2019 Polls

Aristotleded24 wrote:

"Shaking in their boots" means that Singh and the NDP understand these trends and are quite worried. I don't think that is the case, and I don't think they perceive the problem. Remember, these are the same people who were clapping, cheering, and smiling on national TV as the federal NDp was experiencing the worst ever loss of seats in its history.

Are they actually the same people though?

That is great news but Legault isn't reacting to climate change or the students. He is a money man. Electricity is Quebec's gold.  It is in our best interests to encourage rapid transition. 

Well now that SNC is going on to a criminal trial, the headlines from it should be at their peak in October

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2019/05/29/judge-rules-snc-lavalin-headed-to-trial/

I wouldnt be surprised but it only delays the inevitable and keeps it in the news

Pondering wrote:

That is great news but Legault isn't reacting to climate change or the students. He is a money man. Electricity is Quebec's gold.  It is in our best interests to encourage rapid transition. 

As I said above it makes both economic and environmental sense for Quebec to shift from fossil fuels to hydroelectricity. Yet this was not acted upon by the previous Liberal government or proposed by Legault during the election. However, it also makes political sense as people become increasingly concerned about climate change to have use of both perspectives in making the announcement. 

Lots of new data from Abacus today. Here's some of it, with more at the link below:

LIBERALS AND CONSERVATIVES NECK AND NECK AS GREENS RISE TO 12%

CURRENT VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held tomorrow, 33% say they would vote Liberal, 32% Conservative, 16% NDP, and 12% Green. These numbers suggest some softening of Conservative support over the month, some strengthening of the Green Party, and an ongoing weak trend for the NDP. Today, the NDP trails the Green party in BC, Saskatchewan & Manitoba, and Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, where the NDP won 25% of the vote and 16 seats in 2015, the party is polling at 10% only two points ahead of the Greens and 34 points behind the Liberals.

We now see a pretty tight four-way race in BC, with the Liberals at 29%, the Conservatives at 28%, the Green Party at 18%, the NDP at 17% and the People’s Party with a notable 6%. The Greens appear to be eating into NDP support.

In Ontario, the Liberals have a 3-point edge over the Conservatives (33% to 30%), with the NDP back at 22% and the Greens at 12%. The People’s Party is at 2%. Compared to our last wave, this is a weakening of Conservative support and strengthening of Green Party and NDP support.

In Quebec, the Liberals are well ahead at 44% with the Conservatives at 21%, the Bloc at 14%, NDP at 10%, the Greens at 8%, the People’s Party at 1%. Compared to our last wave, this is a 10-point improvement for the Liberals.

In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives have the edge (34%) over the Liberals (31%), with the Greens at 15%, the NDP at 11% and the People’s Party at 6%. These numbers reflect a big drop for the Liberals, a softening for the NDP, and strengthening of Conservative and Green Party support in the region. In 2015, the Liberal Party swept all 32 seats in Atlantic Canada, beating the Conservatives by 40 points in the popular vote.

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

When asked which of the party leaders they would prefer to see as Prime Minister after the next election, 33% picked Justin Trudeau, 30% Andrew Scheer, 19% Elizabeth May, 12% Jagmeet Singh, and 6% Max Bernier. This is a slight 3-point decline for Andrew Scheer, and a 5-point increase for Elizabeth May, who now polls better than the NDP leader in every region of the country on this question.

https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-and-conservatives-neck-and-neck-as-greens...

So according to that, Vancouver Granville is a close race between Wilson-Raybould and the new Liberal candidate.

Wilson-Raybould  -- 32%

Liberals -- 29%

Conservatives -- 20%

Greens - 10%

NDP - 8%

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/jody-wilson-raybould-has-the-lead-over-trudeaus-liberals/

I also suspect that the Greens will decline to run a candidate against JWR so she will get the best of both worlds.

Debater wrote:

According to May, they will run a Green candidate against JWR (& Philpott), but it will not be a strong candidate.

Or something like that.

Do you have a link to May saying that?

Ok Debater that link you posted doesn’t work for me but thanks. Here’s the one I found
https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/a-mistake-elizabeth-may-disappoin...
Ya that’s a real odd position May has?

laine lowe wrote:

I feel bad for the Green candidates being so openly treated like cannon fodder by their leader.

Yes, it's cringeworthy to imagine the campaign manager in the Green Party HQ, giving a pep talk to the troops as they prepare to go out and knock on doors. "Just remember, people, our objective in this election is to lose while helping the independent candidate if possible." That might be bad for morale.

Michael Moriarity wrote:

laine lowe wrote:

I feel bad for the Green candidates being so openly treated like cannon fodder by their leader.

Yes, it's cringeworthy to imagine the campaign manager in the Green Party HQ, giving a pep talk to the troops as they prepare to go out and knock on doors. "Just remember, people, our objective in this election is to lose while helping the independent candidate if possible." That might be bad for morale.

