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Harper has discredited himself so much over the last week, especially in Quebec. I can't see him winning a majority now. Especially since he won't have Dion to kick around anymore. At least Ignatieff can communicate to the public.
Warning: rambling rant to follow,
I think Iggy will get the interim leadership. I think Iggy is also going to play cute on whether he supports the coalition or not. He will try to position himself as the moderate interlocutor between a coalition government and a reprieve for the Tories. The Liberals under Ignatieff will temporarily strive to be the party again of the "mushy middle." As suggested earlier in this thread, Iggy will try to use the coalition as a bargaining chip primarily between Harper and Layton. I think he even has the audacity to try and renegotiate the coalition's terms with the NDP to try and make it more favourable to the Liberals. THe NDP should say "no, once signed a deal is a deal."
As for whether the coalition is dead or not. I think it is still alive and well. Ignatieff is the kind of ambitious prick that has always wanted the PM-ship delivered to him on a golden platter. If he can become PM without ever having to face the electorate, either in his party or the Liberal party, he will do it. He will do it, because he knows (based on his 2006 face plant and other "brick walls" hit in his professional career) that the risks of actually following a democratic process for him are quite large. He yearns for the unearned opportunity to go down in Canadian history books as PM Iggy and the illusory prestige of becoming prime minister of a G8 country.
For most of Ignatieff's life, "I'm Canadian" has been a pick-up line. Now expect him gush about his love for this country.
As for his ideology, it is remarkably similar to the other candidates. Apart from them, he is dumb/arrogant enough to be on the record for getting away from the Liberal party "sacred cows" of health care, etc. (Classic, ivy-league, write some more books, papers, and get invited to conferences phony controversy bullshit). He is also dumb/arrogant enough to be on the record for supporting Torture Lite(TM*) as director of Harvards "Human Rights" centre- one of many "sycophant to power" and "apologist for the status quo" moments in his intellectual career.
He wants to be PM, make no mistake about that. His preference will be for no election to take place, make no mistake about that. The question is, whether or not he and his backers are satisfied that the Liberal Party walks into power sufficiently in control to make up for any "little" risks like the NDP gaining legitimacy, etc. Also, expect Michael Ignatieff to step up his (Provence aristocrat *snigger*) courting of Quebec- which incidentally can be a good profile raiser for Mulcair, as the more rooted Anglo.
All in all with the Liberal party, "le plus ca change, le plus ca reste le meme." Harper's in a pickle.
The last bit of Liberal motivation for a coalition, yes I know they're broke, has to be the polls. If the polls are saying Tory majority, don't expect them to suddenly become sensitive to the idea of bailing out Harper. They bail out Harper in January and Harper can call an election in May. No one will come running to the Liberals aid when they cry wolf then. The only way the Liberals get to take away the keys from power drunk Harper, is if they move into 24 Sussex Drive.
Iggy on the Middle East.
I know.. it's frightening, isn't it. That those with a realistic chance of becoming PM is either Harper or Mr. "lesser of two evils" Ignatieff.
The Complex Missions of Michael Ignatieff
It's no surprise that he has a different speech for different occasions and audiences. Earlier in this thread, there was mention of a hole being dug by the liberals into which they would fall headlong. In fact, it is the partisan supporters of the NDP who will push their party into the abyss, out of a self-important desire for some scrap of ephemeral influence, like an introverted wallflower, mesmerized by the hypnotizing effects of the disco ball. A man like Ignatieff, vilified on this board in the past as an enemy to everything the left stands for, and rightfully so, has now become an acceptable dance partner as the night wears on.
Right on about the "evil" part. Hope you're correct about the "lesser" part...
Yes, XBox please!
Shhh!
You're talking about our beloved Koalition Kaptain!
Remember: Harper is the bad guy, not Iggy!
Perhaps you were hoping I had stopped using an annoying tag line. You were wrong; you're reading it now. Why not email a moderator to demand that signature/tag lines be abolished forthwith?
