Canada and global warming: a state of denial

A group of doctors in Alberta are attempting to get voters in the province to focus on the harmful effects of climate change on people's health. They focused their efforts on Calgary, where the election is likely to be decided, with a series of billboards and newspaper ads that run in Calgary, trying to capture the attention of those who are not either climate change activists or deniers. This is likely a hard sell in the oil capital, but I salute their effort. 

The doctors posted the following overview of research on the risks to people's health from climate change on the internet. The 7,142 premature deaths in 2015 from fine particulate matter, much of it from fossil fuels, noted in the posted article of the doctors below is far greater than the 1,860 killed in car accidents in the same year (https://www.cacp.ca/index.html?asst_id=1626)

On November 29th, a global research team hailing from 27 academic institutions and inter-governmental organizations, released the 2018 edition of the report, “Lancet Countdown: Tracking Progress on Health and Climate Change”.

Released for the first time in 2017, the Lancet Countdown tracks 41 indicators related to the health impacts of climate change, adaptation to climate change, policies to reduce climate emissions, the financial and economic drivers of climate change, and the political and public drivers of climate change.

Global Findings

With data collected from 196 countries, the 2018 report identifies extreme heat as the health impact of greatest
concern. The researchers note that global temperatures have been increasing steadily since 1990 with the
highest increases in Europe. They found that 157 million more vulnerable people were exposed to
heat waves in 2017 than were exposed in 2000. Explaining that the hearts, kidneys and livers of people cannot handle temperatures greater than 40 degrees C, the researchers estimated that 153 billion hours of labour were lost to extreme heat in 2017. This is 62 billion hours more than would have been lost in 2000.

The researchers also found increasing rates of insect- or animal-borne diseases in Africa, a downward trend in agricultural yields in 30 countries, and increasing economic losses due to extreme weather events. They report that in 2017, 712 extreme weather events occurred resulting in $326 billion (US funds) in economic losses; nearly a three-fold increase in economic losses over 2016.

The report concludes that “A lack of progress in reducing emissions and building adaptive capacity threatens both human lives and the viability of national health systems they depend on, with the potential to disrupt core public health infrastructure and overwhelm health services.” 

Canadian Findings and Recommendations

On the same day, the Lancet Countdown team, working in collaboration with the Canadian Medical Association (CMA) and the Canadian Public Health Association (CPHA), released the second version of the report, “Lancet Countdown 2018 Report: Briefing for Canadian Policymakers”.  ...

this brief notes that extreme heat claimed the lives of at least 90 Canadians this summer and reports that mean temperatures are increasing across Canada and more people are being exposed to higher temperatures.  ...

The brief, which observes that Canada is not yet doing its fair share to reduce its climate emissions, examines the health costs associated with air pollution from energy production and use in Canada. The researchers estimate that chronic exposure to fine particulate (PM2.5) air pollution from human activity in Canada resulted in 7,142 premature deaths in 2015. They attributed: 345 of those deaths to coal- fired power plants, 105 to coal-related industries, 2762 to non-coal industries, 1063 to land-based transportation, and 1282 to the agricultural sector. 

The health impacts from this air pollution were valued at $53.5 billion. The researchers note that many of the actions needed to reduce climate emissions will also reduce air pollution-related health impacts. For
example, Canada’s transportation and oil and gas sectors, which are significant contributors to air pollution, are also responsible for 25% and 26% respectively of all Canada’s climate emissions. 

The brief recommends that Canada increase its ambition to reduce climate emissions and air pollution in Canada and twin this goal with Just Transition Policies. 

https://cape.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/CAPE-Factsheet-Lancet-2018.pdf

NorthReport wrote:

jerrym and epaulo13

Thanks to both of you for helping to keep us focused on the singnificant issues in our society and planet

Thanks North Report.

Furthermore, Trudeau simply adopted Harper's 2030 greenhouse gas emissions targets as his own, despite Harper being seen as a fossil fuel dinosaur and Trudeau claiming he was real environmentalist in the 2015 election. 

