2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Election

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jerrym

My point was quite simple. Considering what she was handed in becoming leader of the party six weeks election call after a lot of party infighting, she ran a good campaign, including doing a good job in the debates. Can things be turned around under these circumstances in terms or winning a couple of ridings in such a short time period? As I said, I don't know.

I also suspect Ball quickly called the election despite having a supposed fixed election date in October because he knew things would not be getting better for him during the interim to October. It may be good for winning this election but I suspect things may be getting worse for people in the province over the coming months. If all signs pointed to things getting better for the province and the Liberals him personally, I doubt very much he would have called this election now. Of course, we've seen such a picture many times before with many parties. 

Aristotleded24

Hey Stockholm, nice to see you again! Where have you been?

Aristotleded24

Newfoundlander_Labradorian wrote:
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the NDP hold the two seats they have now and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them wiped out. I don’t know which outcome would be better for the party.

At least holding the 2 seats they have along with neither party winning a majority. Unfortunately the second criterion is out of the NDP's hands, and it seems that Newfoundland and Labrador always has a large swing in one directon or the other whenever a government changes.

robbie_dee

Early results: as of 910 pm NT Liberals leading or elected In 22 ridings, PCs leading or elected in 15. Two independents have been elected. Jim Dinning from he NDP has been elected St. John's Centre but Alison Coffin is behind former ND (now Liberal) George Murphy by 46 votes in St. John's East - Quidi Vidi.

Policywonk

robbie_dee wrote:
Early results: as of 910 pm NT Liberals leading or elected In 22 ridings, PCs leading or elected in 15. Two independents have been elected. Jim Dinning from he NDP has been elected St. John's Centre but Alison Coffin is behind former ND (now Liberal) George Murphy by 46 votes in St. John's East - Quidi Vidi.

Now she's ahead by 146 votes. Liberals have been declared elected overall.  The NDP apparently won Labrador West by 5 votes as well.

robbie_dee

UPDATE Jordan Brown just won Labrador! Popular vote for NDP looks ugly (around 5 percent) but if Coffin holds on and the PCs flip one or more seats where the Liberals are leading all of a sudden things get very interesting. Liberals currently leading or elected in exactly the 21 seats they need for a bare majority.

Aristotleded24

robbie_dee wrote:
UPDATE Jordan Brown just won Labrador! Popular vote for NDP looks ugly (around 5 percent) but if Coffin holds on and the PCs flip one or more seats where the Liberals are leading all of a sudden things get very interesting. Liberals currently leading or elected in exactly the 21 seats they need for a bare majority.

Like I say, geography is everyting (and I don't just say that because that was my major in University). The cratering in the popular vote is a direct result of not being able to field candidates. They managed to elect 3 candidates, with a slate more than half empty, a newly elected leader, and a snap election designed to catch them off guard. Now it looks like they may have sway in a minority Parliament. If they did this well with the hand they were dealt this time around, imagine how the NDP is gonig to do next time.

Overall good night. Congratulations to Allison Coffin and her team.

Policywonk

Policywonk wrote:

robbie_dee wrote:
Early results: as of 910 pm NT Liberals leading or elected In 22 ridings, PCs leading or elected in 15. Two independents have been elected. Jim Dinning from he NDP has been elected St. John's Centre but Alison Coffin is behind former ND (now Liberal) George Murphy by 46 votes in St. John's East - Quidi Vidi.

Now she's ahead by 146 votes. Liberals have been declared elected overall.  The NDP apparently won Labrador West by 5 votes as well.

And declared elected by 580 votes. All in all a better than expected performance by the NDP and it looks like a minority, depending on the one seat the Conservatives lead in.

robbie_dee

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Like I say, geography is everyting (and I don't just say that because that was my major in University). The cratering in the popular vote is a direct result of not being able to field candidates. They managed to elect 3 candidates, with a slate more than half empty, a newly elected leader, and a snap election designed to catch them off guard. Now it looks like they may have sway in a minority Parliament. If they did this well with the hand they were dealt this time around, imagine how the NDP is gonig to do next time.

