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Considering Dennis Drainville's 45% or so in 1990, or that the NDP was over 15% here provincially in 2003 (yeah, with Earl Manners, so what) and federally (*without* Earl Manners) in 2004 and 2006, to call it "no base of support" is a little blithe, let alone "worst riding in the province". Even provincially in 2007, they were 12% to the Greens' 7%; and, far from being "worst in the province", that was only barely below midpack among Ontario ridings, sharewise.
All in all, we're talking about a seat where the NDP's lately tended to do better on average than in virtually *all* 905-belt seats save Oshawa.
As I watch the poll numbers come in I realize that I thought that Tory would win. I am astonished to see Johnson out front.
It is frightening to think the PCs would be led by a neo-con again. At least Tory believed in some social services.
Honestly I heard a lot of people say that they usually vote NDP, but don't like Lyn Edwards and wouldn't vote for her. Some are upset about the big strike in Lindsay last winter, others just don't like her robot performance.
I expect the Green candidate to top her here.
Huh? Tory rah-rah here?
It also goes without saying that with the NDP leadership race happening this weekend - the level of NDP effort in this byelection was essentially NIL.
But the real story is what happens to the PCs now since this will almost certainly mean the end of John Tory.
The unlamented John Tory has lost. Good riddance.
He tried to turn the wheel of history backwards by pandering to organized religion. And as I pointed out 18 months ago, he is a shameless anti-FN racist and social neo-con.
What is amazing, now as then, is some people trying to present him as a nice guy:
Yeah, like more cops, courts, and prisons for Aboriginal people (see above link).
No one ever said Tory was a "nice" guy. In fact most people I've met who know him say that he's actually not particularly "nice" at all and that on the contrary - he is a bit of a jerk.
But, by Conservative standards, he is socially moderate. He marches in the gay pride parade every year, he is a patron of the arts and he seems to want to appeal to urban voters. Its not saying much - but it sure beats Harris.
Its hard to say "good riddance" when the happiest people about his demise are the rightwingers in the PC party who want to replace him with someone far worse - and my fear is that after a couple more years of recession - that person culd be the next premier of Ontario.
Tory's policies and statements as I cited above, in detail, are racist and bordering on fascist, besides his attempt to further destroy the public school system. He may be better than Harris, or better than Hitler, but your standards are abysmally low.
Anyway, he lost tonight, and the NDP lost to the Greens. This is a lesson for the defenders of sending taxpayers' money to churches to educate kids. It's a hint to the next NDP leader to stop listening to the opportunistic cowardly spin doctors, take some bold stands of principle, and stick to them.
I'm not confident, but I'm always hopeful.
I think its overstating things to say that opposing the blockade in Caledonia makes anyone a "racist". I believe every single political figure in Quebec opposed the Oka blockade - I don't say that they were all racists (possibly some were - but there are planty of non-racist reasons to oppose illegal blockades).
I don't see the results of this byelection sending any message at all about religious school funding. The big winners were the Liberals - who support the status quo.In fact, 94% of voters voted for candidates who support the status quo on separate school funding - and I gather that the Green candidate said nothing about the issue either.
From what I can tell the byelection revolved around a backlash against Tory being parachuted in.
That's fine, Stockholm, with wisdom like yours, the ONDP can kiss its chances goodbye for yet another 14 years.
"From what I can tell the byelection revolved around a backlash against Tory being parachuted in. "
Stockholm, I think you got it right there. Laurie Scott was generally well liked if not a bit harmless, John Tory was seen as an outsider and a loser. Neither did he seem to have put much effort in winning the riding over that kind of presumption does not go over well around here.