Canada and global warming: a state of denial

"Communities are still recovering from British Columbia's worst wildfire season on record, one year after a fateful two-day period in July 2017 that sparked more than 100 fires and prompted the province to declare a state of emergency." ...

In 2017, the Cache Creek fire "was the beginning of a devastating wildfire season that ultimately forced 65,000 people from their homes, burned a record-setting 12,000 square kilometres of land and kept the province under a state of emergency for 10 weeks." (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/1-year-anniversary-july-...)

However, 2018 is already ranked the fourth largest in terms of hectares burned in BC history since records started being kept in 1950 and August-September are usually the worst months of the fire season. Already 3,050 people have been evacuated due to wildfires and 18,720 are on evacuation alert in just BC. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/2018-burns-its-way-into-...)

The wildfires have already burned an area larger than Metro Vancouver and resulted in the Minister of Public Safety, Mike Farnsworth, declaring a state of emergency. There are 3,372 firefighters, including many firefighters from the US, Mexico and Australia, working on the firea. However, this is not enough, so the federal government is sending troops, planes and helicopters to help deal with this severe wildfire season. (https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-wildfires-2018-provincial-g...)

Experts note that the number of wildfires in Canada annually has doubled since 1970 due to climate change. So what is happening in BC fits the pattern and offers an explanation for why it is likely to get worse in future years.  

Mike Flannigan of the University of Alberta of the Department of Renewable Resources has been studying wildfires and the boreal forest for 30 years. He says the number of fires across Canada has doubled since 1970. 

But what is at least as worrying is that experts are now saying the fires themselves are part of a feedback loop. The fires are pumping thousands of tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere which increases heat absorbtion and global warming, which in turn changes the climate.

As the north warms more quickly, the temperature difference between southern and northern lattitues which drives the jet stream is lessened. This slows the jet stream meaning weather patterns stagnate,  leading to severe flooding in some areas and severe drought in others.

According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) literally thousands of heat records have been broken in places around the world this year.

Quoted by news agencies he says “My colleagues and I, attribute this to, and I can’t be any more clear on this, human-caused climate change”.

http://www.rcinet.ca/en/2018/08/16/british-columbia-wildfires-worse-due-...

Thanks for the map of BC wildfires Kroptkin. 

Climate change is already impacting and will continue to impact the province is a major way. Two of the historically most important industries and still major contributors to BC's economy are already suffering severely as a result of climate change and are expected to face even more economic damage.

A 2016 study in the  International Journal of Forest Research  concluded:

the future provincial economic impacts of the MPB (Mountain Pine Beetle) infestation in a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, by examining the effects of the reduction in timber supply from BC forests over the 2009–2054 period. Results suggest that there will be a cumulative present value loss of $57.37 billion (or 1.34 per cent) in GDP and a $90 billion decline in welfare (compensating variation) from 2009 to 2054 in BC.

https://academic.oup.com/forestry/article/89/1/100/2465746

The BC fisheries, which is also vital part of First Nations culture and economy, has and will continue to be hit by climate change. A study by the University of British Columbia Fisheries Economic Research Unit concluded: 

• Ocean physics and chemistry is being affected significantly by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, impacting key marine and coastal organisms, ecosystems and the services they provide us, including seafood.

• These impacts will occur across all latitudes, including in the waters of British Columbia and Canada.i This will have direct impacts on the fish species that are consumed by residents of B.C.

• The supply of B.C.’s “staple seafood” species such as Pacific salmon (e.g., sockeye and chum), Pacific halibut, groundfish species (e.g. sablefish), Pacific hake, crabs and prawns will be affected.

• This study predicts that by 2050:

  -We could see a 21-per-cent decline in sockeye, a 10-per-cent decline in chum, and a 15-per-cent decline in sablefish  stocks.

 -Prices of iconic West Coast species such as sockeye, chum and sablefish are projected to increase by up to $1.33, $0.77 and $0.64 per pound for sockeye, chum and sablefish, respectively, under climate change
scenario alone.

 -Climate change will add pressure on already skyrocketing prices, contributing to an increase of more than 70 per cent in the price per pound in 2015 dollars of B.C.’s iconic species such as sockeye and chum salmon.

 -For the 10 staple seafood species of British Columbia, the net change in price attributable to climate change could cost British Columbians up to $110 million a year in 2015 dollars.

• To begin to solve the problem, federal and provincial governments and private actors (businesses, NGOs and individuals) need to work together to make rapid reductions in CO2 emissions and eventually atmospheric CO2 drawdown, and instate other measures to protect ocean health.

• Without action, there will be massive and mostly irreversible impacts of climate change on ocean ecosystems and the fish they provide. 

https://www.vancity.com/host/.vancity.com/SharedContent/documents/News/V...

Even more important is the danger to life and health represented by the high temperatures and BC wildfires as we have already seen in Quebec and Greece in the last month. Nothern Scandanavia is suffering from heat conditions that have never been seen in the area. 

