2018 polls 2

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gadar

josh wrote:

In Beauce, recently nominated candidate Richard Lehoux of the Conservatives has 37.9% support, while Bernier has 34.7% support among decided and leaning voters.

“Bernier narrows the gap when we ask Beauce residents which candidates they would vote for,” continued Maggi. “But there is no mistake that Bernier would be in trouble if the election were held today.

Finally, 35.9% of decided and leaning voters in Burnaby South said that they would vote Liberal in the upcoming by-election, while 29.3% said that they would vote Conservative. 27.2% said that they would vote NDP.

“Given these numbers, it is surprising to see the NDP clamour for a by-election”, concluded Maggi.

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/nanaimo-by-election-a-dead-heat-singh-and-bernier-in-trouble-in-their-ridings/

From reading different opinions around here, it seems like Liberals want Singh to stay on as leader until the General Election. If this poll reflects the ground reality then Liberals are stuck. They call the byelection and win and Singh may quit or be forced out. Or they are not calling the byelection that Singh may lose to the Cons which is probably the worst result for the Liberals. Cons can tout a win and Liberals finish third and Singh is replaced.

I believe Liberals want Singh to win and their internal polling is showing Singh losing to the Cons, thats why they have not called the by election.

Too many variables and unknowns.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

If there is no significant change in the polling trend by the end of January, Singh should do the decent thing and stand down.  It's getting harder and harder to imagine anything positive at all happening in the 2019 election if he is still leading the party in the election if there's been no improvement in the polling at all between now and then.   Nothing he's done has worked, the voters are no in any sense impressed by Singh as leader, he has offered no message, he isn't even making himself available to the public in any meaningful sense.  It's hard to imagine even re-electing the current caucus.  An election where the NDP finished third in B.C., made next to no showing in the Prairies or Ontario, was wiped out in Quebec and B.C.-how would it even be possible to rebuild from that?  How could anyone of any caliber even be persuaded to stand for the party leadership if there were only 14 MPs or so to lead?  What would be the point of taking over as leader in a situation which could only be futile?  It's really getting close to the moment when the party has to decide what it needs to do even to survive.

WWWTT

Lots of doom and gloom in this thread!

I remember writing some posts that went along the lines of wait until after marijuana is legal because the conservatives and NDP know very well that the corporate media will be using legalization to give Justin a huge pardon. 

Also the free trade deal has taken the wind right of the sails of the conservatives. 

So there’s probably a little longer lag time after Bernier left the conservatives. And probably the NDP need to account the conservatives split in making strategies. 

If anything, look for an early election call. 

Now usually I would say it’s early and there’s lots of time to turn things around, but there’s two things in Canadian politics that you can always take to the bank, the corporate media brainwashing people and gullible materialistic canadian voters attracted to the corporate media like moths to a light. And in huge numbers!

WWWTT

Lots of doom and gloom in this thread!

I remember writing some posts that went along the lines of wait until after marijuana is legal because the conservatives and NDP know very well that the corporate media will be using legalization to give Justin a huge pardon. 

Also the free trade deal has taken the wind right of the sails of the conservatives. 

So there’s probably a little longer lag time after Bernier left the conservatives. And probably the NDP need to account the conservatives split in making strategies. 

If anything, look for an early election call. 

Now usually I would say it’s early and there’s lots of time to turn things around, but there’s two things in Canadian politics that you can always take to the bank, the corporate media brainwashing people and gullible materialistic canadian voters attracted to the corporate media like moths to a light. And in huge numbers!

Mighty Middle

In reponse to the third place poll in Burnaby South - Jagmeet Singh puts on a brave face and says he plans to

"Keep on Talking"

More cross-country tours, Singh told reporters Monday, will be key to lift the party's profile and appeal in the year before the next election. He pledged to "keep on raising" concerns about housing, climate change, and to "talk to Canadians across the country."

Evading questions about his leadership, he explained it's his job, and that of his federal caucus, to both raise Canadians' concerns in Ottawa and to propose "concrete" solutions.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/11/19/jagmeet-singh-polls_a_23594137/

JKR

R.E.Wood wrote:

Interesting in that the Conservatives are getting very worried about the NDP collapse (and I hadn't heard about the poll with the 10% result for the NDP until now):

The Tory nightmare now is the fall of the NDP.

"That's where I'm actually worried, frankly — from a strategic perspective, that's what I'm watching," said Alexandre Meterissian, a conservative strategist with Montreal firm Hatley Strategy Advisors. "The collapse of the NDP is a big problem for the party."

