Jagmeet Singh has proven to be a wicked-good campaigner

jerrym wrote:

Following each of the four elections that the Liberals have won since 1997 in which they campaigned on reducing emissions every time, greenhouse gas emissions have risen substantially despite these promises. Voting the same way and expecting a different outcome is the definition of insanity, especially when the Liberals adapt Harper's emissions standards, continue  their fossil fuel industry subsidies, provide exemptions on carbon pricing to the biggest greenhouse gas emiiters, and spend billions on fossil fuel projects such as the Trans Mountain pipeline.

Further to your point jerry, the Conservatives actually presented emission reduction targets in 2015, unlike the Liberals. If climate change was your issue, then an honest ranking of the parties on that issue would have placed the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

I am really tired of political junkies treaing politics as if there is a deep chasm between one political party on the right, 2 or more parties on the left, and that this chasm is so vast and so wide that there is no way a leftie could convince someone on the right to join their team. Let's look at Western Canada as an example. It used to be very strongly NDP. Then 1993 came along, and Reform was able to capitalize on the populist sentiment that the NDP once represented. Now this region is very staunchly Conservative. Furthermore, Conservatives are always trying to appeal to working people and presenting a populist face, while the left just ignores this region. That is a key reason why BC ridings that voted NDP in 2005 voted Liberal this time around in spite of their corruption and that the current NDP-Green coalition is hanging by a weak thread.

I'm a political junkie who loves stats. I always have to check my own memories against the actual results. One needs to look at both the seats and the percentage of the vote to really get an idea of the history of voter swings. During the years that I volunteered in Burnaby-Douglas we saw voters mostly go back and forth between the Liberals and the Conservatives.  For a few elections in a row the most popular corporate party candidate was a Liberal and he out polled the Conservatives but not the NDP. When that individual was no longer running the race looked more like the rest  of the province in those days i.e. a battle between the Cons and NDP. In 2008 about 2/3's of the votes that left the Liberals went to the Cons and the NDP and Greens both gained about 17% each. I think that most voters switch back and forth between the Cons and Libs but there is a minority that switch between the Libs and NDP/Green.

The NDP lost its BC vote by adamantly taking the wrong side of the Constitutional Referendum.  BC voters, like in Quebec, said no way leaving the Centre of the Universe led NDP on the wrong side of history and the majority of NDP voters.

JKR wrote:

It seems to me that for at least the last 10 years opinion polls have clearly shown there are many more Liberal-NDP switchers than Liberal-Conservative switchers. Polls over this period seem to show that very few Conservative supporters are willing to switch to any other party. This might change with the advent of Bernier's new party.

When Conservative voters are treated as this evil unreachable brand of voters by the left, resulting in the left not even trying to talk to them, does that come as a surprise?

Quote:

When has the left not tried to talk to them?

I think the left is happy to talk TO them, but rarely WITH them.

JKR wrote:

When has the left treated Conservative voters as being an evil unreachable brand of voters? When has the left not tried to talk to them? In the last election the NDP even included a pledge to maintain balanced budgeting to attract conservative voters. They also soft pedalled changing Cannabis laws. What should leftist parties add to their platforms to attract conservatives?

Platform schmatform. Nobody believes politicians these days. Party platforms are great to use as garden fertilizer, but that's about it. I'm talking about starting by having a presence in these communities, along the lines of the Lethbridge Declaration that Niki Ashton proposed in her 2012 NDP leadership campaign. Guy Caron also understands the importance of courting rural voters.

Let's compare countries. In Canada, the left and the NDP has had almost no presence in the small-c conservative areas for at least a decade. In the US, Bernie Sanders went to deep red states to talk to people and listen to them about their concerns. Now in Canada, large chunks of the West and Ontario are safe Conservative seats, out of reach for anybody. In the US, the Democrats are becoming more competitive in red states like Arizona, Texas, Georgia, and Florida. So which of these 2 approaches do you think works?

What does FPTP have to do with the fact that the left routinely ignores small and rural communities where the Conservatives tend to dominate?