Climate change can be deadly if you live alone

Friday, August 3, 2018, 10:43 AM - Cities around the globe felt record-breaking, red-hot temperatures this July: In the United States, Scotland, Ireland, Norway, Algeria, Georgia, Armenia, Russia, Oman and China, the thermostat reached all-time highs.

In the Canadian province of Quebec, a weeklong heatwave was linked to 74 deaths (later reports put the death toll from the heatwave at 93), making it the province’s second deadliest period of extreme heat since the summer of 2010. At the peak of the heatwave, on Tuesday, July 3, 2018, Montréal recorded its highest temperature in history (36.6 C) and posted its most extreme midnight combination of heat and humidity. The stifling temperatures continued for most of the week.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/climate-change-can-be-de...

Wildfires that in California have taken six lives and in Greece 91 in the last month are related to climate change.  Within the Arctic Circle, northern Scandanavia is facing wildfires, people suffering from heat stroke, and crop damage from high temperatures. 

Wildfires are angrily raging throughout the world, in both places that have become synonymous with them and regions that have never seen a fire rip through before and where people can’t fathom how to fight the flames tearing through acres of land.

The fires are capitalizing on a triple threat of searing heat, jet streams that are tamping down on pressure, and a lack of rain that have made landscapes so dry they transform into flames almost instantaneously. The jet stream, in particular, is acting up, looping toward the pools with high pressure “ridges” but plummeting around the equator with low pressure troughs. That, combined with the unprecedented heat brought by climate change, make for prime wildfire weather. ...

But how do we know it’s climate change? On Friday, the World Weather Attribution Project released a damning report that argued the sizzling heat and wildfires burning the planet are anthropogenic—human caused, no doubt about it. The pressure systems have a hand, sure, but the heat waves in Europe, a continent that has rarely seen temperatures climb into the hundreds, are about to become a norm. There’s no way to sugarcoat it: Climate change is here, and we are living in its burning embers. ...

In Sweden and neighboring Finland and Norway—regions within the Arctic Circle whose summers are normally characterized by temperate reprieves from bitter winters, with temperatures hovering around 70 degrees and marked by pleasant, idyllic pressure and moisture levels—the heat wave has been so devastating that emergency officials don’t know how to handle the fires cropping up, the people passing out from dehydration, the sheer strength of the heat on withering crops.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/wildfires-raging-in-greece-and-california-...

Smoke from wildfires in north-central B.C. turned day into night Friday morning. An eerie twilight remained over downtown Prince George at 10 a.m. Friday.- CANADIAN PRESS PHOTO BY DARRYL DYCK

The title of the following article which accompanies the above picture is "High Anxiety in B.C.'s North as Wildfires Continue to Burn".

On CBC News Network, Prince George Mayor Lyn Hall said that because of the widespread wildfires in BC last year, Prince George, which took in many of the 65,000 who had to evacuate their communities in 2017, prepared a plan to deal with the expected wildfires this year, and will be drawing up a similar plan for 2019 after this fire season. Why? Because in his words "This is the new normal".  

This echoes what BC Premier when she blames the wildfires on climate change, hardly known as a climate change activist, said in 2015 following wildfires threatening Kelowna, her home riding. (https://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-premier-fears-raging-wildfires-the-new-norm-bl...)

CBC News Network is now reporting that more than 6,000 people have been evacuated from their homes in BC because of the wildfires and that firefighting aircraft have been grounded for safety reasons because of the smoke.  Airline flights are also being cancelled because of the smoke. 

August 19

Smoke billows over the northern shoreline of Nadina Lake, B.C., captured in a photo by a helicopter pilot who has been working on the fires in the area. (Dylan De La Mare)

Flights at several airports in B.C.'s Interior and West Kootenay regions have been cancelled or delayed as wildfire smoke continues to choke the province.

• Smoke from raging B.C. fires seen from space by NASA satellite 

Kelowna International Airport, Penticton Regional Airport and the West Kootenay Airport in Castlegar all reported several flights cancelled by noon PT Sunday.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfires-1.4791099

The thick smoke that's blanketed much of B.C. in recent days has grounded firefighting aircraft and made it difficult to detect new wildfires, officials say.

Kyla Fraser, a public information officer with the B.C. Wildfire Service, said that despite a relatively lightning-free weekend with few new fire starts, firefighters continue to be extremely busy battling about 545 wildfires.

• Air quality concerns across B.C. as wildfire smoke blankets province

The smoke that's choked the sky in many communities isn't making things any easier for crews.

"We have had to ground aircraft in some instances just because visibility was too poor, unsafe to fly," Fraser told CBC. "Smoky conditions also can pose a problem with detection and discovering new wildfires."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfires-august-20-1...

The title of today's Page 1 of the Vancouver Sun summarizes the health effects of the smoke from the wildfires: "B.C. wildfires 2018: Medical issues surge as air quality advisory becomes longest on record". This has brought about "a massive increase in doctor visits and prescriptions to treat lung ailments" in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.

Climate change is affecting us in major ways around the world NOW.

My son had to come home from work as an outdoor lifeguard, usually not a strenuous job, at a Metro Vancouver swimming pool because of the smoke was affecting his breathing too much. 