Meterissian in particular is concerned about a Mainstreet Research Poll published Nov. 14 that had the Liberals with a comfortable lead and the NDP down at 10 per cent, barely ahead of the Green Party. That was an unusually bad poll for the New Democrats but Meterissian said there is a downward trend for the party and leader Jagmeet Singh, who is struggling with caucus discontent and communications problems.

Meterissian said the Conservatives need to figure out how to attract NDP voters in Quebec and northern Ontario, because otherwise those votes will all go to the Liberals.

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2018/11/19/struggling-ndp-could-be-the...

FPTP does create perverse incentives like Conservatives rooting for the NDP to split the left vote even though they are most opposed to the NDP ideologically and NDP'ers and Liberals rooting for Maxine Bernier's new party to split the right vote even though they are very opposed to Bernier's agenda.

It's insane using FPTP for multi-party elections.

gadar

WWWTT wrote:

Lots of doom and gloom in this thread!

I remember writing some posts that went along the lines of wait until after marijuana is legal because the conservatives and NDP know very well that the corporate media will be using legalization to give Justin a huge pardon. 

Also the free trade deal has taken the wind right of the sails of the conservatives. 

So there’s probably a little longer lag time after Bernier left the conservatives. And probably the NDP need to account the conservatives split in making strategies. 

If anything, look for an early election call. 

Now usually I would say it’s early and there’s lots of time to turn things around, but there’s two things in Canadian politics that you can always take to the bank, the corporate media brainwashing people and gullible materialistic canadian voters attracted to the corporate media like moths to a light. And in huge numbers!

Yup, as always the media is going to endorse the Cons again.

Pondering

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Alternately, I would be happy to see a new party called the Sustainability Party to come from a formal merger between the NDP and Greens based on the understanding that real sustainability must be both environmental and social. Both types of sustainability rely on the other.

In the present context, if either the Greens or the NDP falter and the other is successful, you would not need a formal merger to get an effective merger, although a former merger would speed up the process.

I believe such a party could win and more importantly make the changes we need.

Alternatley this might be the darkest days of the Singh leadership and he could perform better than expected in the next election. The difference between the two scenarios may be extremely narrow and be decided by very little.

Can't argue with that but like you I know how dramatically things can change during an election period but I will say one more thing. Trudeau is in his first term so will automatically have a huge advantage. Until people are disillusioned by the Liberals there is virtually no NDP leader that could make a dent. Almost everyone who considers voting Liberal will vote Liberal for 2019 because Trudeau has done at least as good a job as Harper and he is contrasted to Trump.

Concerning other comments in the thread there seems to be a lot of faith in the mainstream media.

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

 Almost everyone who considers voting Liberal will vote Liberal for 2019 because Trudeau has done at least as good a job as Harper and he is contrasted to Trump.

I cannot agree, even if the final result may look like that was the case.

I think there are a large number of people who came in for sunnny ways and a new era turned off by the compromises and broken promises.

If I were to guess I think that the Liberals will pick up a few points from the NDP (unfortunately), a few points from the Conservatives -- this over some of the more positive things they did, the assumption that someone who has done the job is more immune to the argument that he "is" not ready, contrast with Trump, damage the Conservatives in power provincially may do, ineptness of the Conservative leader and relief that some deal cam out of NAFTA (assuming that passes). This will offset first time voters who may return to not voting, people who voted on idealism that Trudeau looking so nice would actually be different and keep promises, ands some losses related to environmental and Indigenous policies.

In the end his totals may look similar, but they are not the same voters. This is important becuase it will be different things that keep or repel the voters of 2019 in 2023. already gone will be those enthused by principle and idealism and in their place will be those with a more practical eye. This means another party could pick up the idealists in 2023 or they may not vote and the Liberals test in 2023 will be likely complicated by the fact that some hard times in the economy is expected before then and how Canada weathers that will almost certainly decide that election.

The Liberal voters of 2019 are likely to be less naive and likely to be attracted to more bread and butter issues. Trudeau does not have Harper to run against but instead a management record to defend. In some ways his re-election will look more like Harper's second that his first which looked a lot like Harper's first (punishment of party in power and promises that really did not add up).

Trudeau could get the exact number he got in his first election or even do better (as I think he will), however, they will not be the same voters voting for the same reasons.

