New Leger poll
CAQ 31% (-4)
Lib 30% (+1)
PQ 21% (=)
QS 14% (+3)
Losing 4 points in 1 week, Legault is circling the drain and I think a minority government is very likely.
I agree. But if the numbers continue,that minority government could be lead by the Liberals.
There is a lot of material the Liberals could easily bury the CAQ with. Why they haven't already is a mystery.
Well, saying something as ignorant at "people can become Canadian citizens after three months" must count for something in the annals of idiocy.
Quebec Solidaire has jumped up 6% in Leger polling in less than one month
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Quebec_general_election,_2018
There is a lot of material the Liberals could easily bury the CAQ with. Why they haven't already is a mystery.
With over 2 weeks left in the campaign, why blow your ammunition all in one shot? Why not drag it out bit by bit?
Équiterre accused of breaking election law in Quebec
Équiterre has accused Quebec's elections watchdog of trying to "muzzle environmental groups," and is defying the watchdog's demand to remove an election campaign survey from its website.
Équiterre received a notice Monday from the Directeur général des élections du Québec (DGEQ) demanding that it pull the questionnaire by midday Wednesday or face a fine up to $50,000.
The non-profit, Montreal-based environmental group said Wednesday it will contest the order in court if necessary. Ten other environmental groups who collaborated on the survey are supporting that decision.
The environmental questionnaire in question was published last week. A collective of 11 environmental groups asked four political parties in Quebec for their positions on 23 environmental priorities, from pesticides to agriculture to biodiversity, and compiled the difference responses into one grid.
It was uploaded as a PDF to Équiterre's website and was shared broadly with media by the groups, such as the David Suzuki Foundation, Greenpeace Canada, WWF Canada, Vivre en Ville, Nature Quebec and Velo Quebec....
New Leger poll
CAQ 31% (-4)
Lib 30% (+1)
PQ 21% (=)
QS 14% (+3)
Losing 4 points in 1 week, Legault is circling the drain and I think a minority government is very likely.
If it's a hung assembly...do you think there's any possibility that there'd be a CAQ-PLQ "grand coalition"?
It's a relief that the CROP poll shows the PQ now just slightly ahead of QS. Does anybody think this will FINALLY be the year the Quebec labour movement breaks with the PQ? It's been years since the Pequistes have been anywhere close to being pro-labour, and the CROP poll clearly demonstrates that they have no chance of winning this election, so what possible argument would their still be for any of the unions to stay with them?
If it's a hung assembly...do you think there's any possibility that there'd be a CAQ-PLQ "grand coalition"?
No. Legault is way too power hungry and the PLQ are much more moderate than the CAQ.,
There'd be more of a chance of a PQ-QS coalition even though they wouldnt have the numbers to form a government.
I still think there is going to be a minority government either CAQ or Liberals. But Legault is fucking up big time. Anything can realistically happen especially if the CAQ sinks like the Titanic which seems to be happening.
Minority CAQ propped up by the PLQ (not in a formal coalition, just in support or abstention on every critical vote, like the federal Liberals did with Harper) for close to a full term. That's my guess. But hey, we have 11 days left. Plenty of time for further developments.
so what possible argument would their still be for any of the unions to stay with them?
From a psychology point of view, none would be greater than "you always voted for them before, so if you suddenly stop now you'll need to explain that to yourself, and who wants to go there?"
Its quite telling this new CROP poll. The Gazoo have been pushing the CAQ (as well as CTV Montreal) for a couple years now. It doesnt seem to be working.
https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/quebec-election-liberals-bre...
If this poll is accurate,Quebec will be spared a CAQ government. Personally I dont trust polls. Each poll has different numbers and the real picture is drawn on election night.
A 7 point lead would bury the CAQ.
Which is a good thing, but remember that Couillard claimed that it is possible for a family of one adult and TWO TEENS to get by on $75 for groceries a week. Did Mme (or Dre?) Couillard always do the groceries? Teenagers are bottomless pits; all the parents of teens in my c0-op are stymied by how much they eat.
https://www.ledevoir.com/opinion/chroniques/537335/soixante-quinze-piass... Aurélie Lanctôt - 75 piasses (75 bucks)...