In some areas of the province such as the north shore of Vancouver, authorities expect a whopping increase in physician visits. Computer modelling shows a 120 per cent increase in daily physician visits and an 80 per cent rise in the number of asthma prescription medications dispensed at pharmacies, according to Sarah Henderson, an environmental health scientist at of the B.C. Centre for Disease Control (BCCDC). Henderson said the data is tabulated daily in the B.C. Asthma Prediction System (BCAPS), which was launched after previous severe wildfire seasons. The surveillance system tracks health effects associated with forest fire smoke, using data on asthma-related physician visits and the number of prescriptions filled for lung conditions. ...

Hospital admissions due to the smoke are not available because such information is not collected in real time, Henderson said. ...

The BCCDC warns that the smoke is filled with fine particles that irritate the eyes, throat, and lungs. As the body mounts an immune response to the particles, inflammation results, exacerbating lung conditions like chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder and asthma. The smoke can also compromise the health of babies, including those in utero, children, the elderly and anyone with already compromised health. “We are experiencing terrible air quality. Asthma is like the canary in the coal mine,” Henderson said, adding that while an increase in heart attacks and strokes are possible serious effects, more common effects from inhaling smoky air include pneumonia, bronchitis, inner ear infections, headaches, and feeling faint. ...

Francis Ries, a senior environmental engineer in the air quality and climate change division of Metro Vancouver said that the current advisory has been in effect for a week which means a new benchmark has been set. Last summer, advisories were in effect for 19 days in total, but they weren’t consecutive days. ...

The poor air quality has created significant challenges for outdoor activities. On Monday, the Whitecaps FC youth soccer camps in the Lower Mainland and Kelowna were cancelled, affecting more than 500 participants, while the Abbotsford Soccer Association announced fields would be closed. A Douglas College basketball game against the University of California Santa Barbara scheduled for Wednesday was also cancelled — all due to health and safety concerns. Both UBC and the YMCA of Greater Vancouver, which operate camps and outdoor activities, have recently taken measures to shift outdoor activities indoors wherever possible, and offer less strenuous activities for camp participants.

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/wildfires-2018-medical-issues-s...

One of the newest wildfires in the United States in the Glacier National Park fire in Montana which borders Canada's Waterton Lakes National Park in Alberta. The following harrowing video of a father and son caught in their car in the midst of the wildfire, illustrating how quickly such fires can put one's life at risk. 

https://k102.iheart.com/content/2018-08-20-hikers-attempt-to-escape-glac...

August 21, 2018

Passersby view the power of the Island Lake fire near Burns Lake from Francois Lake Road on Aug. 17. DAVID LUGGI / PNG

Some residents south of Burns Lake ordered evacuated because of aggressive wildfires continue to dig in to protect their homes and properties but may not be able to receive desperately needed fuel and supplies.

On Monday, a fuel truck organized by the Cheslatta Carrier Nation was prevented from getting on a B.C.-government run ferry across Francois Lake, the only way into the so-called south side, where several fires have burned hundreds of square kilometres of tinder-dry forest.

“They don’t want supplies or fuel to go in — it encourages people to want to stay and fight to the end,” south side resident Mike Robertson, a policy director for the Cheslatta Carrier Nation, said by phone from Burns Lake.

About 230 B.C. Wildfire Service firefighters are fighting three major blazes in the area, the Island Lake, Nadina Lake and Verdun Mountain wildfires, which together have burned more than 1,100 square kilometres.

The fuel for the residents is needed to run machinery, including bulldozers, to build fireguards. The guards are built by removing fuel by scraping away vegetation or cutting trees and brush, sometimes in strips kilometres in length.

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-wildfires-2018-residents-ne...

Here's a list of British Columbia Evacuations, Alerts and Rescinds from EmergencyInfoBC

https://www.emergencyinfobc.gov.bc.ca/home/information-for-affected-resi...

Political communications strategist Derek Burney, one time advisor to Brian Mulroney and now to Justin Trudeau demonstrates by his inter-party links and comments that there is no real diffeerence between the Liberals and Conservatives on dealing with climate change.

After all, despite all his campaign promises on carbon dioxide emissions, Trudeau was forced to admit in 2016 "the  Liberals are not going to toughen Stephen Harper’s targets for reducing industrial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions linked to climate change." (https://torontosun.com/2016/09/18/trudeau-adopts-harpers-climate-targets...)

Now Trudeau's advisor is "pooh-poohing the Paris Climate Agreement, calling its targets 'more aspirational than real' ", and promoting the Energy East pipeline to deliver Albertan oil to the Maritimes. Trudeau, himself, has announced the creation of an ad hoc committee to deal with BC wildfires and help communities rebuild. (https://www.straight.com/news/1119826/bc-wildfires-rage-trudeau-cabinet-...)

This is exactly what he did last year during the horrendous  2017 BC wildfire season, the largest in the province's history, that burnt 12,160 square km, left 65,000 homeless and put BC in a state of emergency for ten weeks. 2018 is already the third largest in history and we still have part of August and all of September, the worst two months of the BC wildfire season left. So much for the effectiveness of Trudeau's ad hoc committee. 