The 2023 election is when backlash is more likely to come on Trudeau. We can hope that the NDP is ready for that one otherwise it will be some version of right wing government -- likely inspired by the "populist" types that would really screw up the Country in 2023-2027.

As for the relative strength of the NDP and Conservative fortunes universal rules do not apply: when the Liberals are popular a low NDP vote is bad for the Conservatives as it makes it harder for them to win marginal ridings. When the Liberals are less popular, a place for their lost vote to go other than the Conservatives is essential and it is the Liberals needing the marginal seats as much as the Conservatives. A weak NDP in 2019 could hurt the Conservatives as much as a strong NDP in 2023.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Pondering wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Alternately, I would be happy to see a new party called the Sustainability Party to come from a formal merger between the NDP and Greens based on the understanding that real sustainability must be both environmental and social. Both types of sustainability rely on the other.

In the present context, if either the Greens or the NDP falter and the other is successful, you would not need a formal merger to get an effective merger, although a former merger would speed up the process.

I believe such a party could win and more importantly make the changes we need.

Alternatley this might be the darkest days of the Singh leadership and he could perform better than expected in the next election. The difference between the two scenarios may be extremely narrow and be decided by very little.

Can't argue with that but like you I know how dramatically things can change during an election period but I will say one more thing. Trudeau is in his first term so will automatically have a huge advantage. Until people are disillusioned by the Liberals there is virtually no NDP leader that could make a dent. Almost everyone who considers voting Liberal will vote Liberal for 2019 because Trudeau has done at least as good a job as Harper and he is contrasted to Trump.

Didn't work that way for his dad in '72.  The Liberal vote share dropped seven percentage points from '68, all opposition parties gained seats, the NDP ended up with the balance of power and it's best showing in the seat count ever, and a swing of two ridings from the Liberals to the PC's would have knocked PET entirely out of office.  And there was a massive contrast between PET and Nixon, IIRC.

Sean in Ottawa

Ken Burch wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Alternately, I would be happy to see a new party called the Sustainability Party to come from a formal merger between the NDP and Greens based on the understanding that real sustainability must be both environmental and social. Both types of sustainability rely on the other.

In the present context, if either the Greens or the NDP falter and the other is successful, you would not need a formal merger to get an effective merger, although a former merger would speed up the process.

I believe such a party could win and more importantly make the changes we need.

Alternatley this might be the darkest days of the Singh leadership and he could perform better than expected in the next election. The difference between the two scenarios may be extremely narrow and be decided by very little.

Can't argue with that but like you I know how dramatically things can change during an election period but I will say one more thing. Trudeau is in his first term so will automatically have a huge advantage. Until people are disillusioned by the Liberals there is virtually no NDP leader that could make a dent. Almost everyone who considers voting Liberal will vote Liberal for 2019 because Trudeau has done at least as good a job as Harper and he is contrasted to Trump.

Didn't work that way for his dad in '72.  The Liberal vote share dropped seven percentage points from '68, all opposition parties gained seats, the NDP ended up with the balance of power and it's best showing in the seat count ever, and a swing of two ridings from the Liberals to the PC's would have knocked PET entirely out of office.  And there was a massive contrast between PET and Nixon, IIRC.

Problem with comparisons is that there is no control group to manage the differences.

Trudeau elder went into the election with a campaign of the land is strong -- it wasn't as the economy steadily worsened; bilingualism was controversial ans so was response to unemployment. It was also the election that saw the wage and price controls proposed by the Conservatives, opposed by the Liberals and adopted by the Liberals afterwards as the situation deteriorated beyond the worst expectations.

As for the NDP, in shades of what the Liberals campaigned on in 2015, the NDP campaigned on taxing higher income earners and reducing the burden on lower income earners AS WELL as taxing corporations more while opposing "corporate welfare."

I don't think the economy will be so bad in 2019 as to have the kind of 1972 debate. Interestingly, such a dynamic could have been more possible if the election were in 2020 or 2021 when things are expected to get worse.

brookmere

Didn't work that way for his dad in '72.

There wasn't a lot of difference between Liberals and Conservatives in those days. The country had yet to see an ideological Conservative government at either the federal or provincial level. So you can't compare the voters' choices then to today.

bekayne

Ken Burch wrote:

And there was a massive contrast between PET and Nixon, IIRC.

Pretty big contrast between Stanfield and Nixon as well.

bekayne

brookmere wrote:

Didn't work that way for his dad in '72.

