2018 Ontario Polls

Pondering wrote:

Being a "change" election there is a very good chance people will move to the NDP to stop the Conservatives. It isn't that Ontario has suddenly become more Conservative. The Liberals are just carrying way too much stink. I wonder if Trudeau will campaign with Wynne.

I suspect Trudeau will hear from at least some advisers that he is damaged enough that being with Wynne is not a good idea. Also a victory for Horwath is better for Trudeau. (I doubt I need to explain the alternation principle -- but there are many political scientists who believe that a defeat provincially frees up activists to win federally. and concentrates donations.) Also even if Wynne won she is going to remain and stink up the Liberal brand in Ontario. A loss and a new leader in opposition is likely much better for Trudeau. On policy, Horwath is unlikely to give Trudeau much grief. I doubt that she woudl be able to lend all that much to the Federal NDP either at this point. Besides the federal Liberals are more worried about the Conservatives. Also Trudeau should probably stay out of sight and reconnect when the stink of the India trip dies down (hopefully after some trade victories).

I do not think Wynne really will want Trudeau either that much.

Jagmeet Singh is probably the more likely to enter the fray but I am not sure how valuable that would be.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Being a "change" election there is a very good chance people will move to the NDP to stop the Conservatives. It isn't that Ontario has suddenly become more Conservative. The Liberals are just carrying way too much stink. I wonder if Trudeau will campaign with Wynne.

I suspect Trudeau will hear from at least some advisers that he is damaged enough that being with Wynne is not a good idea. Also a victory for Horwath is better for Trudeau. (I doubt I need to explain the alternation principle -- but there are many political scientists who believe that a defeat provincially frees up activists to win federally. and concentrates donations.) Also even if Wynne won she is going to remain and stink up the Liberal brand in Ontario. A loss and a new leader in opposition is likely much better for Trudeau. On policy, Horwath is unlikely to give Trudeau much grief. I doubt that she woudl be able to lend all that much to the Federal NDP either at this point. Besides the federal Liberals are more worried about the Conservatives. Also Trudeau should probably stay out of sight and reconnect when the stink of the India trip dies down (hopefully after some trade victories).

I do not think Wynne really will want Trudeau either that much.

Jagmeet Singh is probably the more likely to enter the fray but I am not sure how valuable that would be.

Wynne is much more damaged than Trudeau.

Trudeau has lost some of his popularity, but he still has decent numbers.  It's Wynne who has the abysmal numbers.

So it's probably still to Wynne's advantage to have Trudeau campaign for her.

I agree with you that the unpopularity of the Wynne Liberals in Ontario is probably dragging down the Federal Liberals.  If Wynne loses the next election, it could help the Federal Liberals in Ontario in 2019.

I do not think Trudeua would be much of a help to Wynne. I think he is unlikely to move any votes towards her and could move a few against her. That does not mean he is less popular. Not everyone who says they would vote Liebral right now is enthusiastic. My guess is those who are woudl not be the ones Wynne would lose to the Conservatives.

Sure Trudeau might go through minimal motions in order to not make it a story that he is not helping but he will not help her if he dives in. The fact that 10% more would vote Liberal in a federal election does not make him an asset with the people that will matter in this campaign.

Also Trudeau is not beyond hope and things could get better for him but Wynne being attached to him would not be helpful.

As I said as well -- the Federal Liberals would be helped by Wynne going away. It is not that they do not like each other. They are just not presently able to help each other.

I think it's too late for that.

The time to replace Wynne was last year.

They have to go with what they have.

The Ontario NDP needs to figure out why it is doing so abysmally. This election was (is) a golden opportunity that comes rarely. The Liberals may have decided in advance they would lose this election no matter what. They let Wynne take them through it then start the hunt for a new leader they can groom. No party can stay in power endlessly and the Liberals were well overdue for a time-out. If it were not this election it would be the next. They probably couldn't have gotten a majority. They will be delighted to see Doug Ford at the helm of Ontario to teach Ontarians a lesson and send them back to the Liberals for a few more terms. 

The NDP is losing out because they have not convinced Ontarians that they can run the province better than the Conservatives and Liberals. 