By the way, Burney is playing with the words of the Paris Accord, something the Liberals are very good at, when he calls it "aspirational" because he knows that Trudeau's policies will never come close to meeting its goals. In the Paris Accord, Canada, along with all other signatories, "COMMITTED to keeping the rise in global temperatures below two degrees, a level beyond which scientists think there could be catastrophic consequences." All countries also agreed to another goal, namely: "Countries set a 1.5-degree rise as an aspirational goal. (That aspiration was seen as a victory for small island nations.)" In other words Canada has committed, not merely aspired, to a Paris Accord goal.  It looks like they are going to keep their Paris Accord commitments to the same extent that they kept their commitments in the Kyoto Protocol. (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/what-canada-agreed-to-in-p...) 

It was the small island nations, which is an alliance of 40 small island low lying nations mostly in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, who pushed for and achieved getting the 1.5 degree aspirational goal into the Accord because many of them feel they will no longer exist due to sea level rise if average global temperatures are allowed to rise higher. I am sure they are sending thank you letters to Trudeau. 

BC's Indigenous leaders feel they are not receiving anywhere near the same level of support as other BC residents with regard to BC's wildfires. In other words, it's always the same story for Indigenous people no matter the problem. 

B.C. Indigenous leaders are calling on federal and provincial governments to set up an emergency fund for Indigenous communities dealing with the aftermath of wildfires. The fund was one of several recommendations in a 2017 report authored by B.C. First Nations groups following that year’s record-breaking wildfire season.

The report urged “support for those evacuated or relocated and for recovery, restoration and/or rebuilding of lands, homes, infrastructure in First Nations communities,” as well as support for training, supplies and equipment for emergency responders.

“We can’t continue being held in ‘no man’s land’ between the two levels of government while they try to decide who will contribute first and how much,” said Grand Chief Steward Philip, president of the Union of British Columbia Indian Chiefs, in a statement. “This has created a frustrating situation for impacted communities.”

https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2018/08/22/bc-indigenous-leaders-call-...

First Nations community leaders in BC say the fragmented system for fighting wildfires that makes BC responsible for the province's regional districts but gives the federal government authority for First Nations is hampering the ability of Indigenous groups to fight wildfires.

On CBC News Network yesterday Grand Chief Edward John of the Tl’azt’en Nation located in northern BC that this is a major problem for First Nations because while they are only 5% of the population, they are 50% of those affected and evacuated because of the rapidly increasing number of wildfires associated with climate change. Many northern First Nations communities live in or near the northern boreal forests of Canada that are being ravaged by these wildfires, yet the Trudeau government continues to refuse to provide an emergency and response response fund to deal with the problem.

During last year’s worst wildfire season in B.C., Grand Chief Ed John of the First Nations Summit called on the federal government to create a $200-million emergency preparedness and response fund for Indigenous communities in the province. He said the fund should support First Nations for at least the next four years to create emergency response plans, buy equipment and train members.

The province has funded municipalities and regional districts to prepare for wildfires and the federal government must do the same for First Nations, he said. “First Nations communities feel isolated and have largely been unfairly left to their own devices,” he said in his proposal. John said the federal government declined his request last year, so he is reissuing it.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-disjoint...

Research is showing that we need to pay more attention that the growing number and intensity of wildfires is having on our water supply. Since the 2003 Lost Creek fire in Alberta, research members of the Southern Rockies Watershed Project have been studying the effects of natural disturbance by wildfire on hydrology, water quality, and aquatic ecology, as climate change has increased the number and intensity of wildfires, as well as the speed at which they spread.

Professor Monica Emelko, a water treatment engineer, describes one conclusion of the Project: “If the intensity is there and enough of the watershed is burned, you can have a very significant impact on the water supply and that impact can be long-lasting. “If the intensity is there and enough of the watershed is burned, you can have a very significant impact on the water supply and that impact can be long-lasting.”

Another Project member, hydrologist Uldis Silins from the University of Alberta, notes that as climate change intensified “Fire managers started to see wildfire behaviour that was at the extreme end or beyond anything that had been previously observed.” They also observed that as the intensity and speed of fires ramped up, blazes that used to calm down overnight kept raging. At Lost Creek, firefighters reported walls of flame 150 metres high rolling through trees at 2 a.m. 

A 2016 published paper found the effects of that fire were visible in rivers and streams more than a decade later. Runoff began earlier and was faster, increasing erosion and creating drier forests. Nutrients such as phosphorus were up to 19 times greater — good for aquatic bugs but also for algae. “Some of these streams became choked with algae,” Silins said. “We’ve seen lasting and pretty profound impacts on water quality and aquatic ecology.”

The project has seen similar effects from other fires it’s studied. Some effects are detectable hundreds of kilometres downstream from the flames and have serious consequences for urban water treatment. ...

Nutrients that choke streams can also create microbe growth in water pipes and distribution networks. They can react with chemicals used to purify water to form compounds that are themselves harmful. Emelko said nutrients from fires can show up far downstream and last for years.

