With the leadership malaise the NDP has been in since the previous election, the NDP will begin to climb in the polls once the new leader is chosen. Right now as far as the NDP is concerned the federal polls are meaningless, and probably not worth the paper, or whatever it is, they are written on. Just the usual right-wing mainstream media nonsense.
2017 Polls
Thu, 2017-09-07 22:13
#52
Tue, 2017-09-12 17:20
#53
To be fair, Trudeau's biggest asset may be the mess that the Conservatives are in. They have selected a social conservative who does not belong in this century and by election day, Canadians will have that figured out.Hopefully the NDP has enough strength both in numbers and backbone to offer strong alternatives.
Scheer's seat has been NDP before. Perhaps they should try again?
I think there are 2 things that could be added to this analysis about the Conservatives:
1) I think you underestimate Scheer's potential appeal. Yes, he has retrograde beliefs, but he is more charismatic than Harper ever was. He also doesn't have the perception of being anti-Quebec that some perceived about Harper during the inital stages of his leadership. Canada is by no means immune from the racist undercurrents that are currently sweeping across the globe. In the last federal election, despite Harper's disgusting niqab ploy, 3 in 10 Canadian voters were still not bothered enough by that to cast a ballot for him, and this was before this all exploded with the rise of Trumpism. God help us if there is a terrorist attack during an election campaign. I think if the Paris attacks had happened a month earlier, Harper would have won re-election.
2 Conservative support relies primarily on Alberta, and something very important will have happened in Alberta by the next federal election: Alberta's provincial election. That is going to go one of 2 ways. In the first scenario, Notley gets re-elected. She has renewed political capital from having led Alberta through tough times. In the second scenario, Notley gets defeated, but it's not that simple. The Alberta NDP is currently polling at levels that all of us would have been happy over before the 2015 election. Even in the worst case scenario, I do not see the NDP being beaten back to 4 seats. With their strong support in Edmonton, they will likely elect a strong Opposition contingent focused there for sure, but also with representation from other parts of the province. In either case, this shatters the idea that Alberta is just a conservative place. Non-conservative interest groups and politicians will sense the opportunity and try to capitalize on this. In this context, there is only one direction in which the Conservative seat count in Alberta can go: down.
Tue, 2017-09-12 17:30
#54
"God" is mentioned in Canada's constitution and Canada's national anthem, so is Canada as a whole secular or is this kind of distinction only reserved for Quebec?Canada as a whole is not nearly as secular as it could be.
But at the same time, if all of Canada is still beholden to the Christian churches, it's curious why so many people would say "his turban isn't going to fly in Quebec, because they're secular."
Unless people in the rest of Canada are projecting their own intolerance unto Quebec.
Wed, 2017-09-13 15:35
#55
To be fair, Trudeau's biggest asset may be the mess that the Conservatives are in. They have selected a social conservative who does not belong in this century and by election day, Canadians will have that figured out.Hopefully the NDP has enough strength both in numbers and backbone to offer strong alternatives.
Scheer's seat has been NDP before. Perhaps they should try again?
I think there are 2 things that could be added to this analysis about the Conservatives:
1) I think you underestimate Scheer's potential appeal. Yes, he has retrograde beliefs, but he is more charismatic than Harper ever was. He also doesn't have the perception of being anti-Quebec that some perceived about Harper during the inital stages of his leadership. Canada is by no means immune from the racist undercurrents that are currently sweeping across the globe. In the last federal election, despite Harper's disgusting niqab ploy, 3 in 10 Canadian voters were still not bothered enough by that to cast a ballot for him, and this was before this all exploded with the rise of Trumpism. God help us if there is a terrorist attack during an election campaign. I think if the Paris attacks had happened a month earlier, Harper would have won re-election.