Some voters had a lot of hope for the federal Liberals back in 2015. First of all, Justin Trudeau was not Stephen Harper, a fact some people really liked. He also had a pile of platform promises that appealed to many Canadians. Confronting climate change was one of the big ones.

The Liberal platform pointed out how inept Harper’s Conservatives were on climate change and said “We will end the cycle of federal parties – of all stripes – setting arbitrary targets without a real federal/provincial/territorial plan in place.” ...

So what happened? Well, the air was let out of the tires. They decided to go with Harper’s goal of a 30 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in Canada by 2030. They said that reduction would be a floor rather than a ceiling. Turns out it’s a ceiling. It also turns out they really don’t have a plan to implement the goal; their ‘Pan Canadian Framework’ is mostly hype and has pretty well fallen apart. And even then it didn’t actually say how Canada would meet Harper’s target. So not what was promised.

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/02/14/opinion/how-trudeaus-climate...

Wildfire season is starting very early this year in British Columbia, which is not a good sign considering that the 2017  record-setting wildfire season in terms of area burned was followed by a new 2018 record season. As even former Premier Christy Clark admitted in 2015, "This is the new normal" that is closely linked to global warming, according to scientists.  In 2017, more than 65,000 people were displaced from their homes by BC wildfires for extended periods, while tens of thousands more were also forced to flee their homes in 2018. The area burnt by wildfires in BC in 2018 was more than twice the size of Prince Edward Island. 

The costs of these wildfires have been growing exponentially. 

Budget 2019 includes a forecast allowance of $500 million in 2019/20 and $300 million in each of the two subsequent years. ...

Last year, the costs of firefighting and emergency programs related to floods and fires were more than $850 million over budget. ...

According to the Ministry of Finance:

• Historic fire costs have ranged from $53.5 million in 2011 to $649.5 million in 2017.
• In 2018/19, direct wildfire costs totalled more than $400 million.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4981568/bc-budget-wildfire-costs/

The new reality is reflected in the fact that the NDP "government is increasing funding for wildfire management by 58 per cent".

The additional funding for 2019 will help the B.C. Wildfire Service with its fire response capabilities, according to Doug Donaldson, Minister of Forests, Lands, and Natural Resources. It will be used to help reduce wildfire risks in affected communities and to pay for more crews and equipment.

In 2018, more than 13,000 square kilometres of the province was burned, surpassing the 2017 record of 12,161 square kilometres. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-preparation-wildfires...

The Atlantic provinces are already great risk from sea level rise according to  Canada's Changing Climate Report with sea level projected to rise 75 cm to 1 metre by 2100 and 10 cm within a decade. Sea level rise in the future could cut the isthmus connection between Nova Scotia and New Brunswick during storm surges causing enormous environmental and economic problems in both provinces. Canada is way behind other G8 countries in letting people know what is the risk to their own property despite the fact that Canada is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world.  

Worrying figures released this week on the rising seas in Atlantic Canada should prompt governments and citizens to move more swiftly to protect coastal buildings and vital transport links, say flooding experts. ...

Blair Greenan, a federal oceanographer who oversaw the oceans chapter of the report, said in an interview that without any adaptation measures, flooding during Halifax storms will be noticeable in just a decade as relative sea level goes up about 10 centimetres. "It will probably have doubled," he said during an interview. "It is an important point that southern Atlantic Canada is the highest risk area in Canada for sea level rise." ...

The Atlantic region is facing a dual effect of rising seas and falling coastlines, says the study.

It notes that while in much of the country the coast is rebounding from glaciation — helping counter sea level rise — the eastern coasts are continuing to sink.

Blair Feltmate [,head of the Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation at the University of Waterloo,] said while the report documents less drastic outcomes in a scenario of lower emissions, he believes the current "high emissions scenario" — where current amounts of fossil fuels continue to be burned — is much likelier.

"That [high emission scenario] is what is going to happen," he said, adding that he has attended the most recent G20 meetings and has heard no firm commitments from nations that they will even meet goals set in the Paris Accord. ...

