I was expecting to be spending most of September 8 in Guelph, working Election Day for Tom King, the NDPâe(TM)s remarkable by-election candidate in the riding next door to where I live.

It now looks almost certain that the three federal by-elections scheduled for that date (the others were to take place in the Montreal-area ridings of Westmount-Ville Marie and Saint-Lambert) and the one scheduled for September 22 in Don Valley West will be cancelled in favour of a general election to be held in mid-October.

According to Stephen Harper âe” who was in favour of fixed election dates until he wasnâe(TM)t âe” the sudden election call is necessary because the opposition parties would not promise to support his agenda through the fall session and because Parliament had become increasingly âeoedysfunctional.âe

He must think that Canadians havenâe(TM)t been paying attention (and, on that count at least, he may well be right). With only a minority of seats, Harperâe(TM)s Conservatives have survived confidence vote after confidence vote. This happened initially with the reluctant assistance of the Bloc Quebecois and more recently through the escalating obedience of the Liberals (or, as I like to call them, âeoeStephane Dion and the Abstentionsâe ).

Indeed, itâe(TM)s difficult to imagine an official opposition party more utterly compliant to a minority governmentâe(TM)s agenda than the Liberals have been since 2006. They might as well have called for a formal coalition and asked for seats at the Cabinet table (besides David Emerson, that is). Nelson Wiseman, who teaches Political Science at the University of Toronto, rebuts the dysfunction argument effectively. âeoeThe Liberals have been rolling over on their backs like kitties saying, âe~Pet me,âe(TM) so we haven’t seen any disruption.âe

So, realistically, what does Stephen Harper really hope to achieve by forcing Canadians to the polls before the October 2009 date imposed by his own legislation? There is, after all, little chance that heâe(TM)ll be able to turn his minority into a real majority (according to polls, there simply arenâe(TM)t enough voters enamoured with either Harper or his agenda to make that happen, and very little room for growth beyond the support that they currently enjoy). Itâe(TM)s more likely that Harper has several other objectives in mind:

Avoiding four by-election defeats

Conservatives were not going to win Westmount-Ville Marie, Saint-Lambert, Guelph or Don Valley West and they knew it. The best they could hope for was second place in three of the four ridings (three of which had been Liberal seats and one of which was held by the Bloc). While they might have enjoyed the prospect of seeing the Liberals lose two of their three seats, the public perception would be that the government was being punished by voters. Thatâe(TM)s not the narrative that Harper wanted to take to the voters if he called an election for later in the fall, or in the unlikely event that Stephane Dion grew a spine and or even defeated the government by accident.

Weakening the Liberals even further (if thatâe(TM)s possible)

If Harper wins another minority (the scenario suggested by current poll results), the Liberals would be unlikely to dump the hapless Stephane Dion immediately. And, if and when they did so, a leadership race in Canadaâe(TM)s Natural Grovelling Party would put the party in an even more precarious position than they are currently. And, more leadership campaign debts âe” on top of those already being carried by Dion and others âe” would make them more afraid of their shadow than Wiarton Willy on a sunny February morning. In the mean time, Harper gets to continue to govern as if he had the majority that he canâe(TM)t win at the polls.

Getting an extension until after the recession ends (and the scandals are forgotten)

Itâe(TM)s better for Harper to get the election out of the way before the economic news gets even worse than it already is. The economic picture in North America is likely to get worse before it gets better, so why not get a renewed mandate while he still can (before it gets so bad that heâe(TM)ll be blamed for it) and then try to ride it out long enough to take credit for the recovery? As well, the Cadman bribery allegations, the advertising money laundering allegations and the Mulroney-Schreiber investigation could be more effectively buried after an election. If they come up during the campaign, Harper can say that they are âeoebefore the courtsâe and refuse to answer any questions on the subject.

Giving himself a new list of priorities

In 2006, Harper campaigned on six priorities. He can argue, somewhat convincingly, that heâe(TM)s kept five of them. The sixth commitment, a wait times guarantee for health care, has disappeared and will apparently never be spoken of again. Harper never expected his minority to last as long as it did, and heâe(TM)s been reduced to arguing with the Senate about term limits (which heâe(TM)ll no doubt be in favour of until some of his own pet Senators approach their term limits). Now he needs to make some more promises, just so that he can then say that heâe(TM)s kept them.

Giving his caucus a shot in the arm

Harper may have more MPs than any other party, but his pool of potential cabinet ministers remains pretty shallow. Giving some his MPs a chance to retire and having the prospect of electing up to ten new ones allows him to apply a fresh coat of blue paint to his caucus.

Regardless of the reasons that Harper wants an election, the voters may have other ideas. A lot can happen between now and mid-October, and Harper may find that the results are not what heâe(TM)s expecting.

At the very least, we have the opportunity to work for such an outcome. Letâe(TM)s make the best of it!

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Scott Piatkowski

Scott Piatkowski is a former columnist for rabble.ca. He wrote a weekly column for 13 years that appeared in the Waterloo Chronicle, the Woolwich Observer and ECHO Weekly. He has also written for Straight...