in AB over the past couple of months since he won the PC leadership.

it must be hard work trying to legally create 1 party from 2 when you're not legally allowed to transfer assets from either to a new entity or something. it'd be interesting to see how they're quietly divesting the assets....

they must've found a way to divest their monies into 1 entity.

now can Kenney beat Jean or is it going to be the PC leadership race all over again?

I haven't paid any attention to the Conservative leadership race, but every time I hear that Scheer is competitive for leader it makes me wonder what's changed since he was speaker. The few times I saw him as speaker he always stood out to me as having less than no authority, like an awkward teenager trying to keep his drunken uncles from fighting at family reunions. Isn't he in his mid 30's? That seems really young for a social conservative party. And he's in the top three that the party has to run against Trudeau and whoever the NDP comes up with?

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Scheer is 38.  Same age as Singh btw.  And Zoolander was 41 when elected leader of the Liberal Party.

Zoolander and Singh weren't/aren't running for social conservative parties who tend to appeal most to the 65+ voting bloc though. Regardless, I'll need to look into what exactly is the appeal of Scheer because prior to the start of the race I would have expected him to poll under 5%. And at his age he'll probably be back for their next leadership race too.

Voter breakdown will reveal the direction of the Conservative party as members elect their new leader

By Chantal Hébert

Fri., May 26, 2017

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/05/26/voter-breakdown-will-reve...

After trailing for 12 ballots, Scheer beats Bernier on the final ballot 51-49.

lagatta4 wrote:

Well, while dairy farmers may breath a sigh of relief (how can Bernier sell that in his rural riding?) 

He couldn't; he only beat Scheer by 1% there

So did the Conservatives make the right decision by picking Scheer over Bernier?

Some of the commentators are saying that Scheer is youthful, friendly, has a nice smile, etc. and that he will be a friendlier version of Stephen Harper.

Will it work?

Debater wrote:

So did the Conservatives make the right decision by picking Scheer over Bernier?

Some of the commentators are saying that Scheer is youthful, friendly, has a nice smile, etc. and that he will be a friendlier version of Stephen Harper.

Will it work?

I would concur with this line of reasoning. I thought Blaney and Leitch could both do damage for the Conservatives by tapping into that "if you don't love it, leave it" mentality that is spreading throughout the industrialized world. I think Scheer is in a position to effectively channel Donald Trump without sounding like him.

He's still women-hating filth. God, five kids already, nowadays. Must be a climate change denier as well... 

I detest Scheer (religious misogynist) but do confess I'm very happy to see Bernier's constituents vote him down. Beauce is part of the region on the south shore of the St. Lawrence opposite Québec city. It is named for a rich agricultural region in northwestern France, just southwest of Île de France, the Paris region. There are a lot of dairy farms in Québec's Beauce, and it is a region where "agrotourism" has also become popular. I wonder if the naming wasn't an early publicity stunt - several regions in the New World have been named for desirable areas in the settlers' countries of origin and the prospect of rich arable land would certainly have been a draw. 

Yes, I heard Chantal Hébert on Radio-Canada this morning. 

Oddly, Scheer's name comes from his Austrian Jewish grandfather:  http://ethnicelebs.com/andrew-scheer  And he's part Irish, isn't everyone? 

Hébert said the Qc vote for him was mostly farmers and others from rural milieux who opposed Bernier because of the supply management issue. And it isn't a lot of people, simply because there aren't many Cons in Qc. 

Andrew Scheer has his work cut out to prevent Trudeau rebuilding Quebec fortress

By Chantal Hébert

Mon., May 29, 2017

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/05/29/andrew-scheer-has-his-wor...

New concerns emerge over Conservative leadership voting process

The Globe and Mail

Sunday, Jun. 04, 2017

In an interview on Sunday, Mr. Bernier said the party must step forward and offer clear explanations on the voting process to all members.

“Is this a minor issue, is this not a minor issue? I want answers from the party,” Mr. Bernier said. “I think members have a right to know what happened and why there is a difference between the numbers of votes.”

. . .

One of the major concerns in the Bernier camp is that some Conservative members may have voted twice, once by mail and once at an in-person voting station.

In addition, the Bernier camp wants to know why David Filmon, the party's chief returning officer, ordered that all the ballots be destroyed immediately after the vote and why scrutineers were not informed of the discrepancy. The destruction of the ballots was anticipated, but the timing of the shredding is now in question.

There were a large number of calls for party “unity” before and after the results of the leadership race were announced. However, the position taken by Mr. Bernier and members of his team have sparked tensions in Conservative circles, with some rivals’ camps branding the situation on social media as a case of “sour grapes.”

At least one Conservative Party official is expected to come forward this week with a sworn affidavit detailing questions about the results of the final vote and the timing of the destruction of all of the ballots, sources said.

Full article:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/new-concerns-emerge-over-c...

Ken Burch wrote:

If the result holds, does it help Caron's chances in the NDP leadership race? 

After all, parties with Quebec-based leaders almost always do better in Quebec than parties with non-Quebec leaders(to my knowledge, the last exception to this rule was the PC sweep in Quebec in 1958-and to get that Diefenbaker had to set up an alliance with Duplessis and the Union Nationale).

Jean Charest barely made an impact in Quebec federally when he was leader. Jean Chretien came out of the 1993 election with nearly the identical seat count in Quebec that it had in 1984 and 1988, and only in 2000 did it come close to winning the most Quebec seats. Paul Martin in his 2 elections as Prime Minister saw reductions in the number of federal Liberal seats, which Dion was not able to improve on. Harper gained a respectable number of Conservative MPs in Quebec on his way in and the Conservative seat count in Quebec also increased on his way out. Jack Layton won a majority of Quebec seats in 2011, only for Mulcair to lose many of those MPs in 2015.

Well, that ballot thing has the potential to blow up. And Bernier is just the person who would do it. His loyalty is not to the party, his loyalty is to Ayn Rand and her hairbrained schemes.

Anyhow, it could be interesting. We'll see...