There wasn't a lot of difference between Liberals and Conservatives in those days. The country had yet to see an ideological Conservative government at either the federal or provincial level. So you can't compare the voters' choices then to today.

Back then: Bill Davis. Today: Doug Ford.

Sean in Ottawa

bekayne wrote:

brookmere wrote:

Didn't work that way for his dad in '72.

There wasn't a lot of difference between Liberals and Conservatives in those days. The country had yet to see an ideological Conservative government at either the federal or provincial level. So you can't compare the voters' choices then to today.

Back then: Bill Davis. Today: Doug Ford.

And there is no comparison between the two. Davis was even then not particularly ideological. The Conservatives since then have move to a harder right. Davis was very establishment, for better or worse, and very polite in how he did things. He was still Conservative but not the kind that is in control today.

R.E.Wood

Eric Grenier crunches a lot of data in this article that is currently #2 most-read on the CBC website:

The NDP is in trouble — and that's bad news for the Conservatives

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservatives-ndp-1.4912981

 

Aristotleded24

R.E.Wood wrote:
Eric Grenier crunches a lot of data in this article that is currently #2 most-read on the CBC website:

The NDP is in trouble — and that's bad news for the Conservatives

">https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservatives-ndp-1.4912981[/qu...

Ah yes, the CBC. That great broadcaster, so on the pulse of what Canadians everywhere are thinking. If something is true in Toronto, then it is reflective of what is happening in other parts of the country. I know beause the CBC told me so!

It's far more complicated than that. One reason that the Conservatives don't have to fear a complete collapse in their seat count is the weak level of NDP support between Kenora and the Rocky Mountains. A moderate NDP surge out here defeats many Conservative MPs because of historical voting patterns.

I wish the spokespeople for the Toronto Elite Media would learn a little geography, history, and politics from outside the GTA once in a while.

bekayne

Aristotleded24 wrote:

R.E.Wood wrote:
Eric Grenier crunches a lot of data in this article that is currently #2 most-read on the CBC website:

The NDP is in trouble — and that's bad news for the Conservatives

">https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservatives-ndp-1.4912981[/qu...

Ah yes, the CBC. That great broadcaster, so on the pulse of what Canadians everywhere are thinking. If something is true in Toronto, then it is reflective of what is happening in other parts of the country. I know beause the CBC told me so!

It's far more complicated than that. One reason that the Conservatives don't have to fear a complete collapse in their seat count is the weak level of NDP support between Kenora and the Rocky Mountains. A moderate NDP surge out here defeats many Conservative MPs because of historical voting patterns.

I wish the spokespeople for the Toronto Elite Media would learn a little geography, history, and politics from outside the GTA once in a while.

So how many NDP-Conservative swing ridings are there "between Kenora and the Rocky Mountains"? Five? Six?

R.E.Wood

The latest Nanos... all the numbers look grim for the NDP.

Liberals 39.6  

Conservatives 31.5

NDP 14.5 percent

BQ 2.4

Greens 6.9

People’s Party of Canada (PPC) 1.1 

Preferred Prime Minister – Trudeau as the preferred choice as PM at 38.2 per cent of Canadians followed by Scheer (21.9%), Singh (5.8%), May (5.7%) and Bernier (2.3%)

In addition, the NDP's accessible voter pool is down to 34.3%, almost on par with the Greens at 31.4, and well back from the Liberals at 49.8 and Cons at 46.1.

And only 28% of people think Singh has "the qualities of a good leader", which puts him several points below May (31.3), and way behind Trudeau (55.7%) and Scheer (40%). 

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2018/11/27/liberals-40-conservatives-3...

josh

New data from Léger/Canadian Press (Nov. 16-20): 39% LIB ( unchanged since May 7), 33% CON (-3), 14% NDP (-1), 5% GRN (-1), 4% PPC (+4), 4% BQ (+2), 1% OTH (-1)

Pondering

Considering that May has  been around for years longer than Singh their numbers are not comparable. Singh is an unknown to most voters. I'm surprised he does this well at this time.

brookmere

Pondering wrote:
Considering that May has  been around for years longer than Singh their numbers are not comparable.

May has been around for years and has been unable to expand the GP's seat count beyond one. I would expect any NDP leader to rate higher on leadership than May by default. I don't know if the question simply named the leader or named the leader and party, but either way it doesn't look good on Singh considering he's had the job for over a year.