2 Conservative support relies primarily on Alberta, and something very important will have happened in Alberta by the next federal election: Alberta's provincial election. That is going to go one of 2 ways. In the first scenario, Notley gets re-elected. She has renewed political capital from having led Alberta through tough times. In the second scenario, Notley gets defeated, but it's not that simple. The Alberta NDP is currently polling at levels that all of us would have been happy over before the 2015 election. Even in the worst case scenario, I do not see the NDP being beaten back to 4 seats. With their strong support in Edmonton, they will likely elect a strong Opposition contingent focused there for sure, but also with representation from other parts of the province. In either case, this shatters the idea that Alberta is just a conservative place. Non-conservative interest groups and politicians will sense the opportunity and try to capitalize on this. In this context, there is only one direction in which the Conservative seat count in Alberta can go: down.
Lots of interesting comments here and I agree with most of them (just not the Paris issue-- I think the Conservatives still would have lost although things might have been closer and perhaps a minority)
Wed, 2017-09-13 15:38
#56
"God" is mentioned in Canada's constitution and Canada's national anthem, so is Canada as a whole secular or is this kind of distinction only reserved for Quebec?Canada as a whole is not nearly as secular as it could be.
But at the same time, if all of Canada is still beholden to the Christian churches, it's curious why so many people would say "his turban isn't going to fly in Quebec, because they're secular."
Unless people in the rest of Canada are projecting their own intolerance unto Quebec.
There are things I am uncomfortable with about Jagmeet but his turban is not one of them. I think that the effect of characteristics of a leader vary depending on the party. I think potential NDP voters may have less of an issue with this than the Conservatives for example.
Wed, 2017-10-04 21:30
#57
New poll puts the Liberals at 34 per cent, the Conservatives at 33 per cent and the NDP at 15 per cent.
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/10/03/liberals-conservatives-st...
Wed, 2017-10-04 21:34
#58
Taken before or after the leadership result?
Wed, 2017-10-04 21:51
#59
Those polls are presently meaningless
Let's wait a year until Jagmeet has had a chance to get around the country and then see what they show
Thu, 2017-10-05 02:00
#60
The upcoming provincial elections in Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta should also change dynamics before the next federal election. I think the Ontario Liberals will lose power next June with the Ontario Conservatives becoming government there.
Thu, 2017-10-05 00:53
#61
The upcoming provincial elections in Ontario, Quebec, and Ontario should also change dynamics before the next federal election. I think the Ontario Liberals will lose power next June with the Ontario Conservatives becoming government there.
I think so, too.
The Ontario Liberals have been in power for 4 terms. Ontario voters are in the mood for a change.
But it might be a good thing for the Federal Liberals to be rid of the Wynne baggage before the time of the 2019 Election.
Thu, 2017-10-05 02:02
#62
The upcoming provincial elections in Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta should also change dynamics before the next federal election. I think the Ontario Liberals will lose power next June with the Ontario Conservatives becoming government there.
I think so, too.
The Ontario Liberals have been in power for 4 terms. Ontario voters are in the mood for a change.
But it might be a good thing for the Federal Liberals to be rid of the Wynne baggage before the time of the 2019 Election.
I think the federal Liberals will benefit if Brown replaces Wynne.
The provincial Quebec election seems to be a toss up with the QLP, CAQ, and PQ, all in contention. I think the federal Liberals would benefit there too if their provincial counterparts lost and were in opposition.
I think the UCP will win the Alberta election and that will also effect the federal scene.
Thu, 2017-10-05 12:00
#63
progressive17
Given Monday's by-election in Quebec, I think we can say the CAQ has the best chance now...
Thu, 2017-10-05 16:30
#64
Too early to tell. The CAQ has done well in between elections before, and then fallen back when the general election actually comes around.
Plus, there is a lot of right-wing support in the Quebec City area, so it's not that surprising that the CAQ won there.
Thu, 2017-10-05 17:28
#65
That byelection is a devastating result for the NPD-Q. 1.3% of the vote is pathetic.
Thu, 2017-10-05 17:31
#66
Given Monday's by-election in Quebec, I think we can say the CAQ has the best chance now...
