The Impending Trudeau-Scheer Grand Coalition?

The pipeline will go through with the support of the Liberals and the Conservatives together if need be

https://www.thestar.com/amp/politics/political-opinion/2019/10/04/every-party-needs-to-win-in-battleground-bc.html?__twitter_impression=true

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Misfit wrote:

What about no one work together and we have a new election next spring?

That will hand Scheer a majority.

Maybe but not certain.

I do not see any grand coalition however I also do not see a Conservative minority budget or Throne Speech being defeated in the House because the Liberals would vote for them. Canadians don't like to go to the polls too often and unless the Conservatives prove to be far dumber than Harper's governments those documents will be crafted with poison pills embedded, leaving them ready made election issues crafted to allow them to run from their strengths.

kropotkin1951 wrote:

I do not see any grand coalition however I also do not see a Conservative minority budget or Throne Speech being defeated in the House because the Liberals would vote for them. Canadians don't like to go to the polls too often and unless the Conservatives prove to be far dumber than Harper's governments those documents will be crafted with poison pills embedded, leaving them ready made election issues crafted to allow them to run from their strengths.

I do not see Liberals voting for a Conservative budget - this seems to be a very partisan opinion. Why would they? If they abstain it passes and no election. What possible reason would there be for the Liberals to vote for a Conservative budget that does not need their support to pass? this is why the Liberals and Conservatives can have a pact more easily -- they do not have to vote for each other's budgets to assure passage. Pacts with smaller parties require direct on-record support.

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Sean please read my posts carefully before you reply. I don't want to get into a dispute with you but frankly my post is specifically talking about a Conservative minority. How do you think Harper ruled this country for so long with a minority? Sometimes he got the Liberals to support him and sometimes he got the NDP or Bloc to support him and he even got everyone except Bill Siskay to vote for a law that was a clear breach of Charter Rights, because they were all afraid to run against the Conservatives on the issue of getting tough on crime. That is the kind of strategy that we have seen in the past so why do you think it is not going to happen again if the Conservatives get a minority?

You are harsh on this board frequently. You should hold yourself to the same standard you frequently shove down other people's throats.

I read you clearly - you are talking about Liberals voting for a Conservative budget. I am saying there is no reason to think they would need to if it would pass without their help. Exceptionally the Liberals could do it to avoid an election but that is not the point you made -- the NDP could as well for the same reason. They would not naturally be inclined to vote for the CPC on a budget if abstention did not create an election. 

.

I hope all Canadians realize this is what is coming. The Liberals will never ever work with the NDP!!!

NorthReport wrote:

I hope all Canadians realize this is what is coming. The Liberals will never ever work with the NDP!!!

I disagree as I explained above. These two parties are really well positioned to blame each other and blackmail each other over who would be blamed for a new election or the CPC coming to power if they have the means to stop that.

There is a great possibility that we could see some surprising combinations of caretaker government due to finances and political threats. Additionally if Trudeau stepped down the Liberals - if they had a majority with the NDP - would certainly try to change leaders with a stable arrangement. The NDP would go along while trying to fundraise. The price for each party may not be that high.

The NDP would demand a freeze on pipelines and some movement to PR - but that could be just a study or perhaps a  referendum. The Liberals could try to make a deal with the CPC to save the pipeline and if such a deal could not exist blame the CPC for making it impossible and postpone the pipeline during a brief term with the NDP while agreeing to allow noises about PR without a final committment. Due to finances and leadership both parties would compromise.

Same can be said for the CPC. The CPC could agree to a LPC government while they change leaders (then Trudeau might stay) in exchange for building a pipeline.

The reason a party might agree to work with the Liberals will be due to the ability the Liberals have to make the dal with the other party and make them wear it. The political threat here is big enough that the price on all sides could be quite low.

NorthReport wrote:

This:  The Impending Trudeau-Scheer Grand Coalition thread  is the best place to discuss what's coming down the pipes, because there is no question this is what is coming, and the NDP are going to be cut completely out of any of the decision-making process. It is only when the NDP gets a majority government will they have any say in Ottawa.

How many times did the Liberals vote with Harper when he had a minority government. Was it 100 times? Was it 200 times? The Liberals voted to support Harper so often we stopped counting. Those who don't remember history will find themselves destined to repeating it.

Please don't fall for the right-wing Liberal and Conservative lies.

Our political system, just like our economic system, is rigged against Canadian working people, students, seniors, the poor, the homeless,  tenants, caregivers, grocery store clerks, and visible minorites including Indigenous Peoples. We all know it, so let's do something about it, because we can.

You are making my point with your question. I disagree with the suggestion that the Liberals had any love for Harper or have any now.

You can see times when the Liberals made sure Harper was not defeated becuase they feared an election. It is not a grand coalition we should be concerned about but rather a party tolerant of a bad government becuase they lack the leader or finances to run a campaign. It does not take a coalition among the main parties to avoid an election.

Please let's not pretend that the NDP could not be in this situation as well as the Liberals.

The NDP has also declined to vote down a government it disagreed with becuase it was afraid of electoral losses.

We are stronger when we are less hypocritical.

