Erin Weir accused of "harassment"

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Do you all understand what is happening here? We have a Conservative party flirting with far-right racist elements. We have a Liberal government that is going ahead with the Kinder Morgan pipeline in BC against all opposition, and is not putting forward its best negotiating foot with the NAFTA renegotiations. Meanwhile, BC went up in flames, we have had record heat from the Rocky Mountains to the east coast which killed a large number of people in Quebec, Manitoba has been under drought conditions for a year, and Lake Winnipeg is at a low level I have never seen. I still see people begging for change on the streets when I go out. The quality of jobs has not improved. First Nations are still without clean drinking water. We are still struggling to integrate the large influx of refugees we've seen fleeing both the Syrian civil war and entering Canada through unconventional means. And yet, what is the NDP in the news for? Not for challenging the 2 big parties or proposing solutions to any of the issues I mentioned, but a civil war that is only getting worse and is not going to go away no matter how the NDP establishment wishes it so. This kind of thing is only distracting the party for focusing on the things that really matter.

It's time to get back to work, let Weir back into Caucus, and let's work together to fix these things.

Do you seriously think the people screaming for Singh's head would stop if he let Weir back into caucus?

Some of them can't even stand the clothes he wears. Some don't like his bringing new members into the party because they believe many of them joined  based more on a common ethnic background than their political philosophy. Some are deeply opposed to his anti-Trans Mountain pipeline policy because they see it hurting the party's chances in their region, despite all of the evidence that global warming is already having disastrous consequences here, such as the damage done in Fort MacMurray in 2016 by wildfires, and in record-breaking 2016 and 2017 wildfire years, as well as around the world. 

Do you think the MSM would praise such an act or call Singh weak and indecisive for changing his mind?

During the leadership campaign the NDP membership tripled from 41,000 to 124,0000, mainly from new members brought into the party by Singh. All parties lose many of their new members after a leadership campaign. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-leadership-members-1.4265642)

In the seven of the eight polls immediately before the selection of Singh as party leader the NDP was polling between 14.5% and 16.0% (September 8th to October 1st, 2017 with one outlier of 20%).  In seven of nine polls from July 20th to August 20th, 2018 the NDP received 17.8% to 20.1% with the two others at 17.3% (July 26th) and 15% (August 12th). In other words, until less than a month ago the NDP had increased its support since Singh was chosen leader and was polling near its 2015 election support of 19.7% despite the two years in which it was adrift waiting for Mulcair to retire. The four polls from August 24 until September have been 16.5%, 18%, 15.8% and 14.9%. An unsurprising drop in view of the ongoing recent coverage of the internal dissent and low funding levels. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_feder...)

So Singh's leadership had increased party support over the last year until very recently. Could he do a better job? Yes. Do new leaders usually have to learn on the job? Yes. Do I believe there is someone else who would unite everyone in the NDP before the next election? No. Could he still do well in the election? Possibly. In three byelections on November 29, 2010, less than six months before Jack Layton led the NDP in the 2011 election where they elected 103 MPs with by far its greatest election support, the NDP lost 21.4% of their previous support and the riding of Winnipeg North, were 30.4% behind the Conservatives in Dauphin-Swan Lake-Marquette and won a measly 1.7% in Vaughn. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/By-elections_to_the_40th_Canadian_Parliament)  The MSM said the NDP and Jack Layton were in deep trouble. What will happen in 2019? I don't know. But in the modern world, where there a lot fewer people with long-term support of a particular party, things can change quickly. 

The following party contributions graph shows that even when the NDP was the official opposition from 2011 to 2015 when people viewed the party as the likely alternative government with 103 elected MPs, the party's funding levels went up and down and spiked in the 2015 election year. Is the NDP having funding problems - yes, but every party except the Conservatives have had drops in their recent contributions. 

