Byelections this fall

Pretty favourable comments in the two local [3] papers about the new NDP candidate, Mark Austin.  He was actually approached by two other parties to run, he says, before agreeing to run for the NDP.  I wonder who they were ...

I've also noticed that the Liberals don't even have candidates in either Québec riding yet, either.

My thinking is that Harper wants the C.C.M.V. by-election to occur soon after the two provincial by-elections in Nova Scotia in Antigonish and Inverness on October 18th, so that the NDP has used up human and financial resources there, and won't have much left over for the federal by-election.

Then again, the NDP provincial government called by-elections to fill vacant seats within 2 weeks of the ridings becoming vacant, while Steven Harper lets some voters go almost 6 months before letting them choose a new MP!

I think that speaks how strong the organizational culture of the Liberal Party is. Even when they are in the dumps as they are in CCMV [provincially and federally], they are always out there talking up prospects. Mark has been involved in the community for some time, so known Liberals will make sure they touch base with him frequently and eventually ask him if he wants to run.

In the NDP we are only that purposeful when we are percieved locally to be winners.

OO, and I read the comments, and almost all were pro Mark in the local papers. Looking at Mark's background in small business, farming and environment, I would suggest that probably the libs and Greens asked him.

The latest media reports indicate the 4 by-elections will be called this Sunday (Oct 4) for an E-Day the 2nd week of November.

And so ends the great federal election panic of 2009.

NDP pickup in NS would be a good portent of things to come.

If so, it's a perfect-storm byelection situation: NW-C is obvious, CCMV's got the Dexter factor, Montmagny et al is affected by the Quebec/Beauce-ian Tory orbit, Hochelaga's "leftish" by nature.  At the very least, if the Liberals score even 2nd, it'll be barely.

But how Grits and NDP will fare relative to each other (and to the Bloc) in Hochelaga after the Outremont/Coderre blowup is a *real* wild card, that's for sure...

Back in the summer of 1987, the NDP won three by-elections: holding Hamilton Mountain and taking St. John's East and Yukon from the Conservatives. It was a happy day to be a New Democrat.

Could we be seing a repeat of that scenario this fall (albeit with a fourth seat that is not likely to be in play for the party)?

The NDP taking three of the four by-elections should be possible, given the individual circumstances in Hochelaga and C.C.M.V. are the most favourable they have ever been for the NDP.

Then again, Harper has the option of setting a date in March, if not later.

In 2003, Paul Martin didn't call the Ottawa Centre by-election until the six months were almost up, and then set the date for over six months later.  That's how afraid he was of Ed Broadbent winning the seat, which would have made for bad optics when it came time for the next election.

Lets go for 4 by 4! (that's pretty rural for yeh all).

The die has been cast, the byelection in all four ridings will be on Nov. 9

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/pm-announces-four-by-electi...

In that G and M article Nik Nanos cites the BC seat as a possible Tory pick up. Is this a possibility, or is he just blowing psephological smoke?

Of course its a "possibility". That riding did go Tory as recently as the 2004 election (by 80 votes) and last election, Dawn Black only won 21,000 to about 19,000 - so it isn't exactly a Vancouver East! That being said, the NDP has by far the best candidate, byelections tend to go against the government, the BC NDP is on a big upswing, the HST is poison and only the NDP is against it and all the polls show the Tories have fallen from the 44% they had in BC in the last election. So while I think the NDP needs to work hard, the NDP has to be considered the favourite.

Who is the candidate, I have forgotten?

City Councillor Fin Donnelly.

I just saw Mulcair on question period say that on Tuesday the NDP will be nominating a really good locally well-known candidate in Montmagny-Li'Islet-Kamouraska and that Jack will be up in Riviere du loup for the meeting and that there will be a real NDP effort there.

good to see, since Jack is more popular than the lib leader.

