Forum Research poll out this morning has wide Conservative lead ( 43-29-17-10) but surprising seat projection giving Cons a one seat majority. (29-22-5-1)
Such a seat forecast might have been more realistic a decade ago, when the Tories seemed to need a lead of at least 10-12% to form government (remember an NDP majority of 17 in 2011 with a lead of only 2.5%), but I doubt that now. The distribution of votes still helps the NDP, but not nearly to that degree anymore. A PC lead of 4% or so should suffice to give them an overall majority.
My own guess is PCs 35 (43%), NDP 20 (31%), Lib 2 (16%); let's say a margin of +/- 2 MLAs and 1.5% of the vote.