A growing number of issues are creating transparency and credibility problems for the Liberals. I will discuss these issues and the problems they create for the Liberals in subsequent posts. However, first of all, I will take a look at the evidence of the impact of the Trudeau brown- and black-face pictures and video, on the polls.
On Power and Politics today pollsters Shashi Kurl of Angus Reid, Leger's Christian Borque and CBC's Eric Grenier talked about the impact of the Trudeau brown- and black-face scandal on the polls. Kurl reported that there has a 3% increase in NDP support and 2% increase in Green support in the polls, which she described as marginal but significant. Eric Grenier said this has happened across the polls, suggesting that, although the change is small, the finding across the polls suggests that it is true. Kurl noted that the impact is overwhelmingly among young voters disillusioned by the pictures and video with Trudeau. The decrease in Liberal support has given the Cons a 5% margin over the Liberals, although Conservative support itself has not increased. The Cons are at 35%, Liberals 30%, NDP 15% and Greens 11% in the Angus Reid poll.
Kurl noted that, although the decrease in Liberal support is small, major damage could come later if this becomes seen as part of a pattern of Trudeau errors in judgement. She said that the cumulative effect of perceived errors, such as the India trip, Aga Khan, and SNC Lavalin etc., and possibly more errors as the campaign goes on, could be significant. Eric Grenier noted that while 90% of voters said that the brown/blackface scandal would make no difference in their voting choices, he pointed out that in a close race the 10% who said it could impact their vote could have a major impact. Grenier stated that the small decrease in Liberal support in Ontario may cost the Liberals a few seats while in Quebec a few more may be lost to the Bloc with the current numbers.
Christian Borque said that only 6% of Quebec voters said that the scandal could affect their vote costing the Liberals some votes and would likely mostly benefit the Bloc, although in a small manner.
Kurl noted that there has been a growing tendency of more voters to make their final voting decisions later and later in the campaign, usually after the last debate, so significant changes could still happen. Borque and Grenier agreed.
Trudeau had 18 years to reveal his brown/blackface performances and get this out of the way. The fact that he kept it hidden instead of being transparent has added to his credibility problems. However, Trudeau's and the Liberals' transparency and credibility problems also apply to much of their platform based on what they do/don't reveal and their past record.