The US did not prepare for threats to the election to the extent it should have. The presumption was that these threats would only be external which makes no sense at all. There are considerable efforts to distort the election result and the extent to the plans obviously are not fully known. The fact that the right wing may be proud of Kavanaugh and all he stands for is also a problem.
I think we should have learned from 2016 not to predict.
Yes, the likelihood is there but I think certainty is not near into the 80% range.
Will this be a fair election? Probably not.