Aristotleded24

bekayne wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

R.E.Wood wrote:
Eric Grenier crunches a lot of data in this article that is currently #2 most-read on the CBC website:

The NDP is in trouble — and that's bad news for the Conservatives

">https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservatives-ndp-1.4912981[/qu...

Ah yes, the CBC. That great broadcaster, so on the pulse of what Canadians everywhere are thinking. If something is true in Toronto, then it is reflective of what is happening in other parts of the country. I know beause the CBC told me so!

It's far more complicated than that. One reason that the Conservatives don't have to fear a complete collapse in their seat count is the weak level of NDP support between Kenora and the Rocky Mountains. A moderate NDP surge out here defeats many Conservative MPs because of historical voting patterns.

I wish the spokespeople for the Toronto Elite Media would learn a little geography, history, and politics from outside the GTA once in a while.

So how many NDP-Conservative swing ridings are there "between Kenora and the Rocky Mountains"? Five? Six?

Selkirk, Dauphin, Yorktion, Melville, Melfort, Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, North Battleford, Kamlooks, and Prince George have all elected NDP MPs within my lifetime.

The reason the NDP has trouble out west has nothing to do with viability and everything to do with the fact that they simply gave up on this region after 1993. Let's look at how badly the NDP got wiped out in Toronto in 2015. If the NDP were to give up on Toronto like they did out West, then in a decade or 2 you would see former NDP ridings in Toronto just as far out of reach for the federal party as many Prairie ridings are now.  Throw in a few recent shifts in voting, and that means that Prairie cities like Brandon, Portage la Prairie (although in that federal constituency Portage is outvoted by the right-wing cities of Morden and Winkler) Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Red Deer, and large areas of Edmonton and Calgary should be targetted in order to again reduce the number of Conservative seats.

The hypocricy surrounding Western Canada in the NDP really bothers me. Every time someone suggests you try to win back areas that the NDP used to win historically, people say "well, the Conservatives win by such large margins it is just not worth trying." These same people want to grow the NDP by winning in regions of the country that not only have no NDP histories, but where the gap between the NDP and the other parties is just as, if not more, insurmountable than it is here on the Prairies. There was almost no NDP history in Quebec prior to 2011, and the surge in support for the NDP there was enough to win constituencies where previously the party support was in the single digits. You're telling me the same thing can't happen in Western Canada where people voted NDP before, and the federal party can rely on some of the strongest provincial NDP infrastructure anywhere in the country?

Pondering

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Every time someone suggests you try to win back areas that the NDP used to win historically, people say "well, the Conservatives win by such large margins it is just not worth trying." These same people want to grow the NDP by winning in regions of the country that not only have no NDP histories, but where the gap between the NDP and the other parties is just as, if not more, insurmountable than it is here on the Prairies. There was almost no NDP history in Quebec prior to 2011, and the surge in support for the NDP there was enough to win constituencies where previously the party support was in the single digits. You're telling me the same thing can't happen in Western Canada where people voted NDP before, and the federal party can rely on some of the strongest provincial NDP infrastructure anywhere in the country?

You are absolutely right and it is more evidence that it isn't all a matter of people being right, centre, or left. Most voters will say they are none of these. They are voting on specific issues that they don't see as ideological. Quebec voter ideology is not swinging wildly from the left to the centre to the right and back again despite the fact that ridings have gone to the Bloc, the Conservatives the Liberals and the NDP.

 

R.E.Wood

Since no-one has bothered to mention the latest Nanos numbers, they're briefly referenced in this otherwise damned-by-faint-praise article:

Singh tries to rally his troops as the NDP struggles to gain traction

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says many Canadians have told him they are struggling with uncertain employment, a lack of housing and expensive medication — problems he told the party's most faithful Tuesday he believes his party can fix, despite depressed support in recent polls.

Singh spoke to NDP staffers who gathered in Ottawa from across the country for the federal party's annual staff forum.

The NDP leader delivered a campaign-style speech, aimed at rallying the troops in the midst of the party's ongoing struggle to gain traction.

A recent Nanos survey suggested the NDP is at 14-per-cent support and that Singh is the preferred federal leader of only 5.7 per cent of voters surveyed. An Abacus survey released last month was not much rosier, placing the party at 16 per cent and Singh the choice for prime minister of 11 per cent of respondents.

But Singh was upbeat in Ottawa Tuesday, saying he believes Canadians are in "a tough spot" and need New Democrats to step up for them.