Climate change loads the dice in favour of wildfires by creating longer fire seasons and drier forests, as well as increasing the number of dead, combustible trees through climate-related insect outbreaks. ...

Natural Resources Canada says those effects could double the amount of boreal forest burned by the end of this century compared with recent records. Meanwhile, those forests are the source of much of our water. Two-thirds of the water used in Alberta comes from forested landscapes. “As we see these fires more frequently with more severity, the types of impacts to our water are likely to be seen more broadly,” said Silins.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/hard-on-water-smoke-not-the-only-lo...

The 2017 and 2018 BC wildfire seasons have raised questions about climate change models; not they have been alarmist but rather that they have been too guarded in their predictions of the future. While they predicted longer, more intense wildfire seasons, these were not expected until 2050. However, when more than 12,000 square km went up in flames last year, followed by another 9,640 square km so far this year with at least a month left in the wildfire season, it is time to re-evaluate the models and to change how we deal with wildfires.

Although a complex network of factors are affecting the severity of the wildfires, including very little controlled and tradional First Nations burning of underbrush in order to reduce fuel for the wildfires, global warming has played a major role in accelerating the process.

We can no longer afford to follow the BC and federal Liberals policy of neglect of our forests and promotion of fossil fuel megaprojects if we are to deal effectively with our rapidly changing climate. 

Warmer weather brings longer wildfire seasons and more lightning, while the atmosphere gets better at sucking the moisture out of plants and dead wood, researchers say. The end result is both bigger and more intense fires, and Flannigan's research suggests a significant increase in wildfire intensity in recent years. ...

For the last two years, the hot and dry weather that has allowed so many large fires to develop in B.C. has been driven by a blocking ridge of high pressure that's been stuck over the province for much of the summer. The air beneath that ridge sinks, warms and dries, creating perfect conditions for a "raging inferno" if it sticks around for a week or more, according to Mike Flannigan, professor of wildland fire at the University of Alberta. ...

That stagnant pattern has developed because the jet stream is weakening as the Arctic warms, a phenomenon that could spell more bad news for B.C., he said. "There is a suggestion [in the] research that … because of the way the Arctic ice is melting, that a favoured position for this ridge is along the West Coast. If that's the case, then odds are that we're going to see a lot of bad fire seasons in British Columbia," Flannigan said. ...

Limiting the release of greenhouse gases might be a good long-term option, but both Gray and Flannigan point out that any positive impacts won't be felt for several decades. In the meantime, they would like to see more measures like controlled burning, thinning out forests around communities, preparing homes and businesses through the Fire Smart program, developing early warning systems for wildfires and allowing more fires to burn if they aren't threatening human homes, lives or infrastructure. ...

Unfortunately, B.C. has been lagging on taking preventive action, according to former BC Liberal cabinet minister George Abbott, co-author of the independent review of the 2017 flood and wildfire seasons. ...

As a long-term member of the B.C. Legislature, while the previous Liberal government was in power, Abbott said he accepts a significant portion of the responsibility for the lack of wildfire prevention work since 239 homes were burned in the 2003 Okanagan Mountain Park wildfire in Kelowna .

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/the-future-looks-grim-af...

The brief rains and slightly cooler temperatures in BC will not prevent the worst wildfire season in the province's history from continuing for weeks because of the drought conditions throughout much of the province, which was what was predicted by climate change models.

Nearly one-quarter of B.C.'s regions are now at the highest drought rating, with no significant rain in the forecast.  And while those fighting the province's more than 500 wildfires have welcomed the recent rain and cooler temperatures, a spokesperson for the B.C. wildfire service says the fires will continue to burn for weeks. 

"Until we see that widespread and fairly sustained rain, we do expect the fire season to be continuing for two to three weeks at the very least across the province," Kevin Skrepnek said Monday morning. ...

 

A number of streams in B.C.'s northwest, including Dahlie Creek near Smithers, are dry, as drought levels worsen throughout the province. (Jana Harmati)

Valerie Cameron, B.C.'s water stewardship manager, says she has never seen the northern part of the province this dry. ...

Cameron says all of B.C.'s coastal areas have been hit by drought, which could continue well into September. While she can't definitively say this is the driest Northern B.C. has ever been, Cameron says it's the driest she has seen it during her career.  ... The same conditions that are creating B.C.'s drought have also created the devastating wildfire season, which is nowhere close to over, with 536 fires still burning as of Monday morning.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/drought-worsens-as-fires...

Canada continues its pitiful record on climate change ranking #51 out of 60 countries on the 2018 Climate Change Performance Index just ahead of such major GHG emissions leaders as Russia, the USA and Saudi Arabia. 