In English about the grocery bill... https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec-election-couillard-says-its-poss...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/couillard-weekly-grocery-budget-...
Which is a good thing, but remember that Couillard claimed that it is possible for a family of one adult and TWO TEENS to get by on $75 for groceries a week. Did Mme (or Dre?) Couillard always do the groceries? Teenagers are bottomless pits; all the parents of teens in my c0-op are stymied by how much they eat.
https://www.ledevoir.com/opinion/chroniques/537335/soixante-quinze-piass... Aurélie Lanctôt - 75 piasses (75 bucks)...
That is ridiculous. I have no kids and $50 is 2-3 days depending on what I buy. Its peanuts. What is she to do with that money? Go to the dollar store and buy 5 packs of ramen for a buck? That sounds really healthy. Lets be clear I'm being sarcastic.
It's terrible but I think the CAQ would give that woman even less to feed her kids.
We're in a shitty situation. The only thing that is a bright sided and I mean slightly bright is QS popularity has increased. I think people have finally realized that they have a lot of good ideas that actually help people and a competent leader (s). Manon Massé is doing great in the debates. Lisée has been surprisingly good too.
Some think there could be a CAQ-PLQ coalition. I wonder if in the next election there will be a QS -PQ coalition.
I only say that because it could be the chance to slap power away from the PLQ and CAQ.
Forget about this election. It's either frick or frack.
In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1274 Québec voters, amongst those decided and leaning, CAQ sees support from a third (32%) of voters, down ten points since August (Aug 24: 42%).
Support for the PLQ is steady at (22%), unchanged since August (Aug 24: 22%).
The PQ has also remained steady (24%) since August (Aug 24: 21%).
QS, however, has seen a jump, now supported by one-fifth (19%) of voters, up 6 points since August (Aug 24: 13%).
So the PLQ is in third place and just a hair above fourth, but is still guaranteed to be the official opposition. It'd sure be nice if the CAQ had any intention of honouring its electoral reform pledge.
The PLQ is in third place? In the race or popularity? Every poll I see is they are neck and neck with CAQ and one poll posted in the Gazoo that the Liberals had a 7 point lead.
So in 48 hours Legault's fall has bounced sky high and I'm presuming the PQ vaulted over the Liberals to take second place?
What did Couillard do to fall that far in 2 days? Anbd what did Lisée do to pull his party from the grave?
That poll either has a epic math error, or it was taken at CAQ headquarters.
Which is a good thing, but remember that Couillard claimed that it is possible for a family of one adult and TWO TEENS to get by on $75 for groceries a week.
Ya, that's only a bit more than ten dollars per day, divided by four people and three meals. So about $.80 per person per meal. And that's just food. Everyone still uses soap and toilet paper and suchlike. I DO believe that many people could eat healthier than they are, for less than they're paying, and I've talked about that, but this math is super wonky.
If it's a hung assembly...do you think there's any possibility that there'd be a CAQ-PLQ "grand coalition"?
No. Legault is way too power hungry and the PLQ are much more moderate than the CAQ.,
There'd be more of a chance of a PQ-QS coalition even though they wouldnt have the numbers to form a government.
I still think there is going to be a minority government either CAQ or Liberals. But Legault is fucking up big time. Anything can realistically happen especially if the CAQ sinks like the Titanic which seems to be happening.
With the likelihood of a CAQ majority government slipping, does that mean the Liberals, PQ, and QS will be able to come together and build the Pink Line that is important to Montreal Mayor Valerie Plante?
If it's a hung assembly...do you think there's any possibility that there'd be a CAQ-PLQ "grand coalition"?
No. Legault is way too power hungry and the PLQ are much more moderate than the CAQ.,
There'd be more of a chance of a PQ-QS coalition even though they wouldnt have the numbers to form a government.
