This election could settle nothing, leaving us to anticipate a rematch within two years or it could lead to a new politics — a stable coalition ready to govern for four years.It all depends on how many seats the Conservatives win.

A stable coalition of Liberals and New Democrats would require they win a parliamentary majority between them, a minimum of 155 seats. Otherwise, we face a hung parliament, leading to posturing, angling for advantage, and probably leadership races in the Conservative and Liberal parties, and faint hope for needed progressive policies from Parliament.

At dissolution the standings were Liberals 133, NDP 18, Conservatives 98, the Bloc 53, and four independents, with two seats vacant. We know the Liberals are going to lose some seats in Quebec to the Bloc. The chances they can recoup enough seats elsewhere to form a majority are remote. But a combination of Liberal and NDP gains could produce a Parliament with the NDP holding the balance of power.

At that point the NDP could set out its conditions for supporting the Liberals. It could initiate a public dialogue about the next parliamentary priorities.

This is the last thing corporate Canada wants to happen. It could re-animate social movements, and show the way to a needed open politics agenda.

New Democrats could sign a formal accord with the Liberals, as the Bob Rae NDP did with the David Peterson Liberal government in Ontario, prior to winning the subsequent election on its own.

The NDP could negotiate a formal coalition with the Liberals. This would imply cabinet seats, and joint caucus meetings, as well as a common legislative and budgetary program.

Imagine an anti-poverty parliamentary agenda supported by the two parties, a government prepared to restore unemployment insurance, bring in serious child-care legislation, and address the appalling circumstances faced by single parents, the homeless, and the many other low-income Canadians.

It will not be easy for the Liberals and New Democrats to increase their present total of 151 to 155 or more. When the NDP beats a Liberal, or vice versa, it does not alter the existing balance of power. But when a Tory loses to a New Democrat, a minority government with the NDP holding the balance of power comes closer to realization.

For every seat they lose to a Conservative, the NDP must win another from a Conservative somewhere else, just to maintain the existing balance of power.

We know the Liberals are going to lose some seats in the West. For every seat they lose to a Conservative, they, or the NDP, must win one from a Conservative elsewhere. The race in Ontario is going to be keen, with three way fights not uncommon.

The NDP is far better placed than the Liberals to increase its standings at the expense of the Tories in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and in parts of British Columbia.As the campaign progresses the NDP will have to concentrate its fire on the Tories.The prospect of NDP seats going over to the Liberals is galling for the party, and every seat lost weakens the NDP bargaining position in Parliament.

But there is an imperative: the defeat of enough Tories will give the NDP the balance of power, and Canadians a look at a new politics of coalition.

Duncan Cameron

Duncan Cameron

Born in Victoria B.C. in 1944, Duncan now lives in Vancouver. Following graduation from the University of Alberta he joined the Department of Finance (Ottawa) in 1966 and was financial advisor to the...