Canada  #51

As one of the largest producers of absolute greenhouse gases as well as per capita emissions, Canada is ranked 51st in this year’s CCPI edition. Additionally, having a very low-rated 2030 GHG reduction target, the country will need higher ambitions to be on track with a well-below-2°C compatible pathway. Regarding the category energy use, Canada’s performance is very low in terms of the current level as well as the 2030 target. Having large hydropower capacities and a very positive trend from other renewable capacities as wind or solar, Canada receives a medium rating in the renewables category. Canada gets comparably very high grades for its performance in international climate diplomacy. Domestically, experts praise the leadership of several provinces having ambitious 2030 targets for their per capita emissions and energy supply from renewable sources. Nonetheless, experts also criticize the lack of a joined climate responsibility on the national level and demand more specific strategies in order to progress on decarbonizing the country’s economy. 

http://germanwatch.org/de/download/20503.pdf

Each year we see the level of damage done by climate change rise in the Arctic and Antarctic regions with major impacts not only for these regions but globally as sea levels rise that threatens to flood many of the coastal cities of the world. This rapid rise in Arctic, Antarctic and glacier melting is due not only to rising temperatures but also to the albedo effect, which involves the increase in solar heat absorption when white snow and ice change to the darker colour of liquid water, further accelerating the rise in temperature of the water. This is resulting in the Arctic and Antarctic having the largest gains in average temperature. 

In the North of Canada, these impacts include: 

• Changes in permafrost, sea ice, lake ice and snow cover affect infrastructure. 

• Biodiversity decreases. Polar bears, beluga and caribou are among the most vulnerable species. 

• Challenges to maintaining traditional ways of life in Aboriginal Arctic communities 

https://wayback.archive-it.org/3196/20120630000910/http://nrtee-trnee.ca...

As noted in a 2017 report, the Arctic (as is the Antartic) is warming much faster than southern Canada due to global warming, thereby bringing about changes that are and will continue to have major impacts. Some of the impacts will be regional but some will be global, such as the melting of Greenland's glaciers raising sea levels around the world and flooding many global cities. Many of these Arctic changes are forewarnings of what is to come elsewhere. 

Open water in Arctic Ocean affecting weather patterns around world

A polar bear sits on ice in Lancaster Sound. A new report says as Arctic temperatures rise faster than elsewhere, one impact of many is that animals that rely on ice for survival are facing increased stress and disruption.

A new international report shows that Arctic temperatures are rising higher and faster than expected, and the effects are already being felt around the world. "The Arctic's climate is shifting to a new state," warns the report. "This transformation has profound implications for people, resources and ecosystems worldwide."

The Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic assessment was written by more than 90 scientists from around the world who compiled the latest northern research on how climate change is affecting the Arctic ice and ecosystems. It's part of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program of the Arctic Council, which represents eight circumpolar countries. Among the findings in this year's report:

• The Arctic Ocean could be largely free of sea ice in the summer as early as 2030 or even before that.
• Arctic temperatures are rising twice as fast as the temperatures in the rest of the world. In the fall of 2016 mean temperatures were six degrees higher than average.
• Thawing permafrost that holds 50 per cent of the world's carbon is already affecting northern infrastructure and could release significant amounts of methane into the atmosphere.
• Polar bears, walruses and seals that rely on ice for survival are facing increased stress and disruption.
• Changes in the Arctic may be affecting weather as far away as Southeast Asia.

"The Arctic is connected to the rest of the planet," said David Barber, who is a leading expert on Arctic ice at the University of Manitoba and one of the authors of the report. "We are seeing the first and strongest signs of global warming in the Arctic. We knew this was coming, we knew 30 years ago that it was coming, and it is now here," said Barber.  One of the most surprising results of the research is that there is now open water even during the winter in the Arctic Ocean.  "The Atlantic ocean water is penetrating further into the Arctic and it's upwelling towards the base of the sea ice, where it is melting the sea ice from underneath, this is one of the key findings."  Last year saw a record low amount of winter sea ice.

That open water may be affecting weather patterns. Increased heat from the open water is rising into the atmosphere, which in turn is causing the polar vortex, also known as the jet stream, to weaken in strength. ...

The report says the weakened jet stream is also causing extreme weather events like heavy rain in North America and heavy monsoons in Southeast  Asia. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/arctic-climate-warming-ice-report-1.408...

Climate-change-induced drought is now a major problem across Canada.

B.C. is not alone in experiencing droughts and other extreme weather events, all of which are worsening with climate change. Many regions across provinces and territories, which are on the traditional territories of Indigenous peoples, have issued drought warnings. There were 120 forest fires burning in northern Ontario earlier this month, which have now decreased to 26 fires.  These extreme weather patterns seriously threaten clean drinking water sources, watersheds as well as our food security.

Despite drought, forest fires and extreme weather events, most governments continue to promote an economic system that puts unlimited growth above water, our climate and the vital needs of people and the planet.   Governments must take immediate steps to curb climate change including developing a national action plan on water that upholds the human right to water and phases out extractivist projects that abuse water and exacerbate climate change. ...

Drought warnings across Canada year after year are telling us that we can no longer afford to take water for granted.

Forest fires, which start and spread more easily in drought conditions, pose a threat to clean water because ash, Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons or PAHs (a group of chemical compounds that show up after any sort of fire that involves organic matter) and any flame retardant used can pollute local water sources. ...

The negative impact on farmers and food supplies are a common and worrisome thread in many news reports on drought conditions. Low water levels are also putting fish and fish habitat at risk. 