I still think there is going to be a minority government either CAQ or Liberals. But Legault is fucking up big time. Anything can realistically happen especially if the CAQ sinks like the Titanic which seems to be happening.
With the likelihood of a CAQ majority government slipping, does that mean the Liberals, PQ, and QS will be able to come together and build the Pink Line that is important to Montreal Mayor Valerie Plante?
I can see that, The PLQ and QS seem very much in favour of it. The PQ I have no idea,I'd assume they are too.
As for a CAQ majority,I strongly belive that won't happen. I predict a CAQ minority. BUT if they keep slipping and The PLQ continue to make gains there is a real chance of a PLQ minority. Legault is a clown. He lost a lot of credibility when he said it takes 3 months to become a Canadian citizen. That was a major gaffe and his performance in the debates were a disaster. I believe they're not going to get a majority.
That poll either has a epic math error, or it was taken at CAQ headquarters.
It’s Forum.
Lisée is now claiming there is some occult power at the head of QS, the party's nominal chairperson (required by law), who is a pensioner and volunteer who signs required documents and otherwise is on equal footing with all the people in the leadership.
Dependable rightwinger Denise Bombardier is going full-on reds under the bed. Yes, Denise, there are no doubt far-left people in QS, just as there are La Meute far-right racists in the CAQ (and perhaps even in the PQ) and anglo-supremacists in the PLQ.
So what?
CBC poll tracker is more plausible than that ridiculous Forum poll
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/qcvotes/poll-tracker/
There is no way the PLQ slipped to third in a 48 hour period. Someone was daydreaming.
It would be amusing if they actually thought QS could win(the party is likely to make significant gains, but an actual QS popular vote plurality, let alone even a minority government, would require the remaining PQ vote to collapse, and for some reason it has stubbornly refused to collapse), just to see how ludicrous their paranoid responses would get. Do you think we'll see them parking moving vans outside all the banks again?Lisée is now claiming there is some occult power at the head of QS, the party's nominal chairperson (required by law), who is a pensioner and volunteer who signs required documents and otherwise is on equal footing with all the people in the leadership.
Dependable rightwinger Denise Bombardier is going full-on reds under the bed. Yes, Denise, there are no doubt far-left people in QS, just as there are La Meute far-right racists in the CAQ (and perhaps even in the PQ) and anglo-supremacists in the PLQ.
So what?
Poll 2 days ago
https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/quebec-election-liberals-bre...
Poll 1 day ago
https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/quebec-election-another-poll-sho...
That was a Forum poll from yesterday.
CROP 2 days ago
https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/election-2018-crop-poll-puts-liberals-in-lea...
Keep in mind CTV Montreal has a CAQ bias.
PLQ and CAQ remain neck and neck.
Love that pun! :)
Good sign...weird that the PQ STILL holds a slight lead over QS. You'd think the PQ's support would've completely fallen apart by now.
I just got a weird call from some man asking me if I voted Liberal. I said that was private and he said thank you and hung up.
I don't remember getting a call from anyone in the past asking me who I voted for. I wonder who they were affiliated with if it wasn't from the Liberal campaign.
Anyone else get a similar call?
No, I just get calls from QS, reminding me to vote, asking me if I can volunteer, etc. They are less annoying in terms of "begging" than the NDP is.
Ken, it can be very difficult to break longstanding habits. I have old friends, mostly retired trade unionists, who still think the PQ is somehow a progressive party.
No, I just get calls from QS, reminding me to vote, asking me if I can volunteer, etc. They are less annoying in terms of "begging" than the NDP is.
Ken, it can be very difficult to break longstanding habits. I have old friends, mostly retired trade unionists, who still think the PQ is somehow a progressive party.
That makes sense. Thanks for the response. Sorry if I've sounded like a broken record asking this. I wonder if this election will lead to a major rethink among those who identify as left-sovereigntists as to whether continuing to push actively for sovereignty-association is still a viable path. The right-sovereigntists(the Lucian Bouchard types) now have the CAQ-and I think they're mixed in there with the corporate right and some bigoted old-time Creditiste' types, so it's an open question as to whether a CAQ government would center sovereigntism or center xenophobia and austerity instead), but the PQ is putting itself in a situation in which it's sliding away from both any connection to the Left AND an active commitment to making sovereigntism an immediate reality.