I certainly hope not and I wouldn't take it as a sign. A by-election can be a way of expressing current disatisfaction that won't necessarily translate into wanting to go so far as changing the government. My first choice would be QS but that is highly unlikely and my second choice is Liberal. CAQ and PQ are both unthinkable.
Thu, 2017-10-05 18:09
#67
That byelection is a devastating result for the NPD-Q. 1.3% of the vote is pathetic.
Meh, the longest journeys begin with a single step. Its a leaderless party with no public awareness and no money, while I was certainly hoping for more obviously, its not really a big deal for me personally as an NPDQ member. After all in Bernie Sanders' first elections he got 1-2%.
Liberals should definitely be worried though.
Fri, 2017-10-06 01:49
#68
If there's a chance Le CAQ pourrait frapper le ventilateur, everyone should be worried.
Sat, 2017-10-14 19:45
#69
If there's a chance "Le CAQ pourrait frapper le ventilateur", everyone should be worried.
Fri, 2017-10-06 09:12
#70
New polling
Seven-in-ten Canadians are saying they themselves would consider voting for a national party leader who wears a turban and carries a kirpan, while the same number are hailing his historic win as good for the country.
But according to the latest public opinion survey from the Angus Reid Institute, when asked about their own friends and family, half of Canadians say “some” or “most” could not vote for a politician who fits Singh’s demographic profile.
The greatest reservations are found in Quebec, a province where opposition to visible, non-Christian religious garb and clothing is well-documented, and where support for the proposed Bill 62 – legislation that would prohibit the administering and receiving of public services for those who cover their face – cuts across political divides. In that province, nearly half say voting for a politician who looks – and prays – as Singh does, is a non-starter.
Two-thirds of those who backed the Liberals in 2015 say they’d be prepared to give the NDP a look in the next federal election.
Despite Singh’s dominance of media coverage related to the NDP leadership race – including video from one of his rallies that was viewed more than 35 million times – just one-in-ten Canadians (9%) claim to be “very” or “fairly” familiar with him. Seven-in-ten (69%) say they’ve either never heard of him, or have heard his name, but know nothing else about him
Notwithstanding Singh’s leadership, two-in-five (43%) across the country say the NDP has a “real vision” for the future; and about the same number (40%) say the party can be trusted to “competently manage” government
Canadians appear quite comfortable with the NDP filling a role as the party of national conscience. Two-thirds (65%) agree that it should “remain committed to its principles, even if that means not getting elected”. This agreement cuts across political lines
Fri, 2017-10-06 09:50
#71
"Canadians appear quite comfortable with the NDP filling a role as the party of national conscience. Two-thirds (65%) agree that it should “remain committed to its principles, even if that means not getting elected”. This agreement cuts across political lines"
That's pretty funny. Unsurprising that Liberal and Conservative voters would prefer the NDP to be principled and not get elected. The not getting elected part being key.
Fri, 2017-10-06 10:57
#72
progressive17
Recent polls seem to have moved from a strong Liberal phoney majority to running neck and neck with the Tories, with no material change in Tory and NDP support. What I have to conclude is that 20-25% of the Liberal vote have now become unstuck. This is a very good opportunity for the NDP.
Fri, 2017-10-06 18:58
#73
This is a very good opportunity for the NDP.
And the Conservatives.
Sun, 2017-10-08 17:30
#74
First national poll post NDP leadership race from Angus Reid:
http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/2017.10.05_NDP_leadershi...
Lib 37% (=)
Con 36% (+2)
NDP 14% (-3)
Bloc 4% (=)
Green 8% (+2)
Fri, 2017-10-13 13:27
#75
35-35-18 now.
Tue, 2017-10-17 21:58
#76
- LPC: 34.6%
- CPC: 31.3
- NDP: 16.3
- GPC: 7.3
- BQ: 7.2
Nanos; Oct 13, 2017
http://www.nanosresearch.com/tickers/PDF/20171013%20Political%20Package%...
Ballot – The latest Nanos federal ballot tracking has the Liberals at 34.6 per cent support, followed by the Conservatives at 31.3 per cent, the NDP at 16.3 percent, the BQ at 7.2 per cent and the Greens at 7.3 per cent.