CBC reported that Alberta's constant state of drought could be the province's "new normal" and are impacting farmers and ranchers. Droughts are also affecting crops in Saskatchewan, livestock in Manitoba, growing seasons in Ontario, hay prices and availability in Quebec, potato farmers in P.E.I. and dairy farmers in the New Brunswick.  

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/making-waves/2018/08/what-drought-warnin...

Drought is having a major impact on the cattle industry from Manitoba to Alberta.

Last year's season ended extremely dry and there wasn't enough snow to increase moisture levels. The spring was long, cold and dry, leaving little growth to feed cattle populations. Many parts of Alberta remained dry this summer, so farmers started to buy feed they usually grow and costs skyrocketed. ...

Saskatchewan has reached out to Ottawa requesting the federal government activate its livestock tax deferral now to help producers in affected areas. The deferral allows farmers who sell part of their breeding herd due to drought or flooding to defer a portion of sale proceeds to the following year. ...

"What are the economics here? There's a lot of people that are looking to sell off 40 per cent, 60 per cent or their entire herd. Cattle are coming to market," Rick Toney of the Saskatchewan Cattlemen's Association said. ....

Producers in Manitoba have already started contacting the province about low feed stocks, said Brian Lemon, general manager with the Manitoba Beef Producers. However, they haven't asked for assistance yet. Lemon said prices for any available feed are becoming too high for cattle producers, who can't pass the cost along. And at some point there just won't be any feed available.

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/08/22/news/canadas-cattle-producer...

The Trudeau government has been both misleading and hypocritical about its climate change plan and the Trans Mountain pipeline. After years of attacking Harper's greenhouse emissions (GHG) targets as inadequate while in opposition, Trudeau had to acknowledge in 2016 that the Liberals were adopting them. 

Canada will certainly miss its 2020 and is on a pace to break its 2030 Paris Agreement targets, even after fudging the targets by changing the base year for measurement of emissions from 1990 to 2005. As one of the largest per capita emitters of carbon dioxide in the world, it is not surprising that Canada ranks 51st out of 60 countries on the Climate Change Performance Index. The Liberal government has almost certainly also overestimated the amount of reduction is greenhouse gas emissions that its carbon pricing system will create. (https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2018/09/03/Pipeline-Ruling-Bad-News-Climate-...)

The Trans Mountain pipeline purchase for $4.5 billion was initially estimated to need $7.4 billion more for the extension, a cost estimate that has risen by another $1.9 billion in just two months for a total estimated cost of $13.8 and who knows what additional costs to come, even if it ends up overcoming the Court of Appeal's rebuff. 

One of the reasons the Court of Appeal rebuffed the federal government was an  internal memo, to Trudeau’s natural resources minister, described a negotiation as “paternalistic,” “unrealistic,” and inadequate,” showing once again that the Liberal's were misleading the public in claiming that the consultation with the First Nations process was meaningful and thourough. (https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/09/01/analysis/how-i-unwrapped-kin...)

Sadly, there is also strong evidence that the pipeline is not needed and that Asian market waiting to buy the oil at a high price is a mirage. According to energy scientist David Hughes, the Liberal and Alberta governments' claim that a pipeline to tidewater is needed to provide higher paying markets and windfall revenue, aren't based in reality. Hughes says oil prices internationally and in North America are now nearly identical, meaning Canadian producers most likely will receive lower prices overseas, especially when the higher transportation costs involved in transporting bitumen by pipeline then  by tanker are factored in.  He also found that Kinder Morgan has overestimated oil supply by 43 per cent over the next 20 years. (http://www.iheartradio.ca/cfax-1070/news/damning-report-on-kinder-morgan...)

The claim of $18.5 billion in economic benefits seems to come from a January 2016 report on the pipeline by the Conference Board of Canada, which built on numbers contained in a 2013 report by the same organization. ... The problem is that this number is based on old price forecasts which had the international price of oil climbing to and remaining over $100 a barrel much more quickly than is actually happening. It is also based on Trans Mountain being the only approved pipeline, which it no longer is since the approval of both TransCanada’s Keystone XL and Enbridge’s Line 3. (https://www.parklandinstitute.ca/lets_share_actual_facts_about_the_trans...)

The Liberal government claim that the pipeline will create 15,000 jobs lies in the face of the fact that Kinder Morgan itself predicted it will create 2,500 temporary construction jobs and 50 permanent jobs in BC and 40 more in Alberta.(https://ipolitics.ca/2017/08/30/those-trans-mountain-employment-numbers-...)

The misleading numbers for job creation also left out job losses that could occur because of the expansion of the pipeline:

Jobs lost:

• Unifor and the Alberta Federation of Labour estimate that the lost jobs, the lost economic wealth, and the crowding out of existing jobs in other sectors (e.g. commercial fishing) that would arise from building the proposed pipeline, outweigh its economic benefits (Allan, 2016, p. 31)
• According to CRED, the jobs of about 200,000 people in the Lower Mainland (in industries like real estate, tourism, hospitality, high tech, and film) rely on the health of the natural environment and Vancouver’s greenest city brand. An oil spill caused by pipeline or resulting tanker traffic, which is highly likely to happen, would put the jobs of about 200,000 people at risk.
• A 2012 study on the potential economic impact of a tanker spill on ocean-based industries in British Columbia, conducted by the Fisheries Centre of the University of British Columbia found that a tanker spill could cause job losses of up to 43% among coastal industries.

https://twnsacredtrust.ca/concerns/jobs/

For three years in a row, 2014, 2015, and 2016, the global average temperature record was broken.

