St. Boniface byelection

Most notable about this byelection, perhaps, is that if Liberal leader Dougald Lamont wins the Manitoba Liberal Party will become the only provincial Liberal party with official status in its provincial legislature between the Rocky Mountains and the Ontario/Quebec border.

Ken Burch wrote:

And it will be amusing to hear people who voted for Lamont try to argue that the fact that he was the only white man in the race had NOTHING to do with their support for him. Yeah, that was JUST a coincidence. Right.

From the previously linked CBC article I would just make a note of this, too:

Quote:

Elections Manitoba reported that 6,270 of St. Boniface's 12,960 registered voters cast ballots for a turnout of just over 48 per cent.

By contrast, the riding had a voter turnout of close to 64 per cent in the general election in 2016.

The election was the first time all voters have been required to show identification to prove who they are: either one piece of government-issued photo identification, or two pieces of ID without photos.

Until now, people whose names appeared on the voters list did not need to prove their identity by producing identification, except in advance voting.

Experience from the U.S. is that voter ID laws disproportionately impact lower income and minority voters. Not sure if there is sufficient evidence in Canada to say, but many of the same factors as apply in the U.S. would be at play here. Certainly that's not the only reason for lower turnout in a by-election, or for the white guy's win in said by-election on a lower turnout, but it could have played a role.

Yeah I thought that, too. Good on the people of St. Boniface for getting out to vote in the middle of the summer for a byelection with, at best, limited ramifications beyond those very specifically affecting the parties involved.

The fact that turnout only dropped relatively modestly from the general election doesn't necessarily indicate that the demographic composition of the people who turned out is the same, though. I was intrigued that this particular race only featured one white guy running against a black woman, a black man and a white woman.

If this win proves to boost the MB Liberals in the longer term, how much does that help or hurt the Manitoba PCs vs the NDP? I understand that in Saskatchewan, at least historically, the Liberal Party tended to split the anti-NDP vote with the PCs/Saskatchewan Party/whoever else. But in MB, historically at least, the Liberals seem to be fishing from the same pool (or, at least, contending most strongly) in the ridings where the NDP is the main competitor and to perform most strongly province-wide when the NDP is weakest. In other words, did Dougald Lamont's win just basically guarantee Pallister a second term?

ghoris wrote:

Not that surprising a result.

1) The Liberals threw everything they had at this by-election. For once, the federal party actually brought its machine to bear on behalf of the provincial party, and it showed.

2) I'm sure there was a bad taste left in a lot of Selinger supporters' mouths over the way Kinew forced him out. And of course, there's still a lot of division and bad blood in the party all around after the cabinet revolt and aftermath. In short, I'll wager a significant number of NDP voters just stayed home.

3) I'm sure the Tory vote cratering helped the Liberals. The collapse of the Tory vote was about the only positive thing Kinew could point to afterward, and even still it kind of looks like you're grapsing at straws when you've just lost a formerly safe seat that your party has held for 36 of the last 47 years.

Ghoris, your third bullet point prompted me to look up the history of the seat on Wikipedia, and particularly the NDP MLA who held it before Selinger: Laurent Desjardins. Seems that before he was an ND he was a Liberal! And his change in affiliation was particularly impactful. Interesting reading.

Quote:

The 1969 election was a watershed in Manitoba politics, and resulted in a dramatic shift in Desjardins's career. Under Edward Schreyer's leadership, the social-democratic NDP moved from third to first place, winning 28 seats out of 57 in the assembly. This was one short of a majority, and there was initial uncertainty as to which party or parties would form government. There was some consideration of an "anti-socialist coalition", which would have brought together all parties except the NDP under the leadership of former Liberal leader Gildas Molgat. This, however, did not occur. The impasse was ended when Desjardians announced that he would offer parliamentary support to the NDP, and change his party affiliation to Liberal-Democrat.

Desjardins's change of affiliation was significant, and on some levels surprising. He had previously been known as an opponent of socialism, and Manitoba's francophone population had not traditionally been supportive of the New Democratic Party before this time. Nevertheless, Desjardins was able to form an alliance with Schreyer (himself a centrist New Democrat), on the understanding that he would be able to continue to work in favour of denominational school funding on the government side.

