I have been annoyed by the great 2011 Blue Liberal Stampede Myth for a long time. Time to bust it. Let’s look at the polls through the campaign.
1) The first thing you notice is that at the start of the campaign the Conservatives were very close to where they ended up. The first two polls were 38 and 41 and the final result was 39. At the start the Liberals were around 24, recovered to around 30 and then declined down to 19. The NDP increased by more than the Liberal and BQ decline put together.
2) The Liberal collapse was tracked from about half way through the campaign. This collapse is completely to the NDP. In fact there is a slight decline in the polling for the Conservatives in the last week before an uptick on Election Day.