Ontario provincial election - June 7, 2018

I guess the hot story right now is the resignation of Patrick Brown as leader of the PCPO. The PCs will select their new leader on March 10th who will lead them into the election. Declared candidates are Doug Ford and Christine Elliot, with many media outlets (including the G&M, the Sun, CTV, and the CBC, among others) also reporting Caroline Mulroney will enter the race as early as Monday. Erin O'Toole has endorsed Christine Elliot. Interim leader Vic Fedeli has said he will neither run nor endorse any candidate who might run.

My prediction is one of these 3 will win the leadership, and will go on to the general election against, primarily, incumbent Kathleen Wynne's Liberals and Andrea Horwath's New Democrats. Current polling suggests the PC's are favoured to win, regardless of leader, although it's unclear if they would win a minority or majority.

As a resident of Ontario, I was distressed by this election before Patrick Brown stepped down, and now with the possibility that Doug Ford may be premier in just four months I am 100x more distressed. If I had to bet even odds, though, I would bet on Christine Elliot. I suspect the PC insiders will quickly unite behind "anyone but Ford."