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Ya, how about the Russian rouble?
Because if our deeply integrated economy goes down with interest rate hikes, those foreign-owned and controlled energy companies in AB could decide to shelve oil sands production for a while.
I have a certain optimism that Canada is decoupling on a complete economic platform basis, even if our trading dynamic is dependent on our southern cousins at present. The old saw that when the US sneezes Canada comes down with pneumonia is based more on insecurity in certain Canadian circles than on today's reality.
Canada stands on the cusp of greatness, held back only by the timidity of its chattering classes. Sir Wilfred Laurier just got the centuries mixed up.
Given the latest oil inventory reports, the likelihood of understatement of demand and overstatement of supply for political purposes and the scrabble to get out of the USD while simultaniously voicing unqualified support for it, there is little likelihood of any abandonment of petroplays in safe jurisdictions.
Speaking of the rouble, the Russian currency could have a bright future were it not for the fact that dear Vladimir has a penchant for hanging on to one end of it. [img]biggrin.gif" border="0[/img]
Why take a chance on playing rough with the bear when the timid titmouse in Alberta is begging for a decent rogering?
I think if Canadian dollars were to become a hot prospect, there has to be demand for them combined with economic growth. And with our Central Bank taregting two percent inflation, I don't think economic expansion in Canada will increase much above the two to three percent rates we've been used to since the 1980's. More economic activity in Canada would mean more demand for the dollar, more businesses needing capital, and global money speculators hopping on for the ride, but I don't think the Canadian economy will be surging ahead at Russia's Keynesian expansion rates of 7% and 8%, and never mind China's growth rates anytime soon.
Very little of the multi-billion dollar oil and gas profits hemorrhaging from Canada every year are reinvested back into the country for R&D or new businesses, or new infrastructure etc. Canada is a good place to extract money and invest for the purpose of controlling interest in money-makers like oil and gas, but there isn't much in the way of long-term investment. Like old Diefenbaker giving an entire aerospace industry to the U.S. with Avro Arrow, today Alberta is losing out on a whole petrochemical refinery industry when they allow oil sands to be shipped south for processing in the U.S. Yes they've ridden us mighty hard over the years. Put in the least to extract the most, and they've had a lot out of Alberta over time. Not a lot to show for it in Canada though except a $130 billion dollar infrastructure deficit across the country and lowest growth rates in our largest provincial econmomy. I'd love to see a Canadian economic boom. We have everything we need to be a self-sufficient economy.
Is that a question or a stump speech?
The Bank of Canada backed off an interest rate cut for the supposed reason that inflation in Canada is lower than expected but I'm guessing that the real reason is a concerted effort by central bankers to keep their powder dry to fight another day.
I'm sure that central Canada wants an interest rate cut to prop up an unhealthy manufacturing sector and the rest of the country can tolerate the cut because the effects of a rate cut will NOT filter down to the little folks anyway due to liquidity constraints from derivatives exposure.
The real problem is that contrary to the outright lies that the 'worst is over', the worst is still ahead as more toxic loans reset when bank balance sheets are weakened from previous losses.
Concerted effort is required to avert a credit collapse and interest cuts are being saved for the magic moment.
[ 11 June 2008: Message edited by: jester ]
Patience, grasshopper.
The Cando is the dog of Forex traders. Reaction is mixed between doom and gloomers predicting a Canadian recession and blue sky proponents of a surging Canadian commodities run.
When the reality of the US predicament becomes part of the public consciousness, the USD will sink and the Cando will be a refuge currency.
The USD rally of late is based on concerted spin and statistical manipulation ie: Lehman Bros only lost 2.6 billion when the market assumed 6 billion so they are actually ahead 3.4 billion. or the spin on unemployment that uses a faulty birth/death model to brighten the picture.
The USD rally is not sustainable.
A strong loonie will be good for Canada in the long term though maybe not so much for inefficient, unproductive industry that has sponged off a low loonie for too long.
Inflation is around 1.7% and probably won't hit 2% Slow growth is good for canada right now because we do not have either the capital or brainpower or manpower to forge ahead at present.
Ontario can assume a large position in oilsands upgrading and petro-chemical manufacture but it needs the political will to counter existing strategy in sending raw bitumen and raw gas south. Stripping NG means the manufacture of plastics and building product components as well as fuel gasses and presently,it all goes to Chicago.
Canada needs to address education and training as much of our expertise retires in the coming years. The typical Canadian laziness in depending on immigrants for skills rather than investing in training and slouching along living off a low Cando rather than investing in productivity is ended.
The revolution is upon us,Fidel. Will we persevere or will we underachieve, claim victimhood and look for someone to blame?
Everything except political leadership. I do hope that the ensuing turmoil will force responsibility onto the younger generation to lose their acquiesance to defeat and mobilise to throw the bums out - all of them.
[ 11 June 2008: Message edited by: jester ]
And Garth Turner says Canada's economy isn't different enough from the USA's in this respecy. Housing is driving our economy, and 90 percent of Canadians' wealth is in their homes. An average bungalow in Vancouver is $900,000, and average walkup condo in Toronto is a million bucks. The average Canadian can't afford to buy average homes on average Canadian salaries. There are Canadians taking out 40 year mortgages at subprime and near-subprime and just as overextended financially as our Ameriacn counterparts. In fact, our economy probably shadows the U.S. more closely than any other.
