In Beauce, recently nominated candidate Richard Lehoux of the Conservatives has 37.9% support, while Bernier has 34.7% support among decided and leaning voters.
“Bernier narrows the gap when we ask Beauce residents which candidates they would vote for,” continued Maggi. “But there is no mistake that Bernier would be in trouble if the election were held today.
Finally, 35.9% of decided and leaning voters in Burnaby South said that they would vote Liberal in the upcoming by-election, while 29.3% said that they would vote Conservative. 27.2% said that they would vote NDP.
“Given these numbers, it is surprising to see the NDP clamour for a by-election”, concluded Maggi.
From reading different opinions around here, it seems like Liberals want Singh to stay on as leader until the General Election. If this poll reflects the ground reality then Liberals are stuck. They call the byelection and win and Singh may quit or be forced out. Or they are not calling the byelection that Singh may lose to the Cons which is probably the worst result for the Liberals. Cons can tout a win and Liberals finish third and Singh is replaced.
I believe Liberals want Singh to win and their internal polling is showing Singh losing to the Cons, thats why they have not called the by election.
Too many variables and unknowns.