Jody Wilson-Raybould & Jane Philpott: Where do they go politically from here?

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Pondering

Paladin1 wrote:

Pondering wrote:
We shouldn't sell armoured cars to Saudi Arabia.

While I agree we shouldn't, those are seperate issues.

You think bribes weren't paid to Saudi princes to get that contract? 

JKR

Paladin1 wrote:

I agree that anyone guilty of breaking the laws should be punished properly up to and including being barred from doing business in Lybia or Alberta.

You're response to me is basically saying it's okay to break the law because everyone does it. I don't buy that.

As Mr Magoo pointed out in one breath you're saying all the bad apples are gone. In the next you're pointing out how they'll go on breaking the law.  Obviously the half decade of reconstruction didn't mean anything.

How do we do business in countries were illegal bribery is the norm? Easy, we don't.

If Scheer becomes PM business as usual will continue but under a government with much more expertise at favouring the wealthy and economic elites.

Pondering

Yes the SNC Lavalin executive in Canada has been replaced and they will not be paying bribes. Yes, bribes will be paid somehow in the countries that demand them or SNC won't get the business. Do you believe otherwise?

Paladin1

Pondering wrote:

Paladin1 wrote:

Pondering wrote:
We shouldn't sell armoured cars to Saudi Arabia.

While I agree we shouldn't, those are seperate issues.

You think bribes weren't paid to Saudi princes to get that contract? 

Not really. Saudi Princes have more money than they know what to do with it so I can't really see General Dynamics buying them off to land a contract. The LAV vehicles are top of the line armored vehicles, very plausable reasons why KSA wanted them.

If there's proof of bribery then yes absolutely nail General Dynamics.

Pondering

I want bribery to stop. The only way I see that happening is if the people who pay bribes go to prison. If people are so bound and determined to have the innocent pay then fine. Let it happen. Maybe then someone will care that the actual people who do these things are laughing all the way to the bank.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

pondering wrote:
I've read that JWR should have reported to the ethics commissioner in September. I am not sure that I agree with that but it would be impossible to even discuss the matter here because that would be construed as attacking JWR which results in everyone blindly chanting Trudeau Guilty as if I had said otherwise.

JWR might have been able to handle the situation differently than she did. I say might because trying to raise the alarm about the issue earlier may have led Trudeau to demote her earlier.

Nothing that JWR did made it justifyable for Trudeau to demote her from A-G, or to expel her from the Liberal caucus.

Pondering

Left Turn wrote:

pondering wrote:
I've read that JWR should have reported to the ethics commissioner in September. I am not sure that I agree with that but it would be impossible to even discuss the matter here because that would be construed as attacking JWR which results in everyone blindly chanting Trudeau Guilty as if I had said otherwise.

JWR might have been able to handle the situation differently than she did. I say might because trying to raise the alarm about the issue earlier may have led Trudeau to demote her earlier.

Nothing that JWR did made it justifyable for Trudeau to demote her from A-G, or to expel her from the Liberal caucus.

Correct. Trudeau is guilty. Trudeau is guilty and most likely broke the law regardless of whether or not we have actual proof of it. Trudeau is guilty of inappropriately pressuring JWR through the use of staff. That is, not just the staff are guilty, Trudeau himself is guilty. Can we agree that Trudeau's guilt is firmly established?  That is, say we discover that JWR is an ax murderer. Would that make Trudeau innocent? NO Trudeau would still be guilty of removing her in order to put a AG in place that would give SCN-Lavalin a DPA. (Although that wasn't illegal, the only illegal part was pressuring JWR)

https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/who-may-have-broken-the-law-in-the-snc-lavalin-affair/

Given all we now know, Wilson-Raybould should have disclosed publicly that she was being pressured as soon as it happened last fall, and reported it to the ethics commissioner and the RCMP. That she didn’t go public shows the inherent conflict of interest the attorney general is in because he or she is a politician and member of cabinet.

Does that mean Trudeau is innocent!  NOOOOO Trudeau is guilty. 

I disagree that JWR should have reported in September. At that point in time I don't believe the pressure she reported at that time necessarily rose to that level. 

****Do we agree that Trudeau was speaking through staff in order to try to maintain plausible deniability even though he is guilty? ****

Misfit Misfit's picture

Pondering wrote:

Misfit wrote:

Pondering wrote:

”For example, if I ask the question "why didn't JWR complain directly to Trudeau after September?" “

How do you know that she didn’t and many times??? You were not working in the AG office and you were not working in the PMO. You are assuming far too much. No one can debate one who resorts to hypothetical assumptions. And yet you are using this imaginary issue to attack JWR.

