Breaking News - NDP Majority Predicted

I should add the fact this poll is weighted in favour of rural voters makes it more interesting.

I forget how to delete, sigh - apparently it is the same no of respondents per riding so the 1st comment is wrong!

I don't know whether the small sample size allows a reasonable degree of accuracy, but I do like the results. It will be interesting to see other polls...

I agree- esp in the seat projection area but here is the actual pr, also intriguing it was done in the Valley where the NDP vote is not strong and one Tory is ill today and not campaigning in that region. Gives one pause. I do hope it is accurate! Do not want to be so exited and then boom! Still, even Marillla S in the Herald is singing the NDP Leader's praises (with a few cranky remarks- she is a Lib) about some of the more leftist (in her mind)

candidates. sigh

KENTVILLE, N.S., MAY 27, 2009:  The latest poll from Nova Insights Market Research & Consulting shows the NDP far ahead of the other parties among likely voters in the province with the PCs and Liberals fighting for second place.
NDP (45%); PC (25%); Liberal (24%); Green (4%)

The Nova Insights Market Research & Consulting seat projection model shows the NDP on track to take 30 seats and possibly an additional 4 that are too close to call.  This is enough to provide Dexter with a majority government.

Those choosing the NDP are also the most likely among the major parties to be certain of their choice, not expecting to change their mind.  Among those that choose other parties as their first choice, but say they might change their mind, the NDP is the most common second choice by far.

Those who feel their personal finances are "not so good" or "poor," are the most likely to be looking for a change to the NDP (51%), rather than continuing with the PCs (17%).

Although not enough to change the direction of the election, Rodney MacDonald's stance on reducing crime may have resonated with some.  Among those that consider "crime and violence" a very serious problem facing the province, 31% choose the PCs (compared to 25% overall among likely voters).

About one-third (35%) approve of the performance of the provincial government led by Rodney MacDonald, but only 29% say they have a favourable opinion of Rodney MacDonald specifically.  Favourability of the Nova Scotia Legislature overall stands at 36%.

Survey Information: Nova Insights' Opinion Pulse Online is an omnibus survey that allows organizations to share the cost of research by purchasing questions on a common survey.  The online sample is part of a large panel of Nova Scotians that is balanced to be representative of the general population.  Interviewing was conducted between May 22 and May 26, 2009 among 408 adult Nova Scotians.  A sample of 408 is accurate within 4.85 percentage points 19 times out of 20. 

-30-

As much as I'd like to believe these results, given the small sample size and the huge lead built up I worry they could be Robbins-SCE-esque.   Or perhaps a tory/liberal push poll designed to scare people from the NDP or to one or the other of the tories/libs.  A poll like that could also encourage NDP voters to stay home.

Not good news, I'd say.

400 is not such a small sample size for a province wide poll. The margin of error is plus or minus 5% - meaning that at worst the NDP may be at 40% - still more than enough for a majority. These people seem to have actually conducted a poll - there is no comparison to Robbins-SCE who doesn't seem to do any fieldwork and just holds a seance!

Hmm, I wonder what Marritimarr thinks about this?

Well, breaking news again unless it is on the other thread which I have yet to read. It appears Corporate Research (ie, Don Mills, Parker et al) concur with this smaller firm.

The latest poll has the NDP way out in front and the headline in the metro news is "NDP Set to Take Power" (If I could make it larger I would but I am in rtf land and not HTML, sigh).

This is the first two paragraphs:

The NDP looks ready seize power in Nova Scotia.

A new poll commissioned by the CBC and conducted by Corporate Research Associates shows support for the NDP is at 44 per cent, up seven points from the first election poll conducted by CRA May 19.

and the rest of the article can be read at http://www.metronews.ca/halifax/local/article/238249--ndp-poised-to-take-power-poll

I DO wish the election were TOMORROW!!! I worry about how much damage the other parties can do between now and then but maybe we are so far ahead???? Curiously, the results - Libs at 31 and Tories at 28 are not that different from the small Kentville poll which I do believe was accurate for a variety of reasons.

Here is the data from Corporate Research

http://www.cra.ca/site-cra/media/CRA/09-2%20NS%20Tables.pdf

That's old data - these tables aren't of the latest survey.

Yep, I saw that. I'll find the new ones later...