"Many Canadians feel like they voted for something and they didn't get what they voted for," he said. "I'm serving notice that good enough is not good enough. We deserve better, we need better and we're going to achieve that together."

Singh asked the audience of mainly young adult staffers to work harder in their regions to help build party support. They reacted with polite applause.

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2018/12/04/singh-tries-to-rally-his-tr...

JeffWells

Forum Poll: Conservatives 43%, Liberals 34%.

NDP? Oh yeah: 11%.

Can it get worse? Oh, I think so. With the Conservatives threatening to form government, and the NDP certain not to, you can expect a big Liberal play for "strategic voting." It'll be effective, too, since more than half identified NDP voters say things are better now than under Harper. And nearly a quarter of sitting members aren't running again, negating the power of incumbancy.

And that 11% is spread pretty thin across the nation. Unlike in '93, when a lower percentage of support was concentrated in a handful of bastions. I think the federal NDP is staring at oblivion.

If that means the left organizes to fill the vacuum, and doesn't repeat the NDP's mistake of mimicking the Liberals, oblivion's not so bad.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2908/federal-horserace-december-2018/...

Mighty Middle

Re: Forum Poll listed above.

If you dig deep in numbers they polled only 462 people (age 18 - 45) yet polled twice as many people (998) age 46 - 65+, and they tend to vote Conservative - thats 536 difference in people who lean Conservative. In fact for those 998 people polled, 409 of those people were 65+ ! And they tend to lean even more Conservative.

josh

Forum is a joke.  Other pollsters and political insiders have been ripping them to shreds online.  Even someone who used to work at Forum.

Corbett Retweeted Angus Johnson

I maybe the only pollster who has worked for every public poll in Canada (except Nanos and Leger) and I've never seen nonsense like this, even when I was at Forum.

https://twitter.com/johnVcorbett/status/1071808069498273793

R.E.Wood

From Angus Reid. Basically, Trudeau's numbers are way down, across geographic and demographic lines, putting Scheer in the lead apparently by default. Singh gets no boost from Trudeau's decline and trails at the back of the pack (6%), behind Elizabeth May (7%), as people's choice for PM. 

Singh also has the worst Approval-Disapproval ratio among all the leaders, with 53% disapproving of his job performance against 21% approving and 26% being unsure.

There are a couple other interesting tidbits, including the list of "most important issues facing Canada today", which notably does not include the "housing crisis" that Singh has apparently chosen as his #1 issue.

Winter of Discontent: As Justin Trudeau’s approval deteriorates, can his rivals make gains?

http://angusreid.org/federal-issues-dec2018/

NorthReport

Justin Trudeau’s popularity at lowest level since 2015

https://m.huffingtonpost.ca/amp/2018/12/19/trudeau-approval-rating-poll_a_23622710/

josh
NorthReport

I wonder if the perception of not standing up to the Chinese dictatorship is causing the drop in support for Trudeau.  

Winter of Discontent: As Justin Trudeau’s approval deteriorates, can his rivals make gains?

http://angusreid.org/federal-issues-dec2018/

JKR

Seems similar to the results of the 2015 election.

brookmere

JKR wrote:
Seems similar to the results of the 2015 election.

The Canada-wide numbers are masking a likely Liberal sweep and wipeout for the NDP in Quebec, where the latter now has more than a third of its MPs.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/liberals-enter-election-year-in-the-drivers-seat-but-tories-within-striking-distance

In Quebec, the Liberals (40%) have a commanding lead over the Conservatives (21%), Bloc (17%), NDP (16%) and others (6%).

In 2015 the numbers in Quebec were Liberals 35.7%, NDP 25.4%, BQ 19.3%, and Conservatives 16.7%.

WWWTT

NorthReport wrote:

Justin Trudeau’s popularity at lowest level since 2015

https://m.huffingtonpost.ca/amp/2018/12/19/trudeau-approval-rating-poll_a_23622710/

Huge F"N WOW! Justin's disaproval rate in Quebec is the third highest province in Canada!!!!

Only surpased by the obvious Alberta and Saskatchewan! Justin has a lower disaproval rating in Ontario.

I said this before and I will say it again, when Justin went to China and tried to ram down his born again feminism selfy queen political style down the socialist open pro peace environmental freindly green energy anti imperialist communist Chinese government, he was pretty much publicly broadcasting to everyone that he's a shit for brain intellect going nowhere in a hurry!