Overall good night. Congratulations to Allison Coffin and her team.

Still waiting on the Lib-PC race in Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans, and I’m sure there will be a recount in Labrador West. But I have to agree the NDP played a bad hand really well here, and as it turns out got just about the best possible result. If they end up sharing the balance of power with Joyce and Lane they could have a lot of leverage in the next Assembly, provided that with a brand new team in place they can put the past infighting behind them.

 

Policywonk

robbie_dee wrote:
UPDATE Jordan Brown just won Labrador! Popular vote for NDP looks ugly (around 5 percent) but if Coffin holds on and the PCs flip one or more seats where the Liberals are leading all of a sudden things get very interesting. Liberals currently leading or elected in exactly the 21 seats they need for a bare majority.

It looks ugly because they didn't run in more than half of the seats. Minority confirmed pending recount(s).

robbie_dee

Policywonk wrote:

robbie_dee wrote:
UPDATE Jordan Brown just won Labrador! Popular vote for NDP looks ugly (around 5 percent) but if Coffin holds on and the PCs flip one or more seats where the Liberals are leading all of a sudden things get very interesting. Liberals currently leading or elected in exactly the 21 seats they need for a bare majority.

It looks ugly because they didn't run in more than half of the seats. Minority confirmed pending recount(s).

I’d love to know where the NDP vote went in ridings where the Party didn’t field a candidate. NL PCs ran much further to the left than their counterparts typically do in other provinces. If ND voters helped push any PC candidates ahead of the Liberals this ended up working out amazingly well for them.

Aristotleded24

I will let a very well-known Newfoundland and Labrador artist give advice to the new legislature and let them have the final word:

Quote:
They said they'd stop the fighting, and they said they would bring peace. And they said they'd find a serum that can cure all our disease. And they said they'd house the homeless, and put black and white in tune. And they said they'd feed a hungry child and I hope it's someday soon.

WWWTT

I’ve read this thread for some time now but abstained from commenting because of lack of knowledge/ignorance. 

Sounds like the NL NDP dropped the ball here. If they were able to run a candidate in every riding, it’s plausible that they could be sitting with a half dozen seats and an even more impressive leverage in legislature. But it’s probably not fair of me to be a harsh critic. 

An increase in seats with a minority government is positive news! 

Newfoundland and Labrador in my opinion is probably the most underrated Canadian province. Kropotkin and I both know what the most overrated province is. 

Perhaps NL will be the NDP’s new beach head?

swallow swallow's picture

WWWTT wrote:

Newfoundland and Labrador in my opinion is probably the most underrated Canadian province. Kropotkin and I both know what the most overrated province is. 

Ontario! 

An interesting election in that the NDP outperformed expectations and is being called the real winner by several media sources. Voters seem to have punished a cynical early-election call. 

An intersting election also in that there seems to be no real provincial Green party - this ain't New Brunswick or BC, clearly. 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

swallow wrote:

WWWTT wrote:

Newfoundland and Labrador in my opinion is probably the most underrated Canadian province. Kropotkin and I both know what the most overrated province is. 

Ontario!

I think WWWTT is referring to PEI given our conversation about its over representation in the H of C. Ontario is the Center of the Universe so how could it possibly be overrated?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

kropotkin1951 wrote:

swallow wrote:

WWWTT wrote:

Newfoundland and Labrador in my opinion is probably the most underrated Canadian province. Kropotkin and I both know what the most overrated province is. 

Ontario!

I think WWWTT is referring to PEI given our conversation about its over representation in the H of C. Ontario is the Center of the Universe so how could it possibly be overrated?