The NDP is well positioned going in to the NWC byelection. They are against the HST (small "c" conservative vote winner and a blue collar issue) and have a candidate with strong environmental credentials (which will help to eliminate some of the stench of the BC NDP's demagoguery on the carbon tax that might waft over to the HST stance and a small "g" green vote winner). The candidate is also young and well grounded within the community. He is a Coquitlam councillor and Coquitlam is the major part of the riding and is where the NDP typically does worst. Donelly is definitely an asset but the NDP is going to have to bet the farm on this one to make sure it doesn't slip away. Challenges for the NDP will include maintaining their lead among women voters with the Conservatives running a credible female candidate, holding ground in vis min communities, and addressing portions of the riding that have seen property values/development increase.

As much as the NDP will try to avoid it, the economy as an issue is going to figure big in all of the four byelections. Right now, the Conservatives have the lead on this issue. These byelections, if intelligently managed, represent an opportunity to put a serious knick in the Conservatives economic armour.

In the last election, the Liberal vote in NWC totally collapsed to less than 10% and a lot of it went Tory. There is probably a good chance that the Liberals get a bit of a dead cat bounce and win back some of those blue grits who went Tory last time.

Campaigning in MIKR is going to be very cheap so it's worth the NDP putting on a moderate show there, especially if they field a strong candidate. The NDP is already trying to market it as a 4-way race, which is a good tack if not unrealistic.

I'm excited about CCMV but expect a Conservative win. I hope the NDP will hold NWC. I expect gains but no cigar in Hochelaga. The NDP is well positioned, if Paille is the BQ nominee, to make a dash for second. Depending on the Liberals strength, this might start to look like more of three-way race. The NDP can only hope they nominate someone that undermines (and underscores) Paille's conservative and elitist credentials.

A dead cat bounce i definitely possible, especially if Ignatieff spends some time in the riding. He would be well advised to do so if he wants the party to show some life in BC ahead of the next federal election. If the Liberals tank out again, Jack is going to use that as a hammer next time to say that a Liberal vote is a wasted vote- at least in much of the lower mainland.

One of the potential challenges of these four byelections for the NDP is that if they go strictly on the axiom that "all politics is local," they are going to be running assymetric messaging across the country. On the otherhand, if they pick a central theme to hang things on it will probably have to be the economy but that's a major vote loser for the party. In short, it will interesting to see how the NDP manages the competing rural-metro-blue-collar-pastoral-catholic-protestant dominated campaigns.

Byelection campaigns don't have to hang together anything like ridings during a general election.

Plus there's the language difference.  The 2 Quebec ridings are strongly francophone, while the other 2 are about as anglo as you can get language-wise.  Not too many news sources will be covering both very closely.

Fin Donnelly is the favourite and should be able to take NWC. Well recognized name, Coquitlam council poll topper, youthful, energetic, etc.

But also beware of the Cons.

The big issue right now in the Port Moody/Coquitlam part of the riding is the Evergreen Line Skytrain extension of which the feds have already committed $400 million of the $1.2 billion project. And right now it's skating on thin ice considering that there is a $400 million+ shortfall. And that is likely an issue to play into Con hands since it's receiving alot of media attention.

Making this an anti-HST campaign might also not work. The anti-HST sentiment is aimed at the provincial gov't but seems to have recently faded and it's spear-headed by right-wing, so-con, Bill Vander Zalm. Another Con.

The Cons may also say that BC would have a 14% HST, not a 12% HST, if the federal NDP had their way based upon the NDP's opposition to the GST cut from 7% to 5%. It's a double-edged sword.

And lastly remember the Vancouver Quadra by-election result from March, 2008. Everyone expected that to be a slam-dunk Lib hold with their ~11,500 vote margin in the 2006 election but the Cons came within 153 votes of winning Quadra! The Cons strangely seem to get their vote out during federal by-elections in BC.

And that was when the Cons and Libs were both tied at 33% federally in BC.

http://www.mustelgroup.com/pdf/20080424.pdf

The Cons candidate placed second on Port Moody council during the 2008 municipal elections and she's a female, which might play in her favour. The Cons deliberate strategy is to again play down their prospect of winning the seat in order to get out the vote as they previously did in Quadra.