I'm still in full support of the right of self-determination for Quebec...but I'm not sure if an active push for sovereignty is going to be on the agenda anytime soon no matter who wins, especially if the combined CAQ-PQ vote is significantly below 50%, as it looks increasingly likely to be.
but I'm not sure if an active push for sovereignty is going to be on the agenda anytime soon no matter who wins
I feel like I've seen you, more than once, tell anyone worried about it that it will simply never happen. That it's a corpse, unburied.
Now your only "not sure"? Are you sure you're not sure that for sure it's done? That is, after all, the reason that everyone shouldn't worry about it and vote for someone other than QS. Is it dead, or just circling the drain, or what?
but I'm not sure if an active push for sovereignty is going to be on the agenda anytime soon no matter who wins
I feel like I've seen you, more than once, tell anyone worried about it that it will simply never happen. That it's a corpse, unburied.
Now your only "not sure"? Are you sure you're not sure that for sure it's done? That is, after all, the reason that everyone shouldn't worry about it and vote for someone other than QS. Is it dead, or just circling the drain, or what?
Why are you belaboring this? What matters is that sovereignty is effectively moot for a very, very long time. It makes no difference whether anyone formally declares it dead or not, or whether anyone formally renounces it or not. There's simply no need to insist that anyone make an official, permanent proclamation on the subject or not. What matters in the forseeable future is creating a progressive model of governance and life in Quebec. If that is allowed to happen, the question of which flag flies over the National Assembly is of no real significance.
In short, chill.
Good sign...weird that the PQ STILL holds a slight lead over QS. You'd think the PQ's support would've completely fallen apart by now.
The PQ has residual support across Quebec. Support for QS is confined to Montreal, and that puts a cap on how high their support can actually go in this election cycle.
You'd think, but that isn't true anymore. They're making a decent showing in Quebec City (not enough to win any ridings, but hardly the distant-fourth-afterthought stereotype) and Gatineau this cycle. Plus, in my recent trips through deeply rural ridings, QS has an impressive sign presence even in places they'll be lucky to crack 5%. They've really put a lot of resources into the regions.
Why are you belaboring this? What matters is that sovereignty is effectively moot for a very, very long time.
Only because I seemed to recall you declaring it dead, at least for the forseeable future (and therefore those worried about it should stop worrying about it because it's just not going to happen).
And then you walked that back to you're "not sure".
I was just asking for clarification. Is it not going to happen, or are you not sure that it will happen?
I'm not asking you, or any other human being, to declare that it's a terrible idea, must never happen, cannot ever happen, or whatever. I'm not asking you or QS or any other party to place their hand over their heart and swear an oath.
But it just kind of looked like maybe, possibly, it suddenly had a chance, by your reckoning.
Is it as surely dead as you used to say to people who worried that it might not be dead? Or are its breaths laboured and heartbeat shallow, but still alive?
You'd think, but that isn't true anymore. They're making a decent showing in Quebec City (not enough to win any ridings, but hardly the distant-fourth-afterthought stereotype) and Gatineau this cycle. Plus, in my recent trips through deeply rural ridings, QS has an impressive sign presence even in places they'll be lucky to crack 5%. They've really put a lot of resources into the regions.
Considering Valerie Plante's victory in Montreal, along with the fact that Projet Montreal and QS seem to have many overlapping policy areas, plus the fact that QS had MNAs elected in Montreal and that is where they would receive the most attention, it made sense to me that their surge in support would be a primarily Montreal phenomenon. It's always interesting to hear other perspectives.
Are there any polls or news stories that give more background on the rise of QS province wide? If you feel like sharing something, I would love to read it. Don't worry about what language it's in, I can read French well enough that I'll be able to understand.
