I wouldn't be surprised if the Conservatives win the day on climate change even if they only represent the 1 in 3 voters who think climate change is not a problem. That's how FPTP works when there are more than two political parties and the vote gets split. During the 2015 election the Conservative vote stayed mostly the same while the other voters fluctuated between the Liberals and NDP.
Yes, they fluctuated and chose Trudeau so Harper did not win another term. They can do the same this election and even if the vote is split Scheer would likely only get a minority which could easily be overthrown by the Liberals and NDP teaming up.
Voters are well aware that we have a FPTP system and vote accordingly.
They also know not to trust the Liberals.
The best hope remains a minority.
I also think that Trudeau does not really have much ideology personally. For this reason a Liberal minority could actually be effective witht he NDP pressing them to do things. Would only take a handful of NDP MPs to achieve this if the Liberals and Conservatives are close to tied.
An NDP win is to beat the difference between the Liberals and the Conservatives.
While Trudeau is not trustworthy, I think he leans a little more to the NDP than the Conservatives generally (thanks to the Conservatives being the bigger threat and to the extreme nature of the Conservatives now. If he could say "they made me do it" he might actually support some progressive things that on his own he would not have the courage to do.
The Liberals are very close to the old Progressive Conservatives who were not far from the Liberals of old. However, the political changes have the new Conservatives further away from the PCs of the 1990s than those PCs were from the NDP.
Also the political reality, that the Liberals know well is that their supporters are closer to the NDP than they are to the Conservatives politically.
Thus, a minority Liberal government today would be most likely to work with the NDP.
This does not mean such a government woudl not require considerable compromise from the NDP. It could possibly look to PR, provide more to lower income Canadians in services, maintain a price on carbon, allow some measures for regulation of carbon release, and even actually deliver on some promises to Indigenous people.
I think the price for the NDP might be some compromises pipelines conditional on Indigenous support along the way.
Very limited but better than either a Liberal majority or any kind of Conservative government.
It would not be an NDP government or much of a partnership. It would be a Liberal government with key critical consessions to the NDP to obtain their lifeline.
If people want to do the strategic vote thing - a situation we are only in becuase of a broken Liberal promise - they should vote NDP in all potential NDP-Conservative, NDP-Liberal races, and in all distant Liberal Conservative races. Liberals should vote Liberal in all races except for close NDP Conservative races. The top 10-20 qualifying close races should be the only target. With this limitation, there would be enough credibility for NDP supporters not to see this as only a Liberal attempt to absorb their vote even in NDP-Liberal contests.