Again, the NDP will likely take the seat but it's not going to be a cakewalk considering that the Cons came within 3% of taking the seat away from Dawn in 2008.

i notice that the Tory candidate in NWC is a municipal politician in Port Moody. Port Moddy is very, very small municipality and on top of that only one half of it is in NWC (the rest is in James Moore's riding). I think that only about 10% of the riding is Port Moody, over half is Coquitlam and about a third is New Westminster.

I agree that the NDP will have to work hard, but the fact is that the NDP has much more a "machine" to fight a byelection than do the federal Liberals in Quadra. Also, the Liberals ran a very weak candidate in Quadra in Joyce Murray and they were very over-confident. I think the Tories also did well there by heavioly targetting the Chinese vote which is quite substantial in Quadra. NWC is pretty WASP by Lower Mainland standards.

From an earlier thread:

In other words Port Moody is ~12% of the riding and the NDP typically cleans up in the New Westminster section. This is a race that looks great on paper for the NDP, but they will still have to fight and hard at that. NWC is a swing riding.

I am really excited about the possibilities for the NDP in Hochelaga. The situation is strikingly similar to that in Outremont in 2007, except swapping the Liberals and the Bloc.

Although Hochelaga has the reputation of a Bloc stronghold, I understand that most Bloc activists are furious about the parachuting, much as the Liberal riding association in Outremont did not appreciate Jocelyn Coulon's being named candidate -- especially since Paillé is quite right-wing, and much of the Bloc support in this working-class riding (especially under very left-wing Réal Ménard) is based on progressivism rather than just straight-up nationalism or partisanship.

Also, since the NDP candidacy is very high-profile and we can look forward to a lot of resources being put into it, people who might normally vote Liberal may well move to the NDP if they see that as finally having the chance to get rid of the Bloc -- much as Bloc support went to the NDP in Outremont to break the Liberal stronghold.

Add this to the fact that as president of the Shell refinery union in an area with a lot of unionists, Rocheleau is high-profile and respected within the riding.

It will be somewhat more difficult than Outremont, but it is very doable. Look for the NDP to put plenty of resources into this campaign. (I understand their signs are already up and the office is opening tomorrow.)

Thanks for the local colour, montrealais.  I hope you will keep us up to date with any developments.  That one would be very sweet indeed.

In New Westminister--Coquitlam the Green got 3,574 votes last time, 7.2%. In a by-election the vague "Green" appeal is reduced, and strategic voting is more plausible. Donnelly should pick up a good chunk of those votes.

In Hochelaga Rocheleau is not only high-profile as president of the Shell refinery union in an area with a lot of unionists, but he is also Associate President of the NPD-Quebec. Won't a lot of labour activists see him as one of their own, a star to be promoted?

In fairness to others, Rocheleau is not the only star. Alexandre Boulerice got the highest vote percent in the east end, in Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie, I think he was elected federal party associate-president at the Halifax convention, and he is a Quebec Party Vice-President and a CUPE/SCFP leader. François Grégoire in Laurier-Sainte-Marie and Daniel Breton in Jeanne-Le Ber also got a slightly higher percent than Rocheleau.

I think Donnelly looks strong to hold NWC for the NDP but it will be a tough fight with the Conservatives.  If Rocheleau can finish 2nd in Hochelaga that would be a major breakthrough, but it is doable.  We'll see who the "local star" is for the NDP in MIKRDL, I still think the BQ will walk away with that one, with the Cons finishing a suprisingly strong 2nd.  The one I can't read is CCMV - hard to say how much of the Dexter honeymoon will translate to a federal by-election.  Kory Tenicke, ex-Harper communications director, said the NDP has a good chance in that riding but he may just be lowering expectations - I know many babblers a couple of months ago said that CCMV would be a slam-dunk Conservative gain. 

Are you predicting the NDP will beat the Liberals in Hochelaga?

I would be astonished if they didn't.

I don't remember that, but its easy to forget people spouting foolishness. And it wouldn't have been anyone out here. CCMV has to be easily the hardest to predict of the 4.