The federal study also highlights the vulnerability of the Chignecto Isthmus — a low-lying, 20-kilometre band of land which joins Nova Scotia to New Brunswick, said Feltmate. The Canadian Press recently reported on the risk of much of the East Coast being cut off if the key trade corridor is submerged due to a strong tidal surge overtopping dikes that were last upgraded over 50 years ago. ...

Jason Thistlethwaite, a professor of environment and business at the University of Waterloo, says all Canadian jurisdictions also need to rapidly begin providing easily accessible flood risk maps for citizens.

In other G8 countries maps are used to raise public awareness and help create the political will for investment in preparing for sea level rise, he said.

A recent study by his research group indicated many Canadians lack access to clear maps that tell them the risks to their property and what actions to take to prevent flooding, he said."This report demonstrates the urgency of this issue ...

This is reminding us that climate change will have disproportionate impact on northern countries and we're one of them," said Thistlethwaite in an interview Saturday. One of the report's key overall findings is that Canada is warming up twice as fast as the rest of the world and it's "effectively irreversible."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/climate-change-report-rising-...

A new study warns that glaciers around the world are melting much faster than previously thought. They are now melting at five times the rate of the 1960s, thereby greatly increasing the rate of sea level rise.

Those that are shrinking the fastest include those in western Canada, where the dry prairie region depends on runoff from glaciers for a significant part of its water supply. Since the 1960s, the global glacier melt has been enough to cover the United States in four feet of water. 

The sea level rise from melting glaciers is forcing coastal cities, including Canada's, around the world to deal with enormous challenges - spend trillions of dollars to attempt to perhaps protect them or face ongoing flooding. 

Earth’s glaciers are melting much faster than scientists thought. A new study shows they are losing 369 billion tons of snow and ice each year, more than half of that in North America.

The most comprehensive measurement of glaciers worldwide found that thousands of inland masses of snow compressed into ice are shrinking 18 percent faster than an international panel of scientists calculated in 2013.

The world’s glaciers are shrinking five times faster now than they were in the 1960s. Their melt is accelerating due to global warming, and adding more water to already rising seas, the study found.

“Over 30 years suddenly almost all regions started losing mass at the same time,” said lead author Michael Zemp, director of the World Glacier Monitoring Service at the University of Zurich. “That’s clearly climate change if you look at the global picture.”

The glaciers shrinking fastest are in central Europe, the Caucasus region, western Canada, the U.S. Lower 48 states, New Zealand and near the tropics. Glaciers in these places on average are losing more than 1 percent of their mass each year, according to a study in Monday’s journal Nature. ...

Rising seas threaten coastal cities around the world and put more people at risk of flooding during storms.

While people think of glaciers as polar issues, shrinking mountain glaciers closer to the equator can cause serious problems for people who depend on them, said Twila Moon, a snow and ice data center scientist who also wasn’t part of the study. She said people in the Andes, for example, rely on the glaciers for drinking and irrigation water each summer.

A separate study Monday in Environmental Research Letters confirmed faster melting and other changes in the Arctic. It found that in winter, the Arctic is warming 2.8 times faster than the rest of the Northern Hemisphere. Overall, the region is getting more humid, cloudier and wetter. “It’s on steroids, it’s hyperactive,” said lead author Jason Box, a scientist for the Danish Meteorological Institute.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5142331/climate-change-glaciers/

In March, Richmond British Columbia city council "declared a climate emergency. The vote was unanimous this evening (Monday) to declare the climate emergency and commit to meeting greenhouse-gas reduction standards set by the UN’s Inter-Government Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)." (https://www.richmond-news.com/news/richmond-declares-climate-emergency-1...)

A 2012 BC government report concluded that Metro Vancouver would require $9.5 billion in flood protection improvements by 2100. But the then ruling nothing to implement such improvements and it is now clear that those 2100 projections are developing much faster as new reports show Canada is warming much faster.  Richmond, much of which is  already below sea level and is only protected from widespread flooding by levees, is one of the most threatened areas by sea level rise. 

Combating rising sea levels due to global warming could cost $9.5 billion in flood-protection improvements in Metro Vancouver — including sea gates at False Creek and Steveston — by 2100, according to a report released Tuesday by the B.C. government.