All Hail The Great Potato God-Empress, Anne Augusta Avonlea The First!

swallow swallow's picture

Yes I got that he is referring to P.E.I. But c’mon, Ontario is totally the most over-rated. 

jerrym

My observations on the election:

Coffin won her seat and a chance for the NDP during the TV debate by showing she was a fighter when she continually pointed out the weaknesses in Ball's arguments. 

Even if the NDP does not win the Labrador riding in a recount, it is good position there for the next election. Coffin also says her next job is to build strong riding associations throughout the province, so she has set her mind on the right task. 

The polite Crosbie who Ball stepped all over during the debates is gone and now seems ready to attack Ball at every turn, no doubt smelling blood in what now looks like a minority government, but I suspect also because of the way Ball was so condescending towards him during the debates. The Ball government has a lot of problems to deal with, only one of which is the sky high economic and environmental costs of Muskrat Falls. 

Despite having the strongest projected economic growth by far of all of the provinces in 2019, the Ball Liberals barely hung onto power. In December 2018 Newfoundland was projected to have 5.2% GDP economic growth, with BC next at 2.7%, according to the Conference Board of Canada's Provincial Outlook. (https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/newfoundland-and-labrador-to-have-...)

Clearly, in Newfoundland, as is occurring in much of the rest of the world, many people do not feel they are sharing or about to share in this growth or in economic security. Our GDP models fail to capture income, social and justice inequality, to say nothing of failing to measure at all the environmental costs associated with economic growth, of which the Muskrat Falls fiasco (https://thenarwhal.ca/a-reckoning-for-muskrat-falls/) is but one of far too numerous examples here and elsewhere around the globe, to say nothing of its environmental problems (https://www.citynews1130.com/2018/04/11/muskrat-falls-report-recommends-...). 

We need to start looking at better indicators of economic costs and benefits, such as GPI (Genuine Progress Indicator) that measure social and environmental consequences, not just economic. 

The calculation of GPI presented in the simplified form is the following:

GPI = A + B - C - D + I

A is income weighted private consumption

B is value of non-market services generating welfare

C is private defensive cost of natural deterioration

D is cost of deterioration of nature and natural resources

I is increase in capital stock and balance of international trade

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genuine_progress_indicator

Pondering

Good post. No amount of announcing how great the economy is doing will convince people who can see they can't afford what they used to and young people who can't get a steady well-paying job. 

Newfoundlander_...

Amazing the difference a few hours could make. I was talking to people on Election Day who still felt the NDP could be wiped out and that their best chance was St. John’s Centre. I heard from some who hoped Dinn would get elected and not Coffin so that it’d be easier for him to take over the party. However, now she’s in the strongest position of any leader after defying the odds and winning three seats. 

While it doesn’t look good to only field 14 candidates, the fact is the party wasn’t going to be winning any of the 26 seats they didn’t run in. 

I noticed from some of the polls that the NDP were still maintaining their vote overall provincially. And despite getting half the support they achieved in 2015 they largely held their support in districts they ran. 

Dinn and Coffin actually lost support, but not enough to cost them those seats. In Labrador West Brown was able to gain a couple of hundred votes to cause an upset. I had heard there was discontent with the Liberal MHA, and minister, but the seat wasn’t thought to be in play, especially after the PCs struggled to get a candidate in the district. They couldn’t even get a local candidate, and in the end that probably helped the NDP. I suspect a stronger PC candidate may have caused more of a split among those looking for an alternative to the Liberals and led to them winning that seat. 

When you look at the results from the districts they ran candidates they largely kept their support from 2015. Now in many of them their support was very small but they still kept it. In Waterford Valley they saw a big jump in support. Coffin ran here in 2015 and got 19%, this week they got 31%. The PCs weren’t able to get a candidate in this district, which is held by the finance minister, and most of that vote went to the NDP. 

Someone mentioned above that they may have won more seats if they had more candidates but that’s extremely unlikely. They’re just not a factor in many of them and when you look at the results from this week the NDP did well by maintaining their vote. Having resources freed up by not fielding a full slate probably helped Brown win in Labrador West. He was probably able to get additional money from the party that otherwise might not have been available. 