I've never been a fan of tag lines Spector but yours gets me every time, and its growing on me... I think its having the opposite of its intended effect.
How is the campaign going btw? I thought I recalled Michelle being opposed to those things from the get-go and yet, here they are.
Ignatieff's stand concerning human rights has been twisted for political reasons. People should consider his own words before passing judgement.
Who Are Americans To Think That Freedom Is Theirs To Spread ? New York Times Magazine by Michael IgnatieffI think Ignatieff is a strong advocate for human rights. That's why he was chosen to be the Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at the Kennedy School of Government in Harvard University.
M hasn't been winning much lately even his anti-coalition stance...oh I only posted this so everyone could look at my tagline. Actually I gave some content in my post unlike some. :P
______________________________________________________________________________________ "Everybody's worried about stopping terrorism. Well, there's a really easy way: stop participating in it." Noam Chomsky
Ignatieff to Harper: Change or fall
It looks like Iggy is willing to cut Harper some slack. Conservatives never change. Change is a terrifying experience for political conservatives
I hear ya. Like two peas of the same pod.
An in-depth portrait of Ignatieff from the Globe & Mail a couple of years ago is worth a read. On throwing his little brother under the bus:
"Writing in Old Boys, however, he acknowledges that UCC also encouraged him to be an authoritarian prig. And nothing illustrates his youthful ego — and what could lie beneath the surface — quite like the way he treated his younger brother.
Andrew followed him to UCC in 1962. A self-described "fat little prick," he was absent his brother's talents. He was not an athlete, not adept at writing and public speaking, not competitive. While Michael was "God," and "everybody bowed and scraped when he passed," Andrew became known as "fatty," "piggy," "slob," "spaz," "big ass" — and "Iggy," a nickname he loathed.
He, too, contributed to Old Boys — it's the last public comment he has made about his brother.
"Before I started at age 12," he writes, "our parents sat down with my older brother and me. They said, 'Michael, you're the big brother, and Andrew is going to UCC for the first time. It's the first time he has ever been away. You have to understand you have to be good to him.'
"Michael was very sweet and he told me how wonderful UCC would be. Then we went to my Aunt Helen's house and again he was very sweet. My Aunt Helen [Ignatieff, the boys' in loco parentis in Canada] again impressed on him the importance of him looking out for me. Then we went to the school and he introduced me to all the masters in the prep.
"The next morning he said, 'How are things going? Did you sleep well?' I said, 'Yes, I slept well.' He said, 'How was the food?' I said. 'It was gross.' He said, 'Do you want to go for a walk?'
"We went for a walk, and he said, 'I want to make one thing absolutely clear to you. When we're at Aunt Helen's house or Aunt Charity's house [Charity Grant, their mother's sister], you can say whatever you want to me. But if you ever see me on the school grounds, you're not to talk to me. You're not to recognize that I'm your brother. You don't exist as far as I'm concerned. Do I make myself clear?'"
And here's an interview with Linda McQuaig in which she savages Ignatieff's support for war etc:
"That quote [in Holding the Bully's Coat] from Ignatieff, where he talks about torture [being defensible] as long as it's done by a patriotic American, now that's an interesting quote. That one hasn't gotten the play that some of the others [have]. That one was from an interview he did with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. That is an incredible statement of the notion of American exceptionalism, the idea that America should be excepted from being bound by international law. And for Ignatieff to come out and endorse that in the way he did is just phenomenal. I find it striking, because he doesn't talk like that in Canada. You don't hear him talk like that so much in Parliament.... And yet if you actually look at some of the things he's said, he's actually an extraordinary neoconservative. He's up there with guys like Wolfowitz and Douglas Feith and some of those people in terms of the extremism of his position. And yet this guy's a prominent politician in Canada....
"I mean imagine somebody in the U.S., a politician, spending 40 years outside the country and then thinking that they could just sort of sweep in and run for president. I mean the arrogance of it is just mind-boggling. And yet he came very close."