The report, Cost of Adaptation - Sea Dikes and Alternative Strategies, covers the Metro Vancouver coastal shoreline and the Fraser River downstream of Port Mann Bridge — an area with more than 250 kilometres of shoreline.

The $9.5-billion cost estimate includes design, project management, land acquisition, environmental mitigation, impacts on utilities and pump stations and earthquake-resistant construction methods.

The Delcan report singled out three areas in the region for potential special protective measures:

- False Creek: A $25-million sea gate would allow the movement of water and boats through during normal water levels but would be closed during storm conditions to limit sea levels and reduce the height of shoreline defences needed around the perimeter of False Creek.

- Steveston: Use Shady Island as part of a breakwater/barrier with a sea gate to protect a densely developed waterfront with historic buildings at an estimated cost $10 million.

- Mud Bay, Surrey: Sea gates at the mouths of the Nicomekl and Serpentine rivers at a cost of $10 million each, along with a "managed retreat" or gradual decommission of development in the area.

http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Metro+Vancouver+dike+improvements...

ETA: In the US, there are already 820,000 homes that are priced at a discount at a total cost of $14.1 billion because of the threat of coastal flooding due to global warming.

The following article warns that Metro Vancouver is the city in Canada facing the greatest threat from coastal flooding for the same reason. Similar flooding has already occurred in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island. Halifax is also at risk. Considering the fact that Canada has the longest coastline by far of any country in the world, the damage that is occurring now and will occur in the future raises the question of why we are sleepwalking to disaster.

The Trudeau Liberal's adoption of Harper's greenhouse gas emission reduction targets is far from enough to even begin to deal with this problem. However the sad truth is there is almost no chance of his even meeting these targets, just like every other Canadian government for the last 25 years. Buying Trans Mountain proves that Trudeau and the Liberals have no intention of  even trying. 

An aerial view of flooding in Fredericton, N.B., in the spring of 2018. The Saint John River is forecast to flood more frequently as global temperatures rise.

Climate experts have warned for some time that flooding caused by rising sea levels could wreak havoc with local economies, but new research suggests this is already happening — and in Canada, it's homeowners in Greater Vancouver who stand to lose the most.

According to new research from the First Street Foundation, a U.S.-based non-profit that studies climate change, homeowners in eight coastal U.S. states have lost a total of US$14.1 billion in home value since 2005 due to increased tidal flooding.

The study, an expansion of work first published in the peer-reviewed Population Research and Policy Review, found that there is a "discount" on properties due to flooding risk; that this discount is growing over time; and that it's directly linked to a given property's exposure to flooding. ...

By comparing property sales in flood-prone areas to comparable properties in similarly-priced areas outside flood zones, they found that some 820,000 homes — including 384,000 in Florida alone — have been slapped with a flood discount.

"We all knew that flooding issues were getting worse from sea level rise, but the home value loss associated with it is truly staggering," First Street Foundation executive director Matthew Eby said in a statement. "The time to act is now."

Interactive maps from U.S.-based organization Climate Central show that just a one-degree rise in temperatures would raise sea levels enough to flood vast tracts of the southern part of the Greater Vancouver region, along with lower areas of North Vancouver, if no action is taken to stop it.

A one-degree temperature rise is considered virtually inevitable at this point.

 

The screencap from Climate Central's website shows the extent of coastal flooding that Greater Vancouver could experience with a one-degree temperature rise.

It's not just Vancouver. Depending on how much temperatures rise, Halifax's harbourfront could be submerged, as could entire neighbourhoods in Charlottetown and parts of New Brunswick.

But it's the Greater Vancouver area where the largest number of people could be affected. An estimated 250,000 residents of the suburb of Richmond live in homes no more than a meter above sea level. Officials are not blind to the problem. Richmond is building "superdikes," some as much as 50 metres wide, in anticipation of increased flooding. ...

But some officials fear the money — and the political will needed — to address increased flooding just isn't there. "We're talking huge, huge amounts of money that will really have a negative impact on our economy," said Doug Smith, Vancouver's director of sustainability, as quoted by CBC News. He says the amounts of money needed to repair infrastructure are so high that they aren't politically viable.

