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Whither John Tory
January 8, 2009 - 2:24pm
Saved in the nick of time! Maybe.
Party sources are confirming that MPP Laurie Scott will step aside so Mr. Tory can run in the riding of Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, near Peterborough.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090108.wPOLont-tory...
The Tories have four female MPPs and are about to lose one quarter of them. Way to step into the future.
It seems like a safe Tory seat. Federally they won it with 55 per cent and provincially Scott won with 49 per cent.
Can Tory win the nomination?
To be more precise, he's retreating to the barber's chair in Lindsay, as Leslie Frost proverbially used to govern Ontario from.
Which was fine, as the largest part of people in the province them lived somewhere a lot like Lindsay. These days, the greatest part of Ontarians live somewhere a lot like Mississauga.
At a press conference in Lindsay on Friday (Jan. 9), Ms Scott said she would be signing the papers that afternoon to pave the way for Mr. Tory to have a seat in the legislature.
"Leaders are supposed to attract women into politics, not force them out," said New Democrat Andrea Horwath.
The Liberals still have not decided whether they will run a candidate in the by-election.
Bruce Grey Owen Sound MPP Bill Murdoch, a long-time critic of John Tory who was turfed out of the Conservatives for saying Tory needed to get a seat in the legislature or resign as party leader, said it was about time Tory was finally getting on with his life.
Christina Blizzard:
It's an odd riding. Although it's 72.5% rural while next-door Peterborough riding is 72.5% urban, in the recent federal election the NDP candidate in Peterborough got only 13.9% while the 18-year-old NDP candidate in Haliburton -- Kawartha Lakes -- Brock got 14.6%. (Stephen Yardy is a social work student at Fleming College in Peterborough.) The Liberals got only 20.4%, Greens 8.3%, Conservatives 55.9%.
A safe seat? The Liberals did carry it federally in 1993, 1997, and 2000. Despite it having been Premier Leslie Frost's riding, the Liberals held it provincially from 1975 to 1990 when the NDP actually won it.
If the Liberals take a pass on the by-election, leaving the NDP to carry the opposition banner, might Bill Murdoch be right?
Well, substitute "Green" for "NDP" (and the NDP-favouring circumstances in 1990 were Shane Jolley-esque) and Murdoch might as well be speaking of his own seat.
As for the most recent NDP result here vs Peterborough, it may be akin to the dead cat bounces Greens have gotten in non-Edmontonian Alberta, i.e. unlike Peterborough, the Liberals were not seen in contention at all, so there's more incentive to vote with the heart rather than "strategically".
Remember, too, on behalf of Murdoch, that while the Liberals flopped vs John Tory in the Dufferin-Caledon byelection, they came within 10 points or so of Ernie Eves in *his* byelection.
I'm still wondering if anyone else has had problems accessing the Elections Ontario site...
But the Liberals got such a low vote last October in this riding precisely because no one thought they had a chance.
No, I think the Liberals should politely sit this one out, and let the NDP win by accident.
I have nothing against Stephen Yardy, the student who ran federally in October, but Joan Corrigan ran in this riding provincially in 2007. The local voters could keep the number of women in the legislature constant by electing her instead of John Tory.
In 2002 she helped found the City of Kawartha Lakes Health Coalition to protect and preserve our health care system from privatization and decay. She has also volunteered with the Dunsford Community Centre, the Canadian Mental Health Association, the Canadian Cancer Society, and the Community Development Council of Durham. She currently volunteers with Telecare Lindsay and is a member of the Durham Food Charter Task Force.
Joan’s social activism began one day in about 1998 when she picked up a copy of Canadian Perspectives, published by the Council of Canadians. In 2001, Joan helped found the Peterborough-Kawartha chapter of the Council of Canadians. She actively participated in the recruitment of well-known and influential speakers to provide citizens of Peterborough and Kawartha area with public forums for key issues of the day.
In 2002, she helped found the City of Kawartha Lakes Health Coalition and was one of its original co-chairs. In 2004 she helped deliver a plebiscite on the streets of St. Catharines against P3 hospitals - an event jointly organized by the Ontario Health Coalition, the Council of Canadians and the Niagara Health Coalition. She made a presentation before the Romanow Commission, and her comments on national public healthcare have been published in the Promoter, both of the Lindsay area papers, and the Toronto Star.
Thinking it was logical to integrate her early experiences of social service work with her recent social activist activities, Joan decided to return to school in 2005 and is currently completing a degree in social work through Carleton University.
Joan and her husband, Joe, live in Lindsay with their children, Peter and Graeme.
Works for me.
Apparently 22 percent of the eligible vote is all that stands between the ONDP and absolute power. I think McGuilty's Liberals are very beatable.
I hope the NDP can field a strong candidate. The last time there was an NDP member in the riding, he caused a stir and a rift between him and then leader Bob Rae.
Does anyone have a sense of what the riding association and provincial executive think about this? Is there a list of names being floated as potential candidates?
My cottage is in the riding and i am curious to see how the by-election plays out.
"I love that word...Refooooooorm!" :)
The fledgling Reform Party of Ontario will run a candidate against Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory in the upcoming Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock by-election.
Party leader Brad Harness said conservative voters are seeking a viable alternative to Tory, whom he called "an urbanite" and a member of "the Canadian establishment, the moneyed establishment."
http://www.thestar.com/News/Ontario/article/570621
The NDP is having its nomination meeting for the riding Feb 15. These are the candidates.
Lynne Boldt, chair of the Voices of Central Ontario and the Ontario De-amalgamation Network. Boldt has lived in Victoria County for 20 years and ran for mayor of Kawartha Lakes in 2006.
• Lyn Edwards, president of CUPE Local 855, representing municipal workers at the City of Kawartha Lakes. Edwards, 47, works in the city’s emergency services department and lives in Oakwood.
• Stephen Woof, vice president of the local district of the Ontario Secondary School Teachers Federation. Wood, 53, teaches at Haliburton Highlands Secondary School and lives in West Guilford.
http://www.thepost.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1413386
NDP has its work cut out for it.
www.thepost.ca
Poll is still open.
Who will you vote for in the local byelection?
PC - John Tory 48% 906
LIBERAL - Rick Johnson 38% 708
GREEN - Mike Schreiner 1% 14
NDP - Lyn Edwards 12% 233
FREEDOM - Bill Denby 1% 16
At this point, I would suspect that it's going Liberal, but anything can happen in the next 19 days.
To be honest, I think the Liberals are hoping that Tory just squeezes in. That way, he'll continue to be a weak opponent. If he loses he's out for sure, and they might have to face someone more credible (not that I see anyone in that caucus who I find very credible).
babble really needs a boilerplate post to explain why self-selected (ie non-random) internet polls are useless.
PC - John Tory
48% 926LIBERAL - Rick Johnson
37% 716GREEN - Mike Schreiner
1% 14NDP - Lyn Edwards
13% 251FREEDOM - Bill Denby
1% 16
Formatting issues :(
As you can see the NDP vote has picked up somewhat but lost 1% overall and is sitting at a traditional average. As it is a local newpaper, and as no serious polling firms seem to get used in by elections, it is the best straw poll you are going to find.
It points out some trends, and weights things according to support of the base and the mobilizing efforts, mixed with people who like to read their local paper and vote on internet polls.
I would like to see the NDP candidate win, 1) Because its not another weak Liberal MPP, nodding off in parliment, and 2) because, it would be quite the message if John Tory lost his chance for a seat to the NDP.
My Guess is that Conservatives will plug their nose and vote for John Tory, just to keep the seat blue.
In 19 days, anything can happen and the NDP have proven themselves effective in By Elections.