It seems quite obvious that Rocheleau will finish at least second. He's an excellent candidate and I can certainly seee him connecting in the riding and even swinging a lot of disaffected leftie Bloquistes. He'll do well.

My problem is that the Bloc (admittedly a progressive and popular MP, Real Menard) got almost 50% last time to Rocheleau's 17%. I think he can boost that significantly, position himself as the real challenger and court voters on both sides of the sovereignty issue. So I can see him set up to win in the next federal election, but I'm not convinced that 50% support can be overcome in one by-election, even with a lousy candidate.

I certainly hope I'm proven wrong, and I'll be supporting his campaign all the way. As I said, even a loss will be a victory in establishing his seriousness and building support for the next election.

Interestingly, Global had a great short interview last evening with Donnelly,  and with no other party's candidate.

Now I can't decide whether they favour Donnelly, or have just covered him in the early stages so they can ignore him later, and still say they gave him air time.

But I take heart, as at least now he is at the top of people's minds going into this by-election.

A blue Grit I know voted Tory the last time in 1988. He has voted Liberal in every election since. His car is important for his business, and he really doesn't like McGuinty here in Ontario, as McGuinty raised his taxes. He was happy with the Tory budget earlier this year as it put more money in his pocket. Recently he said to me that he didn't like Harper as a person, but he said he was a good leader and Prime Minister. He is fairly certain Ignatieff is going to lose. I am pretty sure he will either not vote at all, or vote Tory.

Quebec notwithstanding, I think Harper is putting the Tory coalition back together again.

I live next to CCMV and today drove through Truro and the southern end of Colchester.

Conservatives were obviously more than ready. Number of signs went up on the weekend [normally not that fast in NS.

Even more of a surprise, a brochure was in the mailboxes today. Which means it had to have been dropped off on Thursday, and at least several days lead time to be ready to do that. Do you suppose someone tipped them off?

More pernicious, I'm pretty sure that brochure does not count for the spending limit. There's no restriction on spending outside the writ, or what kind of spending. And just a coincidence of course that it arrives at homes after the writ drops.

On the brighter side, the NDP can play that game too. The NDP has the only officially nominated candidate in Hochelaga and apparently the second that the byelection was called on Sunday an army of NDP volunteers plastered every bit of public space in Hochelaga with posters for Rocheleau. They obviously had the posters all ready to go the moment the starying gun was fired!

Same for the New West riding, perhaps the only riding the Cons are going hard after is CCMV

Does anyone know what is the website address for the NDP BC by-election campaign office?

Thanks.

Check out: http://www.findonnelly.ca/

Why is Paille running in Montreal? Wasn't his MNA seat in Quebec City? Aren't all but two of the Conservatives 10 Quebec MPs from the Quebec City region? Sounds like Paille wanted to be a Conservative but as a separatist they wouldn't take his application.

The other thing that's occurring to me is that the Bloc have to run left in Hochelaga, but run right in MIKR where the Conservatives also have a decent chance.  The nomination fight in Hochelaga may be taking place in that context.

Thanks Stock.

According to Pundits Guide, it's Francois Lapointe:

 UPDATE: The name of the candidate is François Lapointe. He was the only candidate to run for the nomination, and will be acclaimed on Tuesday, a reader writes to advise. He works as a project manager with the literacy group L'ABC des Hauts Plateaux Montmagny-L'Islet, according to LaVoixduSud.com.

http://www.punditsguide.ca/ [49]

Merci bekayne.

There may yet be no by-elections this fall, and a GE instead, it is all up to the Liberals

Its hard to follow all these possible strategic moves and their vrious plausible permutations. But I think in the end its just Harper keeping both tracks open: election or no election. Wait and see, simultaneouly prepare the ground for both.

If he continues to not want an election, the HST bill will not come to a vote until late November... if the opposition parties want to wear a Christmas election, go for it.