Get ready rabble/babble for the flurry of closet liberals coming out and spreading fear about why, despite the fact that Justin is useless, Canadians have to vote liberal because those nasty conservatives. And somehow we're all supposed to not support the real potential PM Jag?!?!?!?!

This is going to get interesting!

WWWTT

NorthReport wrote:

I wonder if the perception of not standing up to the Chinese dictatorship is causing the drop in support for Trudeau.  

Winter of Discontent: As Justin Trudeau’s approval deteriorates, can his rivals make gains?

http://angusreid.org/federal-issues-dec2018/

I wonder if the perception of not standing up to the American dictatorship, and not supporting the anti imperialist socialist/communist government (the most progressive of major nations) in China is hurting Justin and his merry band of liberals?

 

nicky

New Abacus poll : Lib 35, Con 34, NDP 17

On these numbers I would exp

ect the Conservatives to get a plurality of the seats and probably form government.

It wouls be a delicious irony for the FPTP system to oust Justin after he betrayed his promise to bring in a fairer electoral system

josh

WWWTT wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

I wonder if the perception of not standing up to the Chinese dictatorship is causing the drop in support for Trudeau.  

Winter of Discontent: As Justin Trudeau’s approval deteriorates, can his rivals make gains?

http://angusreid.org/federal-issues-dec2018/

I wonder if the perception of not standing up to the American dictatorship, and not supporting the anti imperialist socialist/communist government (the most progressive of major nations) in China is hurting Justin and his merry band of liberals?

 

 

Yes, not supporting the Chinese government is hurting him.  Because of the notable constituency for it.

Image result for rolleyes

WWWTT

Send in the trolls! Oh no wait, they're already here.

Cody87

WWWTT wrote:

...the socialist open pro peace environmental freindly green energy anti imperialist communist Chinese government...

Okay, I apologize in advance if this was intended in a sarcastic or satirical manner, but you seem serious.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions

China emits ~30% of the entire world's CO2 emissions. Yes, they have a huge population, but that's still well above the per-capita average. They emit twice as much as the US and more than 4x as much as India.

China, environmentally friendly? Give me a break.

And while we're at it, pro-peace? That's why they have a million Muslims in concentration camps, right?

https://thenewsrep.com/109313/chinas-concentration-camps-auschwitz-2-0-o...

A state-owned newspaper defended the camps by writing that “Peace and stability must come above all else. With this as the goal, all measures can be tried.”

“They wouldn’t let me sleep, they would hang me up for hours and would beat me. They had thick wooden and rubber batons, whips made from twisted wire, needles to pierce the skin, pliers for pulling out the nails. All these tools were displayed on the table in front of me, ready to use at any time. And I could hear other people screaming as well.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/china-holds-million-uighur-mus...

Locked up, uprooted far from home and family, 10-20 percent of the Uighur Muslim population in Xinjiang are currently experiencing or have endured the horrors of the largest network of internment camps since World War II. Those who resist while inside are tortured, and reports of deaths from family members and outright disappearances are widely documented. The majority of those interned have been men, and the Chinese authorities have supplemented the disproportionate incarceration of men with a policy forcing Uighur Muslim women to marry (non-Muslim) Han men. Further diluting the Uighur Muslim population and entrenching Han hegemony.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/14/china-claims-muslim-intern...

According to a Human Rights Watch (HRW) report on Monday, former detainees described being denied food, being shackled or forced to stand for 24 hours, and being subjected to solitary confinement and sleep deprivation.

This is only the most recent of the Chinese government's bad history of human rights violations and they also have a bad record on environmental issues. It's one thing if you prefer their system of government, but be honest with yourself (and us) about their faults.

WWWTT

LOL! Hey Cody 87 how about you check you numbers again? Mine say that China produces less than half per capita than a country like Canada or the US. Lower than Germany and Japan PER CAPITA!

https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/science-and-impacts/science/each-c...

Edited to add

Actualy Cody87 I checked over the per capita numbers in your wikipedia link and they show that China is actually reducing their per capita numbers in relation to Canada and the US! But but but how can that be if they don't have a pro environment government as you suggest???

According to your logic, 1 Chinese person does not equal 1 Canadian person! That's fuckin racism! And you call yourself a progressive! How about you do the rest of us real progressives a favour and stop trying to stand so close to us.

As far as your western links about Islamic extremists in China goes, I know you're real disapointed that these religious fanatics are not allowed to rampage on atheists, killing innocent people at train stations durring holidays in their attempt to bring down the peoples communist government.