Accessible Voters – Asked whether they would consider voting for each of the federal parties, 54.4 per cent of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal while 45.3 per cent would consider voting Conservative. Four in ten Canadians (40.6%) would consider voting NDP while 37.1 per cent and 33.5 per cent of Canadians would consider voting for the BQ and Green parties respectively.
Preferred Prime Minister – Nanos tracking has Trudeau as the preferred choice as PM at 41.9 per cent of Canadians followed by Scheer (22.5%), Mulcair/Singh (8.7%) and May (5.3%). Twenty per cent of Canadians were unsure who they preferred.
Thu, 2017-10-26 09:03
#77
Abacus:
LPC 39
CPC 35
NDP 15
http://abacusdata.ca/canadian-politics-update-a-more-competitive-political-landscape/
Sat, 2017-10-28 11:31
#78
Poll Léger/Devoir
-CDN:
Libs (42)
CPC (30)
NPD (15)
Qc only
Libs (44)
CPC (19)
BQ (18)
NDP (13)
Mon, 2017-10-30 20:21
#79
Many people who voted for the Trudeau Liberals have buyer's remorse: poll
http://www.news1130.com/2017/10/30/trudeau-liberals-buyers-remorse/
"Mario Canseco with Insights West says 24 per cent of people who say they voted Liberal in the last election now regret it...
The Liberals are still generally in the lead with 35 per cent support, but the Conservatives are nipping at their heels with 33 per cent. The NDP has seen a bump up to 20 per cent after the election of their new leader, Jagmeet Singh."
Mon, 2017-10-30 20:56
#80
This poll supports my guess at this time the NDP should land around 55-65 seats in 2019. With liberals in minority government. This should give the NDP the strongest voice/leverage it’s ever had in parliament. Setting them up for a solid run for a minority/majority government in 2023!
Mon, 2017-10-30 21:48
#81
Well, it depends on the poll.
Abacus & Leger have the NDP at only 15.
I suspect that the NDP is somewhere in between 15 & 20.
Tue, 2017-10-31 10:35
#82
Well, it depends on the poll.
Abacus & Leger have the NDP at only 15.
I suspect that the NDP is somewhere in between 15 & 20.
I have not seen a Leger in the field since the leadership -- However, Nanos has the NDP at 18.5 today and the Conservatives at 30 with the Liberals at 36. These numbers suggest an uptick for the NDP and downtick for the Conservatives.
The NDP with Nanos recently has been:
Oct 1 -- 15
Oct 17 -- 16
Oct 24 -- 18
Oct 31 -- 19 (18.5)
In this period the Liberals have had a high of 42 and a low of 35 = Liberals 1 above their low
The Conservatives a high of 33 and a low of 29 = Conservatives one above their low
The NDP a high of 20 and a low of 14 = NDP one below their high
The Greens a high of 7 and low of 4 = Greens are at their high but have been there most of the time.
Nanos have the most frequent tracking.
The most interesting things you see from a poll like this are trends.
In this case the NDP had a slump in the summer but are back close to where that started.
The Conservatives had an increase in the summer but are back to where they started.
The Liberals have had a slide.
Of course this is mid-mandate. I think it is interesting to see all these Liberals professing concern for the NDP's tactics.
Outlook:
At this point these and other polls suggest that the Liberals could be falling out of their majority position at least for the time being. The Conservatives are not far behind.
The NDP is likely to regain their 20% position with Singh as leader shortly, however, in my view this should provide no comfort. The NDP traditionally had an efficiency floor of about 18% below which it would lose so many seats that it would struggle to find places to win. In my opinion this floor is presently about 25% given the density of NDP support.