Yet another prominant pollster has opined that the NDP is poised (no, I am not aiming for p's, lol) to win a majority government. According to Angus Reid, "Riding a wave of intense dissatisfaction with Rodney MacDonald's tenure as Premier of Nova Scotia, Darrel Dexter appears set to become Atlantic Canada's first New Democratic Party (NDP) premier, a new Angus Reid / CTV poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 47 per cent of decided voters said they would vote for the NDP in Tuesday's election.  The Liberals come in second with 26 per cent, followed by the governing Progressive Conservatives at 23 per cent. "

The rest can be read here: http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/polls-analysis/opinion-polls/ndp-pois...

Thanks JaneyCanuck for keeping us up-to-date with what has been going on in this NS election. If the NDP do succeed in winning a majority government I beleve this will be the first time ever that an NDP government will be elected in Atlantic Canada. Layton will be feeling good. Harper and Ignatieff, not so much.

Only the NDPers would be cautious with 47% polling support and wonder if they would win a majority.

This is such fantastic news - my fingers and toes are crossed.  Last night I was watching HNIC on what turned out to be a NS CBC affiliate, and so of course I kept seeing campaign ads.  The NDP ads were excellent, upbeat, positive.  The Conservative ads (I assume that's who's doing the "NDP isn't up to it" ads?) sounded downright desperate, and the Liberal ads sounded only slightly less so.

Go go go!

I'm with Michelle on this one - NSNDP - Go go go!

Seeing as the NDP has never held office in any of the 4 provinces in Atlantic Canada before, being guardingly optimistic seems to be a reasonable approach.  It sure does look like the NDP is finally becoming a truly national party with Layton at the helm federally.

Having said that, I'll echo the previous sentiments:

Go Dexter Go! 

Giving Layton credit for this is a bit of a stretch. If any federal leader can take credit, it should go to Alexa for leading the Atlantic breakthrough federally in 97, which was followed by Chisholm's provincial breakthrough in 98. The real credit goes to the generations of hardworking provincial NDP activists on whose shoulders Darrell Dexter now stands.

Layton is definitely helping to turn the federal NDP into a truly national party.  He said he had a 10 year plan for Quebec. and how many years is it now. Under Layton's leadership the NDP has increased the number of seats in each federal election, and already has elected the first NDP candidate in Quebec in a federal general election.

I agree with both Ghoris and North Report.  Meghan Leslie, MP spoke at our AGM and said that she only joined the NDP to vote for Jack as leader initially - previously a poverty and environmental activist, she has since been voted 'Rookie of the Year' in The House- and it was Jack's recruiting her that did it - she took over Alexa's riding and had a tough fight for the nomination.  She's young, bright and the kind of candidate that will keep us truer to our roots than many. 

I really think this is a home grown operation - with all due respect to Jack who has helped to some extent - but really, the real accolades go to Alexa and to our current Leader, Darrell Dexter. Many of the same people wo vote for the NDP provincially would NEVER vote for us federally though that changes too. Alexa when she was federal party leader made it OK to vote federally for the NDP and not one Liberal was elected that year! Then as party leader at the national level, she helped to make Halifax an NDP stronghold. Then Darrell added to that - helped by some great MLA's, Maureen, Howard, Graham Steele and the people who never get credit- those who work behind the scenes day and night!!

Jack hs helped but really, this is a provincial election.

OMG!!!! New unpublished poll shows  the NDP at 45%OUTSIDE of metro in the rural ridings. This from Parker Barrs Donhum on his site though my mother just called me to tell me he cited it on CBC. More later after I read his blog....(have to find it first, lol) He says if this is the case.... it wll be an NDP Maj absolutely. I still worry and I am not a nervous nelly, just cautiously optomistic which I once said to Jim Nunn in an interview once in 1980 or so and he laughed at me. lol

You make some really good points, Janey - you've won me over - it's a NS created deal...

Thx Pennyswise, I like your comments too! I meant to thank you before this and one thing leads to another ... sorry for not acknowledging this before!

Here is the breakdown from the Angus Reid poll

                                 NDP     Lib          PC

Metro                       52%       27%      18

Mainland                  45%       26%      25

It becomes clearer as to why Rodney is in Inverness. I worked in that 1987 NB election and this has that same feel - that something unusual is occurring. Yes, I know it could well be that history will be made but I feel there is more. I do not even want to type what I am thinking and no, I doubt any party will win all the seats but it could be a stunning result! As one of our most frequent writers posts, stay tuned.

