THE NDP: A Risk You Can't Afford

I'm not sure it will backfire.

But it is in character with the dumb moves of this government. They always seem to be following a script somebody wrote for someone else- or somewhere else.

Their latest whiz of a campaign director is [name escapes me] from the Conservative campaign, who was successful at tagging Dion with the image he never got away from.

Granted, they weren't stupid enough to try to tag Darell Dexter personally. And characturizing the NDP worked very well in 1999 [that was done by the Liberal government, clearing the way for the then distant third Tories to replace them]. But the NDP had only been 18 months in the limelight then [and froze like a deer in headlights].

But it still strikes me as people with no imagination, who get advice from outsiders who don't know what to offer than waht has worked for them in the past... with neither having the seperate or collective sense to do the obvious checking of whether this will work here.

I bet this has been tested out on live subjects. But this crew would screw up a focus group too.

Now that I think of it- there is plenty of time for it to dissapear and be forgotten if it isn't working, or even if it gets an adverse reaction. And if it catches...................   So maybe from their perspective, there is no harm trying

You wont find the word "Agressive" in Darrell Dexters playbook.

And I'm not referring to style/presentation. That aspect of Darell as leader is a good thing.

I'm talking about the context you were speaking of: the presentation of options.

Interesting about not being aggressive in presentation of options.  I agree Darell's approach has built his rep as a calm, cool and steady hand.  You're saying that the NDP should continue to hang back... and what, let the Conservatives continue to hang themselves with the voters? 

I just think that the context of tight money balanced budgets for NS is about to change, that structural deficit is upon us due to reduced economic growth (contraction?) and resultant falling tax revenues (this is on top of wasteful Cons practices (mini-ATVs, ministerial vehicles, fat gigs for corporate buddies, etc.)).  When the word gets out that NS is in deficit, who will the voters then trust to run government, that will be the question and is what the Cons 'Risky NDP' campaign is about. 

The NDP's quick rebuttal 'thriftyNDP.ca' shows that the NDP strategists are up to taking on the Cons.  However, why let the Cons bring the campaign to the NDP why not get aggressive and take it to the Cons?  I guess i'll trust that the party strategists know what they're doing.

It's gonna be a helluva battle to flip the seat count the NDP's way, likely coming down to momentum and a couple of key swing-able ridings.  I can't wait to get at it.

Its not a question of what I think should happen. That has always been the one and only plan of the NSNDP. Its certainly not going to change now.

I'm among the dissidents who don't like this because we feel it means when we get to government we'll have no real mandate, and not much of a plan for what to do for that matter.

A few years back we were saying it also was not going to work to just sit back. It was always obvious we didn't like the approach anyway, but we sincerely expected the waiting startegy would bite us- like it did in 1999.

We've been proven wrong. With the benefit of hindsight: when your opponents are not bright lights, a not very good strategy is sufficient to beat the chronically bad strategy of your opponents. Nova Scotia politics is not paved with brilliance. 

What I said above answers that question. When your opponents always present you with gifts, why take the risk of taking the initiative? The party strategists are good at the [chosen] task in front of them.

I was late to come around to the apparent consensus among observors that the election is the NDP's to lose. So I don't really expect it to be that close- not that the seat count difference will be that much, and there will probably be a number of very close races.

But the flip side of a strategy of sitting quiet and letting the Tories slowly sef-destruct is that you have an electorate in your favour but without much conviction. Thats a situation primed for a quick turnaround/dissapointment that does not have to turn on a lot.

But to be fair, past experience across the country is that an electorate with strong convictions does not tend to produce a good outcome for the NDP.

Was reluctant to get into this thread, as I feel the title is a negative spin in itself. However, I have been thinking about what the NDP should do to combat this "risky" perception being sold to the electorate, both in BC, NS and across Canada.

IMV, the NDP needs to take the fight to them with a public messaging like; "Can Canadians take this risk again?"

And start juxtapositioning the Great Depression with today, a meme started by Harper himself. And then carry forward to what brought about advances in Canadian society by way of social justice and better government policies, "socialism" with the voice and presence of the NDP.

Interestingly, they could start with the Canadian government website itself which says:

"The Great Depression was a turning point for Canada. Before 1930, the government intervened as little as possible, believing the free market would take care of the economy, and that churches and charities would take care of society. But in the 1930s a growing demand arose for the government to step in and create a social safety net with minimum hourly wages, a standard work week, and programs such as medicare and unemployment insurance. (See 1941—Unemployment Insurance Act.)