Under FPTP, it's a waste of time and money to campaign in a riding the Conservatives are going to win by 50 points. Under PR, every vote counts (yes, give or take the details of the system), so there really is a point in the left appealing to small and rural communities as well as major cities.

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:

What should leftist parties add to their platforms to attract conservatives?

No more immigrants.  Reconsider equal marriage.  Support our troops.

I agree, there is a group which does not have a political home currently. This group ends up with the Cons by default. 

A SoCon party with progressive economic agenda has a future in Canadian politics. 

cco wrote:

Under FPTP, it's a waste of time and money to campaign in a riding the Conservatives are going to win by 50 points. Under PR, every vote counts (yes, give or take the details of the system), so there really is a point in the left appealing to small and rural communities as well as major cities.

That is a complete misunderstanding of what I am saying. Political campaigns only happen every few years. I'm talking about what goes on in between the campaigns, on the ground on a daily basis. What are left-supporters in the smaller communities even doing in the mean time? Are they organizing around important issues? Maybe they can raise funds by selling t-shirts about something. Heck, maybe even rent a community hall for a social event that tells other lefties that they are not alone and the non-lefties that they are there. I'm not saying these are the perfect magic bullets, but throwing out some ideas. What is the party infrastructure doing during this time? Are they actively trying to nurture grassroots community support, or just relying on flash and image to get them through each election cycle?

Here is the demographic evidence of the growing importance of the First Nations population and vote in western Canada that over time will increasingly impact election results. 

Across Canada, cities are being reshaped by growing indigenous populations.

In the biggest cities on the prairies, and in smaller northern centres close to First Nations reserves, an indigenous population is growing in size and political influence. Already, changes at the local level are signalling a societal turn.

In the last few years, the concerns of many indigenous people, on issues such as murdered and missing women, the treatment of indigenous people in the justice and child-welfare systems, and the enduring impact of residential schools, have been prominent in national and local debates. ...

Look around Winnipeg's downtown and it's clear the city is in the midst of a demographic shift. In the elevated walkways that offer shelter from the legendary winds, it seems roughly half the people shopping, walking or stopping to chat, are indigenous. In fact, more than 70,000 residents identify as aboriginal. Like many the other cities with a growing indigenous population, Winnipeg has seen more than its share of racially charged conflict, but the signs of an increasingly prominent indigenous community are apparent.

Storefronts in Winnipeg's downtown now bear messages of greeting in indigenous languages, ranging from Cree to Dakota, Michif and Inuktitut, distributed by the local business association. At the University of Winnipeg, students who began their studies this year are now required to take a course on indigenous peoples and culture. A community group is petitioning to rename a street in Ojibwe. The national aboriginal broadcaster, APTN, headquartered on Portage Avenue, plans to expand to the United States. ...

Winnipeg is the largest of the 28 cities across Canada where the indigenous population has reached the symbolic threshold of 10 per cent of the broader community (including those rounded up from 9.5 per cent and higher), according to the 2011 National Household Survey.

Just 10 years earlier, in 2001, there were only 17 communities with indigenous populations of that size. The list will almost certainly grow once the results of the 2016 long-form census are available, and not just because indigenous people living off-reserve were among the groups considered at risk of being undercounted in 2011. First Nations and Inuit people tend to have higher fertility rates than the rest of the population: In 2006, it was 2.7 children per woman for Inuit women and 2.4 for First Nations women, compared to 1.8 for Métis women, and 1.6 for the population overall.

The city with the highest proportion of indigenous people in Canada is Prince Albert, Sask., a community of roughly 35,000 located 140 kilometres north of Saskatoon. It's considered a hub for many Northern communities, including 12 nearby First Nations reserves in the Prince Albert Grand Council. Over the decade, the city's indigenous population grew by 37 per cent, far faster than growth in the city overall. ...