If he smells what can be expected to be a majority outcome- not just a possibility- then we may see that vote moved up. But that would mean a vote in a month and even with the current polling uptick for the Cons, that would be an unusually fast shift and solidification in voter intentions... at a time when there is no indication of such volatility, and has not been for over 3 years.

And by the way, if the Cons change their minds and want an election, it would be in the first week of November... and very likely a repeat of Saturday/Sunday before the byelection date. Talking it up for about a week before that. 

Which really means, only about 3 weeks before they would need to make their final decision if they wanted to go for a general.

Why wouldn't the HST change simply be part of the federal budget in Feb?

Probably has to pass a motion, other than finacial ways and means.

They will be looking after  the collection, and administration, in fact they already are.

But Ignatieff has promised McGuinty and Campbell that he'll support the implementation of the HST, so I can't see him wanting to die in that trench.

Maybe that is why they have now stated they are going to go Bill by Bill?

Iggy walking the election plank alone

Centrist said,

"The big issue right now in the Port Moody/Coquitlam part of the riding is the Evergreen Line Skytrain extension of which the feds have already committed $400 million of the $1.2 billion project. And right now it's skating on thin ice considering that there is a $400 million+ shortfall. And that is likely an issue to play into Con hands since it's receiving alot of media attention."

The part of Coquitlam that would be served by the Evergreen Line is not in this riding. This is only a minor issue affecting the Port Moody part of this riding.

V. Jara said,

"As much as the NDP will try to avoid it, the economy as an issue is going to figure big in all of the four byelections. Right now, the Conservatives have the lead on this issue. These byelections, if intelligently managed, represent an opportunity to put a serious knick in the Conservatives economic armour."

The economy is the big change since the last Federal election, and that will work in the NDP's favour. Its brutal on the ground here. There's many more layoffs than you might realize because employers are typically small-to-medium sized businesses, laying off a few dozen here and a few dozen there until it all adds up. The unemployment stats don't totally show because many don't qualify for EI or people are still grabbing bits of work and living on reduced incomes. Household debts are huge, so people are silently struggling, keeping the wolf from the door.

I think Donnelly will win by a wider margin.

That's not correct. The Evergreen Line will comprise 5 stations, 4 of which are within NWC (Burquitlam, Port Moody, Ioco, and Coquitlam Central). The 5th station (Douglas College) is within James Moore's riding, which also encompasses the wealthy enclaves of Heritage Mountain (Port Moody) and Westwood Plateau (Coquitlam). 

That said, Fin is bright and I'm sure that he will be able to manage the messaging on the issue.

I understand Coquitlam Central is in Moore's riding, north of the Barnet Hwy. I forgot about Burquitlam which is on the western border of the riding with Burnaby Douglas (but the Evergreen has less affect here because its already fairly close to the current Lougheed Mall station). The Port Moody stations (Port Moody and Ioco) are in the northern sliver of the riding.

The Evergreen really means the most to that part of Coquitlam north of the Barnet Hwy, thus in Moore's riding.

Regardless, I don't see Evergreen as a big issue unless some specific new controversy arises. People kind of doubt it will happen in the forseeable future.

Plus I believe the feds have already contributed funding to the Evergreen line, and the province has made a down payment as well - the key missing piece is the Translink contribution and they are already in a big hole caused by Gordo and his gang.  I agree this likey won't be a big issue in the NWC by-election.

The Green candidate is out there campaigning in NWC.  Gotta love Twitter.  Grammar is optional.

"RebeccaHelps Canvassing is going good. Because its a by-election voter can vote for me/Green and not worry about who will form the govt!"

learning how to use twitter 101 - had to read 2x to get her drift.

Check out the latest news about Hochelaga. Gilles Duceppe meet Denis Coderre!! Its all in Le Devoir and the Pundits Guide website has helpfully translated the story into English!

"A candidate for the Bloc Québécois nomination is accusing leader Gilles Duceppe's office of trying to pressure him to drop out of the race, in advance of tomorrow night's contested nomination meeting to pick the party's candidate for next month's by-election in this east-end Montréal riding, reports Kathleen Levesque of Le Devoir this afternoon. The report has sparked the NDP's candidate to ask why the Bloc would "borrow the strategies of the Liberal Party" and whether this represents the "Coderrisation du Bloc québécois".