But the study from First Street highlights the reality that governments can't stop the economic damage we risk from climate change simply by refusing to spend money. When the floods come to our coastal communities, the losses to home values, and the devastation those communities experience, may just be enough to convince policymakers to take action.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/08/25/climate-change-home-values_a_23...

Canada has failed to live up to its international greenhouse emissions targets over the last 25 years and is virtually guaranteed to continue to do so under the Trudeau Liberal government's 2030 targets, which are simply the Harper government's targets. According to 2018 statistics, we are the largest emitter per capita among G20 countries and emits three times the G20 average. The Trudeau Liberal government has no policies in place that could meet those targets. 

Canadians produce three times more greenhouse gas emissions than G20 average. Canada's push to be an international leader in the fight against climate change may be hampered by a distinction that it produces the most per-person greenhouse gas emissions among G20 economies. 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-canada-found-to-produce-m...

Canadians produce more greenhouse gas emissions per person than any other G20 economy, according to a new analysis.

[In November 2018] Climate Transparency, a coalition of international climate organizations, released its fourth annual review of the climate polices of G20 members. ... The report pointed out that none of them has a plan in place that would actually meet the goals of the Paris climate change agreement. ...

Combined, the G20 members represent about 70 per cent of the world’s economy and population. As a group, they are also responsible for more than 80 per cent of the world’s annual greenhouse gas emissions. ...

The Climate Transparency analysis said, on average, each Canadian produces 22 tonnes of greenhouse gas per year — which is the highest among all G20 members and nearly three times the G20 average of eight tonnes per person.

“It’s because of the oilsands and because of transportation,” said Abreu. “Oil and gas and transportation are the two largest and fastest growing sources of emissions in the country.”

Upstream oil and gas production in Canada emitted 100 million tonnes of greenhouse gases in 2016, the most recent year for which emissions statistics are available. It accounts for one out of every seven tonnes emitted in Canada and went up four million tonnes that year.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/11/14/canada-produces-most-gree...

The number of global warming protests around the world are rapidly increasing. 

Extinction Rebellion activists continue action after more than 100 arrested overnight

Police have moved in again to begin arresting climate activists blocking Waterloo Bridge in central London.

Hundreds of people had occupied the crossing and three other sites in the capital since Monday morning.

Over Monday night, officers tried to clear the bridge, arresting 113 people, but the blockade remained in place. Just after 12.30pm on Tuesday, officers moved in again and began to carry people away.

The protests are part of a global campaign organised by the British climate group Extinction Rebellion, with demonstrations planned in 80 cities across 33 countries in the coming days.

The group has called on the UK government to reduce carbon emissions to zero by 2025 and establish a citizens’ assembly to devise an emergency plan of action to tackle climate breakdown and biodiversity loss. ...

One of those facing arrest was Angie Zealter, 67, from Knighton in Wales. “It will take the police some time to clear all these people and more will come here to support us,” she said. “But this is a very import moment in history – it should have happened 50 years ago but at least it is starting to happen now. We are running out of time and our government must listen.” ...

One of those glued to the underside of the van, Ben Moss, 42, a company director from Bristol, said he had been there since midnight. “It’s drastic times and drastic times need drastic measures. I am taking personal action and personal responsibility for the ecological and climate crisis,” he said.

Moss said he was breaking the law for the sake of future generations. “I feel really sorry for the inconvenience we are causing and it is nothing personal, but the inconvenience we will all face if we don’t tackle this will be much, much worse,” he said. ...

On Tuesday afternoon, police said they were taking “positive action” on the demonstration, which the Metropolitan police said was causing “serious disruptions to public transport, local businesses and Londoners who wish to go about their daily business”.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/apr/16/more-than-100-people-arr...

In Guelph, demonstrators demander the city declare a climate emergency, following the examples set by Kingston, Hamilton and Richmond BC.

Dozens of people gathered in front of Guelph City Hall Monday afternoon calling on city council to take more action on climate change. ...