NTERACTIVE BY MURAT YUKSELIR, RESEARCH BY RICK CASH / THE GLOBE AND MAIL » SOURCES: STATISTICS CANADA; MAPZEN; OPENSTREETMAP CONTRIBUTORS; WHO’S ON FIRST

Over the last few years, a number of cities have ushered in such changes. Many places, including Winnipeg and Saskatoon, have declared a "year of reconciliation," responding to the Truth and Reconciliation Commission Report on the historical legacy of the residential schools system. 

In Prince Rupert, B.C., the city with the second-highest proportion of indigenous people at more than 38 per cent, the school system last year made Sm'algyax language classes mandatory for all children through Grade 4.

In Regina, where the indigenous population makes up one in 10 people in the city, they now fly the Treaty Four flag in front of City Hall. ...

From 2001 to 2011, more than 100 communities of 10,000 people or more saw their indigenous population more than double. In part that's explained by the fact that the indigenous population is relatively young and many move to urban centres for further education or work (interestingly StatsCan found they're less likely than other groups to head to the big three of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver), but that's not the whole story.

In places like Corner Brook, for example, where the indigenous population grew more than 360 per cent, the change goes far beyond what migration and natural increase can explain. Between 2006 and 2011 the aboriginal identity population in Canada grew four times faster than the non-aboriginal population. This is partly explained by what's known as "ethnic mobility," the embrace of a previously unacknowledged indigenous identity. ...

Canada's cities are changing in ways that reflect not only its immigration policy, which has an outsize impact on its three biggest cities, but also the increasing prominence in many communities of its original peoples. In the years to come, as the indigenous population is projected to grow by as much as one million people by 2036, the weight of numbers will bring further change as governments, businesses and other institutions adapt.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/growing-indigenous-population-resha...

NorthReport wrote:

NDP now at 20% in the latest poll Not too shabby!

Minority government here we come!

Too bad Trudeau renegaded on PR and bot a pipeline 

A Liberal lead of 11.9% may say a lot of things, but "minority government" is not one of them.

JKR wrote:

If Trudeau had established PR

There seems to be an enduring fallacy that Trudeau had promised PR. In fact his promise was simply to end FPTP, and it was clear that his preference was ranked balloting. Once the Liberals gained a majority the NDP (and Greens) lost any leverage they might have had in getting PR under a minority government. It would have been ranked balloting or nothing. Not to say Trudeau should escape criticism but it should stick to the facts.

..fyi. i've been on niki ashton's email list ever since i supported her in the leadership race. she has remained quite active on a movement level. from the latest email.

quote:

In a couple of minutes, I’m going to announce that I’ll be speaking at an event organized by the Sanders Institute and moving forward, will be collaborating with them. I’ll be off to Vermont from November 29th to December 1st to discuss with Bernie Sanders, Yanis Varoufakis and others what sort of progressive movement we need to organize behind for social, environmental and economic justice.

While I’m there, I’ll be posting a lot of updates. If you want to follow along, be sure to keep an eye on your emails. Please share this page to sign up for my emails with anyone you think might be interested.

In Solidarity, 
Niki Ashton

jerrym wrote:

Here is the demographic evidence of the growing importance of the First Nations population and vote in western Canada that over time will increasingly impact election results.

Jerry, First Nations people participated in the 2015 election in large numbers, but outside of northern Saskatchewan it had no discernable impact on election results. The First Nations popluation in Winnipeg is concentrated in 2 constituencies where the Conservatives are never in serious contention. The seats in Regina and Saskatoon that flipped from the Conservatives to the NDP did so almost completely because of the redrawing of riding boundaries. It's near certain that those seats would have been NDP under current boundaries if they had been in place from 2004-2011. Elsewhere in the Prairies, that just means that areas like Brandon, Dauphin, Melfort, Prince Albert, and Portage la Prairie, instead of going Conservative with 65% of the vote, maybe they go Conservative with just under 50%. The other problem is that if you rely on demographics without addressing economic concerns, that just creates an ugly racist backlash that doesn't serve anyone. That's why the Democrats in the House are suddenly interested in looking at voter supression even though it has been happening for a long time, because they are counting on changing demographics to propel them into office.