25-year Hochelaga resident and "confirmed sovereignist and social democrat [66]", Jean Baribeau [67], has been running [68] for the Bloc nomination since June. He told Le Devoir that he received a telephone call from a staff member in Duceppe's office Tuesday morning asking him to step aside, saying they wanted the Thursday meeting to be a big media event introducing Duceppe's endorsed candidate and recently-appointed economic advisor, former PQ Industry Minister Daniel Paillé.

Citing Duceppe's commitment of last month [69] to hold an open nomination, Baribeau is refusing to stand down, and now refusing to return the calls of Duceppe himself, complaining that the Bloc has already been introducing Paillé as their candidate, and that they've sent in an experienced Bloc organizer to run his nomination campaign. Another nomination candidate, Benoît Dumuy, who was an aide to the former Bloc M.P. in the riding, Réal Ménard, and who had also been selling memberships since June, was already persuaded by Duceppe in early September to withdraw from the race, and a fourth reported candidate Thérèse Ste-Marie also appears to be out of the race now.

Meanwhile the NDP's Jean-Claude Rocheleau, who was renominated in August [70], issued a news release [71] this afternoon "extending a hand to Bloquistes who are upset" about the "less than democratic practices" of their party, and also chiding the Liberals for "le parachutage dans Hochelaga d’un économiste de Harvard"."

I love this: "Est-ce la Coderrisation du Bloc québécois? » se demande le candidat néo-démocrate.

The NDP candidate in Hochelega so far seems to be mainly attacking the choice of the potential BQ and Liberal candidates.  Rather than talking about issues that affect the riding or people's lives, he is talking mainly about their nomination processes.

Sour grapes.

Lets see. If the local media is talking about the candidate kerfuffle right now and Rocheleau talked to them about substantive issues, do you suppose they would be quoting him?

Besides if you look at Rocheleau's website you'll see that he's been talking about lots of other issues.

You can dismiss "nomination process issues" all you want, but it seems to me that a "nomination process issue" in Outremont has sent the Liberals into atailspin in Quebec that they may never recover from!

Me too, especially because the neologism sounds a lot like the word English word cauterization and the French word cautérisation:

Cauterization is a medical term describing the burning of part of the body to remove or close off a part of it, which destroys some tissue, in an attempt to mitigate damage or bleeding, remove an undesired growth, or minimize other potential medical harmful possibilities such as infections.

It's pretty minor in the scheme of things actually.

If you think that the consequences from the Outremont debacle are so minor, maybe you'd like to tell us what you define as being "major".

Paul Martin and his henchmen also sustained permanent damage over the way they tried to destroy Sheila Copps.

I recently heard Francoise Boivin speak about her journey from being a Liberal to being in the NDP. She said the best thing about being in the NDP and not being a Liberal was being able to wake in the morning and not have 20 knives stuck in her back!

BTW: It seems that the NDP is taking Hochelaga seriously enough to have Layton devote the better part of tomorrow to campaigning in the riding. According to JC Rocheleau's facebook page, he is mainstreeting and passing out pamphlets with Jack in the late afternoon and then having a campaign launch event with speeches and music in the evening.

...so the Bloc makes an idiotic misstep in this highly populist riding, bringing up legitimate questions about its commitment to democratic process and its probable nominee's fitness to represent the riding's main demographic, and you expect the NDP not to make hay with it? Why, exactly? Just to be nice?

Apparently, there is a sentiment about that people cannot be trusted with freedom. It is not a prevalent thought process, I have ever found in either the NDP or  even Conservative people I know personally, though.

Hey Debator, I see your candidate in Hochelaga wants to get REALLY friendly with the riding ...

http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/10/08/please-allow-me-to-introduce-myself/

Usually the Liberals wait until *after* they get elected to do that to voters ;-)

Oh my, OO.....LMAO.