The Depression also led governments to be more present in the economy. It brought about the creation in 1934 of the Bank of Canada, a central bank to manage the money supply and bring stability to the country’s financial system. (See 1934—Bank of Canada.)"

http://www.canadianeconomy.gc.ca/English/economy/1929_39depression.html

But yet, the Liberals and Conservatives, using the governmental intervention policies started back then, to again tie Canadians to the "free market" model, that failed so miserably once before, under the same free market ideology.

It is they, who Canadians cannot trust, and this message could be done in short pictorials of the great depression, with voice overs stating what policies and parties brought the economy to that collapse, and how risky our future is again because of them and portray them as harming the future with more of the same.

Then have further short pictorials of the social safety net brought to us by the CCF/NDP and the workers and producers in Canada, with voice overs stating something about: "Canadians "know" who they can trust, those who have proven time and again that they care".

This could be followed by showing what what it would be like right now, en masse, if the Cons and Liberals had their way, without the NDP's voice in governments and this could be accompanied by pictorials of Mulroney, Martin/Chretien, and now Harper,  and their equals in the provincial realm, with more voice overs stating the instances of how they were trying to destroy the safety nets completely.

Each pictorial of them could be followed with images of; the growing need, again, for food banks/soup kitchens, homelessness, the plight of the FN on reserves and other such pertinent images like the stand offs, emergency rooms full of people waiting, over crowded classrooms with crumbling structures around the children, pollution and other pertinent pictorials. 

And then conclude with something like: "Can Canadians "risk" their future with those who have created these messes, over, and over, again".

Such an ad campaign can be made from a joint provincial and federal effort. The ad could be standardized with the mentioned pictorials and voice overs, and then the images of former and current provincial Con and Liberal leaders could be slotted in the places where the federal leaders would be in a federal campaign.

Seeing as how there are 2 provincial elections coming up and most likely a federal one, it would also be a plus as it would be a cost savings on advertising, for the entire NDP campaigns.

Funny, you are making the assumption that the NDP cannot DO anything to help Canadians. In reality, socialist policies will help Canadians, whilst the neither of the other parties will.

Moreover, you are indicating, or at least trying to, that long term political gamesmanship should come before, trying to win an election and saving the social safety nets from being gutted, just in case we will win and get "Bob Raed".

The NDP have gotten "Bob Raed" because people keep talking about it as if it was an anomally. instead of just stating to people; "good thing we don't list how  many times the Liberals and Cons have destroyed the economy,  and ran us into deficits, as there were too many to even remember, but yet you stupidly carry on about Bob Rae and the NDP?"

Preston is a small constituency with a volatile voting history. Anything can happen there any election.

I've not heard anything about the current Liberal MLA being vulnerable. But that doesn't mean anything.

The negative campaign has received a fair bit of coverage in the Herald yesterday and today, including an editorial:

"RODNEY MacDONALD should leave the caricatures to Bruce MacKinnon.

At least when Bruce puts words in people’s mouths or exaggerates their features and foibles, he does not expect to be taken literally. But the premier of this province seems to think he can draw a cartoonish picture of the NDP and pass it off as serious analysis. Please.

On the eve of their annual meeting this weekend, the provincial Tories launched an NDP-bashing campaign that looks and sounds far more sophisticated than it is. They produced a 65-page glossy booklet, a website and a backdrop for deputy premier Angus MacIsaac to send the message that the official Opposition is "a risk you can’t afford."

Actually, what Nova Scotians can’t afford is a government that wastes its time and our money on partisanship when the province cries out for leadership...

Nova Scotians will recognize this for what it is: propaganda. How else can you describe a document that blurs the line between fact and fantasy? In some cases, the authors distort questions posed by critics in the House and twist issues raised in press releases into NDP commitments that will cost the treasury millions.

So what does any of this prove? That we have a government which is ahead of the electoral curve and behind the economic curve. It’s quick to produce campaign literature, but can’t come up with a budget when we need one."

and a response from Darrell Dexter titled 'Attack the Recession, Not the NDP':
"As the economic crisis deepened last fall, Rodney MacDonald failed to address it during the sitting of the Legislature. He later refused to appear before the Public Accounts committee to explain the province’s finances. He has been unclear about the amount of equalization in the federal budget. And instead of delivering a budget at the usual time, in March or April, MacDonald is floating the idea of a later budget, perhaps in June.