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Nope.  Elections aren't about convincing the electorate you can run the province.  Not by any means.  Look at the last federal election.  Look at this one.

The NDP is losing because there is no way they can propose policies like this and be taken seriously.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/03/27/ontario-budget-to-fun...

 

There is no way they can be taken seriously if they don't. Maybe it is better to not be taken seriosuly proposing essential policies than being afraid to do anything other than taking the PST off of hydro.

Well, that's what I was getting at.  When they go big they get pilloried.  When they go small they get pilloried.  When they get a good idea, it gets implemented by someone else. You have to almost feel bad for them.

And then you see this:

https://twitter.com/AndreaHorwath/status/978679057255751680

and you want to scream: WHO IS ADVISING HER?  SUPPORT THE IDEA AND PUSH THE LIBERALS TO ACTUALLY HOLD A VOTE ON THEIR BUDGET!  PUSH THEM!  BE THE SAVIOUR.  BE THE CHANGE.

But nope.  Horwath took the NDP from 10 seats to 21 and now she take them back to 10 again.

I don't doubt they're sincere, I just don't get the positioning. The messages, the value signalling, the strategery is just all off off off.  Don't get after the Liberals for this proposal - get on them to do it NOW.  Push them into the corner to back it up with immediate action.

That is worth more than another "Do you trust them" type message.  Because Canadians have long shown that they really don't trust the Liberals but they are always willing to give them a shot to do somethign big.

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Don't bash them.  Give them a pat on the back and say: prove this isn't an election stunt, put it in the house and we'll vote for it - do it now.

I completely agree.

Never oppose what you agree with or you will just confuse people and have them assume that you believe in nothing.

Are you sure about that Sean?

I called them yesterday to complain about the Horwath response and got a live person, not even an recorded welcome message - direct to person.

I called the 1866 number.

Weird. Inspired by your post I tried calling the 1866 from the ONDP and got someone again today without any intermediary (I promptly hung up like a weirdo) , but yeah they need to fix that if when they're busy you get punted to a call board with no usable options.

I have to say, the guy that picked up yesterday (Dan? Dave? Ted?) was very patient about me ragging them.  And had a few intelligent things to say too.  Those people are saints.  I remember performing that function in my previous existence and man I can't believe I've become the person on the other end of the line LOLOL!  Age changes you I guess

Ontario polls will underestimate the NDP and here is why I think this is true:

There are two negative votes going on right now:

1) opposition to Ford

2) Opposition to the Liberal government.

I think that the undecided reflects people who are mostly decided about one of those seeking an option to best deliver that.

Opposition to Ford is going to land Liberal or NDP. Opposition to the government is going to land PC or NDP.

If they are split evenly then the undecided should break 50% to the NDP and 25% to the Liberals and 25% to Ford.

Now if you consider other issues like the fact that Horwath is more popular and experienced as a leader, Wynne a person who reminds people of policies they dislike (leader of a government) and Ford a guy capable of saying dumb things (like selling CBC to save Ontario money), you might think she could get more than 50% of each group of undecided to total more than 50% in total.

If I am correct this puts the election much closer between the NDP and the Conservatives than people think.

Now let's look at the dynamic of a debate. It will be Ford a boorish aggressive jerk across from two women. And there you have set up the kind of turning point dynamic that blew the election for the Premier of Alberta last time electing Notley.

The undecided voters dynamic favours the NDP somewhat and the election dynamic also does. Any flash of the Conservatives to the right  helps the NDP and the fact that the Liberals are claiming to be as left as the NDP is also an advantage.

Like I said elsewhere, the Liberals are not trying to win. I think they are going left in an attempt to bait the NDP to go more left and flame out equally to them giving the centre to Ford. If the NDP engages on taxation with a costed platform that promotes progressive things then the NDP will call this bluff and the Liberals will show how reasonable the NDP plan is and how radical the Conservative one is as they drive off the cliff.

If the NDP do a good campaign they may be looking at the perfect storm in their favour, especially if people see in Horwath the leader they prefer -- and I think that is possible.

The party has to manage things like how its office manages really well which is why I went after them today so quickly. Once the campaign starts there will not be time for corrections.