Is he now. His words are contained in various publications, one of them being a book he wrote called "THE LESSER EVIL: Political Ethics in an Age of Terror," reviewed here: The Lesser Evil
People should indeed consider his own words, especially those in favour of a coalition with this party. There are more than a few here, hypocrites actually, who still support this concept, knowing full well that Ignatieff held these views, and that he was a strong contender for the Liberal leadership, and thus leader of the coalition. It will be difficult to take them seriously going forward when they speak here on progressive issues, rights, dignity, etc.
Sounds like Iggy is Doug Niedermeyer from Animal House. " You're all worthless and weak! Now drop and give me twenty!"
I'm not suggesting that Iggy is a lesser evil. I call him "Mr. Lesser of two evils" because it is this argument he used to justify war, torture, etc.
'The Lesser Evils'
The right is using the usual scare tactic against the centrists, to draw them toward the right, namely that by aligning with the NDP they'll be pushed to the left.
It's more likely, in my opinion, that Jack L., in his blind drive for power,could be dragged rightward with the NDP.
It is shocking to realize that Iggy tailors his discourse to his audiences, and the public needs to know more.
I will have a polemic about this later.
For now let me say that this is great new from the standpoint of the Trotskyist Propagandist, a white russian now leads the second capitalist party. (sarcasm this is bad news ofcourse but the sylogisms and analogies are flooding the gates of my brain now.)
The Complex Missions of Michael Ignatieff
____________________________________________________________ http://www.gandhiserve.org/information/questions_and_answers/faq7/faq7.html
I was positively blown away by Mr. Ignatteff's press conference this afternoon. He exuded confidence, poise, and rational thinking. He very firmly stood up to the lunatic PM that we have right now. Harper is on notice that the free ride is over.
Harper could yet win the war but he has a foe in Ignatieff who is very strong indeed.
Ignatieff is all hat, no cattle.
He can reverse or reinvent himself at the first whiff of greater "prestige." Take anything he says seriously, at your own risk.
To take some liberties with what Stockholm said earlier, at least the Liberals now have a saleman to match the sliminess of their brand.
"He very firmly stood up to the lunatic PM that we have right now. Harper is on notice that the free ride is over."
So what if after raising expectations that he will stand up to Harper, Iggy buckles and loses his nerve and votes for Harper's budget and gives him a de facto free ride for the next year or two? Can he live that down?
I actually think he WILL vote down the budget and that the coalition's chances of success have never been greater.
1. The media narrative on Iggy is on what a great compromiser he is, relative to Harper. Chantal Hebert, for instance, sounded trumpets that the Liberals have learned to unite as a party... uhhh... no, Bob Rae has got to be pissed - the Liberals didn't unite, they just let the elite run the party moreso. Why is that narrative important? Blame. If the budget gets voted down Ignatieff needs to be able to blame Harper for not compromising.
2. Iggy has indicated that he will "neither agree nor disagree to meet with Harper". That sounds like a disagreement to meeting with Harper. His line "I will vote for the budget if it is good for the economy" is interesting, because it suggests he has no specific terms on the budget. In practice, he will let Harper do whatever he wants on the budget, and try to figure out what the polls say. If they are good, he takes power, if not, he votes for the budget.
3. Under Dion the coalition would not have had the ability to keep its members in line. Wilfert was basically Dion's only caucus supporter - Iggy would never have made Dion PM. Now that Iggy is in charge though, he has a strong incentive to keep his attack dogs in line.
4. The Liberals are broke, and being in power is a great boon for fundraising. Moreover, the opportunity to run a deficit without blame is great payola for any leader. They get to create funds and programs and such all with their names on it.
Before, there is almost no way the coalition would have gone through given prorogation, with an interim leader or Dion. Now, there is a chance. Iggy can use his media honeymoon to get the benefit of the doubt on a takedown for Harper.
Now if you think he will govern as a progressive, or that Jack Layton will take him down - given how much of Layton's credibility is locked up in this deal - you don't know Jack.