NorthReport wrote:

You make good points Sean however the reality is we could have defeated the Harper government and the Liberals bailed, and saved the Harper government.

And the rest was history as they say!

Apart from Jack Layton not forming an NDP government, and then dying on us, it was my biggest Canadian federal political disappointment.

You are forgetting that while the NDP clammoured for an election that the Liberals prevented many times there were a couple times the NDP avoided did the same. I remember so many Liberals screaming at the NDP hypocrisy when the NDP had been slamming the Liberals for the same thing. I am not sure if I can find the dates. Both cases were about political support levels and not money.

ETA: I tried to find the date of this but googling would not work as there are so many references to when the Liberals bailed on the deal with the NDP and BQ and of course the many times the Liberals choose to prevent an election. I do know there were at least two votes in the Harper era where the NDP backed away becuase it was too low in the polls though. I think the BQ also one time declined but I do not remember the rationale. It was discussed here at length.

I think North Report is an overly exuberent NDP supporter but at times I think he does harm in the enthusiasm.

I have been accused of being a Liberal for doing the opposite -- demanding that the NDP live to the same standards that we want others to. I have been angry with the NDP and even considered not supporting it but I always ended up supporting it (I have voted already this time). 

I do believe in having a balanced basis even if your advocacy follows.

Majority, minority and coalition governments -- Karl Nerenberg looks ahead to Monday

This election is a nail biter. Will it be a minority government? Which party will have the most seats? What kinds of deals are going to be going down as the parties make their power plays to be the one who will lead our country. And, since it's looking like it won't be a majority government, which parties are positioning themselves to be king-makers?  There are many questions and there won't be an answer until Monday. And maybe not a clear answer until later than that. 

Things are changing so quickly that we're posting this podcast a bit early -- this conversation with rabble parliamentary reporter Karl Nerenberg was held on Tuesday, October 15. With the speed things are moving, this is one interview which shouldn't sit on the shelf. Because it might all change by tomorrow.

Image: Ishmael Daro/Flickr 

2019 FEDERAL ELECTION

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http://www.rabble.ca/podcasts/shows/rabble-radio/2019/10/majority-minority-and-coalition-governments-karl-nerenberg-looks

Charlie nails it.

As long as Liberals are allowed to get away with calling themselves progressive, the right-wing Liberals and the right-wing Conservatives will continue to control Canada both politically and economically.

Jagmeet Singh won't support the Conservatives, but could Liberals prop up an Andrew Scheer minority government?

2 of 4

• If the Governor General Julie Payette invites Andrew Scheer to form a government, the public shouldn't rule out the possibility of him looking to the Liberal benches to keep him in power.ANDREW SCHEER

Unless the Liberals pull off a stunning rebound in the next few days, Canada may end up with a minority government.

To date, there's been a great deal of speculation over which party—the Conservatives or the Liberals—will receive the support of either the NDP, Greens, or Bloc Québécois.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has been unequivocal: he will not help Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer become prime minister. 

But as support for the Liberals and Conservatives has waned over the campaign, there's one other possibility that no one has suggested.

And that's whether the Conservatives and Liberals could end up in bed together in defiance of the other parties.

They have more in common than they often let on, including:

* both parties support the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion;

* both parties are comfortable with doctor-assisted-death legislation that falls far short of what the Supreme Court of Canada mandated;

* both parties support mandatory minimum sentences;

* both parties support a law that criminalizes the sale of sex;

* both parties are adamantly opposed to creating a safe supply to prevent illicit-drug overdoses;

* both parties support trade agreements that allow investors to sue governments;

* both parties support cash payments to parents rather than creating a national childcare program;

* both parties support appealing a Canadian Human Rights Tribunal decision that would give billions of dollars to Indigenous children and youth and their families;

* both parties support a complete ban on cannabis marketing, notwithstanding its negative impact on a billion-dollar Canadian industry;

* both parties oppose taxing wealthy people's assets;

* and both parties oppose a guaranteed basic income.

There are differences, such as over a carbon tax, gun control, public support for arts and culture, financial support for the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, timelines for infrastructure spending, refugee policies, progressivity of the tax system, and the magnitude of government deficits.

But there are also many points upon which the Liberals and Conservatives agree. As the NDP pivots left under Singh and the Greens zero in on the climate crisis, the two traditional ruling parties have more reasons to work together in the future.

Journalists covering the election campaign rarely point this out.

If Liberals fare badly in the election, it could cost Justin Trudeau the leadership of his party.

ADAM SCOTTI/PMO

Trudeau irks right wingers

So why can't the two parties get along? Part of it is personality-based.

Conservative supporters often despise Justin Trudeau, whom they sometimes deride as "Sock Boy". They see him as a privileged kid who became prime minister on the popularity of his surname.

Many Conservatives also think that Liberals have no principles.

And Liberals look upon many Conservatives as being out of step on LGBT rights and failing to understand how Canada is enriched by its diversity.

It's a cultural divide.

But the ideological split wasn't nearly so great when Paul Martin led the Liberals. Nor would it be if Ralph Goodale or Marc Garneau were to become interim Liberal leader after an election.