Parker also noted that politics in NS is a spectator sport, lol He is right on that score, lol

 It is noteworthy to point out to readers outside of Nova Scotia that this individual - who calls us all "socialists" is not a supporter of the NDP and could even be labelled as biased against us.

Where's the thread with discussion of the issues, other than "leadership", in tomorrow's NS election?

You forgot to mention it was a poll of 280 members of the Angus Reid forum from Metro and 344 members of the Angus Reid forum in Mainland NS. The Angus Reid forum is an opt in group of people who complete surveys for money. I received this survey and completed it and got my buck most likely in the same matter most people who completed the survey did... without reading the questions or caring about the answer as long as I gets my money!!!

The Angus Reid stuff could be highjacked quite easily by a Socialist Horde bent on World Domination... All you need to do is get enough like minded people to go the the Angus Reid site, sign up with accounts with profile in every conceivable demographic, and soon you control the results!!! Tell me that you socialists didn't do this... I dare you :-)

forgot the link to Parker... I know you want it....

http://contrarian.ca/?p=810

Socialist Hordes? World Domination? Good grief. Got anything to say about the Jews? Indians?

P.S. I found the substantive threads with the NS election issues.

Hmmm. And what would stop a Liberal from doing the same?

Anyway, make up your mind, are socialists incapable of running anything or are we organizational masterminds capable of almost anything? I'm going to do you a favour and ascribe this bizarre conspiracy theory to partisan malice rather than the alternative.

The two old line parties have run their course on the East Coast. They have nothing to offer ordinary people. I'm surprised theyre still in power after decades and decades of autocratic rule.

I have taught stats and know all that - it is not that relevant because I have conducted polls (as has Angus Reid) with smaller samples and even higher statistical margin of error with their results being almost exact!! So, while it is significant to some extent, in the grand scheme of things with so much going on, no, it is is not that big a deal.

It intersts me more that in the last election, the NDP's portion of the vote was so much lower and the Tories so much higher.

I do not control results so I will thank you to be as polite as I have tried to be. Sometimes, it IS important to list all the details - this is not one of those. Would I prefer a higher margin or error. Of course- most of us who do this would. But it usually does not occur but I have been correct in every poll I have ever conducted so I stand by my work. I did not so this one but know the people who did and while they are smart enough not to predict too much - other than the NDP is in the lead- (I will say that too but I am too cautious, and surely you note that) to go further. I know NS politics too well to start celebrating. However, there are some auspicious signs that I have never viewed or experienced in my long life in NS politics (I have seen them in NB politics in 1987, ie peole running AWAY from certain politicians and NOT the NDP)- and I have done anything one can think of involving this genre, nothing ever illegal or unethical. I'd quit first! I must say an organizer and I once conducted a poll in 1978 and told a disbelieving Jeremy Ackerman that John Bucanan's Tories would be elected - he opted to disagree He was wrong of course. That is just one example.

That said, I do not need to justify anything to you or anyone else. If you choose to believe in what seems to be wishful thinking - and I know people who do that and that's fine - there is noting wrong with it and it can get one through the day - good luck. However, I do not know why you seem to use the word socialist as if it were a pejorative term. I do not use it much myself. This is NOT the sixties and politics has moved far from the left-right axis we used to exist on. I like to think we are better people than that- whatever party we work for or support. I know many Tories and Liberals and none of them have been quite as negative as you. I guess it's easy to do when no one knows who yo are though there is no such entity as anonymity on the web, as you may know.

As for like minded - I guess you have never been to an NDP convention, lol I attend other meeting out of curiosity and I am stunned, literally stunned at how there is so little debate or discussion at the axctual meeting, so few resolutions with a lot of debate. I found is most disheartening and thought of the family comact which Jospeh Howe rallied against - everything important behind closed doors.

If you want to be IN the sixties, I will quote Bob Dylan though - the times, they are a changin'!

J, I already had the link to Parker. disagree with most of his drivel. Anyone who can be a journalist and then suddenly work for a corporate entity that

was not all that helpful to people dying of cancer in Witney Pier does not strike me as someone with the ethics I subscribe to. I wonder how he sleeps at night. He was complaining about the Tar Ponds and

then he allowed a company to pay him to be their mouthpiece. That just does not go over well with me when human lives and health are involved. Of course, Witney Pier will vote en masse for Gordie Gosse, the respected NDP candidate!