Here are some maps from the four contested ridings for you to enjoy: 

Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley (Nova Scotia)

Hochelaga [87] (Quebec)

Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup [88] (Quebec)

Thanks Krago, I'm going to spend a bit more time looking them over.  Did you make them yourself?

Daniel Paillé got the Bloc nomination in Hochelaga I read, but I don't know much more about what happened at the meeting.

Yes, I created the maps using poll-by-poll data and GIS shapefiles from Elections Canada.  It's what I do for fun.

If there's a specific riding you're interested in, please send me an e-mail or PM.

I should probably cross-post this to the thread that said the NDP website was not ready for the by-elections, because look what just popped up ...

http://www.unite4change.ca/

http://www.lepouvoirdechanger.ca/ [93]

 I do like that they're revising the Unite 4 Change theme, by the way. Perfect for when the Libs are in disarray.

and fits the narrative of 4 - hat trick plus 1

Excellent.

A fine crop of candidates. Still pretty low in the diversity category, though :(

Two francophones, two anglophones.

Two with hair, two bald.

Two male, two -- uh, oh -- male.

All 4 selected by their local riding associations!

Democratic nominations.

Donnelly is also very young, which is great to see.

Jack is campaigning hard in the early days of the by-elections - he was in NWC today for an HST town hall with Fin Donnelly and some door-knocking in New Westminster.  If we can win NWC, come 2nd in Hochelaga and either win or be competitive in CCMV, I think we can call that a good result for the NDP.  Some pundits are saying the Cons could win both CCMV and MIKR...so let's pull out all the stops to make sure we keep NWC for the orange team!

WCL, I would never want to make the mistake of being overconfident - but I get the impression from afar that the NDP ought to be quite solidly favoured in NWC. What do you think since you're closer?

Incidenatlly, let's take a little trip down memory lane to a previous byelection in Hochelaga back in 1975. Trudeau was in his heyday winning almost every seat in Quebec by gigantic margins. His old friend Gerard Pelletier (who always looked like he should have been cast as a maitre d' in a snobby French restaurant) resigned his seat in Hochelaga to become ambassador to UNESCO. Trudeau decided to take his old friend Pierre Juneau who was then chair of the CRTC and make him a cabinet minister and parachute him into the looming byelection in Hochelaga. It became increasingly controversial that the Liberals parachuted some bureaucrat with no ties to the riding. The PCs ran a little known City of Montreal civil servant named Jacques Lavoie who had lived all his life in the riding and made a big deal about being a local boy etc... there ended up being a huge backlash against the parachuting of Juneau and Lavoie ended up beating him by a wide margin!

Maybe this time, Paille plays the role of Juneau, while the NDP's JC Rocheleau play's the part of Lavoie! 

Yeah, Jack received prominent coverage in the local news market yesterday. Firstly, Metro Vancouver's largest radio station, CKNW, played parts of Jack's speech at his town hall meeting in New Westminster yesterday during its hourly newscast.

And then the largest tv station in the market, Global BC, also gave good coverage on Jack's town hall meeting with Fin, albeit FWIW it mentioned that only 50 people showed up an that the anti-HST campaign seems to be fading.

And to top it off, Fin is receiving some good newspaper coverage. I have not seen one news item (tv, radio, or newspaper) covering any of the other candidates so far!

I still say that NWC is going to be a close race and the NDP is going to have to fight hard but Fin is still the best and most prominent candidate and because of that he will be able to take it over the top.

well it is thanksgiving weekend - so folks are up to other things this weekend like celebrating "take the First Nations land day".

American Thanksgiving is tied in with the Mayflower and Europeans colonizing the "new world" etc... Canadian Thanksgiving is just a harvest festival and has none of the origins that it has in the US.

Well Stock, in my past while doing school. a First Nations person (who lives in Canada) wished me that. So although it may have origins in the USA, this "thanksgiving harvest festival" has additional connotations for some First Nations people.

I realize that some First Nations may feel that way, but I'm just saying that i think they are projecting the mythology of Thanksgiving in the US onto Canadian Thanksgiving - which has a totally different origin and began as a reenactment of harvest festivals that were common in the Fall in England and France.