We're glad to see that push was happening from certain city councilors, but we're also aware that the mayor feels like enough has been done and other city councilors feel like enough has been done," said Dustin Brown, a spokesperson for Extinction Rebellion Guelph, the group that organized the demonstration.

Demonstrators participated in a "die-in" during the protest to symbolize how species are dying on earth due to climate change. People laid on the ground with their eyes closed for several minutes. ...

Guelph Coun. James Gordon said he plans to present a climate change emergency motion to council to better address climate change issues on a municipal level.

"It will contain a number of actions items and suggestions," Gordon, who is also part of the Climate Change Leadership Caucus, said.

The motion has not yet been finalized, but Gordon hopes to have it ready for council in the coming month.

Ward 6 Coun. Dominique O'Rourke said though it's encouraging that council is in agreement with the need to tackle climate change locally, she wants to see more concrete strategies, such as Guelph's efforts to become a net zero carbon community by 2050.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/climate-change-demonst...

I posted this under the Alberta election thread, but I feel it bears repeating here. 

Ken Burch wrote:

 

If Notley leads the NDP to defeat(and it's looking more and more like she will)it will be because-with the exception of things like the farmworkers legislation and the measures to protect LGBTQ kids and their straight student allies-she has assumed that she has to carry on the "Alberta against the world" tradition-a choice which led her to irreporably damage her party's chances of holding power by raging against the rest the NDP on the pipeline issue and her arrogant refusal to to acknowledge even the basic validity of the Leap Manifesto, a concept with which she might have engaged by proposing, say, a compromise which would have pushed the timeline for the transition from fossil fuels from 20 years to 40.   Had she done that, and were she running a re-election campaign centered on presenting and defending the solid progressive achievements of her government, Notley would likely be neck-and-neck with Kenney and have a good chance of beating him.  

Notley might have done slightly better if she had emphasized her government's accomplishments more, but with the economic recession still hurting the economy and the Cons united in a single party, it was all but guaranteed that she was going to lose.

On the other hand, abandoning any pretense of dealing with the global climate change existential crisis by proposing a forty year period of adjustment means abandoning environmental principles in the hopes of winning a few more votes that are highly unlikely to come the NDP's way since those who do not see the crisis are not likely to be won over by this 'compromise'. Such a 'compromise' would definitely shift votes away from the NDP.

If wildfires burning down a large part of Fort McMurray, the record wildfires that drove 65,000 from their homes for up to two months in BC in 2017, the new record wildfires set in BC in 2018 that burned the equivalent of 40% of Nova Scotia, the warnings that it is already too late to save the Arctic as we know it, and even the warnings today from the head of  the Bank of England and the Bank of France  that a “massive reallocation of capital” is necessary to prevent global warming above the 2°C maximum target" and “If some companies and industries fail to adjust to this new world, they will fail to exist,” (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/17/mark-carney-tells-gl...), doesn't convince you that 40 year plans are dead, I don't know what will. We face desertification in western Canada as rainfall decreases, evaporation increases with temperatures, and runoff from disappearing glaciers disappear, to say nothing of the similar risks to the billions in India, China and the rest of the Himalayan glacier countries dependent on glacial water, as well as sea level rise that not only threatens many island nations but coastal cities around the world where a large part of the globe's population lives. Canada, which has the world's longest coast, already is facing enormous risk. Even a BC Liberal government report determined that Metro Vancouver will need to spend $9.5 billion to protect it. Sea level rise is also having an impact right now on PEI's, New Brunswick's and Nova Scotia's coast that will only get much worse. Protecting New York City alone is estimated to cost $100 billion.

"If warming is not mitigated and follows the RCP8.5 sea level rise projections, the global annual flood costs without adaptation will increase to $14 trillion per year for a median sea level rise of 0.86m, and up to $27 trillion per year for 1.8m. This would account for 2.8 per cent of global GDP in 2100." (https://phys.org/news/2018-07-sea-world-trillion-year.html) I haven't even touched on many of the global warming problems that place the world in peril since that would take too long. 

We need a Green New Deal that combines social policy with combatting global warming and we need it now. 