I'll give a couple of examples of what I was mentioning upthread. The first is that a couple of people I know who ran as NDP candidates entered a float in a small town parade with the NDP banner. Of course that one intervention didn't change voting patterns at all, however that is an example of out-of-the-box thinking that is needed in these areas. I can also point to the example of Michelle McHale near Steinbach, in the heart of Manitoba's Bible Belt. What is her claim to fame? As a same-sex parent, she took on the local school division over the issue of LGBQT rights and also organized what is now an annual gay pride parade. Being the bible Belt, it goes without saying that conservative support is very high while NDP support is next to non-existent. But there she is, organizing in her community. I hope she runs for the NDP in a future election, and I hope that allows the NDP to build up a base of support that can become competitive in that area.

Some strange quotes from Singh's new Chief of Staff in this article, including:

"He is going to become Jagmeet the candidate," 

"We are doing all the things that you do to get ready for a campaign so I am very confident." 

The article also notes that - in relation to veteran NDP MP's opting not to run in the next election - "B.C. MPs Nathan Cullen and Murray Rankin are also mulling their futures during the holiday break."

I suspect Cullen's mulling-of-his-future is whether or not he will step in as a leadership candidate in the (seemingly likely) event Singh doesn't win Burnaby and is forced to step down as leader.

Jagmeet Singh Heads Into Byelection With New Chief Of Staff

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/12/24/jagmeet-singh-byelection-chief-...

Mighty Middle wrote:

He caused a few noses out of joint with CTV, as he declined to give a year-end interview with CTV Question Period - Despite both Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer agreeing to an interview.

Reeks of arrogance to refuse interviews with major media outlets. Also reminds me of Mulcair's choice to not take questions from the media when he launched the election campaign, which was a major mistake. 

Here's a largely positive story about Singh, but I think the doom & gloom and housing crisis messages he's zeroed in on are going to flop with the electorate at large, and I also think it's disgusting how he cites several valid cases of job losses or pay cuts but ignores the far-more-massive job losses in Alberta, presumably because he doesn't give a damn what happens to people in Alberta. Or Saskatchewan. Or...?

Jagmeet Singh and the NDP look to change the narrative in 2019

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2018/12/25/jagmeet-singh-and-th...

Mighty Middle wrote:

R.E.Wood wrote:

 I also think it's disgusting how he cites several valid cases of job losses or pay cuts but ignores the far-more-massive job losses in Alberta, presumably because he doesn't give a damn what happens to people in Alberta. Or Saskatchewan. Or...?

He did give an interview on CBC Power and Politics and he kept getting pressed on what to do with the oil in the ground. Jagmeet kept talking about clean energy and moving to a cleaner environment. But as it was pointed out, that could take years to develop. So what about the here and now, what to do with the oil in the ground. And Jagmeet kept dodging the question, refusing to answer. In addition refusing to answer if he would give Rachel Notley any money if he were PM

Watch at link 7:00 into video https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1403472963947

Thanks for this. He's either evasive or he's speaking in vague platitudes -- either way, he's infuriating. I ranked him last on my ballot for the leadership, and I still feel that way.

R.E.Wood wrote:

Who will replace Jagmeet Singh as leader of the federal NDP?

At this rate it looks like a Niki Ashton will be acclaimed.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

You want to know what the real problem with Alberta's economy is? It's dependent on a resource economy, and right now they are having difficulty moving said resources to markets. Not only that, but there is termendous opposition to building pipelines that would move oil to market. They need to build a new economy, economy built on other things that are more stable. Where has the federal government been on this file? Who has been calling out the federal government for their lack of action?

Yes, you're absolutely right - the economy in Alberta needs massive diversification. To do that takes two things: Time and Money. It can't be done overnight. The NDP has been making efforts in that direction, but it would take multiple government mandates and federal assistance to really make it happen.