Graph of party donations       https://ipolitics.ca/2018/04/30/882142/

One area where I think the NDP is way behind is in communicating to members and the public about issues through social media, which elections in Canada have shown can be done effectively without huge expenditure if done correctly. However, that has been a problem for the NDP for at least a decade. 

jerrym wrote:

During the leadership campaign the NDP membership tripled from 41,000 to 124,0000, mainly from new members brought into the party by Singh. All parties lose many of their new members after a leadership campaign. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-leadership-members-1.4265642)

That 124, 000 would represent how many members the NDP had during the leadership convention. How many members does the NDP have now?

jerrym wrote:

In the seven of the eight polls immediately before the selection of Singh as party leader the NDP was polling between 14.5% and 16.0% (September 8th to October 1st, 2017 with one outlier of 20%).  In seven of nine polls from July 20th to August 20th, 2018 the NDP received 17.8% to 20.1% with the two others at 17.3% (July 26th) and 15% (August 12th). In other words, until less than a month ago the NDP had increased its support since Singh was chosen leader and was polling near its 2015 election support of 19.7% despite the two years in which it was adrift waiting for Mulcair to retire. The four polls from August 24 until September have been 16.5%, 18%, 15.8% and 14.9%. An unsurprising drop in view of the ongoing recent coverage of the internal dissent and low funding levels. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_feder...)

So the best case scenario, no big change overall.

jerrym wrote:

So Singh's leadership had increased party support over the last year until very recently. Could he do a better job? Yes. Do new leaders usually have to learn on the job? Yes. Do I believe there is someone else who would unite everyone in the NDP before the next election? No.

"Someone else" isn't currently leading the NDP. Singh is. And I agree that new leaders will struggle a little bit. Every new leader has things that other people will find concerning. Singh's tenure so far, rather than addressing those concerns, has only served to strengthen and amplify them.

jerrym wrote:

No. Could he still do well in the election? Possibly.

Could Elizabeth May be elected Prime Minister next year? Possibly. Whether that is in the realm of probability is another question.

jerrym wrote:

In three byelections on November 29, 2010, less than six months before Jack Layton led the NDP in the 2011 election where they elected 103 MPs with by far its greatest election support, the NDP lost 21.4% of their previous support and the riding of Winnipeg North, were 30.4% behind the Conservatives in Dauphin-Swan Lake-Marquette and won a measly 1.7% in Vaughn. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/By-elections_to_the_40th_Canadian_Parliament)  The MSM said the NDP and Jack Layton were in deep trouble.

2 out of those 3 ridings were areas where the NDP had no support and could not be expected to win. It's not a surprise that the NDP would win 1% in a rich 905 riding, or that they would lose by over 30% in a rural Manitoba riding. The by-elections were an indicator of things to come in one sense. Not only did the NDP in Manitoba fail to win back Winnipeg North, it also went on to lose Elmwwod-Transcona to the Conservatives.

By the way, Jack took the time to come to Dauphin during that campaign to help out and offer support to NDP members there. Did Jagmeet Singh ever show up in North Battleford when they had their election? Don't give me that crap about North Battleford being a longshot NDP riding. It is no less a longshot than Dauphin was, and Battleford elected NDP MPs much more recently than Dauphin ever did.

jerrym wrote:

I don't know. But in the modern world, where there a lot fewer people with long-term support of a particular party, things can change quickly.

If the comments on babble are any indication, the number of long term NDP supporters is becoming fewer and fewer.

And I'll ask you again: I am one person who helped out on Daniel Blaikie's campaign in 2015. Would you rather Blaikie have fought for that seat with or without my help?

epaulo13 wrote:

i understand what is going on with weir. the injustice of it. i understand that the singh leadership is failing. but can't help knowing/feeling that it is a tempest in a teapot compared to what we are facing from the right.

The right is terrible and getting worse. If given the choice between a Conservative candidate and an NDP candidate, even after everything that has happened with Weir (and various other betrayals by the Party along the way), I would generally support the New Democrat. Given the choice between a New Democrat and a Liberal, though, which is what I am expecting in my riding in the next election? I dunno.

Generally yes, but I am wondering if in this circumstance what the NDP really needs is a good shellacking from the voters to remove the deadwood and wake up the rest of the Party to the need for change. Other parties, like the Greens, can also play the NDP's traditional role in keeping the Liberals honest on many issues although regrettably the Greens are not very pro-union. OTOH I'm not sure whether the current crop of people in charge of the NDP grasp important labor-relations concepts like "just cause" or "due process" for that matter either.

Continued here.