In order to make sure this move was supported by his constituents, Desjardins organized a vote of confidence on this decision on July 8. Had he lost this vote, Desjardins would have resigned as MLA, and would have ran as a Liberal-Democrat candidate in a subsequent by-election. About 1000 people showed up at the Louis Riel School gymnasium for the vote of canfidence, and Desjardins received a standing ovation when he arrived in the hall. The vast majority of the attendees gave their support to Desjardins, with only 13 people opposing him.[7] Desjardins became Schreyer's legislative assistant in 1969, and formally joined the New Democratic Party in 1971.

On December 1, 1971, Desjardins was appointed Minister of Tourism, Recreation and Cultural Affairs.[6] In July 1972, his efforts in support of denominational schools were dealt a setback when a government-sponsored bill to permit funding was defeated by a free vote in the legislature. (The Schreyer government did, however, make administrative agreements with certain private schools to provide them with access to public monies.)

Given the lack of historical francophone support for the NDP in Manitoba, it was unclear if Desjardins would be re-elected in the provincial election of 1973, and his riding was targeted by a right-wing "citizen's" group in the amalgamated city of Winnipeg (which included St. Boniface). This group convinced the Progressive Conservative Party to withdraw their candidate in St. Boniface, so as to provide a single "anti-socialist" alternative to the NDP.

Desjardins's sole opponent in June 1973 was Liberal candidate J. Paul Marion. Following a very close race, Marion was declared the winner by a single vote (4301 to 4300). This result was disputed, however, and was subsequently overturned by the Controverted Elections Act. In December 1974, Desjardins defeated Marion in a by-election[6] by over 600 votes.

Schreyer's New Democrats were re-elected in the 1973 campaign. Desjardins had resigned from cabinet on January 28, 1974, during the ongoing controversy concerning the St. Boniface results, but on December 23, 1974, he was re-admitted to cabinet as Minister of Health and Social Development. On January 8, 1975, he was also given responsibility for the Manitoba Lotteries Act.[6]

Desjardins was easily re-elected in the 1977 election, although Schreyer's New Democrats were defeated provincially by the Progressive Conservatives under Sterling Lyon. Desjardins sat as a member of the opposition for the next four years.

The New Democrats were returned to power in the provincial election of 1981 under the leadership of Howard Pawley, and Desjardins was personally re-elected without difficulty. He was re-appointed to cabinet on November 30, 1981, serving as Minister of Health and Minister of Recreation and Sport, with responsibility for the Lotteries and Gaming Control Act. He was re-designated as Minister of Health with responsibility for Minister responsible for Sport, the Fitness and Amateur Sport Act, and the Boxing and Wrestling Commission Act and the Manitoba Lotteries Foundation Act.[6]

During the 1980s, Desjardins was a prominent supporter of Howard Pawley's efforts to expand and entrench French-language services in Manitoba.

On January 30, 1985, Desjardins was shifted to the Ministry of Urban Affairs. He was again re-elected without difficulty in the 1986 provincial election, and on April 17, 1986, he was re-appointed Minister of Health and Sport (once again holding responsibility for the Boxing and Wrestling Commission Act and the Fitness and Amateur Sport Act).[6]

Desjardins resigned from his cabinet positions on February 10, 1988, after a Supreme Court ruling that provinces could not restrict a woman's right to abortion,[3] and announced that he would be leaving the legislature to take a job in the private sector. His seat was not formally declared vacant, but he stopped attending sessions of the legislature after this period. He then served as head of the Manitoba Health Organization until 1990.[1]

Ironically, just as Desjardins had helped bring the NDP into government in 1969, his decision to leave the legislature in 1988 played a major role in the party's unexpected fall from power. In his absence, the legislature was almost evenly divided between government and opposition members; as such, NDP backbencher Jim Walding's decision to vote against his government's budget was enough to defeat the Pawley ministry in the house.[3] The NDP lost the election which followed, and did not return to power until 1999.