Last week Norway's Labor Party withdrew its support for Arctic oil exploration producing a majority of the legislature favouring this (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-08/norway-is-walking-awa...). China is aiming to become the renewable energy superpower. It already has 29% of renewable energy patents and last year had 45% of new renewable energy investment. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2019/01/11/china-renewable-en...) Even Even Saudi Arabia is making major investments in preparing for life after oil.(https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/saudi-arabia-prepa...)

There are two possible futures: the world shifts fast enough to avoid catastrophic global climate change or we don't. If we don't, you won't have to worry about social policy. If the world does avoid the worst case scenario while Canada continues on with the getting the last drop out of the tar sands mentality, which NDP candidate Linda McQuaig criticized in the last election and was ostracized for both inside and outside the party, then Canada and Alberta is in danger of becoming a leader in what will be the new buggy whip industry. 

Even in the US change is occurring quickly. Coal is dying as an industry despite Trump because it is too expensive. Renewables are becoming increasingly cost competitive, even with natural gas. Furthermore, there is growing evidence that methane gas (which has more than 25 times the heating effect of carbon dioxide) emissions from natural gas development are much higher than previously thought. 

For around 10 years, the conventional wisdom in the energy sector has been that natural gas is ascendant. Coal is dirty, and it’s getting expensive, but it’s too early to jump all the way to renewable energy. To get from the fossil fuel present to the renewable future, we will need ... a bridge.

Natural gas is meant to be that bridge, a way to reduce our emissions relative to coal while we work on scaling up renewables. (The shift from coal to gas is a big part of why US emissions have declined over the past few years.) ...

 Recent forecasts suggest that it may be cheaper to build new renewables+storage than to continue operating existing natural gas plants by 2035. 

That means natural gas plants built today could be rendered uncompetitive well before their rated lifespan. They could become “stranded assets,” saddling utility ratepayers and investors with the costs of premature decommissioning.

Meanwhile, gas’s environmental reputation has suffered from a series of reports, most recently a study in Science, showing that gas’s lifecycle methane emissions are much higher than previously estimated and could seriously dent gas’s climate advantage over coal. (See author and activist Bill McKibben for an extensive exploration of this point.)

According to the consultancy Lazard, the all-in, “levelized cost of energy” (LCOE) from some renewables is already lower than the LCOE of a lot of fossil fuels in many cases, even without subsidies and without environmental benefits factored in. Wind is the cheapest energy of all, and utility-scale solar is competitive with the cheapest natural gas.

In the Midwest, wind is cheapest. In the Southwest, solar is cheapest. As costs continue to fall, areas where renewables beat new CCGT will grow and spread.

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/7/13/17551878/natural-ga...

Swedish teenage environmental activist Greta Thunberg holds up a sign as Pope Francis greets her at the end of his weekly general audience, in St. Peter's Square, at the Vatican. AP

Greta Thunberg met the Pope, who thanked her for her work on climate change, in Rome while she was there to lead a student strike for climate change . 

Teenage climate change activist Greta Thunberg met the pope in Rome Wednesday ahead of a youth rally against climate change this week.

Thunberg, 16, met Pope Francis at the end of his weekly audience in St Peter's Square, shaking hands with the pontiff and showing him a banner adorned with the slogan "Join the Climate Strike."

"The Holy Father thanked and encouraged Greta Thunberg for her commitment in defense of the environment, and in turn Greta, who had requested the meeting, thanked the Holy Father for his great commitment in defense of creation," the director of the Holy See Press Office, Alessandro Gisotti, told reporters about the meeting Wednesday morning in the Vatican.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/teen-climate-change-activist-greta-...

Great Thunberg, in an address to the EU Parliament, also criticized it for its failure to deal with climate change. 

A day earlier, Thunberg urged European Union leaders to "panic" about climate change, as she addressed a committee of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France.

She went on to condemn politicians for spending their time "arguing about taxes or Brexit" in the face of a building climate crisis.

Thunberg, whose sit-ins outside the Swedish parliament inspired students worldwide to hold school strikes demanding climate action, spoke to a "packed" room of EU politicians, according to the AFP news agency.