You'd think, but that isn't true anymore. They're making a decent showing in Quebec City (not enough to win any ridings, but hardly the distant-fourth-afterthought stereotype) and Gatineau this cycle. Plus, in my recent trips through deeply rural ridings, QS has an impressive sign presence even in places they'll be lucky to crack 5%. They've really put a lot of resources into the regions.
According to QC125 QS has a chance to win in both Taschereau and Jean Lesage.
As for the whole debate on whether considering sovereignty while voting this election makes sense, well the stated intention and platform of QS if they win is to have a referendum in their first mandate, they're not hiding anything, they're clear and honest and I take them at their word. So it isn't a dead issue as some claim. The onus isn't on federalists to let it go and chill out, we're not the ones proposing it.
Good sign...weird that the PQ STILL holds a slight lead over QS. You'd think the PQ's support would've completely fallen apart by now.
I'm gonna speculate here that if you're the kind of person who votes for the PQ because he wants Quebec to have as much power as it can feasibly attain, caveats such as "...and of course, First Nations within Quebec should get the same thing" are gonna be a deal-breaker.
Not that everyone who rejects QS does so because of First Nations claims specifically, just that, most people who want more autonomy for their particular social unit aren't really interested in consistently applying the logic to other deserving social units.
Why are you belaboring this? What matters is that sovereignty is effectively moot for a very, very long time.Only because I seemed to recall you declaring it dead, at least for the forseeable future (and therefore those worried about it should stop worrying about it because it's just not going to happen).
And then you walked that back to you're "not sure".
I was just asking for clarification. Is it not going to happen, or are you not sure that it will happen?
I'm not asking you, or any other human being, to declare that it's a terrible idea, must never happen, cannot ever happen, or whatever. I'm not asking you or QS or any other party to place their hand over their heart and swear an oath.
But it just kind of looked like maybe, possibly, it suddenly had a chance, by your reckoning.
Is it as surely dead as you used to say to people who worried that it might not be dead? Or are its breaths laboured and heartbeat shallow, but still alive?
To clarify
1) I believe that sovereignty is off the agenda for a long time to come, if it ever comes back. In theory, future events could bring it back at some later date, but far enough a way that it should have no bearing on, for example, the question of whether or not someone vots QS. QS is not going into government this year...at best, it might somehow leapfrog into third place in the popular vote(though likely not third-place in the seat count).
2) At the same time, I still support, as any person of the left should feel obliged to, Quebec's right to self-determination, because if you're on the left, you support the right to self-determination as a first principle. There's no left way to take an all-out "no self-determination" position, in my view. I don't think you and I will see a sovereigntist government in Quebec in our lifetimes, Magoo. There's no way to absolutely guarantee that there would never be another sovereigntist government, but it's simply not anything anybody needs to be uptight about regarding Quebec and Canada. It's likely some middle way will be found on this, something that is close to QS' constitutional assembly proposal of a few years back in which sovereigntists and federalist ideas cold be blended-that a means to preserve Confederation AND allow Quebec to truly find its own way WITHIN Confederation, while providing a model that FN/Metis/Inuit people might use to achieve justice for themselves.
Here's a story about their campaign in Taschereau (Quebec City). I don't have any sources for their campaign presence in farm country; it's just an anecdotal observation on my part.
I think Catherine Dorion is also a big draw, strong on natural charisma. But remember, this part of Québec (City) also saw the birth of many popular, community groups and housing struggles. Much of it is highly gentrified now (and the Old City is beyond gentrified, it is mostly touristed) but there are a lot of housing co-ops and social housing as a result of those struggles. There is also a modest but real ethnic and racial diversity in St-Roch and St-Sauveur.
A lot of the rightwing vote in Québec comes from the suburbs.
Here's Chantal Hebert's take:
Three years ago, millennial voters helped Justin Trudeau’s Liberals vault from a distant third place in the House of Commons to a majority government. Next Monday in Quebec, that same cohort could deal a lethal blow to the once mighty Parti Québécois.