If ever there was a year for a timely provincial budget, this is the year. Hospitals and schools need to know what they will be facing so they can plan accordingly. Nova Scotians are looking for a clear direction from the provincial government regarding an economic stimulus package, and priorities for spending federal infrastructure dollars. And major industries want to know how the province plans to steer a course through the recession."

plus a decent letter to the editor:

"Sometimes, partisan politics makes people behave rashly. Sometimes, it makes them unreasonable. I’m concerned that the Rodney MacDonald government’s partisanship may have made it incompetent.

Spending an unknown amount of taxpayer dollars, they launched a pre-election campaign "stunt budget" full of wild predictions on what an NDP government will do, instead of just waiting for the NDP to release their real, costed plan during an election campaign.

Darrell Dexter seems like a pretty reasonable, logical guy. His budget will probably turn out to be a fair and genuine plan to improve our hospitals, schools, environment, roads and economy – just like the last NDP election platform.

This Conservative stunt falls into the rash and unreasonable category. But what makes it a sign of incompetence is that Rodney’s team has admittedly worked on this fake budget for six months, but will have to delay their own budget this year because they need to do more research. It would be kind of funny, if it weren’t just so sad."

And a cute political cartoon by Bruce MacKinnon (see it today on the Herald Homepage)

BIG caveat on what I just said.

Yes, all three are geared for an election, BUT....

The current Leader of the Liberals has always been disinclined to have them vote in support of a Budget again.

But the Libs are just about invisible. Because they are only in the running in a limited number of areas, no public domain poll is going to give an accurate prediction of their chances. Not to mention that the questions in those polls have for a few elections now consistently shown a far higher preference for the Libs than they get at the ballot box. The brand gets them support to a pollster, that evaporates at the voting booth.

But if the Libs internal polls tell them they are primed for losing some seats, whether MacNeill wants to plow ahead regardless will be a moot question.

The way the government is framing things a Budget the Liberals support would be just peachy. And ignoring the Liberals now has the side benefit of adding to the possibility they will be [or are already] desperate.

Translation: I guess its still "we shall see".

I'm guessing that if the fix is in the Liberals won't come out and make it obvious until as late as possible. And the government will have enough of its own reasons to play along.

So once again, who knows?

The difference is that with the NS Liberals the brand gets them poll support close to the other 2 parties.

The truly invisible NS Green Party- despite big time public funding- does not even register on the radar.

"If the budget is being delayed this long then it must mean that *surprise* the NS government is sitting on a deficit. The NS Tories will not want to go in to an election with a deficit, so the poison pill budget that they will deliver is a fudge-it budget"

If that were true why wouldn't Gordon Campbell do the same with his deficit budget in BC??

I'm not sure that the NS budget is being delayed. I seem to remember NS budgets often coming down in late Spring.

Doh! I guess we'll have to see if the budget is delayed. Of course budgets are tabled in March, sometimes late March, it just doesn't seem like the NS Tories really have their eye on the economic ball right now. Given that the equalization back-rooming is pretty much sealed and signed in blood, the Tories probably don't have a major incentive to post the budget late because the longer they wait the worse things are going to look for government revenue and on the economy. For example, there is usually a spring uptick in unemployment as young people start looking for summer jobs and the private sector cutbacks and layoffs show no current signs of slowing down. The NDP can be watching the regional unemployment numbers as they plan their campaign tour- could make for some very charged rallies if people are hurting, which we all know they are. The swing ridings of King's South and Antigonish host universities that may see students having trouble finding summer and post-grad employment for example.

As for Campbell and BC, Nova Scotia is a have not province, with worse infrastructure than BC, and is not used to deficits- least of all from the Conservatives. I would like to think NS voters may be more fiscally risk averse than those in Lotus Land- particularly with Danny Millions' nearby success. I think attacking the Tories on running a deficit when Newfoundland is doing okay is something that could stick. Although Nova Scotians may be smart enough to realise that their offshore resource revenues are much more modest on a per capita basis. In the end, I probably don't know what I'm talking about but I'm just going on the assumption that the NS Tories will want to table a budget that paints the rosiest picture possible before heading into an election. That being said, my bets are Nova Scotia IS going to deficit- whether the Tories like it or not.

The latest poll of 800 people just came out in Nova Scotia and the NDP is still up at 36% compared to 30% for each of the Liberals and Tories.

http://www.cra.ca/en/home/Newsroom/NDPInPositionToWinPossibleSpringElect...