So, could the Liberals support the Conservatives, or vice versa, in a minority Parliament?

All you have to do is look at the last minority Parliament.

From 2009 to 2011, the Liberals under Michael Ignatieff and with Goodale and Garneau in key caucus positions repeatedly propped up the Stephen Harper government.

There was no coalition, not even a confidence and supply agreement.

But Harper knew that Ignatieff wasn't going to collude with the NDP and the Bloc on a nonconfidence motion.

In 2011, the NDP campaign highlighted that Ignatieff "did not show up for two-thirds of the key confidence votes" in the previous year.

In this 2011 election ad, the NDP highlighted how Liberals kept Conservatives in power.

Leadership races take time

Today, it's hard to see the Liberals and the Conservatives helping one another out as long as Trudeau is leader.

But should he fare poorly in this election and the party ends up in a civil war over who should succeed him, all bets are off.

Under these circumstances, the Liberals could very well end up propping up a Conservative minority government until a new leader is chosen. And that could take at least a year or more.

The same is true if the knives come out in the Conservative party for Scheer, should he fare badly on October 21.

The Conservatives won't want to bring down a Liberal minority government until their new leader is in place. 

Keep in mind that it took two years for the NDP to elect its new leader after the 2015 election debacle under Tom Mulcair.

Christy Clark had the support of federal Liberals and Kevin Falcon had the support of federal Conservatives when they competed for the leadership of the B.C. Liberals in 2011.

STEPHEN HUI

B.C. shows how it can be done

It's not as if federal Conservatives and federal Liberals haven't worked well together in the past.

In B.C., federal Conservatives and federal Liberals have maintained a partnership for 25 years under the umbrella of the B.C. Liberal Party.

Many B.C. Liberals are supporting the Trudeau government.

One former B.C. Liberal cabinet minister, Joyce Murray, is a member of the Trudeau cabinet. Another former B.C. Liberal cabinet minister, Terry Lake, is a federal Liberal candidate.

Other B.C. Liberals, like former finance minister Kevin Falcon, are publicly backing the Conservatives. Another former B.C. Liberal MLA, Marc Dalton, is a Conservative candidate.

If Murray and Falcon could reach agreement at the B.C. cabinet table and if Lake and Dalton could forge consensus in the B.C. Liberal caucus, why couldn't the same thing happen federally?

Of course, it could.

But suggesting that the Conservatives and Liberals are not really that different from one another goes against the grain of political discourse in this country.

That's why you won't hear it raised on all those political panels that are popping up on radio and television.

https://www.straight.com/news/1314311/jagmeet-singh-wont-support-conservatives-could-liberals-prop-andrew-scheer-minority

Even if Too Close To Call's forecast of a combined Lib-NDP 176 seats (170 required for majority), the right-wing Liberals will continue to govern supported by the right-wing Conservatives, and the NDP will be completely cut out of the decision-making process. You can take prediction to the bank.

Now bear in mind that TCTC's forecast of 42 seats for the NDP is based on 18.5% support for the NDP. The last 10 polls gave the NDP 18.9% support, and the 5 most recent polls gave the NDP 19.5% support. 

Right and the Liberals did not vote 100s of times to keep Harper in power!

A blatant denial of recent Canadian history.

This election right-wing Liberals and Conservatives not fooling quite so many Canadians this time. 

As far as B.C. is concerned no one could have forecast the stupidity of Christy Clark’s negotiating tactics when the election results came in

Some people have the courage to put their forecasts out there. Some others just sit around and take pot shots at them.

Oops!

Those who ignore history will find it often gets repeated

https://mobile.twitter.com/bradlavigne/status/1184463590704717824

In the real world, instead of some make believe world, on Monday nite, the voter's input into anything ends. 

What has changed amongst the Liberals and Conservatives not to support each other again, just like they did hundreds of times when Harper was in power? Basically not much difference. You can support a party in different ways. You can abstain, you can be sick, and you can vote for their legislation, etc. But we are getting ahead of ourselves, as we do not yet know the election results. Probably the only thing different this time is that Trudeau will be like Harper when he had his minority government, and Trudeau will be supported by the Conservatives, just the way the Liberals supported the Harper Conservatives.

Given the very recent history of Liberals propping up a minority Conservative govts it's very weird that Trudeau not ruling out allowing a PM Scheer isn't getting more play. Jagmeet Singh's the only one being clear about preventing a Conservative-led govt.

https://twitter.com/derrickokeefe/status/1185336366638362624

What’s appears to be dead is the Liberal majority 

Maybe Canadians are just waking up to the fact the Liberals aren’t in it for them, eh!

jerrym wrote:

brookmere wrote:

Scheer has made it abundantly clear that if the Cons win the most seats he will consider that a victory and himself the rightful PM.

Scheer, as a former Speaker, knows this is false.

Of course he knows this is false. It's part of his strategy to portray an NDP-supported continuation of the Liberal government as some sort of coup. Again, that's why you are not going to see the Cons prop up a minority Liberal government, as someone else thinks will happen.

This thread didn't age well with the Trudeau-Singh Grand Coalition.