Because she testified that that was the last conversation she had with Trudeau directly about SNC. I very much doubt she left anything out when testifying to the committee. I suppose it is possible they spoke on other issues but if so and she failed to speak to him about the inappropriate actions of his staff that suggests she didn't consider it that serious at the time. For that reason I assumed the last time she had an opportunity was in September or she would have mentioned it to the committee. 

It isn't an attack on JWR. It is an attack on Trudeau or more specifically how PMOs are run. Apparently the PMO is much larger than in the past. 

This is from JWR's letter to caucus before she was ejected:

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/04/02/jody-wilson-raybould-caucus-letter_a_23704984/

We committed to break old and cynical patterns of centralizing power in the hands of a few unelected staffers, the marginalization of hundreds of Members of Parliament with expertise and insights to offer, and the practice of governing in the shadows, out of sight of Canadians. 

This is an issue JWR herself recognized but not one that she priorized.  GASP, OH MY GOD was that a criticism! Man the ramparts! TRUDEAU IS GUILTY. TRUDEAU IS GUILTY. TRUDEAU IS GUILTY. 

Serious discussion of events is impossible when politics is treated like a team sport that requires cheerleading for your side so no criticism can be acknowledged. JWR has been sanctified. Her every move is perfection itself. She is the one Holy Liberal in the history of Liberals. 

pondering,

he was told in September! Yet he harassed her through his staff. He only needed to be informed once.

you cheerlead for Trudeau better than anyone I know.

prople seeing an injustice against JWR does not make anyone a cheerleader, only you for Justin Trudeau.

Pondering

Misfit wrote:

pondering,

he was told in September! Yet he harassed her through his staff. He only needed to be informed once.

you cheerlead for Trudeau better than anyone I know.

prople seeing an injustice against JWR does not make anyone a cheerleader, only you for Justin Trudeau.

How is that in any way shape or form a defence of Trudeau. He is GUILTY. Trudeau is as GUILTY as it is possible for him to be. 

Do you not think it is also the responsibility of a Prime Minister to speak with his ministers individually more often than once every 5 months?  Is Trudeau acquainted with his other ministers or are they all practically strangers? 

cco

The impression I get, backed up by details from this scandal, is that all communications go Trudeau -> PMO or PCO -> Cabinet. Ministers get their marching orders and carry them out. It's not a dialogue.

NorthReport

They have been so quiet for awhile now, so what could Jody & Jane be up to, eh?

Pondering

cco wrote:
The impression I get, backed up by details from this scandal, is that all communications go Trudeau -> PMO or PCO -> Cabinet. Ministers get their marching orders and carry them out. It's not a dialogue.

Exactly. I really don't think that Trudeau is running the government. Unelected PMO staffers and civil servants are directing cabinet instead of cabinet directing civil servants and staffers. Wernick "worked for" both Harper and Trudeau. 

NorthReport

Is she running - stay tuned

JWR plans to 'tell all' if gag order lifted

 

https://torontosun.com/news/national/kinsella-jwr-plans-to-tell-all-if-gag-order-lifted

bekayne

If she wasn't going to run for the Conservatives, why contact the Toronto Sun?

Pondering

There has been no gag order. JWR won't speak in the house where she is protected, and has zero respect for cabinet confidentiality. I am beginning to think she was the source of the original leak at least indirectly. 

She has already said that the Conservative party is out of the question and I believe her on that. She has too much integrity to join a racist party. I'm guessing Green. 

Debater

JWR may have overplayed her hand.

Doing an interveiw with the right-wing Sun chain, and with someone as disgraceful as Warren Kinsella, is not going to help her get the support of the Liberal/NDP/Green voters she needs.

Pondering

Most swing voters aren't that aware. I think her reputation is fully intact with the public. She would be a feather in the cap of the Greens or NDP. It just occured to me she would make a great senator. 

swallow swallow's picture

Debater, do you think no one should speak with the Sun newspapers? 

Is there a problem of some sort with Kinsella? Isn't he a prominent Liberal of some sort? 

Debater

Kinsella used to be an adviser to Jean Chretien when he was Prime Minister, but he's rather right-wing and has a very controversial reputation nowadays, and an admitted personal grudge against Justin Trudeau & Gerald Butts.

As for Wilson-Raybould, she appears to be a right-winger herself.  As has been revealed in recent months, she apparently pushed Trudeau to appoint a right-wing judge to the Supreme Court, plus as Justice Minister she was rather conservative in how she handled decriminalizing marijuana, her reluctant work on the right-to-die legislation, and so on.

That's why she's not really the progressive hero that some people are looking for.

voice of the damned

Debater wrote:

JWR may have overplayed her hand.

Doing an interveiw with the right-wing Sun chain, and with someone as disgraceful as Warren Kinsella, is not going to help her get the support of the Liberal/NDP/Green voters she needs.

I'd be very surprised if the average Liberal/NDP/Green voter knows who Kinsella is, much less that he's considered right-wing. He's the kind of guy who's known to political junkies, and that's about it. 