The reason this floor is now higher is that the previous floor spread the NDP's 18% support in pockets of the rest of Canada with little in Quebec. In the last election those pockets were reduced significantly but Quebec provided a pocket of support. Now the NDP has lost the efficiency of Quebec but some of its support is still higher there so the rest of Canada has not regained entirely the pockets it had previously. Spread more evenly, the NDP needs a higher level of support to get seat totals it had previously. There is no Ed Broadbent like possibility for the NDP with 20% support and a lot of low-mid numbers in Quebec. Higher seat totals are can only be restored if:
1) restoration of Quebec numbers to get significant seats there.
2) restoration of the pockets from earlier times (this means with the Quebec numbers higher the total would then run closer to the 25% mark or with a lower Quebec total the NDP at 18% could be where it was)
3) concentration in other areas to replace the efficiency lost by spreading out more generally.
- BC alone is unlikely to provide much help to the NDP given that in previous times it already was a pocket of support.
- suburban gains are helpful but they have to provide more than a little in gains otherwise they will just be spread inefficiently.
- support may be found through the older traditional pockets: Northern Ontario, South west Ontario, Saskatchewan, BC, a little recovery in Toronto. More recent pockets in Atlantic Canada could be possible if the Liberals and Cosnervatives run closer together and support recovers there.
In other words the NDP has to be very worried about the present inefficiency of its vote. Of course if the NDP can gain to about 25% then it will make up for the inefficiency and end up with about what it has now or -- if it lucky -- gain this additional support in pockets, including Quebec, elect more.
The Liberal's broken promise on electoral reform risks doing to the NDP a greater blow than it has had in a long time -- without strong areas of concentration, a higher vote can be a disaster (consider the PC support levels from 1993 when it was left with inefficiency as the Reform party took its pockets away).
A close vote between the Liberals and Conservatives is also somewhat helpful to splits.
It is ridiculous that we are back to the lottery of vote splits rather than beign able to reflect real levels of support to come up with a balance of parties in the House.
Tue, 2017-10-31 12:10
#83
NDP appears to be creeping up with the latest poll out today showing them at 19%
Tue, 2017-10-31 17:01
#84
The Nanos polls don't really show a significant increase, but rather the continuation of an oscillation of support that has gone from 15-20 over the past several months (In August they had the NDP at 20.) The only poll that has shown a real significant increase for the NDP after the leadership race is the Ipsos one that has the NDP at 23.
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2017-10/Fed-...
All the others ones are in the range Mulcair was at before the race.
Singh has to be consistently in the low to mid 20's or above to be said to be in a true honeymoon period.
Tue, 2017-10-31 17:24
#85
I have not seen a Leger in the field since the leadership --
The new Léger poll was posted above at post #78.
But the Léger number of 15 for the NDP seems a bit on the low side, so I suspect the real NDP number is higher than that.
Tue, 2017-10-31 21:10
#86
I have not seen a Leger in the field since the leadership --
The new Léger poll was posted above at post #78.
But the Léger number of 15 for the NDP seems a bit on the low side, so I suspect the real NDP number is higher than that.
Was posted without link or date.
I finally found it and it is an online poll based on previous sample. It may be ok or may have some issues.
Tue, 2017-10-31 21:40
#87
According to this polling chart the Liberals appear to be crashing and burning. The NDP appears to be moving upwards in the latest poll.
Trudeau's in a jam. Usually a PM would lose a minister who has been acting like Morneau, however removing your Finance Minister is definitely not a good signal to the voters, as it coming off as just more Liberal arrogance.
https://www.nanosresearch.com/tickers/PDF/20171027%20Political%20Package...
Tue, 2017-10-31 21:39
#88
According to this polling chart the Liberals appear to be crashing and burning. The NDP appears to be moving upwards in the latest poll
https://www.nanosresearch.com/tickers/PDF/20171027%20Political%20Package...
I posted this earlier and commented on this. The Liberals are in a slump -- the NDP has recovered to where they were in the Spring after a bad summer slump. the Conservatives had a summer increase but have given that back.
At this point these numbers do not mean a lot yet.
The concern for the NDP is the distribution of this support. It is considerably less efficient than the Broadbent era 18% and if the party does not go higher it could lose a lot of seats.
