2019 Polls

NANOS, February 12 - I'm including the party popularity, as well as "preferred prime minister" numbers:

Liberals 37.5

Conservatives 34.4

NDP 13.0

Greens 7.4

BQ 3.8

People’s Party of Canada (PPC) 1.7 

Preferred Prime Minister –

Trudeau 35.5% 

Scheer 24.9%

May 6.4%

Singh 5.9%

Bernier 3.8%

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2019/02/12/liberals-38-conservatives-3...

bekayne wrote:

Campaign Research (taken Feb 7-11)

Con 37% (+2) // Lib 32% ( -1) // NDP 14% (-2)

Best PM:

Trudeau 28% // Scheer 25% // May 6% // Singh 4% (2% for voters over 55, -49% approval with voters over 65) // Bernier not prompted

https://www.campaignresearch.ca/single-post/2019/02/13/Conservative-Part...

The narrative with this poll in the media, is that Trudeau support has dropped in the wake of SNC.

But it should be noted that Campaign Research previous polling (going all the way back to 2018) has had the Conservatives consistently in first place (see their previous polling before the end of 2018 below)

https://www.campaignresearch.ca/single-post/2018/12/14/With-less-than-a-...

So if they consistently had the Conservatives leading in their polling, what really has changed from then to today?

In addition the brains behind Campaign Research is a former Tory Staffer PLUS Nick Kouvalus (pollster for Rob Ford and John Tory)

Trudeau Liberals leaking support in latest poll even before Butt’s resignation 

Cons 36% Up 2%

Libs 34% Down 4%

NDP 17% Down 1%

https://globalnews.ca/news/4973581/trudeau-government-leaks-support-snc-lavalin-wilson-raybould-poll/

Also in the latest Nanos, the spread between May and Singh as "Preferred Prime Minister" is increasing as she rises and he continues to drop...

Trudeau 35.7

Scheer 23.4%

May 7.7%

Singh 5.3%

Bernier 2.7%

New Leger Poll taken during SNC Headlines (Feb. 15 to Feb. 19)

Conservatives 36%

Liberals 34%

NDP 12%

Green 8%

People’s 4%

"Preferred Prime Minister"

Justin Trudeau 26%

Andrew Scheer 21%

Elizabeth May 8%

Jagmeet Singh 6%

Maxime Bernier 4%

Leger says it's  interesting that Scheer is not picking up the slack, he said.

“There’s nobody right now that’s capturing the minds and hearts of Canadians and probably explains why voting intentions are so close while we see that the prime minister is actually showing signs of weakening in terms of support,”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-leger-poll-shows-justin-t...

North Report wrote:

Perhaps those Team Trudeau signs might want to kept in storage at least for the time being.

Why would he when Justin Trudeau is double digits ahead of Scheer and Singh in the "preferred PM" Nanos Poll?

R.E.Wood wrote:

Also in the latest Nanos, the spread between May and Singh as "Preferred Prime Minister" is increasing as she rises and he continues to drop...

Trudeau 35.7

Scheer 23.4%

May 7.7%

Singh 5.3%

Bernier 2.7%

Why do you keep harping on such nonsense as there is no here that is promoting a Conservative victory But as Trudeau stumbles the stupidity in kicking the NDP to the curb will probably end up in such a result

NorthReport wrote:

Why do you keep harping on such nonsense as there is no here that is promoting a Conservative victory But as Trudeau stumbles the stupidity in kicking the NDP to the curb will probably end up in such a result

I think the Conservatives and the Liberals are the only parties that have any real chance at forming a federal government over the foreseeable future. I think that's the reality we have to deal with.

First post SNC-Lavalin polls look bad for the Trudeau Liberals

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-polls-snclavalin-1.5026798

North Report the NDP are at 14% - how do they gain 26% in 8 months to win the election?

JKR wrote:

I think the Conservatives and the Liberals are the only parties that have any real chance at forming a federal government over the foreseeable future. I think that's the reality we have to deal with.

I agree totally and the other options are barely palatable even if they had a chance of success. It is why I only talk about politics now, not engage in it.

New data from Mainstreet/Cogeco (Feb. 17, Quebec only): 40% LIB (-3 since Jan. 18), 21% CON (+2), 17% BQ (+4), 9% NDP (=), 7% GRN (-2), 5% PPC

Devastating polling results for Liberals who are now 7 points behind in latest poll

http://angusreid.org/snc-lavalin/

Could also be a number of other factors having a subtle play. Extreme weather, liberal/NDP battle perceptions on voters, candidates among others. 

Also, ya the poll could be wrong, who knows?

I sometimes (who am I kidding, almost fucking always) believe that polls are intentionally meant to mislead to manipulate voters (like herding cattle)

Ignore this as it is too soon to be polling

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.thestar.com/amp/politics/federal/2019/03/01/majority-of-poll-respondents-say-opinion-of-justin-trudeau-worsened-by-snc-lavalin-scandal.html

More than three quarters (TOP2: 80%) of Conservative voters say it will impact their vote. It will likewise affect the vote of one-third (TOP2: 30%) of Liberals. About 4 in 10 (BTM2: 41%) say it won’t impact their vote, with a quarter (24%) saying it won’t impact their vote at all. Almost three-quarters (BTM2: 70%) of Liberal voters say it won’t have an impact on their vote. 