PQ Leader Jean-François Lisée spent the past month trying to restore his party’s status as a contender for power. If all had gone according to his original plan, his party would by now have overtaken the Coalition Avenir Québec and emerged as the most likely to beat premier Philippe Couillard’s Liberals.
Instead the last stretch of the campaign finds the PQ in a battle for survival against Québec Solidaire — a party that only held three seats in the last National Assembly.
With less than a week to go until election day, the left-wing party has overtaken its sovereigntist big brother on the Island of Montreal. Come next Monday, the PQ could be wiped off the map of Quebec’s metropolis. Lisée’s Rosemont seat could be among the casualties. And support for QS is on the rise province-wide.
Quebec Solidaire has the Parti Quebecois on the Ropes (Toronto Star)
Meric cco. J'ai hate de celebrer la victoire de Catherine Dorion comme la prochainne depute de Taschereau!
I think the QS surge may be for real. The Mainstreet poll numbers show them rising fastest in the regions, not in Montreal, and actually in a narrow second place both in Quebec City region and in the regions. Which makes Taschereau a real prospect for a pick-up. (http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2018/09/le-parti-quebecois-et-quebec-solida...). QS is also polling second in the latest local poll in Sherbrooke, a genuine four-way with all parties between 18 and 20%, and a marvellous local candidate (https://www.latribune.ca/actualites/elections-2018/fin-de-course-a-quatr...). Probably a long shot still, but you never know. Out in "farm country" the only campaigning I've seen locally is by QS, which is not evidence of anything other than a real grassoots mobilization, but still surprised me. The latest poll shows QS in first place among those agred 18-34, who also pick Manon Masse as the top choice for PM. She and the party have run a splendid campaign. Loved her on Tout le monde en parle's mini-debate. She does silent face-debating so well - raising eyebrows at Couillard's claims, looking skeptical when Lisee speaks, and unimpressed by "the candidate of petroleum." Then she makes her points, clearly and without BS, there. You never know, they may actually be going somewhere this time, even if it's jsut from distant fourth place to credible fourth place. Populaires indeed.
Lisée, with the enthusiastic support of the mainstream media, has discovered that QS are "Marxist", and hiding it!
Marxist! Can you believe it!?? Marxist!!
Gilles Duceppe was Marxist-Leninist, but that was ok, because... I forget why.
I'm now thinking the desperation of these lowlifes should be enough to help QS form the government. Maybe not this time, but soon.
Lisée, with the enthusiastic support of the mainstream media, has discovered that QS are "Marxist", and hiding it!
Marxist! Can you believe it!?? Marxist!!
Gilles Duceppe was Marxist-Leninist, but that was ok, because... I forget why.
Probably because they assumed that, if sovereignty happened on Duceppe's watch, he'd turn the economy over to Lucian Bouchard or something.
It's like QS is determined to push me away. They are willing to work with CAQ and the PQ but not the Liberals in a minority situation. The best case scenario (realistically) for me would have been a Liberal minority with QS having the balance of power to force more progressive policy. Second best would be a Liberal majority.
My vote is meaningless. QS will win my riding, but their claims to progressiveness are a sham if they follow through and support CAQ. It shows me where QS priorities lie. In that case I hope they lose every seat they have in the next election.
I've calmed down a bit since watching this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kB4QFbKIDt4&t=621s
QS understands marketing. Watch some of it even if you don't understand French. She discusses some great elements in the program but that isn't the primary strength of the interview. The other leaders all stupidly declined interviews. This video has almost 90K views in 2 days. Manon Masse is a quintessential down to earth Quebecois woman. This is a woman most Quebecers would want to work with and party with and have as a relative. She is so relatable she absolutely shines in this video. I can't not understand what she was saying but even if I didn't I would still be saying "yeah put her in charge!". That is the strength of having a populist appeal.
Check out the video, even if you don't understand French. They drink wine and inhale helium. Quebec politics at its finest.
It just infuriates me that they are willing to work with the CAQ and PQ but not the Liberals.