2016 was the hottest year on record, setting a new high for the third year in a row, with scientists firmly putting the blame on human activities that drive climate change. 

The final data for 2016 was released on Wednesday by the three key agencies – the UK Met Office and Nasa and Noaa in the US – and showed 16 of the 17 hottest years on record have been this century.

Direct temperature measurements stretch back to 1880, but scientific research indicates the world was last this warm about 115,000 years ago and that the planet has not experienced such high levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for 4million years.

In 2016, global warming delivered scorching temperatures around the world. The resulting extreme weather means the impacts of climate change on people are coming sooner and with more ferocity than expected, according to scientists.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/18/2016-hottest-year-ev...

This map shows Earth’s average global temperature from 2013 to 2017, as compared to a baseline average from 1951 to 1980, according to an analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Yellows, oranges, and reds show regions warmer than the baseline. Credit: NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio.

Earth’s global surface temperatures in 2017 ranked as the second warmest since 1880, according to an analysis by NASA.

Continuing the planet's long-term warming trend, globally averaged temperatures in 2017 were 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.90 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 1951 to 1980 mean, according to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. That is second only to global temperatures in 2016.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2671/long-term-warming-trend-continued-in-...

ETA: Hundreds of thousands joined the Rise for Climate protests around the world. 

In Sydney, Australia, they sailed a ship along the harbour flying banners with their message. In Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, youth groups organised flash mobs to raise awareness. And in Durham,here in the UK, activists locked themselves onto mining machinery in a bid to close a pit for the day.

Hundreds of thousands of climate change protestors are gathering at some 850 events across 90 countries – and seven continents – in what is one of the biggest ever days of global action highlighting the issue. They are marching in cities from Kathmandu to Copenhagen, Lagos to Lisbon, Bogota to Berlin. Support has even come from Antarctica, where the astrobiologist Cyprien Verseux has picturedhimself holding up a banner featuring the day’s official moniker, Rise for Climate. ...

“Climate change is the defining issue of our time, it is a crisis of democracy, justice and human rights,” said May Boeve, executive director of 350.org, the New York-based campaign group behind the day. “The climate movement is made stronger by its sister movements: for human rights, economic justice, democracy, and much more. ...

In the UK, events are being held in places ranging from London to Wigan, Bradford to County Durham.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/rise-for-climate-protest...

In Toronto, carrying signs and singing songs, a group of about 200 marched together to demand swifter action to address climate change. ... The march ended at Queen's Park to send a message to politicians in Ontario. Around Canada, other events were held everywhere from Sherbrooke, Que., to Kelowna, B.C.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/rise-for-climate-march-toronto-1....

Today, there was also a march through the streets of Vancouver. It was part of the Rise for Climate International Day of Action, which led to demonstrations in cities around the world. ...

Vancouver climate activists are still eager to raise awareness about the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion project even after its approval was quashed by the Federal Court of Appeal.

Hundreds gathered in front of the Vancouver Art Gallery late this afternoon to highlight a multitude of marine species that they believe would be jeopardized by the project. The most famous, of course, are southern resident orcas, but several other animals were also displayed on placards held up by demonstrators.

Speakers and many signs condemned the Trudeau government for spending $4.5-billion to buy the Trans Mountain system from Texas-based Kinder Morgan. The feds also plan on completing the $9.3-billion expansion project, despite losing the recent court decision.

https://www.straight.com/news/1133841/hundreds-gather-front-vancouver-ar...

The Rise for Climate protests was spearheaded by what organizers called the largest ever climate march on the US west coast. The march, which snaked through the heart of San Francisco, came ahead of a climate change summit in the city next week that will gather mayors and business leaders from around the world. The San Francisco march, which called for California governor Jerry Brown to end fossil fuel extraction in the state, attracted around 30,000 people, organizers said. ...

A week of protests are planned surrounding the summit in San Francisco, with organizers hoping to draw attention to air pollution and social inequity that has tainted California’s economic growth. “Climate change, economic inequality, the housing crisis, increased criminalization, attacks on immigrant communities – all these challenges are driven by systemic devaluation of the lives of people of color and choosing profit over people and the planet,” said Gladys Limon, executive director of the California Environmental Justice Alliance. We are standing up to life destructive industries, from big oil to natural gas companies, that obstruct progress toward a healthy, sustainable and just society.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/08/rise-for-climate-pro...

Crowds march In San Francisco during the "Rise For Climate" global action on Sep 8, 2018. (Photo: AFP/Amy Osborne)

http://www.vir.com.vn/global-climate-protests-peak-in-san-francisco-6228...