80% of Conservatives say it will impact their vote. So they are going to vote Liberal? How will it impact their vote. They will vote Conservative more firmly and with greater devotion? I bet NDP voters won't vote Liberal either. 

The 30% of Liberals saying it will impact their vote is in the heat of the moment. Their preferred PM probably remains Trudeau.

Despite the excitement current polls do not predict an election in October. Several things can happen - some examples:

1) New events could crowd this scandal out somewhat allowing the Liberals to recover.

2) The scandal could deepen and become bigger.

3) The PM could resign if he felt that he had no chance of winning - If the Liberals had a new leader then it is a whole new set of questions

4) The opposition could overplay or blow their campaign - People might look at the Conservatives and be turned off due to something they see and return to the Liberals.

5) The NDP could suddenly start to perform well and take maximum advantage of what woudl seem to be a second chance at resetting the Singh leadership

6) Elizabeth May could make a breakthrough and shake things up -- with or without the BQ also making gains. The result could be a very divided parliament or a very divided set of races producing a majority that is even more false than usual

7) Bernier could somehow unite the prejudiced and hateful into a bigger coalition than people imagine. Difficult to predict the path of Trumpsim -- will it blow up with an Orange jumpsuit to go with the orange hair and face -- or will it somehow manage to keep conning enough Republicans in a screwed up electoral map?

The question is not about prediction it is about odds.

I think that Trudeau has a number of advantages as well as a massive problem here. A more strong, united and credible opposition would probably make Trudeau's position near hopeless but this is not the case. The second place  Conservatives is a party that may or may not have a limit to its growth potential even in the face of an unpopular PM.

While the next PM could come in as a compromise and actually not be popular Trudeau could be that choice -- so could Scheer. If all the stars lined up it could even be May or Singh.

If I had to bet, I would say Scheer has a bit of an advantage but I do not think he is strong enough for that to be prohibitive for Trudeau or another party.

In simple mathematics terms Canada has a problem. Our system of First Past the Post is not proportional but it is more likely to be close when there are fewer parties  in contention. The more parties the greater the potential distortion and the greater the number of regionally lost votes.

Just think: LPC, CPC, NDP, GR, BQ, PP -- six parties. They will average 16 percent.

Assume 2 larger ones at about 25% each, one 20%, One at 12%, One at 10% and one at 5% with 3% other. With the right distribution a party could get a majority with only a quarter of the vote.

Under political earthquake conditions a government could be led by any one of four parties without them having to break a quarter of the vote. In the distribution above the party with 20% of the vote with a bit of luck could be the one with the most seats in a minority or at 25% secure a majority.

Given this the Liberals could be reduced a great deal and still end up with a majority provided the opposition is fractured (particularly some strength to Bernier) and a close split between the NDP and Greens. On the other hand a breakout by any of the other parties does not need to go far to win.

So there is no certain win for Scheer or certain loss for Trudeau but we are at the point where security for Trudeau has evaporated and anything could happen.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but even Bernier could end up PM- if he lit a fire under the hateful types he amps up, and beats Scheer in seats due to concentration and the Liberals, NDP, BQ and Greens split in the perfect way for him, he could end up PM with a popular vote of less than 20% and some luck in distribution of this vote with the Liberals being less efficient. This is easier than you think. The bigger party may also be more evenly distributed running second to each of these other parties. Let's be clear, Singh's chances are better than Bernier's -- as are May's and Trudeau's.

Consider this mathematical possibility even if it is extraordinarily unlikely: if the parties ended up close in support, a BQ recovery in Quebec could bring that party the largest voting block (Divide 338 by 6 and you can see that Quebec has more seats than the average party count if there are 6 parties). Their concentration could help them achieve the biggest block with less than 12% of the vote if the distribution is perfect.

The more you increase the parties that are big enough to get seats, the less functional FPTP becomes and the less predictable the result is. Factor in a participation rate with awful options and we could see only 50% of eligible voters cast ballots.

Let me shake this up further. Imagine Jodi Raybould Wilson being kicked out of the Liberal caucus and the potential with other sitting MPs for there to be an Indigenous voting block and suddenly you could see 7 parties. (I would vote for such a block in a heartbeat if I had an option.)

I hope with these extreme fantasies that I have illustrated the ridiculousness of thinking that the next election is predictable other than by placing odds.

Team Trudeau taking quite s hit

https://abacusdata.ca/has-the-snc-lavalin-wilson-raybould-controversy-impacted-public-opinion/

Agreed. Predictions are always "short of". That is this election was looking like a cakewalk for Trudeau unless something big happened. At first it did not look like this would be big enough and you are right it could still blow over.

Even if it doesn't completely you are also right that this isn't just an up/down vote for Trudeau or the Liberals. Elections are about best of the bunch or least worse of the bunch. Someone unpopular can still win as long as they are less unpopular than the other choices.  Strategic voting also comes into play. I am heartened to see a bit of a lift for the NDP but I don't think Ipso Reid is one of the more accurate pollsters. Don't they usually favor the Conservatives?