Edit to keep this on-topic: Instead of ignoring parts of the country that Singh doesn't seem to like, or doesn't think are worth bothering trying to campaign in, he should come up with some solid socialist policies that could drive new industries to grow, to gradually replace the oil industry. Give federal tax breaks to green industry growth in oil-producing regions, or to tech industry start-ups, or whatever other industry is deemed a priority... I recall Audrey McLaughlin had ideas back during her term as leader (probably written about in her book) about targeted industry growth in different regions of the country, in order to help ALL of the country. 

Respect First Nation sovereignty to avoid courts and gain predictability says NDP leader

Jagmeet Singh has been leader of the federal NDP party for just over a year and during that time he has seen how First Nations use courts to stop the federal government from trampling over their rights, such as the expansion of the Trans Mountain bitumen pipeline.

Several First Nations believed they weren’t properly consulted on the proposed expansion from Edmonton, Alta. to Burnaby, B.C. and went to court to force the Trudeau government to start over again.

Singh sat down with Nation to Nation to discuss a wide-range of subjects related to Indigenous people and believes there’s a way to achieve a level of predictability.

“We can’t have a Canada that calls itself progressive without ensuring that the nations in Canada, the nations that make up the fabric of the first people of land are not treated as nations and don’t’ have the treaty rights, the land rights, the recognition and dignity that they rightfully deserve,” he said.

“The fundamental principle would be that every piece of legislation should be informed by the free, prior and informed consent principle.”

He said Canada needs to treat First Nations like it would any other country in the world it wants to do business with.

“That’s how we need to look at any agreement that we make with First Nations. They are sovereign nations and should ensure, in a legislative manner, a protection of their sovereign rights,” said Singh.

quote:

“The thing that I was able to appreciate the most, as a leader, is Indigenous communities have the solutions,” he said. “There’s just a lack of listening to those solutions and implementing those solutions. I think more than ever we need to listen to the folks who are on the ground.”

Aristotleded24 wrote:

R.E.Wood wrote:

Who will replace Jagmeet Singh as leader of the federal NDP?

At this rate it looks like a Niki Ashton will be acclaimed.

If Singh wins the by-election, and that is no sure thing, the only chance there will be for the NDP to make any sort of a respectable showing will be for him to listen to people like Niki, to the social movements, to the activists.  Obviously no NDP leader can ever do everything those voices call for, but it is crucial to connect to them.  They are ordinary people, just like the folks in the Tim Horton's-sometimes, they ARE the people in the Tim Horton's-and the economic justice agenda they fight for benefits the Tim Horton's demographic as much as, if not more than, anybody else.

Jagmeet Singh is fighting for his political life

CBC Radio feature on Singh by Hannah Thibedeau:

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/jagmeet-singh-is-fighting-for-his-political-life-1.4965569

Aristotleded24 wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh stops in Barrie

Singh outlines several policies during campaign stop in south-end Barrie

https://www.orilliamatters.com/canadavotes/federal-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh-stops-in-barrie-1700834

In Barrie, where even in 2011 the NDP came nowhere close to winning. Meanwhile, just in Winnipeg, we have 2 Liberal seats in play and an NDP seat in danger of falling. What was so special about this announcement that it had to be done in Barrie? Is the opiod crisis top of mind in Barrie? Is Barrie the only city in the country that has dentists? The NDP has limited resources. This announcement could have been done in St. Johns, Halifax, Rimouski, Montreal, Val'd'Or, Hamilton, London, Thunder Bay, Sault Ste. Marie, Winnipeg, Regina, Saskatoon, Edmonton, Cranbrook, Penticton or Victoria. But wasting precious time and energy in, of all places, Barrie? This is beyond maddening!

WTF DO you really believe that it makes a difference which city a platform is roled out in. The press gallery is following it and its not like the people in St. Johns, Halifax, Rimouski, Montreal, Val'd'Or, Hamilton, London, Thunder Bay, Sault Ste. Marie, Winnipeg, Regina, Saskatoon, Edmonton, Cranbrook, Penticton or Victoria won't hear about it.

You are beginning to sound like a Liberal operative intent on dissing anything you can find wrong about the campaign. This thread is about the leader and he has been doing a stellar job since the campaign began but not according to you.