Tue, 2017-10-31 23:30
#89
Trudeau's in trouble next election. Post-election 2015 I thought for sure he'd get a second term, I still think it's possible but it for sure won't be a majority. A lot of things have gone against him (even so, how do you lose 10% support in the polls in the first two years of a majority when nobody is paying attention??) and a lot more will before 2019. His actions haven't helped matters, either. If Scheer wasn't such a weak candidate, Trudeau would be screwed already. All three major parties have a chance at a minority next election. I don't think a majority is in the cards.
Tue, 2017-10-31 23:37
#90
The NAFTA talks, or more likely the breakdown in the trade-agreement with the US, may well finish the Liberals off. But unless the NDP offers a constructive people-oriented alternative like what has happened in BC, the Conservatives will become our next federal government.
Wed, 2017-11-01 08:23
#91
The NAFTA talks, or more likely the breakdown in the trade-agreement with the US, may well finish the Liberals off. But unless the NDP offers a constructive people-oriented alternative like what has happened in BC, the Conservatives will become our next federal government.
Why would it finish him off? If anything, it probably would increase his popularity.
Wed, 2017-11-01 11:34
#92
progressive17
The Liberals are going to be strong east of the Ottawa river, and the Conservatives are going to be strong in the Prairies. The fate of the next parliament is going to hinge on Ontario and BC. All the polls point to a PCPO government in Ontario, which is probably not good for the federal Conservatives and an opportunity for the Liberals and NDP. BC will have had an NDP government for some time by then, and if the economy continues to be strong in that province, it should be good for the federal NDP too.
Wed, 2017-11-01 14:35
#93
Trudeau's in trouble next election. Post-election 2015 I thought for sure he'd get a second term, I still think it's possible but it for sure won't be a majority. A lot of things have gone against him (even so, how do you lose 10% support in the polls in the first two years of a majority when nobody is paying attention??) and a lot more will before 2019. His actions haven't helped matters, either. If Scheer wasn't such a weak candidate, Trudeau would be screwed already. All three major parties have a chance at a minority next election. I don't think a majority is in the cards.
Guesses should not be made. The NDP is not in a great position at the moment given the density of its vote. The Conservatives are only at 30%. I think the Liberals are certainly not even a long shot for a majority. They will be challenged and it is not guaranteed but I think that the Liberals might end up with the lowest vote ever that delivers a majority:
- The Greens will pick up votes due to broken promises but may not elect anyone new
- The NDP is spread far and wide and at the moment has a finance problem and is weak in the area it was previously concentrated
- The Conservatives have a so-con leader are at 30% and no sign that they really can do much better. Even if they do it is not clear that this would be efficient.
- The BQ have gained support but it is not clear that they will get many more seats for this
Wed, 2017-11-01 14:37
#94
The NAFTA talks, or more likely the breakdown in the trade-agreement with the US, may well finish the Liberals off. But unless the NDP offers a constructive people-oriented alternative like what has happened in BC, the Conservatives will become our next federal government.
Why would it finish him off? If anything, it probably would increase his popularity.
The Liberals are in trouble with NAFTA becuase Canada is.
None of the opposition parties have offered anything concrete in terms of an alternate strategy.
If they want to damage the Liberals on this -- or if they want to benefit Canada and show they are worth voting for they have to do better than say stand up to Trump.
Wed, 2017-11-01 16:05
#95
Weeks before the 2015 election I recall the NDP being in first place and the Liberals in last. I also recall the Conservatives in first place at one point early on.
People answering the question "who would you vote for if the election were today" know that the election is not today and they are not actually voting. The answer is more a message of approval or disapproval in the moment.
I recall when Trudeau was elected leader and the Liberals soared there were comments about a honeymoon period when a new party leader is elected. If that is true then both Sheer and Singh are still in their honeymoon periods.
I'm not saying polls are meaningless I just think they have to be interpreted in context. There are dramatic swings during election campaigns. Trudeau's strategists and marketing team played a large part in my certainty that he would win and there were lots of clues along the way. I would even say he telegraphed his plan. He put together his "economic advisory team" a year in advance with names.
