Ever since television became the major source of news, election campaigns feature one of two pretty simple to understand themes: “it’s time for a change, ” or “throw the scoundrels out. ” In 2006 the Liberals look bad either way.

Last weekend, EKOS detected a slippage in support for the Liberals large enough to cause them to survey more voters before going public. When the Toronto Star did publish the results it was to announce that the Conservatives have taken a significant lead in the race.

So far NDP voters are sticking with Jack. The increase in support for Conservative Stephen Harper could undermine Liberal campaigns in Saskatchewan and B.C. where the NDP looks like the best bet to beat the Conservatives.

As important as campaigns can be to the outcome of an election, the real work takes place well before the writ is dropped. The Conservative lead with just over ten days to go reflects what they have done since the last election to improve their campaign performance.

The decision to schedule Conservative policy announcements for nine o’clock in the morning has put the other parties in a situation of reacting and responding. In particular, Harper has taken the initiative away from the Liberals. The new style was developed by the party following the analysis made of Conservative short-comings in the last campaign.

Learning from your mistakes has never been a bad idea. Announcing policy items one by one with no cost figures attached used to be a bad idea. Such a strategy helped sink John Turner in 1984. But the Conservatives are getting away with it this time.

It helps Stephen Harper to have the full support of the CanWest Global, and CTV Globe media conglomerates. CBC television news is Tory friendly to a fault.

Even the normal sort of journalistic question is neglected. For example: Do the Conservative still want Canada to join the American first strike missile deployment efforts (aka missile defence, or star wars)?For those who do not need to have Stockwell Day as foreign minister in order to get a good night’s sleep, it would be interesting, and informative, to see what kind of candidates for cabinet the Conservatives have been hiding from public view throughout the campaign.

Christopher Waddell (formerly of the CBC and The Globe and Mail) pointed out in the Globe how under-reported the NDP campaign has been, when a minority government scenario suggests New Democrats should be getting more air time, not less.

The former Reform Alliance bunch succeeded in putting the old right in a new bottle named Conservative. But they also brought along their ability to sign up members, born back when Preston Manning made the most of the NDP initiative to turn political contributions into refundable tax credits.In the drive to build on its campaign success the Conservatives will have to get their partisans to the polls, an area where the Liberals have shone since 1993.

The final score will reflect which party can claim a strong share of the undecided vote. In addition, Decima has found softness in voters leaning Conservative, but worried about the effect of political change on the economy.

The NDP has its own leaning voters to worry about, even though those who skipped to the Liberals in 2004, should know by now that the NDP gets in its best licks in a minority parliament.

Television news seems old style in a wired world. Political campaigns are now able to address more sophisticated issues than the need for change or corruption. Getting to the 40 per cent who have tuned out of old style politics, and are unlikely to vote remains the challenge for the future of electoral democracy.

Duncan Cameron

Duncan Cameron

Born in Victoria B.C. in 1944, Duncan now lives in Vancouver. Following graduation from the University of Alberta he joined the Department of Finance (Ottawa) in 1966 and was financial advisor to the...