Canadians are perennial underachievers, and its not for a shortage of clever people. Canada has let 650,000+ well educated Asians, first and second generationals, return to Asia since the mid 1990's, and it's because those BSc's and BA's and P.Eng's and MBA's and PhD's, MD's etc couldn't see any future here for ultilizing their education and skills. The NDP has pointed this out time and again to no avail in Ottawa.
It's difficult because there is no real successful model for the new Liberal capitalism, ie. economies based on banking and financial services. Unless we build a huge military, Canada can't emulate the U.S. economy whereby every other country buys U.S. debt while Americans live beyond their means. At some point the feds have to invest in human capital and shore up this $130 billion dollar infrastructure deficit. We can't compete with those top ten countries which are doing those things well until we stop the bleeding of untaxed profits leaving the country. Big energy isn't going to invest in educating more physicians or scientists or engineers or in green infrastructure projects. But they'll be more than happy to skip the country with profits from oil and gas and timber and minerals and hydro-electric power if no one does anything about it. It doesn't have to be this way. We need a competitive electoral system in Canada before money speculators will ever consider the loony for a reserve currency.
In May of 2008, in the city of Toronto, 1462 condo apartments sold at an average price of $296,104.
Source:
Toronto Real Estate Board Market Watch, May 2008.
Remark: This publication lists, for each "area" (e.g. E01, C09, etc.) the number of condo apartments sold and the average price in that area. I had to do a bit of math to get the average for the city of Toronto.
Thanks for the link to Turner's article.
It is quite misleadingly written. He writes, "Ever-increasing debt loads have masked the fact average families can no longer afford average homes. When bungalows in Vancouver cost $900,000 and resale homes with no parking in midtown Toronto are $1 million..." Though he never explicitly states that those are average prices, its juxtaposition with the remark about "average families" certainly suggests that those are average prices. That kind of sophistry really bugs me! Grrrr.
And as Turner said recently, what will values of these new mini-mansions be, thrown up in record time by housing developers, years down the road when home heating costs rise even higher? I think private banks and insurance companies are hoping the debt pyramid will explode at some point with them in the driver's seat and cleaning up on real estate and other physical assets. And this is after creating 95% of the money supply as interest-owing debt out of thin air. Privatize plunder and socialize risk, is their way.
Interesting. I've never even heard of a 40-year mortgage.
Which is better?
Discuss.
P.S. For the many babblers who look at the USofA as a nation of evil that is on par with (or likely worse than) Nazi Germany, I can’t think of a third alternative to (1) and (2) that would plausibly fit within that world view.
Your input today is as useful as ever, Sven.
Thank you!! From you, I'll take that as a compliment!!
Seriously, put the show on the other foot. Would you like to see an imperialistic superpower with nukes and a passion for blood have controlling interest in your country? My guess is, no. So excuse us if we happen to have a HUGE dislike of the way your country tends to do business.
Thanks Stargazer - that image made my afternoon!
The final frontier: our airwaves up for grabs.
quote:
"But Ian Morrison of the Friends of Canadian Broadcasting warned the changes could also be the first step in exposing the country's broadcasters to foreign ownership.
"It's a slippery slope. It's not inconceivable that ultimately you get CTV owned in New York," he said."
Betcha the Great Unread can't wait to save a couple of bucks. I found out last week that that category of Canuck can include library board members. We are indeed endangered. Wonder how many will read to the bottom two paragraphs?
There is an argument about what role ignorance in the masses plays. Leaving aside I've have lots to argue with you about that, sticking to the theme I just raised...
Why do you have to ratchet up the screeching irritation by couching it in that absolutely snotty old elitist chestnut, 'the Unread' ???
Most of the time, like above, you aren't actually making any argument... you're just waving that obnoxious flag in our faces.
As to the argument itself, is the problem ignorance, or is it lack of engagement?
In the first place, informing oneself has nothing necessarily to do with 'reading' per se. In fact, the whole experiential notion of 'reading' as you use it is bourgeois individualist contemplative to the core. It can make you very informed, it is no doubt the best way to make you very informed... but it is not a prerquisite to being an informed member of the citizenry.
I've known lots of astute people who rarely read much of anything. The males among them often don't even read novels. Logging camps and First Nations communities are situational specifics where to this day there is a lot of communal and oral education. None of that in the rural community where I've now been for decades... but even here there are those astute individuals who just watch the TV like everyone else.
When I went to the UK I was amazed how politically engaged and aware the working class was. Same thing: many of them don't read beans, and get essentially the same crap as we do from the mass culture.
You decry how North Americans are going from bad to worse in being the 'Great Unread'. But they have NEVER been engaged like Brits and Europeans were and are. I would argue that lack of engagement is the cause, and political/social/civic ignorance is the effect. With your notion of 'unread' being a red herring, let alone being an obnoxious irritant when you just wave it around in a gratuitous manner.