This is also symptomatic of what most observers have said for years, she is a one person show not a political party. Imagine a membership driven organization where its leader openly offers the crown to an outsider because apparently no one in the federal Green party is good for anything. The good thing is if May is right in her assessment of her fellow Greens it should be easy finding dud candidates.

Michael Moriarity wrote:

laine lowe wrote:

I feel bad for the Green candidates being so openly treated like cannon fodder by their leader.

Yes, it's cringeworthy to imagine the campaign manager in the Green Party HQ, giving a pep talk to the troops as they prepare to go out and knock on doors. "Just remember, people, our objective in this election is to lose while helping the independent candidate if possible." That might be bad for morale.

I can remember when she said something to the effect that people should vote Liberal in certain ridings if that helps to defeat the Conservatives. It made me feel bad for the poor Green candidates in those ridings, knowing that that was the dynamic but still running to offer voters a different option, making all the required sacrifices to run for public office, and being told on the doorstep, "yeah, I like what you stand for but I gotta vote Liberal to stop the Conservatives." Terrible to undermine your team like that.

If she doesn't want to run a Green candidate in that riding that is one thing (that should be done in consultation with local members). But yeah, make up your mind. Either run a full campaign with the intention of winning, or back off entirely.

Before that, her background was with Mulroney's Tories.

.

NorthReport wrote:

https://cra.ca/federal-liberals-and-conservatives-in-statistical-tie-in-atlantic-canada-ahead-of-2019-election-while-green-party-support-rises/

An interesting quote from this article:

For the first time ever, the federal Green Party has surpassed the New Democratic Party in decided support in this region. Support for the Greens has more than doubled over the past three months, reaching 14% (up from 5% in May 2018 and 6% in February). NDP support stands at 9% (down from 15% and 11%).

“The federal NDP is struggling to maintain its position as the third party of choice in Atlantic Canada, and findings suggest they could be replaced by the Greens as the main alternative to the Liberals or Conservatives,”

It will be interesting to see whether the Greens can maintain those numbers in Atlantic Canada.  Presumably it is as a result of their success at the provincial level.

It could make it more difficult for Jack Harris to have a comeback in Newfoundland, or for the NDP to have another chance at Acadie-Bathhurst in New Brunswick.

If I remember correctly, someone here mentioned this election is Mays last go as leader. So perhaps there may be no need to overthrow May. 

However, if she changes her mind in November, and there’s 6-12 new green MPs, I seriously doubt she would be able to stop it. 

Same goes for foreign policy. 

Anyways, she’s a fucking hypocrite. On one hand, she goes to great lengths to squash any opposition she faces in her party, then she goes on national tv to promote independent MPs???

Clearly she’d be the worst PM Canada has ever had. By for some idiotic odd reason, she’s polling ahead of Jag?

Thanks for posting the Markham poll, Mighty Middle.

Eric Grenier suggested today that the Markham-Stouffville poll is one of several signs that the Conservatives may be losing ground in Ontario (eg. because of Ford's declining approval, etc.).  With Philpott running as an Independent, the Cons should easily be in 1st in that riding, and yet the Liberals are in 1st so far.

https://twitter.com/EricGrenierCBC/status/1136620069742632960

Frank Graves of EKOS said today that Ford is hurting Scheer in Ontario:

Most significant shift has been a clear/steady decline of CPC support in Ontario. The CPC have gone from a comfortable lead to clearly trailing. Probably a net shift of over 30 seats from their column; the trend seems to be continuing . Doug Ford has become Justin Trudeau's BFF

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1138249621300568064

And Forum has the NDP and Greens in a tie at 13% each! Is this a federal first?

34% Conservative

30% Liberal

13% NDP

13% Green

6% BQ

4% PPC

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2019/06/11/canadian-voters-give...

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2019/06/14/liberal-bleeding-after-snc-lavalin-affair-seems-to-have-stopped-leger-poll/#.XQOv4SUTGEf

In this poll Ipsos has deliberately omitted the Green Party as an option, so respondents who want to select Green as their choice cannot do so. Their reasoning is that by offering  the option to select "Green" exaggerates their support!

Do people agree with what Ipsos has done by stripping away the Green Party from this poll?

NorthReport wrote:

Is this a disaster in the making for the Trudeau Liberals?

Only 32% of Canadians think Trudeau deserves re-election

https://globalnews.ca/news/5382141/ipsos-poll-justin-trudeau-reelection-tories/

It's interesting. I have long said that answers to polls this far ahead are not actual voting intentions. Many people are just sending a message. They know they are not voting. Voting Green is a good way of indicating to the other parties that the environment is important. 

It seems Ipso is just picking up on that. Voters will move back to the traditional parties. It would be interesting to ask those Green voters what their second choice is.