Now is the time for the hard work. Like leaders before her, Coffin has vowed to build the party and start district associations across the province. We’ll have to wait and see if that finally happens. The party has previously put in little work in between elections, which is why getting just 14 candidates happens.  If Coffin can change that they might become a factor.     

jerrym

Here's the latest information on when the West Labrador recount will happen. NDP candidate Jordan Brown pulled out a surprising five vote victory on election day over a cabinet minister.

There are signs that the judicial recount for Labrador West will happen June 19-21. The Supreme Court Docket in St. John’s has listed dates for an application between Chief Electoral Officer Bruce Chaulk and NDP candidate Jordan Brown on June 4, 19, 20 and 21. The NDP say they have not been formally told anything yet, but they expect there will be a hearing to set dates on June 4, and the recount will happen June 19-21. Brown defeated Liberal cabinet minister Graham Letto by just five votes, and the recount could determine whether there is a minority or majority government.

http://ntv.ca/docket-lists-potential-dates-for-labrador-west-judicial-re...

 

robbie_dee

Every vote counts!

robbie_dee

NTV: First hearing for recount coming Tuesday (VIDEO)

NL Chief Electoral Officer Bruce Chaulk interviewed and explains the process well.

jerrym

Jordan Brown, who won Labrador West by five votes and whose election is subject to a recount, has gone to St. John's to observe the legislature from its gallery while he awaits the results of the recount. The following url includes a video of Brown and NDP leader Coffin talking about this. 

http://ntv.ca/jordan-brown-arrives-in-st-johns-to-observe-house-as-he-aw...

robbie_dee
jerrym

The above article notes that while Jordan Brown won the recount by 2 votes, the Liberal lawyer said it was too early to say whether the Liberals would launch a court appeal. Since who won in this riding determines whether the Liberals form a majority or minority government, there is obviously a strong incentive for the Liberals to launch an appeal.

Does anyone know whether an appeal would mean that Brown could not take the Labrador West seat in the legislature until all appeals are heard, as was the case in Al Franken's narrow win in Minnesota in 2008?

Appeals in that situation meant Franken could not take his seat for six months, which played a role in delaying the Democrats' Obamacare bill. Such a situation would even further incentivize Liberals launching all appeals.

In any case, Coffin showed in the televised election debate and during the campaign that she is a fighter who is capable of articulating her views forcefully, thereby helping the NDP win three ridings when many were thinking, even on the election night TV broadcast, that they could be wiped out. 

bekayne

jerrym wrote:

The above article notes that while Jordan Brown won the recount by 2 votes, the Liberal lawyer said it was too early to say whether the Liberals would launch a court appeal. Since who won in this riding determines whether the Liberals form a majority or minority government, there is obviously a strong incentive for the Liberals to launch an appeal.

Does anyone know whether an appeal would mean that Brown could not take the Labrador West seat in the legislature until all appeals are heard, as was the case in Al Franken's narrow win in Minnesota in 2008?

In Canada, there have been cases where the result was declared void and a byelection was held. Labrador South in the 1972 Newfoundland election, and York North in the 1988 Federal election (both candidates actually sat in the House during the year and a half litigation.)

robbie_dee

I haven’t reviewed the statute or anything like that, but the articles i’ve read all seem to imply that Brown can now take his seat and that would make sense. The result, while very close, is now final. Barring some kind of injunction I would assume that Brown would be entitled to sit, and perhaps more importantly, his constituents would be entitled to representation in the legislature even if an appeal is pending. Also suspect that since adjudicating the disputed ballots would generally be judgment calls, an appellate judge would not substitute his or her judgment for that of the sitting recount judge unless there was a legal error or abuse of discretion. Again have not actually researched this though just trying to think it through.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

If an appeal of this result were to succeed in the courts, would the result be another recount, or would a by-election be called?

robbie_dee

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