And among those who do know him, a lot of them will just associated him with a) the Liberal Party, and b) anti-racism campaigning. Both of which, to mainstream voters, are gonna sound like sterling progressive credentials.

The Sun might be more recognized for being right-wing, but even then, I don't think a lot of people are gonna connect that with any particular ideological leanings on JWR or Kinsella's part. The Sun has always had a small minority of left-leaning writers, and people who know that Kinsella works for them will probably just think he's another dissenting voice at the paper.  

 

 

NorthReport

Very well said votd.

If Jody decides to run again, I think she will get re-elected in Granville

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Kinsella

Pondering

It won't affect the general voting public but I think this is about actual progressives acting like JWR is a progressive hero for calling out Trudeau. 

Debater

CBC News Alerts‏

MPs Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott will make announcements about their political futures from their respective ridings on Monday.

https://twitter.com/CBCAlerts/status/1132020393223499776

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

I'm guessing Greens.

Pondering

I think so too but I am really turned off by the "to be continued" announcements. Everyone does it so it isn't particular to JWR and Philpott I just find it annoying. If they have something to announce just spit it out. 

brookmere

I don't think anyone could win Markham-Stouffville for the Greens. They polled under 2% last time and the riding has a large contingent of Asian ethnicities who are unreceptive to the GP. The NDP vote last time, which the Greens would have to pick up to be competitive, was only 6%.  I think even if Philpott were running again as a Liberal the Conservatives would win.

Vancouver-Granville is another story, particularly given that last time the NDP finished second and the Conservatives third.

lombardimax@hot...

Where JWR and JP land depends on their motivations. Back in 2015, they were “sucked in” by a fake progressive; third party leader with growth potential; with deep covert support from the political and economic establishment. If they will return to the fake progressive they will go Green. For a third party leader they will go NDP; for the establishment they will go Tory. 

Pondering

There is no way on earth JWR would go Tory. I think Green because May made a lot of noises about discussions with them. I know they are friends but I find it a little weird that they are acting as a unit. In my opinion if JWR goes either Green or NDP she is positioned for eventual party leader. (she can learn French)

Misfit Misfit's picture

I think they are going to announce their retirement and sit out this election.

robbie_dee

Misfit wrote:

I think they are going to announce their retirement and sit out this election.

I agree.

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

If retirement, why the suspense?

Misfit Misfit's picture

One is a lawyer and the other a doctor. They have established careers outside politics and politics has proven to be such a reduction. Why even  bother?!

JeffWells

IMO it should be obvious by now they're running Green. And it's symptomatic of partisans in deep denial to think this will be of little consequence.

I've seen a lot of comments from Liberals and New Democrats that fall just shy of calling the two drama queens. That's not just disrespectful; it also misses by magnitudes the impact this will have on Canadian politics. And that miss is not by accident. It's anxiety.

As problematic as the Canadian Green Party is, thanks to the Liberals and the NDP it now has a wide-open lane. IMO it could elect more MPs in October than the NDP with a smaller percentage of the popular vote. Though it's far from clear it will even trail in that respect.

If I haven't convinced you, maybe this might shake you out of your denial:

 

"According to one source, a former NDP candidate in Montreal has told friends that if Wilson-Raybould and Philpott join the Greens they will switch parties. A former NDP MP from Quebec has also told friends she would consider such a move if Wilson-Raybould and Philpott join the Greens.

"Ricochet spoke to another former NDP candidate in Montreal, who did not want to be named but indicated she was seriously considering switching parties as well, citing dissatisfaction with the NDP’s climate policies.

"None of those defections may actually come to pass, but that they are being considered is indicative of the extent to which the NDP and Green Party share a political constituency with similar priorities. If the NDP fail to represent those priorities, a newly invigorated Green Party stands waiting in the wings."

https://ricochet.media/en/2631/are-jody-wilson-raybould-and-jane-philpot...

Pondering

The NDP's failure to embrace environmentalism is rooted in a blind false devotion to worker interests rather than to the 99%. 

I hope that the NDP executive is paying attention and understanding the writing on the wall. 

lombardimax@hot...

Since they have both bent over backwards to still call themselves “L” Liberals, it would be amazing if they don’t join the Liberal B Team aka Green Party of Canada.

lombardimax@hot...

Pondering, if you don’t see workers interests and the 99% as interchangeable, then why are you posting here. Are there no Liberal/Green discussion groups left?

Pondering

lombardimax@hotmail.com wrote:

Pondering, if you don’t see workers interests and the 99% as interchangeable, then why are you posting here. Are there no Liberal/Green discussion groups left?

They are not interchangable. When the NDP says workers they don't mean all workers. To be in the top 1% as an income earner in 2014 you had to make about $225,100 in Canada.