Article on NWC campaign

It will be interesting to see if the HST can really be the issue. I guess it might if its well tied into the whole "economy and jobs" thing.

The main thing that stuck out in this article is the weakness of the Liberal candidate:

Lee, who lives in New Westminster, said byelections typically see a backlash against the ruling party, and he expects that the NDP's Donnelly will also be adversely affected.

"The governing party is usually punished during byelections, and with Jack Layton's NDP supporting the Conservative government (during the recent non-confidence vote), I'm hearing there is some resentment against the NDP in this riding," he said. "And we can't forget that it was because of an NDP member resigning that we have this byelection."

Liberals have big credibility problems, and lying like this doesn't help. To those of us who do follow politics, we know the NDP abstained on the confidence motion. They have never actually supported the Conservative government. Also, candidate statements that begin with "I'm hearing" naturally make me skeptical. "Hearing" from whom? Campaigns are a little bubble world and its pathetic when candidates confuse that with reality.

If New Westers were pissy about Black resigning, they had a chance to punish her and the NDP, in the provincial election.

yeah, the Liberals are really grasping at straws if they think that will have any "legs" whatsoever.

Amateur hour. One of the best media opportunities he'll get, and he blathers.

The Liberal vote collapsing in this kind of riding is not good for the NDP.

HST is an issue and Fen is pinning it on Harper.

ETA: forgot my new closing line

I've always had a hard time figuring out whether the Liberal vote in B.C. tends to collapse to the Tories or to the Liberals. In places like Alberta or Saskatchewan, a collapse in the Liberal vote is usually good news for the NDP (viz. Linda Duncan), but if the last couple of elections are any indication, it seems that Liberal 'switchers' in B.C. are more likely to go Tory than NDP (eg. Vancouver-Kingsway, Burnaby-Douglas, Vancouver Island North).

Looking at the 2008 results for this riding, the Liberal vote was essentially cut in half from 23.5% to approximately 11,5%. The Tories saw their vote increase by 6%, the Greens by 4% and the NDP only 3.5% - in other words, Liberal 'switchers' preferred the Tories by a 2-to-1 margin over the NDP. I think we can probably safely assume the Greens will not be a factor in this seat, and therefore the Tories will be the primary beneficiaries of any further collapse in the Liberal vote. The ideal 'sweet spot' would be for the Liberals to get around 20% of the vote - enough to split the vote with the Tories but not enough to actually win.

I think the Liberal vote made its big collapse in NWC last year when it plummeted from 23% to 11%. It really can't go much lower so I'm not concerned that the Liberals are going to get 5% and that it will all go Tory. I think 11% is about the floor for the Liberals there. Also, its worth noting that the Tory candidate who came close last year (and then got rewarded with a lifetime sinecure in the Senate) was a Korean-Canadian who probably got a lot of votes from the Korean and Chinese communities. This time the Tory candidate is a WASP and the Liberal is a rightwing Korean-Canadian. I suspect that what few votes he gets will be from people who would othersie vote Tory. The NDP may also benefit from the collapse of the Green vote in that seat.

Finally, its worth noting that in byelections, local candidates suddenly become a vastly bigger factor than in a general election and by all accounts, the NDP has easily the most attractive candidate.

With the BQ running Paille and the Liberals running a management school type and the Cons running, well, anyone...the Quebec unions ought to really step up and show some support for Rochelau. He is clearly the only pro-worker candidate in the Hochelaga byelection.

Somebody needs to throw out the challenge to the Quebec labour movement. They're letting a brother down.

I'd really love to hear some "inside scoop" on what is going on in Hochelaga. From following JC Rocheleau's facebook pace/website he sure seems to have an active campaign and I notice that Layton is spending another day there later this week. So far the media seems to be ignoring that byelection and treating itr as a done deal - probably just as well, if the NDP even comes in a solid second and displaces the Liberals, it will come as a surprise to the punditocracy!

continued here with stockholm's last post