2019 polls 3

No I don't think a LPC majority is in the cards but I also disagree with those who think the CPC will get more seats than the LPC.

There is a possibility that could explain a shift to LPC recently though: Many here take for granted that everyone is on a left right continuum. There are many who are unhappy with Trudeau who are not. The youngest demographic in some polls was tilting Conservative a few weeks ago. With Singh gaining among young anti-Liberals the NDP may be taking that support from Conservative leaning anti Trudeau voters. The number of times Scheer and Conservatives were caught out with lies may also have caught up to them resulting in some feeling that the Liberals are not worse or considering the NDP. Again this is some loss for Conservatives. Any benefit going to Bernier becuase of the Scheer project to win him down could be significant in the last days as well. Conservatives and Bernier supporters share similar social media ecosystems. Given the closeness of the vote for the Conservatives, a loss of a point to the NDP among youth, a point to the Liberals among those who were thinking of voting ethically and conclude that they are all dirty thanks to Scheer, and a point to Bernier for the last minute scandal could be enough to take Scheer out of the equation in a raft of close seats.

People who are NDP supporters are really, really, angry about the broken promise on electoral reform. This could make a lot stay away from the Liberals until the last moment when it comes to strategic voting but a few at the last moment could contemplete with some horror a Conservative government or MP. I could imagine some at the last moment switching -  like the 0.5% drop the NDP is seeming to have.

The Liberals probably do not have the larger numbers of strategic voters but they may have a number who go over in seats where the NDP is really far behind and it is a Liberal Conservative tight race. Considered local strategic voting could be going on right now where people have waited to the last moment and the NDP vote could go up where they are in contention and down where they are not. Becuase the NDP is in contention in fewer seats this could mean a net loss of 0.5% overall but an actual increase in seats as some goes to them where they really need it.

Left Turn wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

josh wrote:

Abacus:

LPC 34

CPC 32

NDP 16

Bloc 8

GPC 8

PPC 2

https://abacusdata.ca/final-abacus-2019-canada-election-poll/

 

There's no good reason for NDP support to be beginning to slip at the end.  None.

Some people make the decision to vote "strategically" at the 11th hour, and will indicate a non-strategic voting intention to pollsters prior to that point.

Heck, some people make a "strategic" vote in the privacy of the voting booth, having fully intended to make a non-strategic vote when they left the house.

Absolutely. That strategy may not be common to all. there may be Conservatives going NDP to drop a liberal seat in LPC-NDP contests, some NDP going Liberal where the NDP are out of it. Some Liberals going NDP where the Liberals are out if it. The net would be a slight drop of votes but maybe more seats for both the NDP and LPC.

Final Campaign Research:

https://www.campaignresearch.ca/single-post/Canadians-will-choose-a-Minority-Government

brookmere wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

There's no good reason for NDP support to be beginning to slip at the end.  None.

There doesn't have to be a good reason, just a reason. Obama's endorsement could move a couple of % of voters, as could Scheer's Trumpian claims about why he should be PM whatever Parliament thinks.

Perhaps the polls are trying to sway public opinion rather than reflect it.  

Final Mainstreet has Liberals and Conservatives tied at 32 with NDP at 18.

A Conservative plurality is possible tomorrow, though unlikely, while a Liberal plurality is very likely,” concluded Maggi. “A Liberal majority remains possible, though at least as unlikely as a Conservative plurality.”

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/minority-government-most-likely-scenario-cpc-32-lpc-32-ndp-18-green-6/

New Resarch Co. (first since Sept 26)

Lib 32 (-4) / Con 31 (-2) / NDP 19 (+4) / BQ  7 (+2) / GPC  8 (-1) / PPC  2 (-)

https://researchco.ca/2019/10/20/elxn43-canada-final-poll/

Think the Greens will win Frederiction?

bekayne wrote:

New EKOS:

Lib 34.2 (+3.2) / Con 30.0 (-2.5) / NDP 18.3 (+0.7) / GPC  8.1 (+0.2) / BQ  5.0 (-0.5) / PPC  4.0 (+0.4)

Weird regionals.

https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2019/10/liberals-headed-to-form-government/

 

I hope this poll is wrong

And finally, Sunday-only Nanos:

Con 32.5 (+1.0) / Lib 31.7 (+0.7) / NDP 20.8 (+2.0) / BQ  7.2 (+0.2) / GPC  6.0 (-3.5) / PPC  1.5 (-0.3)

Compared to what was being said about Jagmeet here and in the media, it appears the NDP Leader is hitting a home run, and perhaps even a grand slam, in the closing days of Canada's 43rd election campaign. This does show the power of Liberal's absurd talking points, unless they are continually challenged, and their lies exposed for what they really are.

Final EPP prediction:

Liberals 145

Cons 120

Bloc 37

NDP 32

GPC 3

PPC 1

https://www.electionprediction.org/2019_fed/index.php

Final TCTC projection:

Liberals 129

Conservatives 129

NDP 38

Bloc 37

Greens 3

PPC 1

Ind 1

https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2019/10/final-projections-for-canada-2019.html

Firum seat projection:

LPC: 140

CPC: 111

Bloc: 48

NDP: 38

Greens: 1

https://twitter.com/PollWatchCanada/status/1186242500492775424