$71,700. is the median income. So a two income family pulling in 300K combined is part of the average within the 99%. 

I use the term 99% loosely. Aiming at the 80 or 85% would be fine. Really the NDP is mostly limited to aiming at about 70 to 80% right off the bat because social conservatives and libertarians are probably a lost cause. 

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-630-x/11-630-x2016009-eng.htm

https://careers.workopolis.com/advice/how-much-canadians-are-earning-by-province/

I post here because I enjoy political discussion. It helps me to develop my own thinking. Forces me to question my beliefs. I learn about countless things. I learn about guns and wars and Venezuela; topics I don't think I would have explored were it not for this place. 

I take advantage of what I can learn from the people here. I don't think the reverse is true. There is such deep disrespect for the average person on this board, my opinion only of course. 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The NDP is infected with an extraction mindset. It comes from its history when industrial workers in places like Windsor, Sudbury and Oshawa and BC's coastal forest regions with pulp and paper mills and loggers and miners voted to send NDP MP's to Ottawa to speak for their interests. Those areas never led to any great seat count but they were the party's base. Those areas are in decline now and the majority of Canadians live in cities and over a third in one of the three big metropolitan areas. Very few young urbanites are dreaming of a career in the tar sands or on a fracking crew.

A trades person can earn a living in Fort Mac destroying the planet for good wages or they could earn a living building infrastructure to a Net Zero standard in every community in the country, starting with getting as many public buildings off of petroleum based heating as possible.

Ciabatta2

JeffWells wrote:

IMO it should be obvious by now they're running Green. And it's symptomatic of partisans in deep denial to think this will be of little consequence.

Absolutely. It made sense for them to wait and see how the by-election would play out. They'll be Greens, and it is probably the best choice for both their ideology, electability and their careers.

cco
NorthReport

When they first stepped down, May was asked about JWR joining the Greens, and the humble Green leader stated that JWR would make a good Minister of Justice in May's cabinet.  

The Greens need some new leadership.

lombardimax@hot...

CBC just reported that JWR and JP are Not going Green. And Paul Manly is now being slammed for 911 conspiracy comments. It looks like the Greens already peaked earlier today.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Well I was wrong. I am in a way disappointed because she has much less to accomplish as an independent. I wish her the best. 

robbie_dee

Well, I could see Wilson-Raybould at least winning her seat as an indendent. Philpott I don't know, but I'd assume running as an independent is better than any of her alternatives. I'd guess the strategy here for both of them is to try to hold their seats, and then try to get back into the Liberal caucus if Trudeau loses.

Debater

I don't think they have a future in the Liberal Party after the damage they have inflicted on their own party.  It's not just Trudeau who dislikes them -- the majority of their own caucus mates wanted them ejected.

Their opportunism and constant need for atention has also turned off a lot of the progressive voters they will need.  They have ended up helping the Conservatives.

JKR

They still might have a significant role to play if the Liberals find themselves just 1 or 2 seats shy of an operating majority.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
And Paul Manly is now being slammed for 911 conspiracy comments.

When Doug Henning's "Natural Law Party" folded, I think its supporters "yogic flew" to the Greens.  I don't think the majority of Green voters necessarily believe in the power of crystals, or alien abductions, or chemtrails, but it does seem that if a voter believes in them, the Greens are their party of choice.

robbie_dee

Debater wrote:

I don't think they have a future in the Liberal Party after the damage they have inflicted on their own party.  It's not just Trudeau who dislikes them -- the majority of their own caucus mates wanted them ejected.

Their opportunism and constant need for atention has also turned off a lot of the progressive voters they will need.  They have ended up helping the Conservatives.

I don't doubt that this is the current feeling of many Liberals, but another narrative is that far from being opportunists these two stood up for an important principle at great personal cost. Outside of the Liberal bubble this is what a lot of voters believe, and IMO it happens to be a lot closer to the truth.

As another poster pointed out above, if the next election returns a minority parliament two independents suddenly may have a heck of a lot of leverage. In any case, given the disparity between how Liberals may see things vs. how voters at large do, it might well serve the Liberal Party's overall interest for other caucus members to bury their hard feelings and welcome JWR & Philpott back at some future date when Trudeau as well as Butts are both gone, and they can take the blame for this fiasco with them.

Debater

There are many Canadians who are getting tired of the publicity antics of the Jody & Jane show.  You can see lots of people posting about it on Twitter right now -- it's not just Liberals.

I'm just glad they're not joining the Greens since I'm voting Green this year and I think they would detract from the party.

Debater

Wilson-Raybould, Philpott face long odds as Independents - but not impossible ones

Only one-third of incumbent MPs running as Independents after leaving their parties have been successful

Éric Grenier · May 27, 2019

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/grenier-jwr-philpott-independents-1.5151165

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