I didn't follow Singh's campaign for the leadership so I don't have an opinion on his team yet but they matter a great deal. He personally is extremely charismatic but it is matched by his intelligence so I am going to guess that he does have an excellent team and that they are already planning for 2019.
I look forward to an interesting campaign in 2019.
Wed, 2017-11-01 17:26
#96
Weeks before the 2015 election I recall the NDP being in first place and the Liberals in last. I also recall the Conservatives in first place at one point early on.
People answering the question "who would you vote for if the election were today" know that the election is not today and they are not actually voting. The answer is more a message of approval or disapproval in the moment.
I recall when Trudeau was elected leader and the Liberals soared there were comments about a honeymoon period when a new party leader is elected. If that is true then both Sheer and Singh are still in their honeymoon periods.
I'm not saying polls are meaningless I just think they have to be interpreted in context. There are dramatic swings during election campaigns. Trudeau's strategists and marketing team played a large part in my certainty that he would win and there were lots of clues along the way. I would even say he telegraphed his plan. He put together his "economic advisory team" a year in advance with names.
I didn't follow Singh's campaign for the leadership so I don't have an opinion on his team yet but they matter a great deal. He personally is extremely charismatic but it is matched by his intelligence so I am going to guess that he does have an excellent team and that they are already planning for 2019.
I look forward to an interesting campaign in 2019.
I am not sure honeymoons always happen. I also think that sometimes there is less of a honeymoon than a desire for partisans to answer polling calls so the actual support difference may not be as great and it may be measuring enthusiasm.
The more the smallest parties gain without efficiency the fewer votes the leading party needs to win and I think that will be a story next time. The Liberals could get a majority at 35% if the other parties are not very efficient.
The US political mess is likely going to hurt the Conservatives here I think and it may help Trudeau in a couple ways both by contrast and in terms of some sympathy about how hard their job is.
You make a good point about respondents knowing there is no election. I think as I said above this does not just change answers but changes who is likely to answer at all.
The Liberals certainly have some serious challenges, however, so do the other parties. It is unclear which of these will be deal breakers. The Liberals have a couple more serious issues in that the expectation they raised were in many ways impossible as they involved a certain amount of projection about what people wanted and the reality of decisions means some are going to be dissapointed. They have not delivered to environmentalist, Indigenous people and anyone concerned with electoral reform. they had a lot of support from people who may not even be counted on to vote next time. On the other hand the other parties have to show that they have somethign better and I do not think this case has been made. High expectations could lead to more cynicism.
Wed, 2017-11-01 17:39
#97
Pondering -- yes the last election had a poll with the Conservatives way ahead in majority territory in June, I think.
It was a poll I criticized because the demographics were wonky. I had a public argument with Quito Maggi on twitter about this.
Still there were a cuple others that had more modest leads for the Conservatives then and the NDP certainly led for a while.
As you know I have been very bitter about the ongoing middle class messaging. The Liberals did it the most but the NDP and Conservatives have also participated. I think that was the worst thing in the last election. They all raised up a word that was not defined and meant whatever anyone wanted it to mean.
This has raised the need (in my opinion) for an independent budget officer (perhaps similar to what they have in the US) to consider and report on policies -- who will get benefits and who will pay the costs. The fact that all three main parties fudged figures in many ways more than ever before will be a problem that will only grow in the next election unless it is fixed.
Wed, 2017-11-01 17:42
#98
On political panels the reason they give for the lack of bump for Jagmeet is that the media and opposition is running full out with the whole Taxes/Morneau-Shappell controversy. That it is taking up so much oxygen away from Jagmeet.
Fri, 2017-11-03 18:44
#99
Sat, 2017-11-04 00:42
#100
I took our conversation to the 2019 Federal Election thread.
Sat, 2017-11-04 19:16
#101
Odds of another Liberal majority a coin toss if election held today: polls
But the Liberals are still in a strong position thanks to Quebec
Éric Grenier
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-federal-polls-1.4381889