"Our house is falling apart, and our leaders need to start acting accordingly," Thunberg said. "If our house was falling apart, our leaders wouldn't go on like you do today. You would change almost every part of your behavior, as you do in an emergency. If our house was falling apart, you wouldn't hold three emergency Brexit summits, and no emergency summit regarding the breakdown of the climate and environment," she added, to applause from the committee.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/17/europe/greta-thunberg-pope-eu-brexit-scli...
 

ETA: In Quebec, rapid warming associated with climate change has brought extensive flooding, part of the new reality. The Quebec government has introduced new emergency compensation rules that reflect this reality that include much more money to relocate than to rebuild in the same place, where flooding is likely to occur relatively soon due to global warming.

The provincial government announced Friday it has asked for federal assistance in order to “mitigate the consequences as much as possible.”

A woman looks at the Chaudière River as a flooded car sits in the foreground on Tuesday, April 16, 2019, in Beauceville. JACQUES BOISSINOT / THE CANADIAN PRESS

Rivers across the province are being monitored closely and authorities say they fear water levels over the weekend could rise as high as they did in the spring of 2017, when thousands of homes were flooded around the Montreal area.

Flooding will get worse, professor says

Jason Thistlethwaite, professor of environment and business at the University of Waterloo, said Quebecers can expect flooding to get worse because climate change is making winter temperatures more volatile. Sudden waves of warm weather followed by quick drops in temperatures increase the risk of ice accumulating on the rivers in the winter, he said. The ice jams act as a dam, holding back water, and when the ice begins to melt and move, the dam bursts. ...

That's exactly what happened in Beauceville this week, when an ice jam broke and water rushed through downtown, flooding at least 230 buildings in the small town south of Quebec City. Across Quebec, prime locations are often by a river or lake. Restaurants and tourist areas boast of a view of the water. But Thistlethwaite said Quebec might want to adopt a practice known as "making room for the river.'' ...

Instead of looking at the shoreline as high-priced property on which to build, Quebecers should consider returning these areas to nature and turning them into parks, summer sporting facilities or public land, he said.

The provincial government's new compensation program for flood victims is in line with this approach, Thistlethwaite said. The new rules announced on April 15 limit total compensation for victims of recurring floods to 50 per cent of a home's value, or a maximum of $100,000. Once damage exceeds that amount, people can no longer claim compensation for that home, but they can receive up to $200,000 to relocate to an area outside the flood zone. ...

The new rules, Thistlethwaite said, are "very progressive of the government of Quebec, and they should be emulated across Canada.''

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebecers-rethink-relationship-w...

One hundred environmentalists, climate scientists, business owners and executives have signed a letter advocating that climate change be the central issue of the fall federal election with a campaign that focuses on more than carbon taxes. 

A large group of Canadian climate scientists, environment advocates, business owners and corporate executives want climate change to be the No. 1 issue for voters this fall, including problems and solutions beyond the federal carbon tax. A hundred of them signed an open letter to Canadians this week, urging them to understand the impacts of climate change and the solutions each party offers before casting their ballots in October.

Those behind the letter fear important discussions about climate change are being lost in the sea of political rhetoric for or against a national carbon price. “It’s a national emergency,” said Gavin Pitchford, the CEO of recruiting firm Delta Management and executive director of Clean50. ...

Pitchford said Canadians need to be better informed about both climate-change impacts and the possible responses that will prevent catastrophic changes to the planet.

“Science clearly tells us that is not true, that in fact temperatures should actually have been decreasing each century over the past 6,000 years,” the letter-writers say. “Instead, temperatures have risen steadily, and the five hottest years ever recorded have been the last five years. Climate change is real — and by both burning too many carbon based fuels — and cutting down the trees needed to absorb that carbon, humans are responsible.”

Merran Smith, executive director of Clean Energy Canada, says the political fight about the federal Liberals’ carbon tax has become a distraction from the message Canadians should be getting: that climate change is the key issue of our time.

She said if this election is not about stopping climate change, Canada and the world will suffer immensely.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2019/04/23/climate-change-should-be-...