Our Way-Too-Early 2020 Democratic Primary Draft
Bookmark this to see how idiotic we look in four years.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-way-too-early-2020-democratic-p...
Our Way-Too-Early 2020 Democratic Primary Draft
Bookmark this to see how idiotic we look in four years.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-way-too-early-2020-democratic-p...
The 'Nate Silver Effect' is changing journalism. Is that good?
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/10/05/nate-silver-effect-jou...
Trump is on track to win reelection
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-is-on-track-to-win-reelect...
Is It Safe To Say Trump Is A Favorite To Win Re-Election?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favori...
I'll bite. This is my prediction:
If Oprah runs, she'll win. No contest. Reagan margins. Trump might as well not even run.
Barring that, Michelle Obama has a decent chance, I'd say about 60/40 in her favour.
Barring that, if Trump hasn't alienated his base (he probably won't), he'll win against anyone else who is likely to run and win the DNC primary.
There is a remote possibility that Dwayne "the Rock" Johnson could beat Trump in 2020. And he's definitely honing his political language so he will certainly run for something, and probably by 2022. I suspect though, at his age, that he will run for the senate or as a governor first, and run against Cruz or Pence in 2024 from the Senate or in 2028/2032 if he gets a governor position.
I think when Bruce Willis joins the race and runs as Trump's VP, all bets are off.
This is why I ignore news from the US.