But hey, I predicted that closet imperialists like you would come out of the woodwork once these polls showing your darling Justin was in trouble for jailing a Chinese national at the wishes of his imperialist masters the US!

 

 

bekayne

WWWTT wrote:

But hey, I predicted that closet imperialists like you would come out of the woodwork once these polls showing your darling Justin was in trouble for jailing a Chinese national at the wishes of his imperialist masters the US!

So that's why they're moving to the Conservatives?

WWWTT

Here we go another troll that all of a suden doesn't understand how politics  works in Canada when their darling Justin and the liberals starts showing cracks.

How predictable

NorthReport

Now that the Liberals and the Conservatives are statistically tied it’s time to start talking about the advantages of minority  governments And there are many

NorthReport

And yea let support undemocratic societies like China who love Canada’s temporary foreign workers BS

HD Mining anyone?

Remember they couldn’t find any Chinese speaking miners in Canada for their environmentally sound coal operation behind barbed wire and security guards in Tumbler Ridge BC

HD Mining left but now they are back

Thanks Mr Harper

And thanks Mr Trudeau

WWWTT

Hey North Report, why are you such a big fan of the corporate imperialist invention called western democracy?

Ever heard of Cindy Forster? She was an NDP mpp from Welland Ontario. I really connected with Cindy and she’s a fantastic person!!!! She told me once at a fund raiser 6 years ago that if you can’t raise $100 000 in political donations, you will never win. So really, is this a democracy?

To me it sounds like you’re pissed off that Justin and his liberals are starting to slip in the polls because of the arrest of Ms Meng. I really believe that if Justin disapproval ratings were about something else, you’d be ok with that, but China!?!?!? No not China!

bekayne

WWWTT wrote:

Hey North Report, why are you such a big fan of the corporate imperialist invention called western democracy?

Ever heard of Cindy Forster? She was an NDP mpp from Welland Ontario. I really connected with Cindy and she’s a fantastic person!!!! She told me once at a fund raiser 6 years ago that if you can’t raise $100 000 in political donations, you will never win. So really, is this a democracy?

To me it sounds like you’re pissed off that Justin and his liberals are starting to slip in the polls because of the arrest of Ms Meng. I really believe that if Justin disapproval ratings were about something else, you’d be ok with that, but China!?!?!? No not China!

You're accusing North Report of being a Liberal?

WWWTT

LOL! No I would never do that! Cmon hey!

NorthReport

Hey W

Hoe about first of all let’s lose the personal attacks because that is always s sure sign of weak arguments 

Secondly if you are accusing me of what the previous poster eluded to you don’t have much of a grasp of  what goes down here at babble

Me thinks though that you really need to get off your high horse about the China can do no wrong scenarios you keep trying to paint We get it you like China but so do probably most posters here but give your head a little shake

Contrast Meng’s house arrest in her million dollar home in the Tony west side of Vancouver compared to the treatment being afforded the Canadians that have been rounded up in China and you don’t have much of a leg to stand on

WWWTT wrote:

Here we go another troll that all of a suden doesn't understand how politics  works in Canada when their darling Justin and the liberals starts showing cracks.

How predictable

Cody87

WWWTT wrote:

LOL! Hey Cody 87 how about you check you numbers again? Mine say that China produces less than half per capita than a country like Canada or the US. Lower than Germany and Japan PER CAPITA!

https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/science-and-impacts/science/each-c...

Edited to add

Actualy Cody87 I checked over the per capita numbers in your wikipedia link and they show that China is actually reducing their per capita numbers in relation to Canada and the US! But but but how can that be if they don't have a pro environment government as you suggest???

So, would you say Canada and the US have pro-environment governments? And if not, then how is "China isn't as bad as them" any kind of argument?

See the source image

Here's a graph that shows exactly how "environmentally friendly" your precious communist China is. Since 2000 they have tripled their CO2 emissions.

WWWTT wrote:

As far as your western links about Islamic extremists in China goes, I know you're real disapointed that these religious fanatics are not allowed to rampage on atheists, killing innocent people at train stations durring holidays in their attempt to bring down the peoples communist government.

Western links? One of my links was from Al Jazeera of all places!

Anyway, it's amazing that you're so delusional that you can call me a racist and in the very same post celebrate concentration camps for more than a million ethnic minorities in China, and not have any self awareness of how utterly ridiculous that makes your position.

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